Hey Rowsus,
I thought I would ask you about the timing of upgrading given your statistical nous.
My trades for next week were going to be as follows:
Dunstan to Hartung
Tyson to Selwood
JKH to Boomer
But there are 2 key problems with them:
1. Tyson is scoring better than Selwood! Is it worth keeping him until he drops off and trading my other rookies instead? (Problem is, my only other rookies peaked are Polec and Langdon, same scenario!)
2. Am I right in thinking it's not a good idea trading in Boomer after a 180? He's surely not the best value at 515k? Who is better value though? Petrie, Cloke, Wingard and Westhoff are rubbish! Maybe wait a week or 2 for Tex/NRoo/Roughy?
Hey Footy,
to be honest, I think people are getting a little too excited over Polec!
107, 99, 71, 98, 107, 89, 141, 66 - $446,700 B/E ~62
The 141 drops out of his pricing cycle after round 10, and without it he is averaging 91.
A 91 average would see him heading to a peak price of about $452,000! Probably about where he will be after next week when he plays Hawthorn. Yes, he gets Melbourne and St Kilda after Hawthorn, and could score ok, but if he scores 85 against Hawthorn he will be priced at $456,800 with a B/E 125. He only has one score over 125, so he probably starts to lose money, and will only go up about $10k after the Hawthorn game.
Tyson is in a more tradeable position for most Coaches, being a round 10 player, but now everyone is rightly wanting to hold him.
111, 105, 94, 50, 49, 83, 112, 136, 122 $455,800 B/E~17
He has 4 scores better than Polecs 2nd best score, and take off his best score, like we did with Polec, and he's averaging 91, just like Polec! His next 2 games are bye, Port, Collingwood. If he scores 91 in each of those, he ends up about $492,000 B/E 116. He becomes an expensive M9 if you can afford to carry him, or a likely slightly underperforming M8, or a Cow that has reached it's potential, like Polec pretty much has.
Langdon is a whole different catagory, and should definitely be ridden out (kept) while he is producing scores like this. The big difference is, it's easier to accept something slightly sub-quality from a D6, than a M8.
$515k is high for Boomer, but if you like him over the others, take him, and damn the 179. If you wait, you have to wait about 5 weeks! 2 weeks for the 179 to cycle out, and another 3 weeks for his price to fall again. With North's draw, he's likely to keep scoring well.
