Opinion 2024 AFL SuperCoach Planning Thread

[aj74]

Jackson finished 2nd out of our available forwards this year. Darcy playing does affect his scoring and that makes sense.

Last year, Darcy missed 8. This year, he is already slated to miss 3 - 5.

Jackson is 22 years old. A good age for a forward to start making a bigger impact, even if a little young for a ruck

All up, does this look like Jackson will be top 6 by the end of the year? I think so. Yes he might only have 3 Darcy-less games compared to last year's 8, but he would be dropping from a convincing 2nd in the forwards. Still should be top 6

Next question: can we get him for cheaper?

Well I'd say yes we probably could, if his average goes back sub-90 when Darcy returns, then yeah we should be able to get him for 500k or less. In that case though, what sorts of scores have we missed out on? He's priced at only 98 and could have been running 110+. Very handy for our forward lines this year.

Best case is that he has a break out year, with plenty of games in the ruck and finishes with a 105+ average. In this case you should start him.

Worst case, barring injury, is that he has a really good opening before slowing down mid season and maybe not coming on at the end of the year. If he does finish top 6 which he showed he could do last year by finishing 2nd, then he needs to be started, rather than traded in.

 

[TommyC]

Jackson finished 2nd out of our available forwards this year. Darcy playing does affect his scoring and that makes sense.

Last year, Darcy missed 8. This year, he is already slated to miss 3 - 5.

Jackson is 22 years old. A good age for a forward to start making a bigger impact, even if a little young for a ruck

All up, does this look like Jackson will be top 6 by the end of the year? I think so. Yes he might only have 3 Darcy-less games compared to last year's 8, but he would be dropping from a convincing 2nd in the forwards. Still should be top 6

Next question: can we get him for cheaper?

Well I'd say yes we probably could, if his average goes back sub-90 when Darcy returns, then yeah we should be able to get him for 500k or less. In that case though, what sorts of scores have we missed out on? He's priced at only 98 and could have been running 110+. Very handy for our forward lines this year.

Best case is that he has a break out year, with plenty of games in the ruck and finishes with a 105+ average. In this case you should start him.

Worst case, barring injury, is that he has a really good opening before slowing down mid season and maybe not coming on at the end of the year. If he does finish top 6 which he showed he could do last year by finishing 2nd, then he needs to be started, rather than traded in.

I do agree with your point that he should finish top 6 fwd, but as a 547k fwd i'd be expecting 105 avg which we are yet to see the evidence he can be trusted to do that. At 22 he could 100% break out but think he's too expensive to pick and hope he breaks out

 

[HimothyTaranto]

Jackson had 8 games where Darcy was missing last year. He averaged 118 points. One game, was a spike game of 173 points.

It is likely Darcy will miss at least 6 weeks despite the best case scenario being 3-5.

Let's say if we extend it to the same sample size of 8 games and sprinkle in two games of ~70 (after Darcy is back), he'd average 108 points over that same time frame.

That is 10-11 points above his priced average as of right now. He should net you some money and will allow you to get points on board, but I think as soon as Darcy comes back, you'd have to either: (a) hold and see if Darcy suffers lingering symptoms (b) move him on for a higher priced premo.

I think with 40 trades you can get away with it, but the sweet spot needs to be at least 6-8 games missed. 3-5 is not enough for it to be super useful. Most people are going to pick Naismith as R3, so Jackson won't be useful ruck cover when Naismith and Gawn have the round 6 bye either as neither have DPP.

 

[Game of Sloanes]

Jackson had 8 games where Darcy was missing last year. He averaged 118 points. One game, was a spike game of 173 points.

It is likely Darcy will miss at least 6 weeks despite the best case scenario being 3-5.

Let's say if we extend it to the same sample size of 8 games and sprinkle in two games of ~70 (after Darcy is back), he'd average 108 points over that same time frame.

That is 10-11 points above his priced average as of right now. He should net you some money and will allow you to get points on board, but I think as soon as Darcy comes back, you'd have to either: (a) hold and see if Darcy suffers lingering symptoms (b) move him on for a higher priced premo.

I think with 40 trades you can get away with it, but the sweet spot needs to be at least 6-8 games missed. 3-5 is not enough for it to be super useful. Most people are going to pick Naismith as R3, so Jackson won't be useful ruck cover when Naismith and Gawn have the round 6 bye either.

Won't be swinging Jackson with Naismith because he is a RUCK only.

 

[HimothyTaranto]

Won't be swinging Jackson with Naismith because he is a RUCK only.

Maybe I should've made it clearer in my post, but when I mentioned he's not a useful ruck cover for any of these guys, it's because of this reason.

 

[Montyjnr]

Does Clark from the Cats have more appeal as a onfield option.? Seemed to have a good role in the pre season game.

I have actually been thinking this exact same thing.

Like it seems strange to me that Dow, Roberts, Hustwaite etc. have established themselves as fieldable options and Jhye Clark is the consensus bench rookie.

Is it just groupthink at play here? Jhye Clark had the equal most CBAs of the Geelong mids against Essendon!

 

[Feerits Elf]

I do agree with your point that he should finish top 6 fwd, but as a 547k fwd i'd be expecting 105 avg which we are yet to see the evidence he can be trusted to do that.

Why does a $547k forward need to average 105?

Didak 2010 - $558.6k - 103.7 (4th best forward)
ROK 2012 $556.6k - 103.8 (6th best forward)
Franklin 2018 - $540.5k - 100.1 (4th best forward)
Menegola 2018 - $551.8k - 100.0 (5th best forward)
Martin 2020 - $543k - 101.3 (6th best forward)
Coniglio 2023 - $557.7k - 101.7 (6th best forward)

In a season in which the forwards cupboard is looking pretty bare, I think $547k isn't unreasonable for a bloke who can be reasonably expected to return 100-104 at worst.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

I have actually been thinking this exact same thing.

Like it seems strange to me that Dow, Roberts, Hustwaite etc. have established themselves as fieldable options and Jhye Clark is the consensus bench rookie.

Is it just groupthink at play here? Jhye Clark had the equal most CBAs of the Geelong mids against Essendon!

I would say it’s due to his price. Rightly or wrongly, generally people opt for the more expensive rookie priced options on field over the basement guys.

 

[TommyC]

Why does a $547k forward need to average 105?

Didak 2010 - $558.6k - 103.7 (4th best forward)
ROK 2012 $556.6k - 103.8 (6th best forward)
Franklin 2018 - $540.5k - 100.1 (4th best forward)
Menegola 2018 - $551.8k - 100.0 (5th best forward)
Martin 2020 - $543k - 101.3 (6th best forward)
Coniglio 2023 - $557.7k - 101.7 (6th best forward)

In a season in which the forwards cupboard is looking pretty bare, I think $547k isn't unreasonable for a bloke who can be reasonably expected to return 100-104 at worst.

You make a good point but with so many good options around that price I can't justify spending 547k on a guy whos likely to avg sub 100 for the majority of the season whens theres guys like touk, steele, Martin, Crouch who we believe will avg 100+. For me it just comes down to value and I personally don't see 547k for a potentially sub 100 avg fwd for the majority of the year as enough value

 

[Chumpion]

You make a good point but with so many good options around that price I can't justify spending 547k on a guy whos likely to avg sub 100 for the majority of the season whens theres guys like touk, steele, Martin, Crouch who we believe will avg 100+. For me it just comes down to value and I personally don't see 547k for a potentially sub 100 avg fwd for the majority of the year as enough value

Just one thing to note - the average is only relevant vs players on the same line. Saying Touk, Steele, Martin and Crouch are better picks cause they’ll average more is flawed thinking. Fair enough if you think Jackson averages so poorly that $547k is a crazy overspend, but it’s probably more relevant if you are convinced he isn’t a top 8 forward this year. Given his likely hot start and favourable bye, it feels unlikely he falls outside the top 8 without significant injury impacts.

 

[Serj]

Won't be swinging Jackson with Naismith because he is a RUCK only.

by r6 naismith could be a downgrade to livingstone trade with nank back up and running. I imagine a bunch of people will be considering that in 6 weeks time, to free up cash and have the bonus of moving jackson in as gawn cover for the bye.

 

[Feerits Elf]

theres guys like Crouch who we believe will avg 100+.

Speak for yourself! I'd take Jackson over Crouch every day and twice on Sundays.

 

[Gruffles]

Can't believe anyone is even thinking about the Jackson pick.
It's a gift from the Gods, was a solid enough option before Darcy's surgery, after is now one of the biggest locks this season.

Don't think, just do!

 

[TommyC]

Speak for yourself! I'd take Jackson over Crouch every day and twice on Sundays.

I also listed steele, touk and Martin in that group which is strange you deleted that from the quote. I guess i just value consistency across the year and don't see as much point in keeping a guy who will be amazing for a month but then a very real chance of sub 90 for the rest of the season. If we get any confirmation it'll be 3+ weeks i'll probably start him with the aim of offloading to a green/gulden post their bye.

 

[Peter56]

How many keepers are people running with?
I am sitting on either 10 or 11 at the moment.

 

[Peter56]

I also could not make up my mind as to which rookies I wanted to start.
So I made a real G&R team with them all and 9 keepers. $96L ITB
Anyone game to run something like this?

 

[Peter56]

Agree….people selecting Jackson only because Darcy is injured need to be prepared to hold him as a keep and take the 70-80 scores that may come their way when Darcy returns…
At $547k it’s a waste if you are going to trade him out just for a quick cash grab if he has a flying start to the year…
Lets also not forget he is coming off concussion in his last game…how will this impact him?

I think there is a lot of FOMO with Jackson. I had a look at getting him in but I would have to seriously pull my team apart so in my case not worth it.
I also think you have to miss out on having Naismith at R3 and have a Livingston type R/F to make use of Jackson though the byes.

 

[Ginty22]

Can't believe anyone is even thinking about the Jackson pick.
It's a gift from the Gods, was a solid enough option before Darcy's surgery, after is now one of the biggest locks this season.

Don't think, just do!

Was locked in my team even before the Darcy surgery news, absolutely a gift in a fairly bare forward line

 

[Locus Levy Lunacy]

I have actually been thinking this exact same thing.

Like it seems strange to me that Dow, Roberts, Hustwaite etc. have established themselves as fieldable options and Jhye Clark is the consensus bench rookie.

Is it just groupthink at play here? Jhye Clark had the equal most CBAs of the Geelong mids against Essendon!

This is another potential plus (and I accept there are legitimate minuses) in favour of round 0 players.

If I have Cripps round 2 (would have been Walsh), Miller round 3 and Gulden round 5, I may be able to access a spike score from a Clark-type via looping, that others can't.

Some of these rookies will put up some big scores early, but it will be unpredictable which ones. Remember Gulden's first 2 scores ever were in the 130's. If I can access a Clark 120 in round 3 for example, and those without a round zero player can't, then Miller becomes a big win.

The thinking that a premo's 115 is going to be replaced by a 68, is not factoring in the strength and depth of this year's rookie pool IMO.

 

[Russty_]

by r6 naismith could be a downgrade to livingstone trade with nank back up and running. I imagine a bunch of people will be considering that in 6 weeks time, to free up cash and have the bonus of moving jackson in as gawn cover for the bye.

Jackson doesn't really need to cover Gawn or Naismith in the byes, cause it's best 18 scores, it's only if your R1 or R2 goes down with a temp injury or suspension you'd actually need to swing Jackson to Ruck.