Strategy 2024: Round 5 Trades

Joined
26 Jun 2019
Messages
2,559
Likes
9,517
AFL Club
Richmond
Finding trades difficult this week. What I was hoping to do was:
Jordon > Steele
Billings > Lohmann
Jackson > Premo

Gives me 583k for the premo. Can make it 627k or 642k if I opt for Graham or Clohesy.

The thing is, who’s that premium?

Wouldn’t go for a ruck as I have Gawn and Grundy but even if I did, I wouldn’t pay almost 700k for English and I’m not overly interested in Marshall as I don’t think he’ll keep up with English and Gawn.

I have Heeney and Flanders in the forward line. The cupboard is extremely bare after that. I can’t confidently say they’ll finish top 6-8 for any of the others.

I think the top defenders are still sorting themselves out. I have Ryan, Sheezel and Houston right now and Yeo who I’m expecting to offload at some point. I have doubts on Stewart being top 6-8 which is a bold take. He needed 10 intercept marks for his one big score. Just isn’t getting involved enough in the Cats ball movement. Regardless, I wouldn’t be paying 600k for him. Sicily has obvious role issues right now and not touching him. Sinclair is starting to get going after his calf setback but I’d like to wait a bit before grabbing him. Not going anywhere near McGovern. Liked Whitfield but he had a poor game last week and I’ve cooled on him. Duggan I actually thought would be getting more attention as an option. Hurn gone and he’s thriving. Not for me though. Not liking the Young/Clark/NWM options. Guessing game trying to pinpoint who actually works out.

As for the midfielders everyone is at their peak price. My top 10 would be Bont, Petracca, Serong, Green, Merrett, Butters, Gulden, Steele, Libba, Neale in roughly that order. Already own Green, Serong and Libba. Grabbing Steele this week already. Out of the others Bont, Petracca, Merrett and Butters are too expensive, Neale has injury concerns and I like Gulden but he has a bye! Rozee and Dawson look value but I just don’t think they’ll cut it at the end of the season. Andy Brayshaw is there but I don’t think he’ll ever be a top liner in SC like he is in AF. Liked Miller last week but turned off by his recent performance. Not touching LDU and Oliver is very much a wait and see. Was looking at JHF but he needs DPP and Wines out seems to have cost him that. For Martin’s good scores he played the Saints who leak bulk points to defenders and in a heavy loss to Port where the ball lived in his area.

Really want to offload Jackson but I just can’t see a good option for him. Will probably just do a Howes > Clohesy/Graham trade instead and store the cash for Gulden and/or Daicos next week.
Whitfields poor score was mainly due to a concussion test in the 2nd quarter where he was off the field for 20 mins, surprised that he was cleared to come back on after complaining of blurred vision, thank god he did because I have him in both formats
 
Joined
2 Mar 2014
Messages
2,837
Likes
5,190
AFL Club
Essendon
Talked myself into ridding my team of Grundy for English by using a boost.

I've now talked myself out of it. Thinking I use my remaining 3x boosts to get uber premo mids over the next few weeks. I want 300k minimum for each traded player after next week.

Next week's boost:

Out - Bramble/D'Ambrossio, McKercher, Cadman
In - Graham, Ramsden, Gulden

Double 'downgrade' this week: Clohesy & Comben in for Howes & Sexton to free up a little coin.
 
Joined
15 Mar 2012
Messages
561
Likes
1,351
AFL Club
St Kilda
Ranked 880 overall, my trades last week wernt fantastic (only 1 game sample size) went Marshall/ Fyfe/ Sexton for Gawn/ King/ Darcy. Marshall turned it around and Fyfe looked good, King didn’t play great and still scored 77 so I’m optimistic. Ended up scoring 2363!

This week I’m thinking Howes/ Grundy out for Clohesy / Meek. Leaves me 323k in the kitty for some upgrades next week or the week after. Pretty much locked into doing Howes/ Clohesy and up in the air about Meek.

Job security is somewhat of an issue, I doubt they play 2 rucks but a few bad games Reeves may be back in. Grundy isn’t doing awful, but seems to be racking up the clangers/ frees against which is limiting his scores.

If Meek can match Grundys scores, the $ will come in handy. Other option is holding a trade, or going Mannagh to Graham… although I’d like to see another game from Graham (not sure his CBA Time will be sustainable). Cheers!
 
Joined
26 Jun 2019
Messages
2,559
Likes
9,517
AFL Club
Richmond
Was thinking about,

Grundy > McKay
Jackson > English
Howes > Bowes

But I think it's wiser to go,

Howes > Bowes
Coffield > Clohesy

Gives me enough to get Daicos and Graham next week for Ambrosio and Williams. Should be reasonably set up for round 7 with 17 players that should hold their spots until the main byes whilst I upgrade around them. Hoping to have a full compliment of 22 heading in to round 12.
 
Joined
25 Dec 2022
Messages
3,378
Likes
16,582
AFL Club
West Coast
Whitfields poor score was mainly due to a concussion test in the 2nd quarter where he was off the field for 20 mins, surprised that he was cleared to come back on after complaining of blurred vision, thank god he did because I have him in both formats
If I’m being honestly, he’s probably the most likely Jackson replacement if I go down that path. Concussion test definitely hurt his scoring. Efficiency was down a bit and had 5 clangers, don’t know if this was as a result of the knock or just an off game.
 
Joined
13 Mar 2012
Messages
2,790
Likes
2,985
AFL Club
Adelaide
Talk me out of trading in Jeremy Sharp @ $255k...BE of -51...if he averages 70 over the next 3 games price will rise by $100k and potential stepping stone to a premo by Round 7 or 8.

People are comfortable trading in Comben @ $227k and a BE of -40, however is a key position player with perhaps greater risk than Sharp of generating low scores and slower cash generation...i.e. if he averages say 55 over the next 4-5 games his price only goes up $75k. Advantage of Comben is the upcomign DPP I suppose.

Thoughts?
Past experience of mine says don't trade down to rookies at inflated prices in this case 4 price rises. Rookies are so unreliable you might get that $100K you might not. And $350K is not even a real stepping stone more like a standard upgrade price. You will still need $200K on top to get someone decent.
 
Joined
13 Mar 2012
Messages
2,790
Likes
2,985
AFL Club
Adelaide
I've narrowed down my trades this week to 4 choices, which will effect my future trades considerably. Any input would be much appreciated.
Here's the team (not optimised for the byes this week, shown as the long term structure): View attachment 71041
Option 1: Grundy/Berry to Marshall/Clohesy (via Laz and Daicos).
This leaves 183.7k in the bank, setting me up well to bring in a Stewart or Dawson type in the coming weeks (trading out Howes/Massimo probably and sliding Roberts into defence). Big tick for having the ruck line solved for the season. Berry to Clohesy isn't strictly needed this week, but Berry has a high BE of 67 and getting Clohesy early secures 6 on field in defence this week, and allows me to bring in both Ramsden and Graham and upgrade next week if all 3 rookies prove to be worth grabbing.

Option 2: Grundy/Berry to English/Clohesy (via Laz and Daicos).
This is pretty much the same as the above, but with only 97.4k in the bank for future upgrades. Marshall has pretty much bottomed out, English is still close to top dollar is making me lean towards option 1 over 2. Similar future plans to above.

Option 3: Howes/Hore/Berry to Clohesy/Graham/Martin (via Laz)
This leaves just 2.7k in the bank, which will likely delay future upgrades by a week, but it cleans up an injured rookie, and 2 rookies who's BE exceeds their average. Going early on both Clohesy and Graham is a risk, but it allows grabbing Nic Martin who is rising fast now and is setting up the team to slide both Roberts and Martin into the backline in r7 (out goes Massimo and whoever, leaving williams at d6), to try to grab Dawson, and not having to worry about fielding any more horrible D rookies. The Grundy upgrade gets put off until he fails to meet his BE with me hoping for English to dip towards 650 odd and Grundy to climb to 550 odd. This does risk Marshall rising back up though and missing him at his cheapest.

Option 4: Hore/Grundy/Berry to Clohesy/Meek/Martin (via laz)
This leaves 47.1k in the bank. Clean up an injured rookie, grab Martin on the way up, and gain some cash and hopefully comparable to Grundy points in Meek. Next week is a probable Howes to Graham trade to build cash, and then a Massimo to Dawson type in 1-2 weeks. This pushes the R2 upgrade out for a month or so same as above. This is a bit riskier relying on Meek, and could force me to pull the trigger on R2 at a non-optimal time if he proves lacking or loses the role. This is also the highest points on field option for this bye week which is nice (2 upgrades with Meek pushing a rookie to the bench)

I'm pretty torn on whether I want to sort the ruck out for good (1/2), gamble on Meek (4), or the relatively tame bank the upgrade and start from scratch again on cash (3).
I feel you are over complicating it. Why not do a bog standard upgrade like Howes/Massimo-->Young (any premium)/Clohesy?
 
Joined
2 Mar 2014
Messages
2,837
Likes
5,190
AFL Club
Essendon
Ranked 880 overall, my trades last week wernt fantastic (only 1 game sample size) went Marshall/ Fyfe/ Sexton for Gawn/ King/ Darcy. Marshall turned it around and Fyfe looked good, King didn’t play great and still scored 77 so I’m optimistic. Ended up scoring 2363!

This week I’m thinking Howes/ Grundy out for Clohesy / Meek. Leaves me 323k in the kitty for some upgrades next week or the week after. Pretty much locked into doing Howes/ Clohesy and up in the air about Meek.

Job security is somewhat of an issue, I doubt they play 2 rucks but a few bad games Reeves may be back in. Grundy isn’t doing awful, but seems to be racking up the clangers/ frees against which is limiting his scores.

If Meek can match Grundys scores, the $ will come in handy. Other option is holding a trade, or going Mannagh to Graham… although I’d like to see another game from Graham (not sure his CBA Time will be sustainable). Cheers!
One of the reasons I'm hitting hold on getting rid of Grundy for either Marshall or English this week. Marshall and English both seem to be flavours of the month, but ...

Happy to hold and watch to see if Witts can improve his DE%. Scored 98 going at 29%. With a BE of about 140 odd I think Witts could drop even further from his current price of 570k and also plays the Roos & Eagles twice, although I'm not sure that Xerri will make it easy for him to score. Could Witts average similar to Marshall for the rest of the year at 50k less? I'm hoping so, but he'll need to improve that DE.
 
Joined
26 Jun 2019
Messages
2,559
Likes
9,517
AFL Club
Richmond
If I’m being honestly, he’s probably the most likely Jackson replacement if I go down that path. Concussion test definitely hurt his scoring. Efficiency was down a bit and had 5 clangers, don’t know if this was as a result of the knock or just an off game.
That's been my knock on him over the years and what's held him back from being a top tier SC player, his clanger count is always up there, 4-5/game on average is a bit of a guess but I'm sure that I'm not far off it. Seems to me that he attempts kicks that are very risky, looks great when they come off, but hurts his scoring when some inevitably don't.
 
Joined
25 Dec 2022
Messages
3,378
Likes
16,582
AFL Club
West Coast
That's been my knock on him over the years and what's held him back from being a top tier SC player, his clanger count is always up there, 4-5/game on average is a bit of a guess but I'm sure that I'm not far off it. Seems to me that he attempts kicks that are very risky, looks great when they come off, but hurts his scoring when some inevitably don't.
The thing that has stood out to me is his scoring tends to correlate with how well the Giants are going. Noticeably, his peak year was in 2019 when they came 6th and made it to the GF. In 2022, they finished 16th and he averaged 86.1, his lowest season average since 2016.

GWS seem to have figured themselves out and are my flag tip. They love using the corridor which suits his game.

His injury history is always a worry but he’s a weird one because most of these injuries aren’t soft tissue related.
 
Joined
9 May 2012
Messages
2,904
Likes
8,840
This feels like a double upgrade, I had Gawn all pre-season but switched to Marshall at the last minute after Opening Round & Gawn's certainly made me pay for that decision! I know it's not the best time with the Demons bye next week. but with his b/e of 75 he could easily jump another $30k

Howes - Clohesy
Jordon - Steele
Grundy - Gawn

Hmm @Under The Dome had a great post (#225) on Meek, now that definitely give me something to think about
 
Joined
11 Mar 2022
Messages
332
Likes
631
AFL Club
Richmond
In: Clohesy & T.Brown
Out: Coffield & Howes

Gives me 6 defenders on field, without the trades I only have 4...

Discuss.
 
Top