Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[anfa18]

Ablett senior kicked 108 goals in 14 games in 1993, that's an average of over 7.7 goals per game.

Ablett snr stats in 1993: total 17 games (dnp rounds 1, 3, 4, 10, 20).

124 goals - 7.29 average.
60 behinds - 3.5 average.
246 possessions (13 handballs LoL) - 14.4 average
111 mark (contested and uncontested combined) - 6.5 average

Only managed 13 Brownlow votes for the year.

 

[Mr.RoidRagers]

I/we need some forwards. Way too many inconsistent forwards only has me currently with Danger, Parker, Gray and Wingard who are all dpp's. The perma forwards are roller coasting all over the shop. Is it too much to expect one of them to bang out some consistent scores in the second half of the season?

 

[Monya Meow Meow]

Good morning Row.
I read your "crazy" trade in regards to bringing Langdon back in and find it quite interesting.
I have one defensive upgrade to be made this week and I could go Swallow instead.
I assume we can no longer ignore Swallow now even his boat has kinda sailed now.
Or do you think it would be better for me to go Hurn?
Please advise thank you.

 

[baz_machine]

Hi baz,
my first thought is, if you are waiting for NRoo to be sub $400k, you will be waiting a looooong time.

Just like to say Nroo current price is $399,000

 

[Sloth]

rowsus my friend - thinking of going s lloyd to franklin in rd 11. for this need lloyd to increase in $$ by 22k. what score would he need to pump out this week to achieve this. if he scores another 70 will that be enough?

 

[Deeman1]

rowsus my friend - thinking of going s lloyd to franklin in rd 11. for this need lloyd to increase in $$ by 22k. what score would he need to pump out this week to achieve this. if he scores another 70 will that be enough?

If Lloyd, scores (as per projected) 71 this week, then his price is expected to increase by $37,500.

So if he gets a 70, yes his price will increase enough for the Franklin trade in.

 

[Erich1036]

rowsus my friend - thinking of going s lloyd to franklin in rd 11. for this need lloyd to increase in $$ by 22k. what score would he need to pump out this week to achieve this. if he scores another 70 will that be enough?

If Lloyd, scores (as per projected) 71 this week, then his price is expected to increase by $37,500.

So if he gets a 70, yes his price will increase enough for the Franklin trade in.

Continuing on from Deeman, Lloyd would need around 38-39 points to increase $22,000. For your sake I hope Dimma doesn't hand Lloyd the green vest this week.

 

[Bobbie]

Thoughts on bringing Wingard in this week (for Ambrose)? I'm hoping he presents some value at $424K but I'm also aware he hasn't set the world on fire. The other option is to stretch the budget and get Dahlhaus instead but this would leave me with bugger all money ( I have $96K left after my other trades of Tyson>Selwood and JKH>Cameron).

Cheers.

 

[Erich1036]

Rowsus,
Son of God is averaging 151 now.
*** ?

I wonder back to when his Dad wowed us in late 80's and early 90's what God would have averaged in some of his hot patches over two months like Son of God is having now.

God from memory had stints before he became a full forward where he was wing/half forward and even could kick bags of 8 or 9 goals from there. Crazy stuff. Simply amazing his son as a midfielder in Supercoach era is wowing us with 150+ scores like no other in this decade.

If CD existed a decade or two earlier I just wonder whether God would have averaged even more. Considering the regular bags of goals he could kick and contested marks do you reckon he may have even averaged over 150 SC points for a full season ?

I wonder whom the next player in the league will be that challenges these stratospheres of scoring that Son of God has risen too.
I find it hard to believe any midfielder can average more.

If for some reason the trend of low scoring we currently in got changed and two or three superstar key forwards burst on the scene in Lockett and Ablett like pattern maybe it is possible. Hard to see it happening though.
Only Jeremy Cameron or Jesse Hogan of youngsters in league make me think any superstar key forwards can show up in coming years.

Right now the pattern is key forwards are not big goal kickers. If a coach had an Ablett or Lockett type they may change the game plan for their team in front half. Presently though, just seems 18 players on field trained all summer to run up and down the ground so key forwards are a dying breed it seems. Might be partly due because there are few key forwards capable of kicking big bags of goals.
Travis Cloke clearly one of better key forwards but if he kicked 5 goals it would be seen as a big day out for him.
If Lockett kicked 5 goals it was normal.
Different eras and coaching styles but wonder what the SC scores might of been for guys like Lockett and GOD on their seasons they kicked well over 100 goals and took a zillion contested marks.

I’ll give this a fair crack Oz as I am very interested myself!

The one thing we can do is work out Ablett’s DT average from season to season. It would look something like this:

[TABLE="width: 104"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Season
[/TD]
[TD]Team
[/TD]
[TD]No.
[/TD]
[TD]Games
[/TD]
[TD]Disposals
[/TD]
[TD]Kicks
[/TD]
[TD]Handballs
[/TD]
[TD]Marks
[/TD]
[TD]Tackles
[/TD]
[TD]Goals
[/TD]
[TD]Behinds
[/TD]
[TD]DT Avg.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1996
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]17
[/TD]
[TD]190
[/TD]
[TD]159
[/TD]
[TD]31
[/TD]
[TD]71
[/TD]
[TD]13
[/TD]
[TD]69
[/TD]
[TD]31
[/TD]
[TD]73.47
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1995
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]22
[/TD]
[TD]283
[/TD]
[TD]364
[/TD]
[TD]19
[/TD]
[TD]148
[/TD]
[TD]18
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD]85
[/TD]
[TD]111.95
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1994
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]25
[/TD]
[TD]293
[/TD]
[TD]263
[/TD]
[TD]30
[/TD]
[TD]130
[/TD]
[TD]15
[/TD]
[TD]129
[/TD]
[TD]79
[/TD]
[TD]86.08
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1993
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]17
[/TD]
[TD]246
[/TD]
[TD]233
[/TD]
[TD]13
[/TD]
[TD]111
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]124
[/TD]
[TD]60
[/TD]
[TD]110.12
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1992
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]21
[/TD]
[TD]385
[/TD]
[TD]324
[/TD]
[TD]61
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]33
[/TD]
[TD]72
[/TD]
[TD]54
[/TD]
[TD]98.38
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1991
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]12
[/TD]
[TD]165
[/TD]
[TD]144
[/TD]
[TD]21
[/TD]
[TD]55
[/TD]
[TD]20
[/TD]
[TD]28
[/TD]
[TD]27
[/TD]
[TD]76.17
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1990
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]17
[/TD]
[TD]271
[/TD]
[TD]224
[/TD]
[TD]47
[/TD]
[TD]100
[/TD]
[TD]21
[/TD]
[TD]75
[/TD]
[TD]43
[/TD]
[TD]96.65
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1989
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]23
[/TD]
[TD]446
[/TD]
[TD]378
[/TD]
[TD]68
[/TD]
[TD]151
[/TD]
[TD]29
[/TD]
[TD]87
[/TD]
[TD]54
[/TD]
[TD]105.00
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1988
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]21
[/TD]
[TD]295
[/TD]
[TD]253
[/TD]
[TD]42
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD]19
[/TD]
[TD]82
[/TD]
[TD]62
[/TD]
[TD]86.86
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1987
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]17
[/TD]
[TD]246
[/TD]
[TD]200
[/TD]
[TD]46
[/TD]
[TD]86
[/TD]
[TD]19
[/TD]
[TD]53
[/TD]
[TD]38
[/TD]
[TD]81.29
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1986
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]15
[/TD]
[TD]224
[/TD]
[TD]185
[/TD]
[TD]39
[/TD]
[TD]101
[/TD]
[TD]0
[/TD]
[TD]65
[/TD]
[TD]48
[/TD]
[TD]91.60
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1985
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]20
[/TD]
[TD]336
[/TD]
[TD]274
[/TD]
[TD]62
[/TD]
[TD]135
[/TD]
[TD]0
[/TD]
[TD]82
[/TD]
[TD]67
[/TD]
[TD]95.50
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1984
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]15
[/TD]
[TD]299
[/TD]
[TD]238
[/TD]
[TD]61
[/TD]
[TD]86
[/TD]
[TD]0
[/TD]
[TD]33
[/TD]
[TD]28
[/TD]
[TD]88.00
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1982
[/TD]
[TD]Hawthorn
[/TD]
[TD]35
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]68
[/TD]
[TD]47
[/TD]
[TD]21
[/TD]
[TD]26
[/TD]
[TD]0
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]13
[/TD]
[TD]69.00
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

I expected the DT averages to be much higher than that personally and I’m sure you did too. It can be accounted to an extreme lack of tackling which would also have affected his SC score.

Now I’m going to look at seasons in recent times where key forwards who take a lot of contested marks and kicked a lot of goals have dominated, to try to evaluate an estimable DT to SC ratio for Ablett.

Taylor Walker 2012 – DT: 87.1; SC: 100.2
Jonathan Brown 2005 – DT: 86.4; SC: 114.0
Jonathan Brown 2006 – DT: 110.3; SC: 140.5
Jonathan Brown 2007 – DT: 93.7; SC: 111.3
Jonathan Brown 2008 – DT: 87.6; SC: 99.8
Jonathan Brown 2009 – DT: 94.6; SC: 98.9
Jonathan Brown 2010 – DT: 86.9; SC: 97.7
Matthew Pavlich 2012 – DT: 95.0; SC: 111.0
Matthew Pavlich 2010 – DT: 91.7; SC: 99.3
Matthew Pavlich 2008 – DT: 99.3; SC: 110.5
Matthew Pavlich 2007 – DT: 102.0; SC: 115.6
Matthew Pavlich 2006 – DT: 90.9; SC: 108.3
Matthew Pavlich 2005 – DT: 91.1; SC: 111.2
Lance Franklin 2008 – DT: 96.5; SC: 107.0
Lance Franklin 2010 – DT: 99.4; SC: 107.5
Lance Franklin 2011 – DT: 101.7; SC: 110.8
Lance Franklin 2012 – DT: 101.2; SC: 115.5
Nick Riewoldt 2005 – DT: 88.7; SC: 106.6
Nick Riewoldt 2006 – DT: 96.7; SC: 117.2
Nick Riewoldt 2007 – DT: 99.4; SC: 114.2
Nick Riewoldt 2008 – DT: 99.4; SC: 114.0
Nick Riewoldt 2009 – DT: 106.5; SC: 113.1
Nick Riewoldt 2010 – DT: 94.4; SC: 108.9
Nick Riewoldt 2012 – DT: 85.7; SC: 95.9
Nick Riewoldt 2013 – DT: 103.1; SC: 105.1
Barry Hall 2005 – DT: 91.3; SC: 131.8
Barry Hall 2006 – DT: 90.8; SC: 117.8

The total of DT averages from above: 2571.4
The total of SC averages from above: 2983.7

Estimable DT to SC ratio: 1.16

Using this ratio, his SC averages from season to season would look like this:

[TABLE="width: 104"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Season
[/TD]
[TD]Team
[/TD]
[TD]No.
[/TD]
[TD]Games
[/TD]
[TD]Disposals
[/TD]
[TD]Kicks
[/TD]
[TD]Handballs
[/TD]
[TD]Marks
[/TD]
[TD]Tackles
[/TD]
[TD]Goals
[/TD]
[TD]Behinds
[/TD]
[TD]SC Avg.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1996
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]17
[/TD]
[TD]190
[/TD]
[TD]159
[/TD]
[TD]31
[/TD]
[TD]71
[/TD]
[TD]13
[/TD]
[TD]69
[/TD]
[TD]31
[/TD]
[TD]85.23
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1995
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]22
[/TD]
[TD]283
[/TD]
[TD]364
[/TD]
[TD]19
[/TD]
[TD]148
[/TD]
[TD]18
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD]85
[/TD]
[TD]129.86
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1994
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]25
[/TD]
[TD]293
[/TD]
[TD]263
[/TD]
[TD]30
[/TD]
[TD]130
[/TD]
[TD]15
[/TD]
[TD]129
[/TD]
[TD]79
[/TD]
[TD]99.85
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1993
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]17
[/TD]
[TD]246
[/TD]
[TD]233
[/TD]
[TD]13
[/TD]
[TD]111
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]124
[/TD]
[TD]60
[/TD]
[TD]127.74
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1992
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]21
[/TD]
[TD]385
[/TD]
[TD]324
[/TD]
[TD]61
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]33
[/TD]
[TD]72
[/TD]
[TD]54
[/TD]
[TD]114.12
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1991
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]12
[/TD]
[TD]165
[/TD]
[TD]144
[/TD]
[TD]21
[/TD]
[TD]55
[/TD]
[TD]20
[/TD]
[TD]28
[/TD]
[TD]27
[/TD]
[TD]88.36
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1990
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]17
[/TD]
[TD]271
[/TD]
[TD]224
[/TD]
[TD]47
[/TD]
[TD]100
[/TD]
[TD]21
[/TD]
[TD]75
[/TD]
[TD]43
[/TD]
[TD]112.11
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1989
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]23
[/TD]
[TD]446
[/TD]
[TD]378
[/TD]
[TD]68
[/TD]
[TD]151
[/TD]
[TD]29
[/TD]
[TD]87
[/TD]
[TD]54
[/TD]
[TD]121.80
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1988
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]21
[/TD]
[TD]295
[/TD]
[TD]253
[/TD]
[TD]42
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD]19
[/TD]
[TD]82
[/TD]
[TD]62
[/TD]
[TD]100.76
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1987
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]17
[/TD]
[TD]246
[/TD]
[TD]200
[/TD]
[TD]46
[/TD]
[TD]86
[/TD]
[TD]19
[/TD]
[TD]53
[/TD]
[TD]38
[/TD]
[TD]94.30
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1986
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]15
[/TD]
[TD]224
[/TD]
[TD]185
[/TD]
[TD]39
[/TD]
[TD]101
[/TD]
[TD]0
[/TD]
[TD]65
[/TD]
[TD]48
[/TD]
[TD]106.26
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1985
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]20
[/TD]
[TD]336
[/TD]
[TD]274
[/TD]
[TD]62
[/TD]
[TD]135
[/TD]
[TD]0
[/TD]
[TD]82
[/TD]
[TD]67
[/TD]
[TD]110.78
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1984
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]15
[/TD]
[TD]299
[/TD]
[TD]238
[/TD]
[TD]61
[/TD]
[TD]86
[/TD]
[TD]0
[/TD]
[TD]33
[/TD]
[TD]28
[/TD]
[TD]102.08
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1982
[/TD]
[TD]Hawthorn
[/TD]
[TD]35
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]68
[/TD]
[TD]47
[/TD]
[TD]21
[/TD]
[TD]26
[/TD]
[TD]0
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]13
[/TD]
[TD]80.04
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

This may not seem accurate but if we use this ratio on single games it seems a bit more accurate (not saying this is accurate, there are so many flaws in this it’s not funny!)

1989 Preliminary Final: 22 kicks, 10 marks, 8 goals – ‘SuperCoach’ score: 167
1989 v Richmond: 26 kicks, 4 handballs, 14 marks, 14 goals, 2 behinds – ‘Supercoach’ score: 248

Seem accurate enough in terms of those games?

Keen to know what you (Oz), Rowsus and others think of this. Just quickly put this together for some fun, obviously missing a lot of elements (match-winning goals will obviously eventuate in a higher score etc.) but this is what I think is the most accurate depiction of Ablett Snr’s SC scoring. And according to this, Gary Ablett Jnr takes the cake as best SC player of all time/best player of all time. And he shall no longer be known as Son of God, he just is one himself.

 

[Blue Dragons]

Hey Row,

Do you think its ridiculous if i only have 4 trades left after round 13 which would only be used for any LTIs?

I will have a complete team and at least 1 playing rookie in the back, midfield and forward line.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus

Cale Hooker. I brought him in and he has done a fabulous job. Nine rounds and six tons. However you thought he was just on a hot streak so now after the 44 I am at the cross roads. Time to move on or hold. After the byes Richmond (the clock is ticking on Hardwicke) GWS and Melbourne (not the easy beats everyone thought). Tempted to keep him. Thoughts?

Hi Man,
he's an interesting one. Averaged 107 in the first 5 games, and 81 in the next 4 games. The 81 is more in line with his history, and physical characteristics (199cm Def). It really comes down to the role he plays. When he plays a shutdown role he is an 80 point player, when he plays free/creative roles, he is a 100 point player. I'm no Essendon expert, but there are a few on this site. My thoughts would be this. If, after you have done your planned trades for this round, there is an opportunity to switch him to a player you are more confident in, then switch. If this isn't the case, don't spoil your planned trades, and keep an eye on him in rounds 11 and possibly 12, and jump off him if the warning bells ring.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus.

This is probably my biggest conundrum for the year. Given I might just get 18 players together this week Polec's whole score will probably count. I was always going to upgrade Tyson this week but now he looks like making another $40k to $50k. The extra money would purely be a bonus as I can still make my planned trades for this week and get Pendlebury and Selwood in. So my question is more about the value of points for the remainder of the year given that Tyson has the bye. I think I read somewhere that each trade is roughly worth 300 points (feel free to correct me on that). I was wondering if you had done any research on the dollar value of a point at various times of the year. Which is of greater value at this time of year, 97 points or $40,000?

Thanks

Hi freowho,
a complicated question that can be answered on many levels.
First the trade. I normally Work on a trade being worth 200 points. More early in the season, less late in the season, but an average of 200 points. Even this answer becomes complicated. Late in the season, a trade could potentially be worth 100's of points, in a dire scenario. You only have 22 selected players each week and your other 8 are now dead wood, Ablett breaks a leg with 4 rounds to go. If you have no trades, you lose around 500 points, if you have a trade, it is worth about 500 points. Complicated, but I work on a sliding scale where the average is 200.
$40,000 is a small amount, but can make a big difference. In general, with small amounts, I take a safety first approach, and say you may not use it all, and you may not use it 100% efficiently. I use a factor of $6,000/point/week to allow for this. So $40,000/$6000 x 13 rounds left = 87 points. So under that sum, I'd grab the 97 points. There are so many permutations and combinations that affect this outcome, but sometimes it's best to keep it simple. As to whether this is the right call, it's close to a line ball, if your gut disagrees, go with your gut.
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus just wanted to hear your thoughts on Sam Gibson? Could be a nice POD!

Hey brad,
Certainly a POD, but too risky for mine.
This type of POD risk is better taken in the Fwd/Def line. Remember, you really need him to average at least 108+, or he's a negative POD. Even with Norths good draw, I am not confident he can, particularly when Swallow hits stride again.

 

[Rowsus]

I/we need some forwards. Way too many inconsistent forwards only has me currently with Danger, Parker, Gray and Wingard who are all dpp's. The perma forwards are roller coasting all over the shop. Is it too much to expect one of them to bang out some consistent scores in the second half of the season?

Spot on Mr.Roid, the forwards have us pulling our hair out. I think getting them right, and how the surely inevitable Ruck carnage that is coming is handled, will quite possibly decide this years winner. I have no leads to give you as to who might suddenly be consistent in the 2nd half of the season. If I had to pluck one, I might go Roughie, who seems to play better in the 2nd half of the season.

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus,
Son of God is averaging 151 now.
*** ?

I wonder back to when his Dad wowed us in late 80's and early 90's what God would have averaged in some of his hot patches over two months like Son of God is having now.

Extraordinary, isn't Oz?! 60% of the SC public had him captain last week. Not just in their team, not loopholed as VC, but Captain.
He totally spanked me for breaking my own #1 selection rule (pick your 2 Captains first), and pushing my money-ball approach too far. I was confident pre-season I might pick him and Pendles up in rounds 6 and 9 for about a total of $100-$150k less than others paid for them. Instead, those 2 set about creating new SC records that just made my tactics look like what they were, ill-considered and a bit stupid. Still, I have learnt a lot about the money-ball approach this season, and next season I won't break rule #1!

Ablett senior kicked 108 goals in 14 games in 1993, that's an average of over 7.7 goals per game.

Ablett snr stats in 1993: total 17 games (dnp rounds 1, 3, 4, 10, 20).

124 goals - 7.29 average.
60 behinds - 3.5 average.
246 possessions (13 handballs LoL) - 14.4 average
111 mark (contested and uncontested combined) - 6.5 average

Only managed 13 Brownlow votes for the year.

Ablett snr suffered greatly under the "fairest" section of the Brownlow rules. He was regularly reported, and even in games where he wasn't, he often sailed close to the edge, and that was enough sometimes for umpires to exclude from their consideration. It's wrong, but it happened back then.

I&#8217;ll give this a fair crack Oz as I am very interested myself!

The one thing we can do is work out Ablett&#8217;s DT average from season to season. It would look something like this:

[TABLE="width: 104"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Season
[/TD]
[TD]Team
[/TD]
[TD]No.
[/TD]
[TD]Games
[/TD]
[TD]Disposals
[/TD]
[TD]Kicks
[/TD]
[TD]Handballs
[/TD]
[TD]Marks
[/TD]
[TD]Tackles
[/TD]
[TD]Goals
[/TD]
[TD]Behinds
[/TD]
[TD]DT Avg.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1996
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]17
[/TD]
[TD]190
[/TD]
[TD]159
[/TD]
[TD]31
[/TD]
[TD]71
[/TD]
[TD]13
[/TD]
[TD]69
[/TD]
[TD]31
[/TD]
[TD]73.47
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1995
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]22
[/TD]
[TD]283
[/TD]
[TD]364
[/TD]
[TD]19
[/TD]
[TD]148
[/TD]
[TD]18
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD]85
[/TD]
[TD]111.95
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1994
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]25
[/TD]
[TD]293
[/TD]
[TD]263
[/TD]
[TD]30
[/TD]
[TD]130
[/TD]
[TD]15
[/TD]
[TD]129
[/TD]
[TD]79
[/TD]
[TD]86.08
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1993
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]17
[/TD]
[TD]246
[/TD]
[TD]233
[/TD]
[TD]13
[/TD]
[TD]111
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]124
[/TD]
[TD]60
[/TD]
[TD]110.12
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1992
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]21
[/TD]
[TD]385
[/TD]
[TD]324
[/TD]
[TD]61
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]33
[/TD]
[TD]72
[/TD]
[TD]54
[/TD]
[TD]98.38
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1991
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]12
[/TD]
[TD]165
[/TD]
[TD]144
[/TD]
[TD]21
[/TD]
[TD]55
[/TD]
[TD]20
[/TD]
[TD]28
[/TD]
[TD]27
[/TD]
[TD]76.17
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1990
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]17
[/TD]
[TD]271
[/TD]
[TD]224
[/TD]
[TD]47
[/TD]
[TD]100
[/TD]
[TD]21
[/TD]
[TD]75
[/TD]
[TD]43
[/TD]
[TD]96.65
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1989
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]23
[/TD]
[TD]446
[/TD]
[TD]378
[/TD]
[TD]68
[/TD]
[TD]151
[/TD]
[TD]29
[/TD]
[TD]87
[/TD]
[TD]54
[/TD]
[TD]105.00
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1988
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]21
[/TD]
[TD]295
[/TD]
[TD]253
[/TD]
[TD]42
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD]19
[/TD]
[TD]82
[/TD]
[TD]62
[/TD]
[TD]86.86
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1987
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]17
[/TD]
[TD]246
[/TD]
[TD]200
[/TD]
[TD]46
[/TD]
[TD]86
[/TD]
[TD]19
[/TD]
[TD]53
[/TD]
[TD]38
[/TD]
[TD]81.29
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1986
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]15
[/TD]
[TD]224
[/TD]
[TD]185
[/TD]
[TD]39
[/TD]
[TD]101
[/TD]
[TD]0
[/TD]
[TD]65
[/TD]
[TD]48
[/TD]
[TD]91.60
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1985
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]20
[/TD]
[TD]336
[/TD]
[TD]274
[/TD]
[TD]62
[/TD]
[TD]135
[/TD]
[TD]0
[/TD]
[TD]82
[/TD]
[TD]67
[/TD]
[TD]95.50
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1984
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]15
[/TD]
[TD]299
[/TD]
[TD]238
[/TD]
[TD]61
[/TD]
[TD]86
[/TD]
[TD]0
[/TD]
[TD]33
[/TD]
[TD]28
[/TD]
[TD]88.00
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1982
[/TD]
[TD]Hawthorn
[/TD]
[TD]35
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]68
[/TD]
[TD]47
[/TD]
[TD]21
[/TD]
[TD]26
[/TD]
[TD]0
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]13
[/TD]
[TD]69.00
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

I expected the DT averages to be much higher than that personally and I&#8217;m sure you did too. It can be accounted to an extreme lack of tackling which would also have affected his SC score.

Now I&#8217;m going to look at seasons in recent times where key forwards who take a lot of contested marks and kicked a lot of goals have dominated, to try to evaluate an estimable DT to SC ratio for Ablett.

Taylor Walker 2012 &#8211; DT: 87.1; SC: 100.2
Jonathan Brown 2005 &#8211; DT: 86.4; SC: 114.0
Jonathan Brown 2006 &#8211; DT: 110.3; SC: 140.5
Jonathan Brown 2007 &#8211; DT: 93.7; SC: 111.3
Jonathan Brown 2008 &#8211; DT: 87.6; SC: 99.8
Jonathan Brown 2009 &#8211; DT: 94.6; SC: 98.9
Jonathan Brown 2010 &#8211; DT: 86.9; SC: 97.7
Matthew Pavlich 2012 &#8211; DT: 95.0; SC: 111.0
Matthew Pavlich 2010 &#8211; DT: 91.7; SC: 99.3
Matthew Pavlich 2008 &#8211; DT: 99.3; SC: 110.5
Matthew Pavlich 2007 &#8211; DT: 102.0; SC: 115.6
Matthew Pavlich 2006 &#8211; DT: 90.9; SC: 108.3
Matthew Pavlich 2005 &#8211; DT: 91.1; SC: 111.2
Lance Franklin 2008 &#8211; DT: 96.5; SC: 107.0
Lance Franklin 2010 &#8211; DT: 99.4; SC: 107.5
Lance Franklin 2011 &#8211; DT: 101.7; SC: 110.8
Lance Franklin 2012 &#8211; DT: 101.2; SC: 115.5
Nick Riewoldt 2005 &#8211; DT: 88.7; SC: 106.6
Nick Riewoldt 2006 &#8211; DT: 96.7; SC: 117.2
Nick Riewoldt 2007 &#8211; DT: 99.4; SC: 114.2
Nick Riewoldt 2008 &#8211; DT: 99.4; SC: 114.0
Nick Riewoldt 2009 &#8211; DT: 106.5; SC: 113.1
Nick Riewoldt 2010 &#8211; DT: 94.4; SC: 108.9
Nick Riewoldt 2012 &#8211; DT: 85.7; SC: 95.9
Nick Riewoldt 2013 &#8211; DT: 103.1; SC: 105.1
Barry Hall 2005 &#8211; DT: 91.3; SC: 131.8
Barry Hall 2006 &#8211; DT: 90.8; SC: 117.8

The total of DT averages from above: 2571.4
The total of SC averages from above: 2983.7

Estimable DT to SC ratio: 1.16

Using this ratio, his SC averages from season to season would look like this:

[TABLE="width: 104"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Season
[/TD]
[TD]Team
[/TD]
[TD]No.
[/TD]
[TD]Games
[/TD]
[TD]Disposals
[/TD]
[TD]Kicks
[/TD]
[TD]Handballs
[/TD]
[TD]Marks
[/TD]
[TD]Tackles
[/TD]
[TD]Goals
[/TD]
[TD]Behinds
[/TD]
[TD]SC Avg.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1996
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]17
[/TD]
[TD]190
[/TD]
[TD]159
[/TD]
[TD]31
[/TD]
[TD]71
[/TD]
[TD]13
[/TD]
[TD]69
[/TD]
[TD]31
[/TD]
[TD]85.23
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1995
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]22
[/TD]
[TD]283
[/TD]
[TD]364
[/TD]
[TD]19
[/TD]
[TD]148
[/TD]
[TD]18
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD]85
[/TD]
[TD]129.86
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1994
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]25
[/TD]
[TD]293
[/TD]
[TD]263
[/TD]
[TD]30
[/TD]
[TD]130
[/TD]
[TD]15
[/TD]
[TD]129
[/TD]
[TD]79
[/TD]
[TD]99.85
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1993
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]17
[/TD]
[TD]246
[/TD]
[TD]233
[/TD]
[TD]13
[/TD]
[TD]111
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]124
[/TD]
[TD]60
[/TD]
[TD]127.74
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1992
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]21
[/TD]
[TD]385
[/TD]
[TD]324
[/TD]
[TD]61
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]33
[/TD]
[TD]72
[/TD]
[TD]54
[/TD]
[TD]114.12
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1991
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]12
[/TD]
[TD]165
[/TD]
[TD]144
[/TD]
[TD]21
[/TD]
[TD]55
[/TD]
[TD]20
[/TD]
[TD]28
[/TD]
[TD]27
[/TD]
[TD]88.36
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1990
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]17
[/TD]
[TD]271
[/TD]
[TD]224
[/TD]
[TD]47
[/TD]
[TD]100
[/TD]
[TD]21
[/TD]
[TD]75
[/TD]
[TD]43
[/TD]
[TD]112.11
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1989
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]23
[/TD]
[TD]446
[/TD]
[TD]378
[/TD]
[TD]68
[/TD]
[TD]151
[/TD]
[TD]29
[/TD]
[TD]87
[/TD]
[TD]54
[/TD]
[TD]121.80
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1988
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]21
[/TD]
[TD]295
[/TD]
[TD]253
[/TD]
[TD]42
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD]19
[/TD]
[TD]82
[/TD]
[TD]62
[/TD]
[TD]100.76
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1987
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]17
[/TD]
[TD]246
[/TD]
[TD]200
[/TD]
[TD]46
[/TD]
[TD]86
[/TD]
[TD]19
[/TD]
[TD]53
[/TD]
[TD]38
[/TD]
[TD]94.30
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1986
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]15
[/TD]
[TD]224
[/TD]
[TD]185
[/TD]
[TD]39
[/TD]
[TD]101
[/TD]
[TD]0
[/TD]
[TD]65
[/TD]
[TD]48
[/TD]
[TD]106.26
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1985
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]20
[/TD]
[TD]336
[/TD]
[TD]274
[/TD]
[TD]62
[/TD]
[TD]135
[/TD]
[TD]0
[/TD]
[TD]82
[/TD]
[TD]67
[/TD]
[TD]110.78
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1984
[/TD]
[TD]Geelong
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]15
[/TD]
[TD]299
[/TD]
[TD]238
[/TD]
[TD]61
[/TD]
[TD]86
[/TD]
[TD]0
[/TD]
[TD]33
[/TD]
[TD]28
[/TD]
[TD]102.08
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1982
[/TD]
[TD]Hawthorn
[/TD]
[TD]35
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]68
[/TD]
[TD]47
[/TD]
[TD]21
[/TD]
[TD]26
[/TD]
[TD]0
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]13
[/TD]
[TD]80.04
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

This may not seem accurate but if we use this ratio on single games it seems a bit more accurate (not saying this is accurate, there are so many flaws in this it&#8217;s not funny!)

1989 Preliminary Final: 22 kicks, 10 marks, 8 goals &#8211; &#8216;SuperCoach&#8217; score: 167
1989 v Richmond: 26 kicks, 4 handballs, 14 marks, 14 goals, 2 behinds &#8211; &#8216;Supercoach&#8217; score: 248

Seem accurate enough in terms of those games?

Keen to know what you (Oz), Rowsus and others think of this. Just quickly put this together for some fun, obviously missing a lot of elements (match-winning goals will obviously eventuate in a higher score etc.) but this is what I think is the most accurate depiction of Ablett Snr&#8217;s SC scoring. And according to this, Gary Ablett Jnr takes the cake as best SC player of all time/best player of all time. And he shall no longer be known as Son of God, he just is one himself.

Extraordinary piece of work and gets my 110% tick of approval. Nice one Erich!

 

[freowho]

Hi freowho,
a complicated question that can be answered on many levels.
First the trade. I normally Work on a trade being worth 200 points. More early in the season, less late in the season, but an average of 200 points. Even this answer becomes complicated. Late in the season, a trade could potentially be worth 100's of points, in a dire scenario. You only have 22 selected players each week and your other 8 are now dead wood, Ablett breaks a leg with 4 rounds to go. If you have no trades, you lose around 500 points, if you have a trade, it is worth about 500 points. Complicated, but I work on a sliding scale where the average is 200.
$40,000 is a small amount, but can make a big difference. In general, with small amounts, I take a safety first approach, and say you may not use it all, and you may not use it 100% efficiently. I use a factor of $6,000/point/week to allow for this. So $40,000/$6000 x 13 rounds left = 87 points. So under that sum, I'd grab the 97 points. There are so many permutations and combinations that affect this outcome, but sometimes it's best to keep it simple. As to whether this is the right call, it's close to a line ball, if your gut disagrees, go with your gut.
Good luck

Thanks Rowsus

I thought you might have something worked out for this question and it does seem like a toss of the coin decision. I have decided to be grateful that Tyson is now worth more than I had planned and trade him for an upgrade.

 

[Rowsus]

Good morning Row.
I read your "crazy" trade in regards to bringing Langdon back in and find it quite interesting.
I have one defensive upgrade to be made this week and I could go Swallow instead.
I assume we can no longer ignore Swallow now even his boat has kinda sailed now.
Or do you think it would be better for me to go Hurn?
Please advise thank you.

Evening MMM,
a lot comes down to what sort of team and cash position you are in. If you still have 4 or 5 upgrades to make, you probably go Hurn, if you only have 3, and your Cash/Cash generation is ok you probably go Swallow. You can probably afford to spend a little more, as you finish your last 2 spots, but probably still need to save a bit, if you still have a number to go.

 

[Rowsus]

Just like to say Nroo current price is $399,000

Touche'



He did surprise me, I thought he might just keep it above $400k, and with the 31 dropping out of his pricing cycle, I thought he might keep it above that level. $185k drop in 5 weeks! Extraordinary!

 

[Rowsus]

rowsus my friend - thinking of going s lloyd to franklin in rd 11. for this need lloyd to increase in $$ by 22k. what score would he need to pump out this week to achieve this. if he scores another 70 will that be enough?

If Lloyd, scores (as per projected) 71 this week, then his price is expected to increase by $37,500.

So if he gets a 70, yes his price will increase enough for the Franklin trade in.

Continuing on from Deeman, Lloyd would need around 38-39 points to increase $22,000. For your sake I hope Dimma doesn't hand Lloyd the green vest this week.

Hey sloth,
I make it a 36, maybe 37 to get $22k increase, but close enough.

 

[Rowsus]

Thoughts on bringing Wingard in this week (for Ambrose)? I'm hoping he presents some value at $424K but I'm also aware he hasn't set the world on fire. The other option is to stretch the budget and get Dahlhaus instead but this would leave me with bugger all money ( I have $96K left after my other trades of Tyson>Selwood and JKH>Cameron).

Cheers.

I must declare my bias here, I'm a Wingard fan, so I'm going to say go Wingard.