Opinion 2024 AFL SuperCoach Planning Thread

[Vicwood]

I am wondering what people here are thinking about the first rule of SC - pick your captains?

It appears N Daicos and Bont are currently the clear favourites on SC. I am not sold on selecting ND as a third year player and would prefer Bont, but he is expensive compared to other solid mids around, but only ~10% more than those. Then there is the unknown at this stage as to who the top two rucks will be and I am sure the right one would be a great C option too.

I currently have Bont and Marshall as my two but not with a lot of confidence and they are far from locked in!

Someone please convince me on who the best two C locks are.

View attachment 67786

Bont for Me, VC will be who has the best match up for the week between Gawn & Grundy.

 

[Vicwood]

I've been doing a bit of research into the early byes and the impact of missing premos.

The screengrab below is the winning round teams for Round 1-3 last year.
I've tried to roughly break it down between Premo (Green), Mid pricer (Orange) and Rookies (Red).

View attachment 67789

If we drop to best 18 in those early bye rounds then the impact of either one or two premos missing and having to bring in your next best rookie options (highlighted in yellow) is fairly significant.
Looking at an average of between 50-70 points per premo missing per week.

So if like a lot of people, you're rolling with Walsh, then Rd 2 you'll be 50-70 points worse off compared to those without him.
Then roll to round 3. Flanders seems a must have. So drop another 50-70 here.

Where it gets interesting is if you then add in Green or Touk, or both. Increase the points there.

All of a sudden, 3 rounds into the season and you could be anywhere from 100 - 280points behind depending on how the rookies perform in the premo absence.

I'd been against the theory to start Green shift to Walsh option, but I'm starting to see the benefit in it if you're really big on Green for round 1 or think Walsh is too good a value to dismiss. Alternatively I equally see the benefit in deliberately avoiding Green, Touk, Walsh and then to a lesser degree Gulden, Trac, Dusty. I think Round 0 will determine a lot of the decisions.

Bit annoying given the value that I think Green, Touk and Walsh offer. But being behind 100-280 points 5 rounds in is a bit.

Anyway... not sure if any of this makes much sense haha

Its a decision most of us on this site have thought about with the morning coffee. I wont let RD0 scores affect my starting structure.

Touk will play the team role Even if i need to ante up 610K after the byes.
Green will find his way into the team as some point. Could be the old swictheroo with Walsh.??
Walsh, this is the one selection i have spent too much tiime on, but i have decided i am comfortable to wait.

Trac have never considered Oliver will be the one.
Gulden, lots of new faces in the MID and Wing rotation at the swans. So its a wait. The Swans are stacked, great depth.
Dusty, after the byes, if fit.

 

[donnybuang]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1757931607963668489

View: https://twitter.com/BradKlibansky/status/1757931607963668489

Very keen on Amon, good to see the role held up without CJ.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Here's a little appetite whetter for a thread I will be posting within the next 24-48 hours.

When a player gets his end of season average above 110 for the first time, what happens to his average in the next season?

I'm sure the answer will surprise many of you!

112 players have crossed the 110 barrier for the first time, and then played a subsequent season.
The answer in Round numbers is:

Increased their previous season average by 5 or more: 10%
Scored within +5 or -5 of their previous seasons average: 30%
Dropped their average by more than 5 points: 60%

In fact, 42% of players, having crossed the 110 barrier for the first time, see their next seasons average drop 10+!!!!!

Players that fit this category in 2024:
English (128), Daicos (116), Dawson (116), Butters (114), Stewart (114), LDU (114), Gulden (111), Green (111), Serong (111).

History says, that on average, 5 of these players will see their averages drop by 5 or more. 3 of those 5 players will experience a 10+ drop in average!!!

This is great stuff!

Picking that one player from the start who is most likely to increase his average by 5+ is fairly crucial.

While identifying the five who are likely to drop by 5+ is really important too.

I think most likely candidates for 5+ are Butters, LDU, Gulden and Green.

While on the other hand I think those most likely to drop by 5+ are English and Stewart. But there will likely be three more out of the above group in Row's post!

 

[Professor]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1758279091160322351

View: https://twitter.com/tim_michell/status/1758279091160322351

 

[Professor]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1758271248675790965

View: https://twitter.com/FantasyFreako/status/1758271248675790965

 

[Professor]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1758307266980348250

View: https://twitter.com/coachespanel/status/1758307266980348250

 

[Connoisseur]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1758044985616900470

 

[jel]

Here's a little appetite whetter for a thread I will be posting within the next 24-48 hours.

When a player gets his end of season average above 110 for the first time, what happens to his average in the next season?

I'm sure the answer will surprise many of you!

112 players have crossed the 110 barrier for the first time, and then played a subsequent season.
The answer in Round numbers is:

Increased their previous season average by 5 or more: 10%
Scored within +5 or -5 of their previous seasons average: 30%
Dropped their average by more than 5 points: 60%

In fact, 42% of players, having crossed the 110 barrier for the first time, see their next seasons average drop 10+!!!!!

Players that fit this category in 2024:
English (128), Daicos (116), Dawson (116), Butters (114), Stewart (114), LDU (114), Gulden (111), Green (111), Serong (111).

History says, that on average, 5 of these players will see their averages drop by 5 or more. 3 of those 5 players will experience a 10+ drop in average!!!

I'll try some crystal ball gazing, will be interesting to see where this ends at the end of the season.
(Bold are players I've currently got in my team)

+5 : Butters, Gulden, Serong, Green
-5 : Stewart (just), Daicos, Dawson, LDU
-10 : English

 

[Professor]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1758306936372834766

View: https://twitter.com/Taezer87/status/1758306936372834766

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1758316776411279480

View: https://twitter.com/Taezer87/status/1758316776411279480

 

[Professor]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1758315592615092625

View: https://twitter.com/aflratings/status/1758315592615092625

 

[Gruffles]

I need to understand what the lay of the land is for rookie scoring potential. I feel I've got rookies like Gibcus, Coffield and Curtin (2 on the bench) who may have better scoring potential than some of the forward options like Windsor, Mannagh, Cadman, Darcy, Macrae and Wilson but I'll be honest and say I know very little about the the rookies. Will need to point some time into them pre-season for sure. JS is also a concern but we'll see what comes out of the ANSETT Cup.

Good post.
It is going to be very interesting if after preseason games it looks like we need more backline/mid rookies on field as the better scorers which goes completely against all the uncertainty regarding forward premos and who they might be!

 

[Locky27]

Here's a little appetite whetter for a thread I will be posting within the next 24-48 hours.

When a player gets his end of season average above 110 for the first time, what happens to his average in the next season?

I'm sure the answer will surprise many of you!

112 players have crossed the 110 barrier for the first time, and then played a subsequent season.
The answer in Round numbers is:

Increased their previous season average by 5 or more: 10%
Scored within +5 or -5 of their previous seasons average: 30%
Dropped their average by more than 5 points: 60%

In fact, 42% of players, having crossed the 110 barrier for the first time, see their next seasons average drop 10+!!!!!

Players that fit this category in 2024:
English (128), Daicos (116), Dawson (116), Butters (114), Stewart (114), LDU (114), Gulden (111), Green (111), Serong (111).

History says, that on average, 5 of these players will see their averages drop by 5 or more. 3 of those 5 players will experience a 10+ drop in average!!!

Would be interesting to know what scores the players who dropped more than 10 points were on. Did they drop from 120+ down to 110-ish, which isn't a disaster (you still end up with a top 10 player in their position). Or were they from 110 to 100, which is a failed premium pick?

 

[Gruffles]

I'm currently running Bont/Petracca/Dawson.

With some of Melbourne's forward line injuries are you worried about Trac spending more time forward early in the season or not a concern for you? Plus does his bye offput you at all?

 

[Rowsus]

With some of Melbourne's forward line injuries are you worried about Trac spending more time forward early in the season or not a concern for you? Plus does his bye offput you at all?

Not concerned by Fwd time, or his bye. Of the Mids that go Fwd, he's probably as good as any in the comp at playing Fwd (but not as good as a Fwd as some of the Fwd's that go Mid). As to the Bye, while keeping an eye on the number of players in my team that are bye affected, I will still take some of them. Last point: Rule 1 of SC Team Selection - start by picking your 2 or 3 VC/C options, without price/draw being a factor.

 

[jel]

Is anyone going in with a rough plan on how they are going to use their 40 trades?
My back of the napkin thought is:
26 for rookie to premo trades
4 for early round corrections
6 for injuries
4 for finals

It never seems to work out exactly as what I thought, but I feel better thinking I have a plan.

 

[NT.Thunder]

Is anyone going in with a rough plan on how they are going to use their 40 trades?
My back of the napkin thought is:
26 for rookie to premo trades
4 for early round corrections
6 for injuries
4 for finals

It never seems to work out exactly as what I thought, but I feel better thinking I have a plan.

38 on my rucks and 2 for rookie upgrades

 

[Rowsus]

Would be interesting to know what scores the players who dropped more than 10 points were on. Did they drop from 120+ down to 110-ish, which isn't a disaster (you still end up with a top 10 player in their position). Or were they from 110 to 100, which is a failed premium pick?

It's a very reasonable question.
The answer is 57.9% of them were fairly disastrous picks!

Players that fell from 110+ scores, by 10+ points. What score did they achieve, broken up by age.

 

[Locky27]

It's a very reasonable question.
The answer is 57.9% of them were fairly disastrous picks!

Players that fell from 110+ scores, by 10+ points. What score did they achieve, broken up by age.

View attachment 67813

Biggest takeaway here is that no one under 25 has backed up their first 110+ season.

 

[jel]

Biggest takeaway here is that no one under 25 has backed up their first 110+ season.

Maybe I've misread it but I thought it's only counting those that fell 10+ points. If they backed up their 110+ season, they're not counted.