Discussion 2025: AFL SuperCoach Discussion - OPEN

[OnTopBar]

People really overrate how good their rookies will be.

I know for a fact that I ignored the byes last season and it cost me at least 60 points in every bye that I had a player missing. Pretty sure the best score I had as the 18th was a 61 from memory with a couple of 50s and, luckily, a 40 something in one of the rounds that I didn't have to take that 19th score as I hadn't picked any premiums from that bye.

The simple fact is that you're playing your 19th best player while everyone else is fielding a premium in that spot. So it's ~110+ points against ~60. You could get incredibly lucky and have 7 odd rookies that you field all score 100+ but it's insanely unlikely and you should be planning on a 60 type score, for Flanders that's 60 points lost if he plays to his price.

The full rosters is actually a negative as it means the only guy you can loop is that missing premium, so at most 2 lines. Later on would actually be better where you're more likely to have a couple of dead rookies floating around.

There are reasons to pick him still. The obvious is that you think he's got 10 points of upside, he's Dane Swan like as a player so it's definitely possible that he does improve further, I don't think 130 is impossible for him. You might also think that none of the other options are better. The only other premium backs to pick from are Sheezel, Ryan, McGovern, Sinclair, Clark and NWM if I cut off at 100. I can make a case against all of them that has them being 10 points overpriced or unlikely to improve and, unfortunately, we really do have to pick a certain amount of backs still so it's not as simple as just spend that money elsewhere. You can also only realistically pick 2 of Clark, Ryan, Sinclair and NWM without basically just kicking the problem to their bye with interest given a lot of other players from those teams are relevant at other positions.

Personally, I like Stewart and Holmes more if going for a premium level defender with the bye as I think their 10+ improvement scenario is stronger than Flanders. Albeit Flanders does have a lot better premium certainty to me. Even then, I'd probably prefer as an early upgrade target post bye barring enormous r0 scores that are going to kill the value.

Mills is a different story given he's potentially 50 points underpriced on his best.

There's 7 rookies in my current team and with best 18 we'll get to drop the worst 5 scores, theoretically meaning that I keep the best 2 rookie scores.

Looking at the top 6 rookie scores over the first 3 rounds last year gives the below results (sorry, no good with tables)

Rnd 1:
Berry 104
Dempsey 96
McKercher 88
Answerth 80
Carroll 74
Duursma 71

Rnd 2:
Darcy 109
Thomas 107
Sanders 99
McKercher 95
Roberts 94
Moyle 90

Rnd 3:
Roberts 98
Gallagher 88
Dempsey 86
Conway 83
Rioli 79
Sanders 77

If I had 1 premo missing on each of those rounds then the replacement scores would be the 3rd best, 88, 99 & 86

Of course you'd have to nail all of those rookies, but Berry, Dempsey, Mckercher, Darcy, Thomas, Sanders, Roberts and Gallagher would have been in most teams. Even missing one or two still gives a score base of 74 and a high score of 94 as the 5th best scores. Also ignores a poo score from premo or MP

It's a small sample size and relies on a very good bunch of rookies. I think the key though to replacing a premo score with a rookie is to have as many bites of the cherry as possible, so having a look at up to 26 players with 3 loops (one on each line) will maximise the chances. My current team gives me a look at 25 in round 2, 26 in round 3 and 26 again in round 4

 

[Vicwood]

Gawn/Bont/Parker v Nank/LDU/JHF
Im leaning more towards option 1, thoughts?

Option 1 better VC/C options

 

[freowho]

There's 7 rookies in my current team and with best 18 we'll get to drop the worst 5 scores, theoretically meaning that I keep the best 2 rookie scores.

Looking at the top 6 rookie scores over the first 3 rounds last year gives the below results (sorry, no good with tables)

Rnd 1:
Berry 104
Dempsey 96
McKercher 88
Answerth 80
Carroll 74
Duursma 71

Rnd 2:
Darcy 109
Thomas 107
Sanders 99
McKercher 95
Roberts 94
Moyle 90

Rnd 3:
Roberts 98
Gallagher 88
Dempsey 86
Conway 83
Rioli 79
Sanders 77

If I had 1 premo missing on each of those rounds then the replacement scores would be the 3rd best, 88, 99 & 86

Of course you'd have to nail all of those rookies, but Berry, Dempsey, Mckercher, Darcy, Thomas, Sanders, Roberts and Gallagher would have been in most teams. Even missing one or two still gives a score base of 74 and a high score of 94 as the 5th best scores.

It's a small sample size and relies on a very good bunch of rookies. I think the key though to replacing a premo score with a rookie is to have as many bites of the cherry as possible, so having a look at up to 26 players with 3 loops (one on each line) will maximise the chances. My current team gives me a look at 25 in round 2, 26 in round 3 and 26 again in round 4

25 in round 2? Flanders and Green?

 

[Russty_]

There's 7 rookies in my current team and with best 18 we'll get to drop the worst 5 scores, theoretically meaning that I keep the best 2 rookie scores.

Looking at the top 6 rookie scores over the first 3 rounds last year gives the below results (sorry, no good with tables)

Rnd 1:
Berry 104
Dempsey 96
McKercher 88
Answerth 80
Carroll 74
Duursma 71

Rnd 2:
Darcy 109
Thomas 107
Sanders 99
McKercher 95
Roberts 94
Moyle 90

Rnd 3:
Roberts 98
Gallagher 88
Dempsey 86
Conway 83
Rioli 79
Sanders 77

If I had 1 premo missing on each of those rounds then the replacement scores would be the 3rd best, 88, 99 & 86

Of course you'd have to nail all of those rookies, but Berry, Dempsey, Mckercher, Darcy, Thomas, Sanders, Roberts and Gallagher would have been in most teams. Even missing one or two still gives a score base of 74 and a high score of 94 as the 5th best scores. Also ignores a poo score from premo or MP

It's a small sample size and relies on a very good bunch of rookies. I think the key though to replacing a premo score with a rookie is to have as many bites of the cherry as possible, so having a look at up to 26 players with 3 loops (one on each line) will maximise the chances. My current team gives me a look at 25 in round 2, 26 in round 3 and 26 again in round 4

How would you have a loop on each line if you only have one or no, non playing players on the bench?

 

[OnTopBar]

25 in round 2? Flanders and Green?

Flanders and Stone

 

[OnTopBar]

P

How would you have a loop on each line if you only have one or no, non playing players on the bench?

Plan is to only have one player missing on each line per round, Flanders, Mills and Reid, Knevitt and El-Hawli, Stone, Smith and Kako.

K Smith into Allan
Smillie into Noddy/Hewitt
Lynch into Hewitt/Berry

Just an outline for now as it depends on rookies.

 

[freowho]

P

Plan is to only have one player missing on each line per round, Flanders, Mills and Reid, Knevitt and El-Hawli, Stone, Smith and Kako.

K Smith into Allan
Smillie into Noddy/Hewitt
Lynch into Hewitt/Berry

Just an outline for now as it depends on rookies.

I think it's a good plan. I would only do it if you thought the player was a genuinely good pick, not just for the sake of looping.

 

[aj74]

I guess we won't know until the end of the season what was the "best" way to start.

Until Round 1 rookies are known we are all just speculating on starting teams in any case.

I might have my blinkers on but I think (am hoping) that the mid price/value picks I start will work , just need to be aware of they are not working to be able to jump off and hope their are not other issues to fix at that time.

As for the rookies until we see them play they are all pretty much just names and prices at this stage.

Just need to start the right ones and hope they generate enough money to let the preferred upgrades happen and the downgrade options appear at the right time.

One thing that could help with your MPP upgrade costs is that anyone able to make it to say - 475k is possibly only 1.5 trades to upgrade, instead of the 2 I mentioned at first. Depends on the line you're upgrading and how much you got out of the rookie cull.

Doesn't sound like much of a difference but over 8 upgrades, that's 4 trades better on the initial calculations which should cover corrections or even half of your injuries for the year.

Still worth treading warily though and being ready to cull when the cheap upgrade presents

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Just when I thought my team couldn’t get any more MPM, we hear today that Coleman is thereabouts for round 1 and Wardlaw pings a hammy bringing Parker into play.

 

[BIGB0Y]

Just when I thought my team couldn’t get any more MPM, we hear today that Coleman is thereabouts for round 1 and Wardlaw pings a hammy bringing Parker into play.

Whats the right ratio you thinking? How many premos you starting?
Ive only got 6 genuine promos, 4x400k players, 6 mid prices and fielding 7 rookies. Its a bit daunting looking at it.

 

[Singapore Flyers]

Just when I thought my team couldn’t get any more MPM, we hear today that Coleman is thereabouts for round 1 and Wardlaw pings a hammy bringing Parker into play.

I just totally restructured my team because of Coleman and Philippou. I suspect with news filtering through that this will be non stop until R1.
Coleman R1 rather than R0 is interesting. Probably just a slip. But if it is R1, I think I wait until R4 and bring him. Don’t miss on any price rise and get 2 good looks to see his role.
Parker is an interesting one. He clearly gets a nice bump early if Wardlaw is out. But I suspect he declines a bit in the latter half. So, I think if picking him, he’s probably a stepping stone only. Not convinced he’s a top6 forward for the year. I think if I do pick him it will be with a view to get him out before he inflicts even more harm in the R12 bye.

 

[Singapore Flyers]

Whats the right ratio you thinking? How many premos you starting?
Ive only got 6 genuine promos, 4x400k players, 6 mid prices and fielding 7 rookies. It’s a bit daunting looking at it.

My theory is you need to have 9-10 who you believe are likely to be still with you (barring injury) at the end. 6-7 mid pricers as stepping stones. And 7 rookies.
My logic is 6 midpricers will need 9-10 trades to turn to premium. 7 rookies will require 20-21 trades to turn into premium. That means you would have 4-6 trades for injuries, sideways trades.
I am tempted to count Smith, Macrae and Daniel as likely keepers. I hope that at least 1 of Oliver or Mills can reach premium.

 

[Herbie66]

One thing that could help with your MPP upgrade costs is that anyone able to make it to say - 475k is possibly only 1.5 trades to upgrade, instead of the 2 I mentioned at first. Depends on the line you're upgrading and how much you got out of the rookie cull.

Doesn't sound like much of a difference but over 8 upgrades, that's 4 trades better on the initial calculations which should cover corrections or even half of your injuries for the year.

Still worth treading warily though and being ready to cull when the cheap upgrade presents

I must be the only person starting mid pricers 😉

Like everyone , available rookies will determine our final starting sides/structures.

3 rookie ruck line might even be viable especially with Round 2 , 3 & 4 being the Best 18 scores.

Flynn/premium @ Flex as "insurance"

Just need to work out the right balance .

If McKercher & Rivers can't get to that 105-110 average , is it pointless to start them both ? or factor in 2 trades to upgrade them.

Like many hoping Mills can return to premium scoring.

Question marks on Coleman.

Like many hoping Oliver can return to premium scoring.

can the likes of Ashcroft , Cerra , Day , Reid etc improve their game enough to get to 110+ or are we going to end up with multiple M9's that can't be fixed because we have other issues to deal with each round.

If Flynn is # 1 ruck does he stay on the park long enough that we benefit from scores and 💰 ?

Certainly hoping that Macrae , Smith , Parker & Daniel are forward keepers for the season.

Will we get 6-7 onfield starting rookies and enough on the bench that look viable to make 💰

Need to fast forward to Round 0 & Round 1 starting teams.

To much time thinking about things that we can't control at the moment

 

[BIGB0Y]

My theory is you need to have 9-10 who you believe are likely to be still with you (barring injury) at the end. 6-7 mid pricers as stepping stones. And 7 rookies.
My logic is 6 midpricers will need 9-10 trades to turn to premium. 7 rookies will require 20-21 trades to turn into premium. That means you would have 4-6 trades for injuries, sideways trades.
I am tempted to count Smith, Macrae and Daniel as likely keepers. I hope that at least 1 of Oliver or Mills can reach premium.

Thanks for that, im running with 6 premos, then ive got oliver, day, cerra and rivers. Hopefully 3 of them become keepers.
Out of Macrae, smith, parker, daniels, peatling and mills i get another 3 keepers. Fingers crossed for 12

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Whats the right ratio you thinking? How many premos you starting?
Ive only got 6 genuine promos, 4x400k players, 6 mid prices and fielding 7 rookies. Its a bit daunting looking at it.

My team changes hourly at this time of year but I certainly have a lot more midpricers than any other season at this point in time.

 

[OnTopBar]

One thing that could help with your MPP upgrade costs is that anyone able to make it to say - 475k is possibly only 1.5 trades to upgrade, instead of the 2 I mentioned at first. Depends on the line you're upgrading and how much you got out of the rookie cull.

Doesn't sound like much of a difference but over 8 upgrades, that's 4 trades better on the initial calculations which should cover corrections or even half of your injuries for the year.

Still worth treading warily though and being ready to cull when the cheap upgrade presents

I reckon those cheap upgrades will present themselves predominately in the forward line. If Phillipou is back around round 5/6 then 2 looks see him in around rounds 7/8, could be just a 1 trade upgrade from a $320k maxxed out rookie. I've currently got 2 spots available and think that a 90-95 average should be enough.
Coleman is another though is a little different as I'm setting the bar in defence at 110pts, I'm not sure that he can hit that so would necessitate 1.5 more trades to get him upgraded, plus the trade or two to get him in. He's probably worth it though even if he hits 90 or so, priced at 50 so a $200k increase but importantly, one less rookie on the field very early and being replaced by a 90's scorer.

 

[Manikato1]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1884369262229205101

View: https://twitter.com/petryan/status/1884369262229205101

Yesterday the same Peter Ryan reported in The Age that Coleman was unlikely for Rd 0. The term "thereabouts" indicates a fair amount of elasticity I guess.

 

[Post Nut Clarity]

Erasmus also might lock in a spot (BOG in the WAFL GF), Hutchinson slightly pricier but with a positional change looks great value

Whoops, I already had Erasmus locked in as well.

Hutchison is one I hadn’t considered but is definitely one to monitor!

Knevitt & Martin from Geelong are another two I’ll be watching closely.

Spargo and even Prior are another two options as well!

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Whoops, I already had Erasmus locked in as well.

Hutchison is one I hadn’t considered but is definitely one to monitor!

Knevitt & Martin from Geelong are another two I’ll be watching closely.

Spargo and even Prior are another two options as well!

Spargo still doing his own rehab per multiple training reports.

Won’t be ready round 1.

 

[Rowsus]

One thing that could help with your MPP upgrade costs is that anyone able to make it to say - 475k is possibly only 1.5 trades to upgrade, instead of the 2 I mentioned at first. Depends on the line you're upgrading and how much you got out of the rookie cull.

Doesn't sound like much of a difference but over 8 upgrades, that's 4 trades better on the initial calculations which should cover corrections or even half of your injuries for the year.

Still worth treading warily though and being ready to cull when the cheap upgrade presents

How many non-injured players averaging 93-95 do you see yourself trading out before rounds 12-14, particularly if they are Forwards?
That's what they'd need to average to hit your $475k figure.