Opinion 2024 AFL SuperCoach Planning Thread
- Thread starter MC's Mix
- Start date
Any club that's not chasing him should just fold right now.
I think the Jackson/Darcy window is 5+ weeks, 5 or more games without and it's a lock pick as natural improvement is also possible. Hard part is if it's 4 weeks, that's actually only 2 rounds for them. I think I will take the punt though.
Also, has anyone done any kind of projections or run numbers on the best 18 factor? Looking at my draft side I'm basically not fielding Sexton, Coffield, Sanders and McKercher if you remove my 4 cheapest players. I can't help but feel like I'm better off having weaker rookies not playing for 4/6 first rounds and getting a couple more premiums in than pushing out those 4 (or 200k+ guys they outscore) to probably get mid level scoring from all the 200k guys. It's hard to separate projections from structure when working out what is better but I definitely had the GnR outscoring by a lot primarily because of the byes.
I think the Jackson/Darcy window is 5+ weeks, 5 or more games without and it's a lock pick as natural improvement is also possible. Hard part is if it's 4 weeks, that's actually only 2 rounds for them. I think I will take the punt though.
Also, has anyone done any kind of projections or run numbers on the best 18 factor? Looking at my draft side I'm basically not fielding Sexton, Coffield, Sanders and McKercher if you remove my 4 cheapest players. I can't help but feel like I'm better off having weaker rookies not playing for 4/6 first rounds and getting a couple more premiums in than pushing out those 4 (or 200k+ guys they outscore) to probably get mid level scoring from all the 200k guys. It's hard to separate projections from structure when working out what is better but I definitely had the GnR outscoring by a lot primarily because of the byes.
- Joined
- 2 Feb 2022
- Messages
- 679
- Likes
- 2,351
- AFL Club
- Essendon
Is there anyone else who has all of Ryan, Young, Fyfe and Jackson in their team from Freo?
I’ve played around a bit and dropped Serong > Steele and Stewart to Young which allowed me to go Duursma to Jackson in forward line. It seems like a lot of Freo there.
Not set on it and not really sure about it. Is 4 same team on field too many?
I’ve played around a bit and dropped Serong > Steele and Stewart to Young which allowed me to go Duursma to Jackson in forward line. It seems like a lot of Freo there.
Not set on it and not really sure about it. Is 4 same team on field too many?
- Joined
- 27 Feb 2021
- Messages
- 171
- Likes
- 1,009
- AFL Club
- Carlton
Totally agree.
Each year is different and the strength of those 19-22 rookies is greater than normal. I think the table from last year showed that your 19th rookie averaged 58 (fantasy) over the first 6 rounds. Lets call that 68 for SC. If Sexton, McKercher, Sanders, Hustwaite, Lazzaro, Reid types cannot beat 68 between them, then why are we paying extra (in most cases) for them?
In any bye round, given you can likely loop 1 or 2 extra, you would want/expect closer to 90 from the best of that lot I would have thought. There's also every chance one of them will produce a spike score equivalent to the missing premo too. If you were relying on one guy as the replacement, it would be a far greater risk.
That table specifically used the average 19th score, not the best of your 19th to 23rd or 24th in a particular round. The average might have been 68, but with fluctuations between 48 and 88 (for example), you are going to get way better than 68 from a pool of 5 or 6.
Each year is different and the strength of those 19-22 rookies is greater than normal. I think the table from last year showed that your 19th rookie averaged 58 (fantasy) over the first 6 rounds. Lets call that 68 for SC. If Sexton, McKercher, Sanders, Hustwaite, Lazzaro, Reid types cannot beat 68 between them, then why are we paying extra (in most cases) for them?
In any bye round, given you can likely loop 1 or 2 extra, you would want/expect closer to 90 from the best of that lot I would have thought. There's also every chance one of them will produce a spike score equivalent to the missing premo too. If you were relying on one guy as the replacement, it would be a far greater risk.
That table specifically used the average 19th score, not the best of your 19th to 23rd or 24th in a particular round. The average might have been 68, but with fluctuations between 48 and 88 (for example), you are going to get way better than 68 from a pool of 5 or 6.
- Joined
- 31 Jan 2016
- Messages
- 393
- Likes
- 1,675
Have you considered bye players missing in this? I expect most teams would have 1-3 missing each of the early byes which means your bottom 4 would change each bye round and some come from the bench.
Also worth including your 23rd player in this based on the expectation that someone from the best 18 is likely to be missing through injury, suspension etc.
Also worth including your 23rd player in this based on the expectation that someone from the best 18 is likely to be missing through injury, suspension etc.
- Joined
- 6 Jan 2013
- Messages
- 19,080
- Likes
- 80,368
- AFL Club
- Melbourne
It's out of him and Hustwaite at M8 for me. If Hustwaite doesn't work then it might be Lazarro.
Am about 30k short at the moment so I got bigger problems. 60k ITB and I've got Sharp and had to to forego Gibcus. Now Gibcus would be D7 anyway so can be Reid/Coffield and slow burn on the bench. Ideally Massimo gets his DPP so I can flip him with Martin in round 6. Mass in the mids should then be an easy midfield cash in once he's maxed out. Means I can afford Sharp to Lazarro if required. .
I think that Clark is borderline M8. You probably have McKercher and Sanders at M6 and 7, yeah? I think that rather than trying to work out whether Clark is fieldable, you might need to be asking if he is more fieldable than your D6 and F6. Those are the Peters you might be robbing to pay for a better M8.
Am about 30k short at the moment so I got bigger problems. 60k ITB and I've got Sharp and had to to forego Gibcus. Now Gibcus would be D7 anyway so can be Reid/Coffield and slow burn on the bench. Ideally Massimo gets his DPP so I can flip him with Martin in round 6. Mass in the mids should then be an easy midfield cash in once he's maxed out. Means I can afford Sharp to Lazarro if required. .
I think that Clark is borderline M8. You probably have McKercher and Sanders at M6 and 7, yeah? I think that rather than trying to work out whether Clark is fieldable, you might need to be asking if he is more fieldable than your D6 and F6. Those are the Peters you might be robbing to pay for a better M8.
- Joined
- 23 Mar 2014
- Messages
- 6,389
- Likes
- 17,516
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
Agree….people selecting Jackson only because Darcy is injured need to be prepared to hold him as a keep and take the 70-80 scores that may come their way when Darcy returns…
At $547k it’s a waste if you are going to trade him out just for a quick cash grab if he has a flying start to the year…
Lets also not forget he is coming off concussion in his last game…how will this impact him?
At $547k it’s a waste if you are going to trade him out just for a quick cash grab if he has a flying start to the year…
Lets also not forget he is coming off concussion in his last game…how will this impact him?
I do think with 40 trades we could use him as an elite scorer/cash grab for 4-5 weeks and jump off. For me I need to hear he's gonna miss a month before picking but I think we have to treat this year differently. I've always been a very conservative trader but thinking we need to adjust our thinking somewhat. I'm personally looking at Jackson as a placeholder for a Gulden/Green after their byes.