Opinion 2024 AFL SuperCoach Planning Thread

[Darkie]

Just looking at the bottom end, some names that jumped out at me:
* Jhye Clark - if Geelong are ever going to regenerate their side, it's now. Will be base price. (1@14)
* Elijah Hewett (13@46 would make him what, $250k or so?)
* Paddy Dow - probably only if he ends up getting traded (9@53)

Guys who might be underpriced?
* Matt Kennedy, especially if he holds DEF status. (14@75)
* George Hewett (18@78)
* Bailey Smith (19@80)
* Jack Steele? Can I let myself get burned by him again? (19@95)
* Touk Miller (12@98)

42 players have an average of 100+ this season. That feels low, but I don't have any historical data to cross check.

Based on SC Gold, the number of players averaging 100+ (with no game count constraint) are:

2022 42+
2021 44+
2020 59+ (shorter games => more players with extreme averages)
2019 38+
2018 35+
2017 23+
2016 23+
2015 21+
2014 20+

The + reflects the fact that the system only displays current players - so someone like GAJ doesn’t contribute to the above numbers at all.

Other than the 2020 outlier, which is easily explained, and the big jump in 2018 (not sure what happened here?), the numbers are remarkably stable year on year, given that each year we have (former) premos retire and therefore drop out.

42 initially struck me as low, but looks pretty consistent with the last two years.

 

[Darkie]

Using the same source, I can see averages going back to 2006.

Without looking, which current players also registered SC points in that year?

 

[Chumpion]

Using the same source, I can see averages going back to 2006.

Without looking, which current players also registered SC points in that year?

Only one I’d have a stab at is Pendlebury. But I’m sure there are others!

 

[Connoisseur]

Using the same source, I can see averages going back to 2006.

Without looking, which current players also registered SC points in that year?

Only one I’d have a stab at is Pendlebury. But I’m sure there are others!

L Franklin
S Hurn

 

[Shannon]

Using the same source, I can see averages going back to 2006.

Without looking, which current players also registered SC points in that year?

Travis Boak maybe, Hurn & Buddy?

 

[BomberSam]

That only becomes relevant if he leaves Melbourne and goes to a club to play as number 1 ruck.

I'm aware of this and that's the only reason I'm asking. Would be very hard not to pick as a R/F.

 

[Chumpion]

L Franklin
S Hurn

Makes me feel so old knowing I’m around the same age as these blokes and I groan getting off the couch while they’re still elite professional athletes!

 

[GrainFedBeef]

I'm aware of this and that's the only reason I'm asking. Would be very hard not to pick as a R/F.

Grundy has been owned over last few years, a lead ruck and still disappointed. As R/F the risk will be mitigated. Would be a lock if he moves on a pure could make $150k and upside if he is a keeper.

 

[TBG]

I'm aware of this and that's the only reason I'm asking. Would be very hard not to pick as a R/F.

Sorry mate. I'm not sure if Grundy played enough forward minutes for the season because he played a few games as number 1 ruck when Gawn was out? If he moves to a side where he is number 1 ruck and he does get R/F status he will be a no brainer to pick next season at F1/F2.

 

[Darkie]

@Chumpion and @Connoisseur have it!

 

[Merv Neagle]

Witherden should average 100 next season with Hurn retirement.

 

[froffershanners]

Witherden should average 100 next season with Hurn retirement.

Thought I'd dive a bit deeper into this narrative to see if there was a trend there.

Looking at 2023 we can see a clear bump in Witherden's average when Hurn isn't around.



Then looking at the kick in stats I noticed that Duggan has taken quite a lot as well so this was still affecting Witherden's score.

When looking at kick in stats and how they correlate to Witherden's score it was quite stark.



Will be interesting whether Witherden slots into the kick in role with Duggan playing further up the ground next year.

If Witherden looks like being the main rebounder then he will present some very good value based off these numbers.

 

[HimothyTaranto]

As everyone else mentioned, if Grundy manages to sweeten a R/F DPP and is traded somewhere as the primary ruckman (cough, Port), he looms as a decent pick for sure.

I haven't been able to determine how much time he's spent forward even through his heatmaps but I'd say he's still some far way off getting DPP. Not entirely sure how SuperCoach will determine if he gets DPP or not next year.

His scores definitely correlate with more ruck contests attended. When he attends less than 50% of the ruck contests, he's averaging 78.5 points through 10 games. When he attends 50% or more, he's averaging 115.6 (however, his TOG is higher through these games too) through 5 games this year. Also, one of those games was against Wet Toast.

Through those 10 games with less than 50% of ruck contests attended, he's sitting at a measly 66.5% time on ground. Through the 5 games with more than 50% of ruck contests attended, he's sitting at 79.2%.

Just for those who think he might've "fallen off" or along the likes - simply put, he just needs to be a primary ruckman and just needs to play more. 🤷‍♂️

 

[Merv Neagle]

Thought I'd dive a bit deeper into this narrative to see if there was a trend there.

Looking at 2023 we can see a clear bump in Witherden's average when Hurn isn't around.

View attachment 60919

Then looking at the kick in stats I noticed that Duggan has taken quite a lot as well so this was still affecting Witherden's score.

When looking at kick in stats and how they correlate to Witherden's score it was quite stark.

View attachment 60920

Will be interesting whether Witherden slots into the kick in role with Duggan playing further up the ground next year.

If Witherden looks like being the main rebounder then he will present some very good value based off these numbers.

Outstanding analysis

 

[Professor]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1695056785877414210

View: https://twitter.com/Empr_X/status/1695056785877414210

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1695057284894716203

View: https://twitter.com/Empr_X/status/1695057284894716203

 

[BigRuss]

Reckon there’s a few easy picks for next year. Ridley if he looks to have that same role he had late this year, Young with a pre season as a mid and Sicily if they secure a tall to play on the Gorillas through trade will pick themselves.

Oliver & Bont just so you don’t have to worry about bringing them in. Brayshaw with a slight discount after a slow start and a fit Walsh makes a pretty stock standard Mid line.

English & Grundy or Gawn depending on Grundys movements.

Forwards is anyone’s guess at this stage. We’ll lose the top 8 from this year which seems more than most seasons. Himmelberg & JHF if they still qualify make sense. Macrae back in a decent role, which probably means Smith has moved to Geelong as expected making him a decent pick too.

Game will be won in initial selection of the forward line I reckon.

 

[FlatTrackBully]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1695056785877414210

View: https://twitter.com/Empr_X/status/1695056785877414210

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1695057284894716203

View: https://twitter.com/Empr_X/status/1695057284894716203

Are Quaynors numbers right? If they are he’s an absolute lock. Averaging 73.9 on the app.

 

[KLo30]

Are Quaynors numbers right? If they are he’s an absolute lock. Averaging 73.9 on the app.

No, he is going to be around $400K.

 

[freowho]

Hayden Young and Tarryn Thomas.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

As everyone else mentioned, if Grundy manages to sweeten a R/F DPP and is traded somewhere as the primary ruckman (cough, Port), he looms as a decent pick for sure.

I haven't been able to determine how much time he's spent forward even through his heatmaps but I'd say he's still some far way off getting DPP. Not entirely sure how SuperCoach will determine if he gets DPP or not next year.

His scores definitely correlate with more ruck contests attended. When he attends less than 50% of the ruck contests, he's averaging 78.5 points through 10 games. When he attends 50% or more, he's averaging 115.6 (however, his TOG is higher through these games too) through 5 games this year. Also, one of those games was against Wet Toast.

Through those 10 games with less than 50% of ruck contests attended, he's sitting at a measly 66.5% time on ground. Through the 5 games with more than 50% of ruck contests attended, he's sitting at 79.2%.

Just for those who think he might've "fallen off" or along the likes - simply put, he just needs to be a primary ruckman and just needs to play more. 🤷‍♂️

If Gawn was pushing 35% fwd, it makes sense that Grundy should be closer to 50-60% fwd. RC he looks to have attended 40%, Must be a "fwd" when Gawn is attending 60% of ruck contests you would expect. Would be surprised if not DPP.