Strategy 2024: Round 5 Trades

[toxic]

Did these Monday and haven't changed
Perfect timing these byes for me (best 18s followed by dpp changes)

Coffield to Clohesy
Grundy to Meek
Bramble to Jack Sinclair

Bring on dpp changes

 

[XabiFernando]

So I've had a reasonable start and I'm getting nosebleeds - currently ranked inside the top 700, in part due to some fortunate captain calls (Butters R2, Heeney R4). The last time I started this well was a few years ago, and I wasted the opportunity by being way too conservative on the upgrade cycle (waiting for rookies to hit their absolute peak price and delaying the upgrade). I have a small cash league with family but always like to live the fantasy of overall until the maths makes it near impossible - so for now that's my focus.

I have 33 trades and 4 boosts left, and ~$50k in the bank. I've traded pretty aggressively into cash cows so far as they've presented themselves but that has to stop at some point. Team is below (no trades made yet but optimised for Rd5), currently 12 players who I'd call premiums/keepers (including LDU - backing him in - but not including Powell and Grundy). If I go at 2.5 trades per upgrade, that leaves me with 8 trades left for LTIs and managing through bye rounds which feels perhaps a bit light.

For this week:
Conservative me is suggesting Sexton to Graham via Wilson, which gets me 22 on field, reopens my D/M loop, and gives a bit of flex for next week's trade plan (which likely includes Clohsey and a D/M premium upgrade).
Aggressive me wants to do Grundy to Meek - another cash cow trade which eats into the trades remaining, risky if I want to bring in 2 rooks + premium upgrade next week, and Meek's run isn't massively favourable with Witts, Xerri, Grundy, English and Marshall in his next 5. But he does have good history when solo rucking (post 225), and despite the negatives, this just feels like the type of move someone chasing overall would make.

Would love some insight on whether it's time to focus purely on upgrade cycles or keep looking for those cash cow opportunities with the hope of landing a fully upgraded ultra-premo team for the run home (albeit with trade remaining risk).

 

[donnybuang]

Does everybody who is trading Grundy have Luke Jackson? Or are those who trading just sick of him? I think I'm begrudgingly keeping him, he's been a bit underwhelming but I can't justify myself trading him (especially if I have Jackson covering him over the bye round).

I have Jackson. Remember Jackson is not covering him, your 19th weakest player is.

 

[warewolves]

Does everybody who is trading Grundy have Luke Jackson? Or are those who trading just sick of him? I think I'm begrudgingly keeping him, he's been a bit underwhelming but I can't justify myself trading him (especially if I have Jackson covering him over the bye round).

I have Jackson, but that’s not really a factor, in my decision to trade Grundy.. in my case he’s going for Meek.
I’m a long way down the rankings and willing to take a risk.
It’s mainly a tactical grab for cash that hopefully won’t cost points.
$150K in hand and strong price rise imminent for Meek
Yet to be sure Meek can keep up his scores, but it’s not out of the question and he has one more score to offer.
Hoping he turns into another Briggs and then it’s a great strategic play as well

 

[toxic]

So I've had a reasonable start and I'm getting nosebleeds - currently ranked inside the top 700, in part due to some fortunate captain calls (Butters R2, Heeney R4). The last time I started this well was a few years ago, and I wasted the opportunity by being way too conservative on the upgrade cycle (waiting for rookies to hit their absolute peak price and delaying the upgrade). I have a small cash league with family but always like to live the fantasy of overall until the maths makes it near impossible - so for now that's my focus.

I have 33 trades and 4 boosts left, and ~$50k in the bank. I've traded pretty aggressively into cash cows so far as they've presented themselves but that has to stop at some point. Team is below (no trades made yet but optimised for Rd5), currently 12 players who I'd call premiums/keepers (including LDU - backing him in - but not including Powell and Grundy). If I go at 2.5 trades per upgrade, that leaves me with 8 trades left for LTIs and managing through bye rounds which feels perhaps a bit light.

For this week:
Conservative me is suggesting Sexton to Graham via Wilson, which reopens my D/M loop, and gives a bit of flex for next week's trade plan (which likely includes Clohsey and a D/M premium upgrade).
Aggressive me wants to do Grundy to Meek - another cash cow trade which eats into the trades remaining, risky if I want to bring in 2 rooks + premium upgrade next week, and Meek's run isn't massively favourable with Witts, Xerri, Grundy, English and Marshall in his next 5. But he does have good history when solo rucking (post 225), and despite the negatives, this just feels like the type of move someone chasing overall would make.

Would love some insight on whether it's time to focus purely on upgrade cycles or keep looking for those cash cow opportunities with the hope of landing a fully upgraded ultra-premo team for the run home (albeit with trade remaining risk).

View attachment 71093

If really brave
Laz to Clohesy
Grundy to Meek, move Jackson fwd
Upgrade a def rookie to a premo

 

[dicksilverman]

I missed Briggs last year which really hurt.
Was planning on upping Grundy to English but am getting serious FOMO on Meek.

Will he be another Briggs and a must or is cash gen less of an issue this year with the amount of rookies available?

Ditto! Great call and I’m taking the punt!

 

[XabiFernando]

If really brave
Laz to Clohesy
Grundy to Meek, move Jackson fwd
Upgrade a def rookie to a premo

Could do that, the premo I could afford that I'd be most interested in is probably Steele. To make that happen the def "rookie" would be Mass, but there's an argument to be had that whatever Mass is due to rise by, Steele probably matches it. Ultimately a question of whether Steele is a likely Top 8 mid from here, but on exposed form it looks promising

 

[Juzzo]

Clohesy was singled out by Dimma in his press conference as ‘outstanding on a wing’ so I think if going early on one, he’s our man.

I won't have any issues going early on Comben, he looked very very good down back.

 

[Old Big 'Ead]

Did these Monday and haven't changed
Perfect timing these byes for me (best 18s followed by dpp changes)

Coffield to Clohesy
Grundy to Meek
Bramble to Jack Sinclair

Bring on dpp changes

Like the trade to Sinclair. Think he is about to turn the corner,

 

[JY5165]

Like the trade to Sinclair. Think he is about to turn the corner,

what has sinclair's role been? havent been watching st kilda games

 

[Woodsey]

Apart from Clohesy, any other rookies around next week? Looking who I can use to get up to Daicos after his bye.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Apart from Clohesy, any other rookies around next week? Looking who I can use to get up to Daicos after his bye.

Graham $117,300 DEF/MID also from the Suns.

Ramsden $123,900 FWD from Hawthorn.

 

[Woodsey]

Graham $117,300 DEF/MID also from the Suns.

Thinking I’ll go Grundy and Howes to N Martin & Clohesy this week.

Z Williams and McKercher to Daicos and Graham next.

 

[Under The Dome]

This is badly formatted.

He's 161.5k today. I assume he's using a score of 60 in Rd5 as well?

His rookie table has him going up $34k with a 60, so I assume he has to score an 88 to get to the $207.9k.
60's from there is the way it looks in his 4 round projection.

 

[Beg2Differ]

So I've had a reasonable start and I'm getting nosebleeds - currently ranked inside the top 700, in part due to some fortunate captain calls (Butters R2, Heeney R4). The last time I started this well was a few years ago, and I wasted the opportunity by being way too conservative on the upgrade cycle (waiting for rookies to hit their absolute peak price and delaying the upgrade). I have a small cash league with family but always like to live the fantasy of overall until the maths makes it near impossible - so for now that's my focus.

I have 33 trades and 4 boosts left, and ~$50k in the bank. I've traded pretty aggressively into cash cows so far as they've presented themselves but that has to stop at some point. Team is below (no trades made yet but optimised for Rd5), currently 12 players who I'd call premiums/keepers (including LDU - backing him in - but not including Powell and Grundy). If I go at 2.5 trades per upgrade, that leaves me with 8 trades left for LTIs and managing through bye rounds which feels perhaps a bit light.

For this week:
Conservative me is suggesting Sexton to Graham via Wilson, which gets me 22 on field, reopens my D/M loop, and gives a bit of flex for next week's trade plan (which likely includes Clohsey and a D/M premium upgrade).
Aggressive me wants to do Grundy to Meek - another cash cow trade which eats into the trades remaining, risky if I want to bring in 2 rooks + premium upgrade next week, and Meek's run isn't massively favourable with Witts, Xerri, Grundy, English and Marshall in his next 5. But he does have good history when solo rucking (post 225), and despite the negatives, this just feels like the type of move someone chasing overall would make.

Would love some insight on whether it's time to focus purely on upgrade cycles or keep looking for those cash cow opportunities with the hope of landing a fully upgraded ultra-premo team for the run home (albeit with trade remaining risk).

View attachment 71093

This won't help but I have had a pretty decent start as well, and my nosebleeds are more intense than yours, and I am grappling with exactly the same thing.

 

[Chumpion]

So I've had a reasonable start and I'm getting nosebleeds - currently ranked inside the top 700, in part due to some fortunate captain calls (Butters R2, Heeney R4). The last time I started this well was a few years ago, and I wasted the opportunity by being way too conservative on the upgrade cycle (waiting for rookies to hit their absolute peak price and delaying the upgrade). I have a small cash league with family but always like to live the fantasy of overall until the maths makes it near impossible - so for now that's my focus.

I have 33 trades and 4 boosts left, and ~$50k in the bank. I've traded pretty aggressively into cash cows so far as they've presented themselves but that has to stop at some point. Team is below (no trades made yet but optimised for Rd5), currently 12 players who I'd call premiums/keepers (including LDU - backing him in - but not including Powell and Grundy). If I go at 2.5 trades per upgrade, that leaves me with 8 trades left for LTIs and managing through bye rounds which feels perhaps a bit light.

For this week:
Conservative me is suggesting Sexton to Graham via Wilson, which gets me 22 on field, reopens my D/M loop, and gives a bit of flex for next week's trade plan (which likely includes Clohsey and a D/M premium upgrade).
Aggressive me wants to do Grundy to Meek - another cash cow trade which eats into the trades remaining, risky if I want to bring in 2 rooks + premium upgrade next week, and Meek's run isn't massively favourable with Witts, Xerri, Grundy, English and Marshall in his next 5. But he does have good history when solo rucking (post 225), and despite the negatives, this just feels like the type of move someone chasing overall would make.

Would love some insight on whether it's time to focus purely on upgrade cycles or keep looking for those cash cow opportunities with the hope of landing a fully upgraded ultra-premo team for the run home (albeit with trade remaining risk).

View attachment 71093

Congrats on the start so far! The next 2 rounds will probably bunch a little with popular premiums on the bye, so I would probably say identify where you want your team for round 7 (back to best 22) and work backwards from there.
The difference between Meek and a rookie is probably less over this next 2 rounds and what probably stood out to be across rounds 2 & 3 is it’s the high ceiling premiums that made the most difference.

It’s for that reason I’m trying to work out if I have a good way to get Grundy up to English rather than down to Meek. But if there is no pathway that makes sense, I’m probably looking at Meek as my next option and then 3rd is looking at some of the <$550k players I could possibly 1 trade Grundy too.

Good luck whichever way you go!

 

[JY5165]

any chance nick martin gets moved back to the wing? probably not till ridley gets back at least?

 

[Chumpion]

any chance nick martin gets moved back to the wing? probably not till ridley gets back at least?

Almost zero I’d say. He trained back over the preseason and played back with Ridley in the game he played. He’d also lost his wing spot last year so I don’t think that happens.

 

[inwhiterooms]

Thinking just Coffield to Clohsey at this stage. Certainly considered a Grundy to Meek cash grab but the next 5 matchups are putting me off (Witts, Xerri, Grundy, English, Marshall) I only see one decent fixture there. Also terrified about a weekly teamsheet sweat.

 

[Nest]

A bit lost on what to do this week and my trades so far this season have been mostly good but have also had some absolute stinkers.

Round 2: Gibcus to D'Ambrosio (√), Lazzaro to Cadman (√), Fisher to Heeney (√)
Round 3: Short to Sheezel (√), Martin to Serong (X), Bonner to Carrol (X); missed Sharp and Dempsey, luckily held Young
Round 4: Fyfe to Powell (X), Sexton to Darcy (√); held Jordon, faded Brown

Considering this week:

• Coffield to Clohesy; happy to go early on Clohesy, probably for Coffield to be able to field 6 defenders but could do Howes.
• Don't know what to do with my second trade, would like to move on Jordon but don't feel great about also going early on Comben. Considering Lohmann if he avoids the green vest this week.
• Already used 2 boosts, but not completely opposed to using a third if it allows for a creative solution

As a Hawks supporter I think Meek is a trap given the run of opponents we have coming up, and I'm comfortable holding Grundy given his scoring history as a solo ruck.

Team is as below, would love to hear any thoughts.