Opinion 2024 AFL SuperCoach Planning Thread

[Crowls]

Needs to clean up his disposal, but he is good at finding the footy.

Agree, his disposal will hold his scoring back and may even jeopardise his selection during the season.

Billings looks same as previously, terrible disposal.
Windsor, looks promising though 180k starting price.

Gawn, looking good as ever. Naismith may be my R3 instead of Sweet.

 

[Santoz]

I’m firmly of the view he’ll struggle this year. Might still get some inside mid rotations but he’s too slow and too one dimensional. If Port start poorly he’ll be in strife, and even if he’s playing well the mix still won’t be great given they have so many guns to rotate through the middle.
He’ll have the odd 120+ game but will also have a lot in the 80’s range. I think best case is he goes at 90 but with big variation between floor and ceiling.
I think he’ll end up in no man’s land.. won’t score enough to be a keeper or make enough cash to be a successful stepping stone.

Best case I reckon he goes 105.

I think all he needs to average is 100 to make 100k and be well placed to turn him into a topliner around upgrade time or at his bye.

By all reports he's back on ball and is looking noticeably slimmer.

 

[Darkie]

You are debating very well here.

I think the example from Jurn Sturn (Walsh v Rozee) is a good one, but is probably skewed in terms of the Rozee team.

If I felt Rozee would average 112.5 and Walsh 110, then I wouldn't pick Walsh. Those picking Walsh would be looking at his 117 average from 2021. That increases the dollar and point gain in Walsh's favour. Walsh actually "wins" the point battle by 22.5 (5 x 4.5).

The 40 point gain (for Rozee) in having the extra premo for an extra round, is also not straightforward. In a best 18 round (because the round zero player would be present in the best 22 of rounds 1 and 4), the Walsh team has at least 5 players vying to be the 18th score. Potentially this could be 7 if you loop Walsh and we'll assume Williams. I would be backing one of those 5-7 to score more than 72, thus closing the 40 point gap on Rozee's 112.

Thank you - hopefully that’s a good thing!*

The best 18 scoring does help somewhat in that you get multiple bites at the cherry for the replacement score, albeit others do get that opportunity as well, as Chumpion mentioned.

I had estimated 60 and 55 as the two marginal scores (18th and 19th) based on experience rather than research, but since I’ve seen two people share some stats that suggest they’re in the ball park of being correct. If anything there may be a slightly larger drop-off (eg 60 and 53, for a 7 point gap).



*If my initial view is wrong, I’d rather “lose” the debate and end up changing my mind to the correct view, than “win” the debate and convince myself and others of the incorrect view.

 

[BIGB0Y]

Gibcus is a lock for D6

 

[NT.Thunder]

Windsor good size, needs to tidy up his disposal - watch.

Laurie looked to have a good role early but has faded, Kynan Brown done some nice things, role not ideal. Gibcus looks good, Dow will probably win the B&F in the VFL, Hopper looks strong and Van Rooey has put some size on. Billings will be Billings.

Who's this Steeley Green, he's done some nice things, is he a chance BigBoy.

 

[BIGB0Y]

Wow bolton looks good

 

[BIGB0Y]

Best on ground

 

[NT.Thunder]

Viney has been good. Petracca and Viney is hard to get a read on though with no Carry, he'll impact both their scoring I reckon

 

[BIGB0Y]

Windsor good size, needs to tidy up his disposal - watch.

Laurie looked to have a good role early but has faded, Kynan Brown done some nice things, role not ideal. Gibcus looks good, Dow will probably win the B&F in the VFL, Hopper looks strong and Van Rooey has put some size on. Billings will be Billings.

Who's this Steeley Green, he's done some nice things, is he a chance BigBoy.

I think he is a big chance to play early, between him and maurice. Green is way ahead of him atm. Maurice looks unfit.
I think dow will average 75/80. They have big wraps on him just needs to tidy up his disposal.

 

[Connoisseur]

I think all he needs to average is 100 to make 100k and be well placed to turn him into a topliner around upgrade time or at his bye.

The issue with making significant cash from that price range comes down to the sequencing of the scores in his price cycle. Will need a few massive scores to hit your desired target whilst avoiding the low ones. If that transpires, then the possibility could be that he is averaging more than 100 at that point in time and would you continue to hold if there are other pressing issues to deal with and when would you determine the jump off point? Holding too long could cause the potential gain to be reduced and thus wouldn’t serve the intended purpose.

Best not to view players in this price range and especially in the midfield position, as stepping stones given the low likelihood of all events going to plan.

Have a look at Newcombe and Gulden from last season that started approx $10,000 to $15,000 more than Wines as a guide for potential price movements.

 

[straightuptheguts]

Dees forward line is poor and no forward pressure allowing the Tiges to run in waves out of defence. Petracca might have to play more forward when Clarry back ??

 

[straightuptheguts]

Bolton looking superb, Kozzie doing good work on ball, Gibcus looks a lock, Billings looking like he will get plenty of it.

 

[Connoisseur]

Dees forward line is poor and no forward pressure allowing the Tiges to run in waves out of defence.

Practice match so take it with a grain of salt given significant pressure on the ball carrier or forward pressure will be close to non existent along with low intensity from the players given for some there is no incentive to do so in a meaningless waste of time for most players.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Bolton looking superb, Kozzie doing good work on ball, Gibcus looks a lock, Billings looking like he will get plenty of it.

Billings a real risk of not being there round 1.

He might play opening round with no Pickett or McAdam but could lose his spot the very next round when Kozzie returns. Sounding like McAdam is aiming for round 1 or 2 as well.

No Oliver, Brayshaw or Hunter today either. Spargo probably ahead of Billings too.

 

[Diabolical]

Not watching … Is Naismith showing any promise and getting to have a go against Gawn?

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Not watching … Is Naismith showing any promise and getting to have a go against Gawn?

He’s been good. Probably straight out with Nank back from opening round though.

 

[straightuptheguts]

Billings a real risk of not being there round 1.

He might play opening round with no Pickett or McAdam but could lose his spot the very next round when Kozzie returns. Sounding like McAdam is aiming for round 1 or 2 as well.

No Oliver, Brayshaw or Hunter today either. Spargo probably ahead of Billings too.

Yeah i just wonder if the Billings in the midfield experiment is Clarry insurance

 

[Juzzo]

Bolton looking superb, Kozzie doing good work on ball, Gibcus looks a lock, Billings looking like he will get plenty of it.

Kozzie sucked me in last year, not again.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Yeah i just wonder if the Billings in the midfield experiment is Clarry insurance

Plenty of others can roll through there even with no Oliver.

Trac, Viney, Sparrow, Brayshaw, Kozzie, ANB and Rivers to name a few.

 

[NT.Thunder]

I think he is a big chance to play early, between him and maurice. Green is way ahead of him atm. Maurice looks unfit.
I think dow will average 75/80. They have big wraps on him just needs to tidy up his disposal.

I’ve got my Dow’s mixed up, I was thinking he was Paddy