Opinion 2024 AFL SuperCoach Planning Thread

Joined
12 Jan 2014
Messages
3,765
Likes
11,768
AFL Club
West Coast
Probably a bit late for this but......

High end midfield churn:

The following is a list of top 8 mids by year who did not make the top 8 the following year. The number in brackets is their midfield ranking for the following year. I haven't taken into account DPPs

2018: Titch (DNP), Oliver (10), Cogs (25) If we ignore Titch for his LTI, then Laird went from 9th to 33rd
2019: Fyfe (10), Cripps (44), Dunkley (31), Danger (11), Bont (9)
2020: Neale (25), Trac (11), Kelly (19), Merrett (12)
2021: Steele (14), Titch (43), Walsh (11), Parish (12)
2022: Neale (18), Touk (33), Macrae (28), Mills (56)

So in any year we can expect around half of that top 8 to not be top 8 the following year. Of those that miss out, there is a 50/50 chance that they will come in 9th to 12th. Not the end of the world.

Here is this year's starting top 8. Which 4 to miss? Which 4 to miss badly?
Bont, Oliver, Trac, Laird, Zerrett, Daicos*, Libba, Dawson. I'll add Spudniacke due to Daicos being a defender
For mine

Oliver, Laird, Libba and Zerret. Oliver only because of the pre season. Libba the most likely. Zerret because he usually is not in the top 8, but just outside it.
 
Joined
4 Mar 2013
Messages
1,928
Likes
5,871
Yep, seems to pick up injuries/tweaks got often which is a real worry when paying over 600K for a mid.
I think that risk is mitigated to an extent by the extra trades available. He missed 2 games in 2022 with a twisted knee (and averaged 107 on his return) then played every game last year, so recent history is pretty positive in that regard anyway.

I agree, watch the training reports.
 
Joined
20 Mar 2016
Messages
1,397
Likes
4,836
Is it the rolled ankle that has people cooling on Butters, or the potential of Wines to return to decent scoring?

Hypothetically, if he'd rolled it late in Q4 rather than early in Q1 then he gets Wines's CBAs and scores 120 to Wines's 90. Not sure whether that would have given sufficient reassurance to arrest the slide.

Feels a bit bizarre that a Brownlow fancy with a perfect SC role, high ceiling, fantastic draw and in the ideal age range to push 120 might be a relative midfield POD :unsure:
His manic attack on the ball always has me worried he'll get knocked out or injured at any moment - I was actually surprised he was able to put together a full season last year....
 
Joined
8 Jan 2020
Messages
6,265
Likes
26,163
AFL Club
Geelong
If Trac plays well round 0, is anyone seriously considering him despite the early bye/ 2 byes overall?

Just looking into it further, dees share that bye with the tigers only - so just Gibcus/ Short/ Naismith SC relevant.

I think he is a lock to finish top 5 mids, gives an awesome VC/capt option & his byes don’t clash with Bont & Daicos. I guess the argument is most will have Gawn anyway for that option. The more I look into the premium mids, Trac is one that I have the least doubts about - looks in great shape/ same as always … just wished he had fixed his kicking issues 😂
Hes been in my team all pre season, I really don't see the downside that seems to be common place, if anything I expect him to get even better with more support in the contest, the roles not going to be any worse he spent a mountain of time up forward even while Clarry was out.

Personally have always felt becoming a more well rounded footballer had a greater impact on his scoring improvement than whether or not Clarry was out there.
 
Joined
8 Jan 2020
Messages
6,265
Likes
26,163
AFL Club
Geelong
Crouch has no other position on the ground he can play outside of in the middle. So as long as he's best 22, his position on the field should be fine.
Spending time on the bench so they can rotate other guys through the middle is my concern, slightly lower TOG is probably the difference between 95-100 and 105+ with him.
 
Joined
9 Feb 2015
Messages
9,441
Likes
57,910
AFL Club
West Coast
Hes been in my team all pre season, I really don't see the downside that seems to be common place, if anything I expect him to get even better with more support in the contest, the roles not going to be any worse he spent a mountain of time up forward even while Clarry was out.

Personally have always felt becoming a more well rounded footballer had a greater impact on his scoring improvement than whether or not Clarry was out there.
Agree

Last year he had 21 scores over 100 & 10 over 120 for an overall average of 119 - that's extremely consistent. He did that with just 61% CBAs in a mid/fwd role - with Brayshaw now retired & Oliver coming into the season clearly underdone, I expect those CBA numbers to increase.
 
Joined
4 Mar 2013
Messages
1,928
Likes
5,871
How much of Wines output was just unrealistic midfield opportunity that hes not going to get once the games actually matter? I think that 130 could become 80-90 pretty quickly when Butters and Rozee inevitably take a greater CBA share.
Spot on, but I was curious whether the drop in Butters ownership was due to people reactively fleeing to Wines or shying away from a premium with a less-than-flawless preseason.

Rd 0 will be interesting. Middling scores from Gulden, Green, Petracca, Miller and positive training reports out of Port might have a few reverting to Butters.
 
Joined
13 Apr 2012
Messages
6,024
Likes
15,759
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
How much of Wines output was just unrealistic midfield opportunity that hes not going to get once the games actually matter? I think that 130 could become 80-90 pretty quickly when Butters and Rozee inevitably take a greater CBA share.
I’ll preface this one by saying I normally avoid Port players to remove any personal bias but I think the fact that it’s been stated multiple times that he’ll only play his preferred role by coaching staff would make him a decent pick.

Coupled with the fact his best seasons SC wise align with the very few full pre seasons he’s had - and he’s had one this season - makes him a good pick.

Throw in the favourable bye and he ticks too many boxes to ignore.
 
Joined
8 Jan 2020
Messages
6,265
Likes
26,163
AFL Club
Geelong
I’ll preface this one by saying I normally avoid Port players to remove any personal bias but I think the fact that it’s been stated multiple times that he’ll only play his preferred role by coaching staff would make him a decent pick.

Coupled with the fact his best seasons SC wise align with the very few full pre seasons he’s had - and he’s had one this season - makes him a good pick.

Throw in the favourable bye and he ticks too many boxes to ignore.
His best SC seasons didnt have AA Level mids in Butters and Rozee and JHF thats only going to get better, its just my view but I really struggle to see the 105+ Wines being a reality anymore, dont question the role think it will be fine I question if the same reliance on him to do everything that led to such good scoring in the past is actually there anymore.
 
Joined
8 Jan 2020
Messages
6,265
Likes
26,163
AFL Club
Geelong
Spot on, but I was curious whether the drop in Butters ownership was due to people reactively fleeing to Wines or shying away from a premium with a less-than-flawless preseason.

Rd 0 will be interesting. Middling scores from Gulden, Green, Petracca, Miller and positive training reports out of Port might have a few reverting to Butters.
Ive just never been crazy about those mid priced midfield sort of options, they either come out and go at a premium level and youre happy to keep them as your M7-M8 or they make you 50K at best require upgrading and end up essentially nothing picks, just think this years crop are more likely to be the latter category personally then you leave yourself having to chase bulk 600k+ mids.

Always been more than one way to play the game so never going to talk anyone out of playing the game their way but its just not for me.
 
Joined
8 Jan 2020
Messages
6,265
Likes
26,163
AFL Club
Geelong
I just worry that we are leaning too greatly towards value and going to leave ourselves with too much to do to actually get to full premium optimal sides, dont want to have to use 25 trades turning all our mid pricers into premiums.

Hopefully Round 0 can make the optimal strategy a little clearer.
 
Top