Strategy 2024: Round 5 Trades

THCLT

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Thank you so much for this.

I really want to hold McKay for what I expect will be a big score vs Adelaide this week, but after that he goes on an incredibly difficult run: Giants, Cats, Pies, Dees, Swans.

However, if I use his money this week, I can get both English and Martin. It feels bad trading out such a shining light so soon. I got him two weeks ago for a 137X2 (VC). Feeling very torn.
Pity about his 'almost' game against the Dockers as that would've made the decision to hold easier had he notched up a 100+ score to maximise on the potential cash gain this round.
 
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Finding trades difficult this week. What I was hoping to do was:
Jordon > Steele
Billings > Lohmann
Jackson > Premo

Gives me 583k for the premo. Can make it 627k or 642k if I opt for Graham or Clohesy.

The thing is, who’s that premium?

Wouldn’t go for a ruck as I have Gawn and Grundy but even if I did, I wouldn’t pay almost 700k for English and I’m not overly interested in Marshall as I don’t think he’ll keep up with English and Gawn.

I have Heeney and Flanders in the forward line. The cupboard is extremely bare after that. I can’t confidently say they’ll finish top 6-8 for any of the others.

I think the top defenders are still sorting themselves out. I have Ryan, Sheezel and Houston right now and Yeo who I’m expecting to offload at some point. I have doubts on Stewart being top 6-8 which is a bold take. He needed 10 intercept marks for his one big score. Just isn’t getting involved enough in the Cats ball movement. Regardless, I wouldn’t be paying 600k for him. Sicily has obvious role issues right now and not touching him. Sinclair is starting to get going after his calf setback but I’d like to wait a bit before grabbing him. Not going anywhere near McGovern. Liked Whitfield but he had a poor game last week and I’ve cooled on him. Duggan I actually thought would be getting more attention as an option. Hurn gone and he’s thriving. Not for me though. Not liking the Young/Clark/NWM options. Guessing game trying to pinpoint who actually works out.

As for the midfielders everyone is at their peak price. My top 10 would be Bont, Petracca, Serong, Green, Merrett, Butters, Gulden, Steele, Libba, Neale in roughly that order. Already own Green, Serong and Libba. Grabbing Steele this week already. Out of the others Bont, Petracca, Merrett and Butters are too expensive, Neale has injury concerns and I like Gulden but he has a bye! Rozee and Dawson look value but I just don’t think they’ll cut it at the end of the season. Andy Brayshaw is there but I don’t think he’ll ever be a top liner in SC like he is in AF. Liked Miller last week but turned off by his recent performance. Not touching LDU and Oliver is very much a wait and see. Was looking at JHF but he needs DPP and Wines out seems to have cost him that. For Martin’s good scores he played the Saints who leak bulk points to defenders and in a heavy loss to Port where the ball lived in his area.

Really want to offload Jackson but I just can’t see a good option for him. Will probably just do a Howes > Clohesy/Graham trade instead and store the cash for Gulden and/or Daicos next week.
Great insights.

I liked Lohmann and had my eye on last week but forgot to check if he was non sub. Had planned on getting him, however his run moving forward looks tough. His performance I think is a little variable based on opposition using short TOG games. Not ideal as alternative are probably 1 game rookies.

Consdiering Steele vs Martin, could argue both had reasonable match ups. Question is whether Martin can be D6, feels like we can have one value choice. Martin lower price and BE and non mid line does feel like he is more attractive. Steele as a top mid in the Saints line up suggest he will be top 8.

Mids trick, Petracca looks the good yet starts to fade often in 2H of season as his knee soreness builds. Butters has increasing competition this year from JHF and Wines back in mids. Think Bont, Libba, Green, Merrett and likely Steele own their roles/cba's. Serong hopefully more about playing Carlton.
 
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I've zigged and zagged but in the end have gone for the old, trusted route: hold your premiums and do the upgrades around them.

3 rookies out, 2 rookies and premo in (keeping Jackson and Grundy). Not entirely sure which ones yet but getting closer to a plan.
 
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Great insights.

I liked Lohmann and had my eye on last week but forgot to check if he was non sub. Had planned on getting him, however his run moving forward looks tough. His performance I think is a little variable based on opposition using short TOG games. Not ideal as alternative are probably 1 game rookies.

Consdiering Steele vs Martin, could argue both had reasonable match ups. Question is whether Martin can be D6, feels like we can have one value choice. Martin lower price and BE and non mid line does feel like he is more attractive. Steele as a top mid in the Saints line up suggest he will be top 8.

Mids trick, Petracca looks the good yet starts to fade often in 2H of season as his knee soreness builds. Butters has increasing competition this year from JHF and Wines back in mids. Think Bont, Libba, Green, Merrett and likely Steele own their roles/cba's. Serong hopefully more about playing Carlton.
I think trading Jackson is the play but you just have to nail the premium you take for him. I’ve pegged him as 90-95 with Darcy in the team, but last year he actually went at just 85.7 in those games (excluding the game Darcy was injured and subbed in the second).

Whitfield and Martin are the two I’m starting to lean towards as the replacement. I’d have Whitfield averaging slightly higher but the injury history plays a part. Whitfield is a renowned burnman in fantasy circles as he always happens to get injured when he is relevant. Martin has missed one game since his debut and that was due to Covid protocols.

Lohmann is a tough one because he’s an obvious sub candidate whether that be the starting sub or the one who gets subbed out. Difficult run coming up as you mentioned and he hasn’t excelled in the games he came on as sub. Have to remember the 88 was against North. Comben, Georgiades and Ramsden will all be on the bubble next week so there’s no rush to get a rookie forward.
 

THCLT

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Liked Whitfield but he had a poor game last week and I’ve cooled on him.
As a new owner last round, I was very relieved to get that 'poor' 87 game from him considering he was on 20 at QT and underwent a concussion test during the QT break and only played about 5mins towards the end of the second QT. He did well to get through the game and scored what he did.

However, that incident has unfortunately reminded me that it won't be the last time that I'll be holding my breath on whether something has gone wrong with Whitfield.
 
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Got 34 trades, i feel like im burning through them

At the moment thinking i want to get a few players such as Steele, Heeney etc

But im thinking hold Jordon and trade before his next game, that way i get an extra week to scope rookies AND choose someone else to drop (Clark on the watchlist at the moment)

Am i crazy for thinking this is a good idea?
 
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IMG_7759.jpeg

NMartin is on my radar but getting him in means going early on 2 rookies (Clohesy/Graham) and culling a cow (Carroll) to facilitate it.

Comfortable with Cloe but very risky with Graham as I don’t know much about him. Culling Carroll not ideal but he could be impacted by Walsh’s return. NMartin will go to defense after dpp. Thoughts?

The other option would just be a simple Coff>Clohesy trade. Maybe a second one of Clark/Sexton>Lohman (if named and starts)

IMG_7760.jpeg IMG_7761.jpeg IMG_7762.jpeg
 
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View attachment 71076

NMartin is on my radar but getting him in means going early on 2 rookies (Clohesy/Graham) and culling a cow (Carroll) to facilitate it.

Comfortable with Cloe but very risky with Graham as I don’t know much about him. Culling Carroll not ideal but he could be impacted by Walsh’s return. NMartin will go to defense after dpp. Thoughts?

The other option would just be a simple Coff>Clohesy trade. Maybe a second one of Clark/Sexton>Lohman (if named and starts)

View attachment 71077 View attachment 71078 View attachment 71079
Too risky trading out Clark and Carroll when you got 5 rookies not playing/making cash on the bench.
 
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Why is he a bad pick if you own Jackson? He's 357K and can realistically average 100 - who else priced under 400K currently can do that?
You can put Jackson in the rucks and find more cash and points than Meek will offer. Not saying Meek can't work though.
 
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View attachment 71076

NMartin is on my radar but getting him in means going early on 2 rookies (Clohesy/Graham) and culling a cow (Carroll) to facilitate it.

Comfortable with Cloe but very risky with Graham as I don’t know much about him. Culling Carroll not ideal but he could be impacted by Walsh’s return. NMartin will go to defense after dpp. Thoughts?

The other option would just be a simple Coff>Clohesy trade. Maybe a second one of Clark/Sexton>Lohman (if named and starts)

View attachment 71077 View attachment 71078 View attachment 71079
I reckon Graham will be a pretty solid rookie, obviously with the rookie caveats. It looks like he was the direct recipient of Flanders CBA's after being moved to defence.
 
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Option One

Howes - Cholsey
LDU - Martin
Jordan - JFH

Going Early on Cholsey, was a big green light in players to watch at the start of the year. Pure Wing role 70+ Average

LDU- Soooooo frustrated with this pick, as i went with a Butters LDU - against a Bont and Crouch combo. Keeps me awake at night with the points loss.

Jordan to - JFH just a 3 week cameo with my eyes on a straight swap to Oliver in a few weeks.

Leave my team looking like this for this week.

Next week cash in a rookie and upgrade one to Jordan Dawson has a great run after Carlton this week.

232,000 ITB
 

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