Position 2025: DEFENDER DISCUSSION

[OnTopBar]

I'm tempted to go a bit weak in defence, there's a lot of value in the forwards and mids that I don't want to miss out on.

Milera D4, Allan D5, Reid/Smith/Busslinger/Leake/Whitlock or the likes to fill D6-D8.

Realistically not expecting any of the defence rookies to feature in my best 18 scores, yes, they'll be needed for round 1, but providing they're playing I see them as a round 5 problem, or something that has to be addressed on or before round 5.

Ther will also be the DPP additions come round 6 so I really see their poor production just being an issue in two rounds.

 

[Santoz]

Currently my D1 to D4 are :-

Sheezel
Clark
NWM
Mills

Z Reid & Busslinger at D7 & D8

Hoping Bo Allan can be a viable starter at D5/ reports on him so far positive, looking fwd to seeing in the preseason games. Hoping 1 more def rookie becomes a viable starter - maybe SEH or Leake for example can impress over the next few weeks.

Liking Mills at D5 with Allan at D6. Reid should be good to start until he breaks down again. El Hawli wouldn't be too far behind.

 

[Under The Dome]

Whitfield, Clark, Roberts // Whitlock
Perryman, Mills, Prior // Jepson

Top three were excellent in the back end of 2024. Hoping their game style has them on par for growth. I've liked watching Perryman as a mid in the past. I like Prior for some rebound, intercepts and could be double rise in before his bye. Rookies playing some main and easy switches with cash in the bank.

 

[BIGB0Y]

Whitfield, Clark, Roberts // Whitlock
Perryman, Mills, Prior // Jepson

Top three were excellent in the back end of 2024. Hoping their game style has them on par for growth. I've liked watching Perryman as a mid in the past. I like Prior for some rebound, intercepts and could be double rise in before his bye. Rookies playing some main and easy switches with cash in the bank.

It's out of Robert's or Short for me next couple of weeks will decide that

 

[BlufBlufShuv]

Jaiden P discussed Short with Pig Mentality in a very recent DrSC YouTube vid. Worth checking for those interested in Short.

 

[Darkie]

Jaiden P discussed Short with Pig Mentality in a very recent DrSC YouTube vid. Worth checking for those interested in Short.

Thanks for the heads up. Was the conclusion for Short positive/negative/indifferent as you saw it?

 

[BlufBlufShuv]

Thanks for the heads up. Was the conclusion for Short positive/negative/indifferent as you saw it?

I think negative for the player himself as he seems to have dropped away statistically in some areas indicating something going on with him, perhaps physical decline. However, if the Tigers game style changes from the Dimma knock it on at all costs era, as it probably should with all their youth, he really could get a significant bump in scoring. They probably should be looking at a more possession chip mark type game in which case he might well justify the investment. Upshot is have to wait to see what the Tigers say in preseason about any style change and what they do in their preseason match.

 

[Darkie]

I think negative for the player himself as he seems to have dropped away statistically in some areas indicating something going on with him, perhaps physical decline. However, if the Tigers game style changes from the Dimma knock it on at all costs era, as it probably should with all their youth, he really could get a significant bump in scoring. They probably should be looking at a more possession chip mark type game in which case he might well justify the investment. Upshot is have to wait to see what the Tigers say in preseason about any style change and what they do in their preseason match.

That’s a great summary, thank you.

I must admit I didn’t watch much of the Tigers last year, but I have seen suggestions that certain players were checked out at times during the season, and that they seemed unhappy and not necessarily giving their all. Bolton and Short are the two that come to mind (not that I know how accurate the comments were). Perhaps there is some truth in that, and it could be being <100% committed rather than being unfit. As you say, time will tell.

 

[BlufBlufShuv]

Jaiden pointed out that players from these bottom teams can get a type of significant positive scaling because of how the SC scoring system works. Think of McGovern, Eliot Yeo, Liam Duggan having his best SC years last two seasons etc. He explains it well in the interview. He currently has Short in his SC team, he said.

 

[Connoisseur]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1891109243107115307

 

[Herbie66]

Roberts average with McInerney in = 77
McInerney out = 111

A season of thirds

Round 0 to 9 = 9 games @ 79

Round 11 sub , scored 27
Round 13 scored 58
Round 14 sub , scored 5
Round 15 & 16 DNP
Round 17 subbed off , scored 36

Round 18 to 24 (McInerney got subbed off in Round 18) = 7 games @ 111

QF scored 53 , McInerney subbed off
PF scored 71
GF scored 87

 

[Gruffles]

Jaiden pointed out that players from these bottom teams can get a type of significant positive scaling because of how the SC scoring system works. Think of McGovern, Eliot Yeo, Liam Duggan having his best SC years last two seasons etc. He explains it well in the interview. He currently has Short in his SC team, he said.

How did Jaiden go in SC last year do you know?

 

[BlufBlufShuv]

How did Jaiden go in SC last year do you know?

I don't honestly know, if he went with some of his preseason picks from 2024 probably not that great. He was big on Karl Amon based on data from late 2023 but the Hawks changed their game style, for example. Like all of us he goes in blind to what changes teams are making behind closed doors over the off season; as a data guy he was using data from the previous season and that hurt him with the Karl Amon pick.

His interviews and insights on the scoring system are top notch, he's very good at retrospectively pointing out trends and the reasons why players succeeded, but like all of us less good at seeing into the future.

 

[Manikato1]

As I understand it he was a Fantasy player first and SC has only been an addition in the past couple of years. A lot of the trends apply to both codes but Fantasy is much more forgiving than SC.

I downloaded the four years of SC scoring data on his website and collated it by player and it is interesting to see where players get their points from and how that changes over the seasons. But that does not help forecasting how a players future role will change season by season.

 

[wogitalia]

I think negative for the player himself as he seems to have dropped away statistically in some areas indicating something going on with him, perhaps physical decline. However, if the Tigers game style changes from the Dimma knock it on at all costs era, as it probably should with all their youth, he really could get a significant bump in scoring. They probably should be looking at a more possession chip mark type game in which case he might well justify the investment. Upshot is have to wait to see what the Tigers say in preseason about any style change and what they do in their preseason match.

FWIW, the gameplan against WCE was very, very slow and possession based. Posted in the preseason thread prior to coming here and seeing your post but Short was the guy I thought of most definitely as a potential benefactor of it.

Not to overread into it but if they play like that then Short would do well to not score very well.

Short has had a lot of continuity issues the last two seasons with calf issues, think he may have also had a hamstring in there as well as getting thrown in the midfield, down back and even up forward at times (possibly because of the injury issues). This is both a positive and a negative. Positively it explains the drop as the body just hasn't been right. Negatively is that soft tissue injuries tend to recur and tend to get worse with age. Thinking of guys at similar ages to have calf problems and Hannebery comes to mind instantly to me. Guys like Brad Johnson and Deledio a bit older but were also derailed by them as they tend to be a bit of a circular problem, you hurt the calf so you lose fitness and then you injure the calf trying to regain the fitness so you lose the fitness repeat ad nauseum until you just can't get on the park at all.

Think he's a very risky pick but there's so few options right now that he might still be the best available choice.

 

[BlufBlufShuv]

Like you @wogitalia, I really liked Blight from that game, too, as this slow style should help him plus he has the intercept capability. Ton of ball to be had in Tigers defense. I liked him so much I put Blight into my current team. Only think one defensive rookie is viable on field at this stage, hence leaning into MPs like Blight.

 

[Herbie66]

Getting closer

D1 Sheezel ✓

D2 Flanders or Ryan or Whitfield or Zorko or McGovern or Sinclair or Houston or Martin or Clark or Ridley or NWM or Holmes or Stewart or Sicily

Even thinking Hinge or Vlastuin and just wait

Laird gets DPP he might end up being in the Top 6-8 again as well.

D3 Short - almost a ✓

D4 Mills ✓

D5 Schoenmaker (price point) - can he defend though ?

D6 Kiddy (price point only at this stage)

D 7 Allan

D8 Reid 🙏 can he stay on the park long enough to make money.

I am sure their will be other defender priced rookies that show up between now and Round 1

Wait for the next lot of match Sims

Sheezel , Vlastuin (?) , Short (?) , Mills , Milera , O'Sullivan / Reid , Whitlock

Allan on the mid bench as a bit of "insurance"

Might mean 6 onfield rookies

 

[Toothless Tigers]

I think negative for the player himself as he seems to have dropped away statistically in some areas indicating something going on with him, perhaps physical decline. However, if the Tigers game style changes from the Dimma knock it on at all costs era, as it probably should with all their youth, he really could get a significant bump in scoring. They probably should be looking at a more possession chip mark type game in which case he might well justify the investment. Upshot is have to wait to see what the Tigers say in preseason about any style change and what they do in their preseason match.

Nankervis, Taranto, Hopper, Lynch, M. Rioli Jr, Balta, Prestia, Short, Vlaustin, Broad were all missing, very hard to be certain on the type of game style considering the player omissions.

 

[donnybuang]

As I understand it he was a Fantasy player first and SC has only been an addition in the past couple of years. A lot of the trends apply to both codes but Fantasy is much more forgiving than SC.

I downloaded the four years of SC scoring data on his website and collated it by player and it is interesting to see where players get their points from and how that changes over the seasons. But that does not help forecasting how a players future role will change season by season.

Or if the AFL makes a rule interpretation change mid season

 

[Connoisseur]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1891624124075700533