You can use the same underpricing argument on any midpricer you like also. Steele is actually a great example, a lot of people started him last year because he was 10 points underpriced and he went backwards by 15!
If we could reliably find all the underpriced guys, there'd be no point playing the game! End of the day, players are only underpriced for one of two reasons. 1) They've never done it before 2) something happened last year that caused them to stop doing it. We're either projecting something that hasn't happened or explaining away something that did as being an anomaly and not a regularity.
Take Heeney, he's 10-15 points underpriced on seasons he's healthy (and/or gets so injured he can't play through it) but he's gotten injured most years, so at season's end it would not be a surprise to me if he averaged 80 or 110 but there's no way I'd bet my house on him averaging 100 because the injury bet is definitely reasonable.
All I'm saying is the more we take, the more likely we get one wrong. I feel really safe with Grundy and yet he's consistently reduced his average for 5 straight seasons now. Gawn is the same only it's 3 seasons and if his 72 had counted on the weekend I'd probably be ready to jump in front of a bus. There are very good reasons to explain away both of their sustained declines but nothing is guaranteed.
To be fair, all of this also applies to other picks, I didn't think Laird and Touk would both fall of a cliff last year and be two of the worst starting mids you could pick, I thought they were nice safe picks and they ruined my season. This year I can't even see the safe picks in the midfield to be wrong about which makes it even harder to justify not chasing value but I think people should definitely be careful with taking too many round 0 guys, chances that you nail 6 or 7 of them is pretty low (I say this as someone who currently 7 of them in his team!).
Even your Daicos reasoning is flawed. If he doesn't improve by 7-10 more than whoever someone takes in place of him, your pick is behind on purely fair value outcomes. If you're not very bullish on Daicos being a 125+ type scorer, you shouldn't be starting him (I am, so I am!). If Daicos scores 117 through his bye, that's an effective 108 using a 65 replacement score. Luke Ryan is 40k cheaper to give that outcome. Daicos is somewhat unique given his 70% ownership does blue lines but that also means he's got by far the best ROI if you don't start him and are right (double edged sword alert).
I'd definitely suggest that everyone does work out the replacement value scoring based on your projection for the player you're picking, it's pretty eye opening just how hard those replacement scores do hit.
