Opinion 2024 AFL SuperCoach Planning Thread
- Thread starter MC's Mix
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Brodie Grundy - Will he be a keeper or a stepping stone?
Brodie Grundy Supercoach Statistics (footywire.com)
- Will he reach premium status like his bygone years?
Brodie Grundy Supercoach Statistics (footywire.com)
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My first attempt at a side.
Think Sicily or Stewart will end being D1 for me and then will look at Daicos as an early upgrade. Really like Young if the midfield role sticks which early signs point to yes, Sheezel and Ridley also in consideration around that price. Ed Richards in there for now and I don't love the pick as I think he can improve but not enough to make the top echelon, also don't mind Wanganeen-Milera at that price point.
Dawson at M1 may be a bit crazy but it is only January so why not. Of those above him in price and not playing the OR I think Bont or Laird will likely end up M1. Hard to ignore LDU's finish to the year but also hard to ignore the games missed last season. Did play 20+ the two years before that though. Brayshaw almost my first picked for the year with his slow start to the season last year. Parish may not have the ceiling of the rest but had a fairly interrupted year last year so if all goes well leading into the season feel he is underpriced. Steele there purely based on value but not sold on the pick.
Rucking hell am I right. The OR situation has definitely made this harder than it should be. Gawn-Grundy seems a no brainer but hard to weigh up with the early byes now. Really like Marshall as a pick and finding it hard to pay up for English but seems like there is zero competition there so maybe that is the best move. Darcy a flyer at this point and don't mind the thought of Xerri as a stepping stone but $400k is a lot for that.
Slim pickings up forward, think of Macrae and Daniel I am more sold on Daniel at this stage but one of them likely to be my F1 unless Jackson gets an expanded ruck role. Not many others jumping off the page here and maybe will look to spending the cash elsewhere.
How many are going to bypass Touk Miller? I'd like to pick him as my M4 as I think he's way underpriced by approximately $100k+ but he has a horrible bye being round 3 &14. He was averaging 115 before going down with his knee last year after averaging I think 120 the previous year. Surely he's in GC best mid set up with Anderson & Rowell.
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I think English is more likely to end up in our teams than not. Can Gawn sustain the output unless maybe Fullerton backs up harder and if so, will he leak more points to English. Grundy has to be better, is he the beast he once was, does the smaller SCG ground help or hinder (could be better if the tightness of the ground leads to more RC's). Hard to ignore the value of Grawndy yet there may be an opportunity where we switch, if injuries haven't decimated our teams like last year.
by passing for now although on the watch screen. owned him for that one game, was terrible. Didn't hit his straps when back. Dimma should help as he doesn't use midfielders to tag. Although with Flanders, Humphries, Rowell and Anderson, do we see a bulldogs style high scoring midfield or do they eat away at each other points, overlaying Dimma doesn't use a high possession midfield gameplay. Will need to see something in pre season and OR.
Walsh on the radar, injury prone, had him last year, looks under priced, huge talent.
by passing for now although on the watch screen. owned him for that one game, was terrible. Didn't hit his straps when back. Dimma should help as he doesn't use midfielders to tag. Although with Flanders, Humphries, Rowell and Anderson, do we see a bulldogs style high scoring midfield or do they eat away at each other points, overlaying Dimma doesn't use a high possession midfield gameplay. Will need to see something in pre season and OR.
Walsh on the radar, injury prone, had him last year, looks under priced, huge talent.
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But the incorporation of terminology such as “injury prone” means that we must be thinking scientifically about it, otherwise if it used as a blanket term, does it have any meaning or importance? It may be applicable to his situation and I do not have knowledge in this area as to whether it is suitable or not but merely more of a reminder not to automatically dismiss players or for it be used as a key component of decision making more than the ability to outperform their price relative to players around a similar price range on the same or other lines.
Last season people avoided English as they were trying to claim that an extended absence due to influenza and concussion from the prior season contributed to him being classified as ”injury prone” which was deemed to far outweigh any possible scoring improvement at his price point possibly overlooking or understating the inherent risk for a player in his position or game style.
Pretty predictable that people will claim Player X is injury prone because they didn’t play 22 games in the prior season and then claim there is no issue in the following season after they have played 22 matches. Then they miss a game in the following season and the cycle continues for the remainder of their career without considering the average longevity of a player in this profession or the average amount of games missed/injuries suffered throughout the career of the average player and that any injury no matter the severity will always hamper them throughout their career without consideration of the recurrence rate.
Last season people avoided English as they were trying to claim that an extended absence due to influenza and concussion from the prior season contributed to him being classified as ”injury prone” which was deemed to far outweigh any possible scoring improvement at his price point possibly overlooking or understating the inherent risk for a player in his position or game style.
Pretty predictable that people will claim Player X is injury prone because they didn’t play 22 games in the prior season and then claim there is no issue in the following season after they have played 22 matches. Then they miss a game in the following season and the cycle continues for the remainder of their career without considering the average longevity of a player in this profession or the average amount of games missed/injuries suffered throughout the career of the average player and that any injury no matter the severity will always hamper them throughout their career without consideration of the recurrence rate.
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Absolutely fair comments Connoisseur.
Interestingly, where does Lachie Whitfield now sit after playing 24 games last season, looks like he missed two games. Played 17-19 games from prior 5 seasons. Some of the injury tag issue is his slim build leading to injuries from contact.
Sam Walsh is another, 15-22 games over regular season for last 5.
Interestingly, where does Lachie Whitfield now sit after playing 24 games last season, looks like he missed two games. Played 17-19 games from prior 5 seasons. Some of the injury tag issue is his slim build leading to injuries from contact.
Sam Walsh is another, 15-22 games over regular season for last 5.
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Version 1.1 - 18k left over
Daicos - Just going to bite the bullet & start him. Will only get better. 2 byes + Finn is a worry but I don’t like Stewart/Sicily over him they are getting older.. LOCK
Sheezel - Love watching this kid play all class & will only get better. You’d think North will play him half back & through the midfield no point plonking him fwd if the ball isn’t getting down there much. LOCK
Young - Playing more midfield which is very appealing backend of 23 4x scores of 110+ organic improvement = LOCK
Dawson - Love this pick 15x scores over 110 last year think as captain with another pre season under Burgess will only improve Crows are my big tip for top 8/top 4 - if he can clean up his kicking 120+ not out of the question
Butters - Love watching this kid play he is a special midfielder to watch - his kamikaze attack does worry me with his slight frame but the bye situation/natural improvement outweighs this easily I’d take 115-120 avg anyday
Serong - Had him last year was ultra consistent ceiling does worry me compared to say Tom Green but the bye situation outweighs this. Hoping for 115+ avg
Walsh - Underpriced value pick absolutely killed the finals 2 byes is annoying but the value outweighs this IMO 115-120+ not out of the question coming into his prime now
Touk - Underpriced value pick - again 2 byes is a worry & GC midfield under Dimma is a little concerning aswell but even if he only goes 110+ it’s still a win at that starting price
Gawn - Really want to start English but I can’t ignore Gawns value here as solo ruck if he does tire towards the second half of the year due to age/workload easy fade to English who I expect to drop in price eventually. 110-115+ avg
Grundy - Value pick as solo ruck I think the SCG will be a positive for Grundy smaller ground more ball ups etc has not moved from R2 hoping for 105-110+ avg I think the 120-130 days are over
Macrae - Boring pick who I think is potentially on the decline due to age - Smith being out might be favourable for him but you never know with Bevo. Fwds are dog - still a ball magnet hoping for 100-105 avg
Moore - Not seeing him in many teams I like him as a player I think with the additions of Ginnivan/Watson/Gunston will work in his favour to push higher up the ground can find the footy only 24 so expecting some natural improvement. Hoping for 95-100 avg has done 90+ the previous 2 seasons
Flanders - My first picked up fwd love the ceiling of this guy don’t think Dimma is stupid so I expect him to play mostly midfield/high fwd. 95-100 avg
Billings - think he is the best 200k option up fwd new environment might bring the best out of him no longer in Bonts shadow MCG will suit him too. Think he goes 80+ with ease
Zilliams - can’t say no @ 216k doesn’t need to be a keeper at that price easy pick IMO hopefully he can go 80+ with ease
Daicos - Just going to bite the bullet & start him. Will only get better. 2 byes + Finn is a worry but I don’t like Stewart/Sicily over him they are getting older.. LOCK
Sheezel - Love watching this kid play all class & will only get better. You’d think North will play him half back & through the midfield no point plonking him fwd if the ball isn’t getting down there much. LOCK
Young - Playing more midfield which is very appealing backend of 23 4x scores of 110+ organic improvement = LOCK
Dawson - Love this pick 15x scores over 110 last year think as captain with another pre season under Burgess will only improve Crows are my big tip for top 8/top 4 - if he can clean up his kicking 120+ not out of the question
Butters - Love watching this kid play he is a special midfielder to watch - his kamikaze attack does worry me with his slight frame but the bye situation/natural improvement outweighs this easily I’d take 115-120 avg anyday
Serong - Had him last year was ultra consistent ceiling does worry me compared to say Tom Green but the bye situation outweighs this. Hoping for 115+ avg
Walsh - Underpriced value pick absolutely killed the finals 2 byes is annoying but the value outweighs this IMO 115-120+ not out of the question coming into his prime now
Touk - Underpriced value pick - again 2 byes is a worry & GC midfield under Dimma is a little concerning aswell but even if he only goes 110+ it’s still a win at that starting price
Gawn - Really want to start English but I can’t ignore Gawns value here as solo ruck if he does tire towards the second half of the year due to age/workload easy fade to English who I expect to drop in price eventually. 110-115+ avg
Grundy - Value pick as solo ruck I think the SCG will be a positive for Grundy smaller ground more ball ups etc has not moved from R2 hoping for 105-110+ avg I think the 120-130 days are over
Macrae - Boring pick who I think is potentially on the decline due to age - Smith being out might be favourable for him but you never know with Bevo. Fwds are dog - still a ball magnet hoping for 100-105 avg
Moore - Not seeing him in many teams I like him as a player I think with the additions of Ginnivan/Watson/Gunston will work in his favour to push higher up the ground can find the footy only 24 so expecting some natural improvement. Hoping for 95-100 avg has done 90+ the previous 2 seasons
Flanders - My first picked up fwd love the ceiling of this guy don’t think Dimma is stupid so I expect him to play mostly midfield/high fwd. 95-100 avg
Billings - think he is the best 200k option up fwd new environment might bring the best out of him no longer in Bonts shadow MCG will suit him too. Think he goes 80+ with ease
Zilliams - can’t say no @ 216k doesn’t need to be a keeper at that price easy pick IMO hopefully he can go 80+ with ease
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KFC SUPERCOACH START 2024
The SuperCoach AFL season will begin in Round 1, not the condensed Opening Round.
Will the Opening Round count towards my overall score?
No, the first lockout – and the official start of the SuperCoach AFL season – will be Thursday, March 14 at the first bounce of the Carlton v Richmond game in Round 1.
Can I still change my team after Opening Round?
Yes, players will only be locked at the first bounce of their Round 1 game, and not in the four matches of Opening Round that starts on Thursday, March 7. There's a virtue in picking your team, and seeing how they perform in Opening Round - then dropping them, or keeping them, right through to lockout.
Can I still follow Opening Round scores?
Yes, live scores will still be available to our SuperCoach Plus subscribers during the four matches of the Opening Round.
What will those scores mean for breakevens and price changes?
Opening Round stats will still be factored into breakevens and price changes. A player’s price will change after three matches, as in previous years.
Will there be any changes to help us navigate the extra byes?
It will be best-18 scoring for all bye rounds, including the two-team bye weekends in rounds 2, 3, 5 and 6. If you are new to SuperCoach, this means you'll score from your best 18 players only in any position, from your selected, on-field starting 22
What about extra trades?
Any changes to the number of allocated trades will be announced in January, along with full gameplay details for 2024.
The SuperCoach AFL season will begin in Round 1, not the condensed Opening Round.
Will the Opening Round count towards my overall score?
No, the first lockout – and the official start of the SuperCoach AFL season – will be Thursday, March 14 at the first bounce of the Carlton v Richmond game in Round 1.
Can I still change my team after Opening Round?
Yes, players will only be locked at the first bounce of their Round 1 game, and not in the four matches of Opening Round that starts on Thursday, March 7. There's a virtue in picking your team, and seeing how they perform in Opening Round - then dropping them, or keeping them, right through to lockout.
Can I still follow Opening Round scores?
Yes, live scores will still be available to our SuperCoach Plus subscribers during the four matches of the Opening Round.
What will those scores mean for breakevens and price changes?
Opening Round stats will still be factored into breakevens and price changes. A player’s price will change after three matches, as in previous years.
Will there be any changes to help us navigate the extra byes?
It will be best-18 scoring for all bye rounds, including the two-team bye weekends in rounds 2, 3, 5 and 6. If you are new to SuperCoach, this means you'll score from your best 18 players only in any position, from your selected, on-field starting 22
What about extra trades?
Any changes to the number of allocated trades will be announced in January, along with full gameplay details for 2024.
In regards to the opening round & some teams having an early bye to go with playing in the opening round, I think the way you structure your team is going to vital. Guys like Grundy, Gawn, Walsh, Williams & Miller offer great value so its hard to pass on them but you have to careful in balancing the rest of your side that you don't have too many players missing in rounds 2,3,4,5 & 6 when its best 18 - Don't want rely on too many rookies over that period.
I think the term “injury prone” is used a lot when in reality “missed games” would be a better choice. No doubt some players are injury prone. Anthony Morabito had talent but never rose to the level of that ability in the AFL because his body would not support the stress after his debut year. I recently read an article where the player (cannot remember his name) had been to Qatar and was told he had to change his running style otherwise he would continue to have hamstring issues – ie to me he then would have become injury prone as a player unless he changed his style. And perhaps he still will continue to have issues even after modifying his running, only the future will tell. However missing games from a bruising bump or getting a corkie should not be interpreted as a player being injury prone. They are just contact injuries that happen.
I remember going into the 2020 season Whitfield was given the injury prone tag. His previous three seasons he had played 2017 (15 games), 2018 (22) and 2019 (16). However at that time “injury prone” was probably not a fair tag at all. He missed games in 2017 because of a drug suspension. 2018 he missed none. And then in 2019 he had a broken collar bone and a corkie (game contact injuries that just happen) and topped it off with emergency appendicitis surgery. So he really only missed about five games out of 66 due to football injuries. He played all 17 in 2020.
In the case of English, I was one of those that passed on him in 2023. Not because of his hamstring or his bout of flu or he is injury prone. It was simply because he had three years in a row where he had a concussion-Feb 2020 in intraclub, May 2021 and June 2022. Given that and that ruck is fairly heavy contact job I thought a concussion in 2023 would be a very real chance. You actually don’t need to be hit in the head to get a concussion either. And the issue was that if he was out with concussion it could be without a clear idea of when he would be back. Shades of Oliver. Turns out he had a ball tearer of a season and I was wrong. That is SC for you.
The reality is some guys just miss games for whatever reason and others can go season after season and never miss a game. But the term injury prone is, I think, not always used accurately.
I remember going into the 2020 season Whitfield was given the injury prone tag. His previous three seasons he had played 2017 (15 games), 2018 (22) and 2019 (16). However at that time “injury prone” was probably not a fair tag at all. He missed games in 2017 because of a drug suspension. 2018 he missed none. And then in 2019 he had a broken collar bone and a corkie (game contact injuries that just happen) and topped it off with emergency appendicitis surgery. So he really only missed about five games out of 66 due to football injuries. He played all 17 in 2020.
In the case of English, I was one of those that passed on him in 2023. Not because of his hamstring or his bout of flu or he is injury prone. It was simply because he had three years in a row where he had a concussion-Feb 2020 in intraclub, May 2021 and June 2022. Given that and that ruck is fairly heavy contact job I thought a concussion in 2023 would be a very real chance. You actually don’t need to be hit in the head to get a concussion either. And the issue was that if he was out with concussion it could be without a clear idea of when he would be back. Shades of Oliver. Turns out he had a ball tearer of a season and I was wrong. That is SC for you.
The reality is some guys just miss games for whatever reason and others can go season after season and never miss a game. But the term injury prone is, I think, not always used accurately.
