Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Congrats on breaking the ton Rowsus, (raises the bat in the air)

Quick question regarding F6, N Roo, Buddy or Wingard ?
Like Buddy, but he does have history of injury and suspension.
N Roo, not sure, gun player but looks to be carrying some sort of injury, his bye rest may of helped though.
Wingard has dpp and apart from his 70 and 53, has looked pretty solid.

Thinking Wingard but would appreciate your thoughts !

Thanks Creeker,
It's tough one, even RAMP says there is only 3 or 4/game between the three of them. I think it is out of Wingard and Buddy. Buddy will give you more Highs and Lows, and Wingard will be more of a comfortable ride. I believe Wingards round 3 and 5 scores were injury affected (either side of him missing round 4), without those 2 scores he is averaging 94. I think Buddy may average more than Wingard from here, but I am also guessing he'll miss a game or two, that makes me say Wingard just over Buddy.
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

Barlow vs Goddard? tough one

I think Barlow, easy. but I'm prepared to admit some good judges here would say Goddard. Goddard has only 7 130+ games in his last 71 games, I think he has lost his ability to consistently score large. In 2010 he managed 130+ 15 times in 26 games including finals!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus

Congrats on the 100 pages. Massive effort and we all appreciate the time you take in responding to the questions.

I have come through the byes ok and even managed to break back into the top 1000. I have 14 trades and around $76K. I am planning on going Taylor to Shenton. I will also be parting ways with Polec so I'll have around $640K to spend on a mid upgrade. I don't want to blow it all on JPK (as much as I'd like him) as I still have a couple of upgrades to make.

My initial thoughts are Watson or Rocky. Any thoughts on these two or any other suggestions. At this stage in the season I only want keepers so I have discounted the likes of Griffen as I can't see him being one of the top mids.

This would give me a midfield of Ablett, Pendles, Beams, Swan, Selwood, Libba, Watson/Rocky/?, Hallahan (Shenton, Hartung).

My defence is okay with Langford left to upgrade at D6, and my forwards are almost complete with Higgins as F6.

Cheers

Hi Bobbie,
thanks for that, and well done how well you are doing.
I think Watson. I am concerned that most of Rockies good scores come in wins, and Brisbane may only win 2 more games for the season. Rocky does have 2 good scores in losing teams, one of which was 35 possessions and 3 goals. I can't see him replicating those figures too often in losing teams. I think I'd go Watson.
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

congrats seem to be in order so congrats, not only on the 100 pages but also on the thought provoking content. so i've called on you a bit lately and this might be my most important question.

Want to finalise my mids. Have GAJ, Pendles, Beams, Selwood, Waston, Cotchin, M Murphy. Will have Hallahan and L Taylor on the bench for now. No budget constraints.

My initial thought is JPK. Other options include saving a little cash and getting one of Fyfe or Rocky. Or, wait until Stevie J bottoms out (although i have doubts on his average being sustainable). Or really save some dollars and downgrade to Griffin, Priddis, Barlow. Still need to fill D6 at some stage (Langdon doing fine for me though), F6 and perhaps correct a couple of mistakes in H Taylor, R Murphy and potentially Petrie, although i have belief he'll turn it around. Mids is my focus for now i think.

thanks mate....look forward to your thoughts!

The Mids you don't have, that I believe are a chance to be in the top 8 Mid scorers from here are: JPK, Fyfe, Rocky, SJ, Dal and Barlow. You'll note I don't have Goddard in there, but I freely admit some better judges than me rate him a chance to keep scoring highly.

JPK - in 2012, when he averaged 120, he averaged 12 K's, 16 HB's, 1.1 Goal (0.6 G Ass), 16.7 CP's and had a DE of 68% and TOG 86%. Last season his figures were: average 105, 10 K's, 17 HB's, 0.6 Goal (0.7 G Ass), 16.4 CP's, DE 66%, TOG 85% - so his average fell 15 on the back of 2 less kicks, 0.5 Goal less, and a slightly lower DE %. It really demonstrates how fragile a 115+ average can be! This season his numbers are: average 124, 13 K's, 19 HB's, 0.6 Goals (0.7 G Ass), 18 CP's, DE 65% and TOG 84% - His average has risen 19 on the back of 3 K's, 2 HB's and 1.6 CP's more this season. All maintainable. Definitely a chance to keep going 115+ from here.
Fyfe - played only 79 games, and is averaging 120 this season. Could be the next Pendlebury.
Rocky - his 140+ scores in the last season and a bit came in: 7, 12, 21 point wins, a 26 point loss, and 53 point loss with 35 possessions and 3 goals. He could be one out of the box, but he'd need to be to pump out the scores we want in a side that might only win 2 more games for the season. He can't go 35 possessions and 3 goals in losing teams too often.
SJ - beats up on weaker teams. From round 12 Geelong play: Carl, StK, GC, Ess, WB, Melb, GWS, Nth, before he gets Crowleyed again. He could average 125 in that stretch!
Dal - scores in wins this season: 119, 128, 134, 135, 140 - ave 131, scores in losses this season: 75, 94, 96, 106 - ave 93. North's draw includes games against: WC, Rich, Ade, Melb, Bris, Haw, StK, Car, Geel, GWS, WB, Ade, Melb. (interstate games) You would think North can win 8 of those games. At his current season averages, that gives him (8 x 131) + (4 x 93)/12 = 118/game from here. I know it's not that easy, but you get the idea.
Barlow - The poor mans Swan (pre-2014), if Fyfe is the poor mans Pendlebury. Forgive him his first 2 games back from a ligament strain, and he's averaged 120 in the other 3 games. Scored 100+ in every game from rnds 7 to 21 last season (missed round 14, and had a bye round 11) and averaged 118 in those 13 games, so can maintain a 115+ over a long period.
Goddard - In 2010 he posted 15 130+ scores, including 2 GF's. Since then he has only recorded 7 130+ scores in 71 games. Those scores all came in winning games, and the margins were: 6, 20, 24, 30, 39, 65, 92. Too many question marks to be taken with confidence. I think his level these days is in the 108 range, and I think you might want better than that for your M8.

On value, I'd go Goddard, Barlow and SJ (after his B/E 168 disappears in a game or 2). On a pure points basis, I'd go Fyfe, SJ and JPK.
Good luck.

Hi ****, thanks for that. Call on me as often as you like.
I still like Fyfe on the points basis. His upside is hard to resist.
Good luck
Good luck

 

[vc_bombers]

Hi Rowsus,

Congrats on the ton.

I know a few supercoaches around have thought of trading him out, but what are your thoughts on trading Jarryd Roughead in? Good scoring history, low breakeven and GWS are terrible

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus!

I was looking at Jed Adcock's SC record and I noticed he averaged 110.7 in 2007 from 22 games. However, his average in 2008 was only 75.5 from 21 games (looks like he got injured right at the start of the Rd 1 game) - a difference of 35.2 points!
My question is, has any other player had such a dramatic 'fall from grace' in just one completed season where they played least 18 games?

Also, great work on reaching 100 pages for this thread. Always love reading your work!

Hey 30Buckets, thanks for that.
Just off the top of my head:
Hodge 2008 - 17/118.4, 2009 - 19/91.4
Brown J 2006 - 10/140.5, 2007 - 22/111.3
Davis, Leon 2009 - 20/99.1, 2010 - 64.2
Changes like Leuey's 2011 - 22/102.2, 2012 - 3/70.3 probably shouldn't count.
I'm sure there are others, and probably bigger ones, but they are just the ones that sprang to mind.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

I'm looking at Kieren Jack as abit of a pod at m8. He has gone under 110 twice, once was his first games back.
I already have GAJ, pendles, beams, Libba, jpk, m.murphy & selwood

Thoughts on Kieren Jack?

Cheers

Hey BH,
He's been pretty consistent the last couple of seasons, and is only in 3% of teams, so makes a good POD. He's probably priced right up to his potential to score, or just over it, but being POD helps counter that, so why not get him?
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Row congrats on 2000 posts.

Still struggling with defence. I need 2 more premos and was going to go Bartel then McVeigh later on. But with Hanley being so cheap should I grab him and get Bartel or McVeigh later? Just not sure Hanley can turn his form around

Hey bloke, thanks for that,
I'm not sold on Hanley, and would prefer to wait a week or two, if that's what's required, than to get Hanley right now.
Good luck

 

[bloke]

Hey bloke, thanks for that,
I'm not sold on Hanley, and would prefer to wait a week or two, if that's what's required, than to get Hanley right now.
Good luck

Thanks Rowsus,
Yeah my team looks way better with Bartel in it over Hanley.

 

[Rowsus]

rowsus what's your thoughts on kane mitchell. is he a viable m9 option if he can average 80 for the rest of season. currently $240k and would be used as cover for any mid injuries. his two games this season have been quite good - averaging 17 disposals & 8 tackles with some goals also thrown in.

Hey Sloth, thanks for that.
I have 3 concerns with K Mitchell.
He seems to fall out of favour very quickly, and gets dropped or vested a lot.
His price is very high for a downgrade/Cash cow target.
His scores seem a little hollow/inflated on his stats.
Sure, there are not a lot of downgrade targets available, but I'd be looking elsewhere.
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

Was thinking along similar lines myself.

Considering the following trades;

Langford to Mitchell
Pyke to Naitanui

Huge risk, but I have the ability to loophole NicNat and Derickx. Same goes for Hallahan/Mitchell for the next little while.

Would love your thoughts please!!

You're not making enough cash on your Langford downgrade, and I wouldn't take NicNat until he strings a couple of scores together, to show he is back. He will still be cheap if/when he does that.
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

Polec to fyfe or j.kennedy?

I think I prefer Fyfe, but both are/should be good picks.

 

[TeeButOne]

Rowsus,

What are your thoughts on Andrew Mackie? Never been a super scorer, but so far this year is averaging 100 from his 6 full games (excl. the red-vested 57 in Round 5). Even scores of 89 and 100 since returning from injury are impressive, but is there something I'm missing about the Geelong structure that indicates he can't keep this up? Very tempting at <$450k!!!

(P.S. Tossing up between him and Shannon Hurn)

 

[d-buzzz]

hey Rowsus, do you think Jack Steven would be a good pick up? could he match last seasons points or do you think he's too much of a risk for a midfield spot?

 

[whiteTiga2k]

Hi Rowsus. Went with your advice a week ago and I think it's going to pay off big time. So thank you very much.

Wondering if you can help me with this one... My mind has been running through so many different scenarios and really need your wise words
My team currently is:
McVeigh Bartel Hibberd Simpson Hodge Langdon Langford Giorgiou
Ablett Pendlebury Beams Watson Libba Selwood Tyson Polec Acres Shenton (traded in for Crouch)
Sandilands Goldstein King Thurlow
Dangerfield Gray Martin Zorko Pavlich Cameron Lloyd Impey
I have 158k in the bank atm with 1 trade left this week. Question is:
Would you make a trade this week or keep the trade? I keep thinking I need to downgrade Langford or Langdon to get more money to upgrade my weak remaining forward line... But the thought of upgrading Polec or Langdon to either Fyfe or Swallow is so tempting... And also the downgrade options are so low...
Instead of Swallow... Should I wait for Sam Mitchell to complete my backline?

Last bit... Do you think Brodie Martin can improve?

Sorry about all the questions... Any advice would be really appreciated.

 

[Monya Meow Meow]

Hi Row, I know you have suggested to bring Fyfe in a few times now.
However coupled with Barlow, don't you think Ross Lyon will rest them during SC finals time?
That's my only hesitation for bringing in Fyfe at this stage because I want Barlow next week.
If I bring in both, I will have 4 Freo players

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

Would love to hear your thoughts on trading Higgins to Wingard this round.
Whilst Higgins scored 105 this week and had a score of 126 three weeks ago, he has scored erratically this year, and has only tonned up three times in 9 games (plus there's the obvious injury risk involved).
He has a tough run ahead, with Fremantle, Brisbane, Collingwood and Port Adelaide in the next month.
Whilst Wingard seems to be hitting some form since coming back from his injury and with an easy run ahead, could definitely get back to his 2013 average of 98 in the run home.
Has Melbourne, St.Kilda, Sydney and Western Bulldogs in the next month.
The only thing really holding me back at the moment is the fact that I only have 12 trades remaining, and was already planning on using one with Langford -> Hanley this week, so would leave me with 10 at the conclusion of Rd. 11 and still have Polec and Tyson to upgrade with virtually no cash (although Tyson -> Swan will virtually be a straight swap in a couple of rounds)

What do you think?

Edit: Also note that I'm playing for a league win

Hey jmack5,
looking at your team, I think I would only try for one upgrade this week. Then, when the teams are announced this week, see what your best opportunity is to bring in another Cash Cow. Right now it is hard to see where the cash you need is going to come from. You are definitely going to want some Cash in the following weeks to make those last upgrades. The Higgins to Wingard trade isn't a bad one, I'm just concerned it may not tactically be your best choice this week.
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus. Last year the Demons leaked a massive amount of SC points to opposition teams as they were so poor. This year the Dees have improved their on field performance however I think the perception is that they still leak a lot of SC points. Can you please let me know whether this is still the case or not and perhaps compare them against a few other comparable teams? Thanks

Hi RB, Melbourne actually aren't that bad, now they have settled more into Roos' game plan.
The first 3 rounds were disastrous (Melb scores first): 1674/1625, 1564/1740, 1472/1827 - that included a belting from WC and a 5 goal loss to GWS.
Since then, they have actually been reasonable:
Melb wins: 1689/1611, 1734/1568, 1635/1662 - ave 1686/1614
Melb loses: 1503/1802, 1598/1706, 1607/1693 - ave 1569/1734
Overall, after round 3: ave 1627/1674
Not the disaster you might imagine. They do however give up some high individual scores: 152, 176, 164, 161, 171.
There have been 39 scores of 150+ so far this season, and more than 8th of them against Melbourne.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus, I'm considering getting Harry Taylor this week but noticed that Lonergan might be out. Do you have any stats for Taylor in games that Lonergan hasn't played ? (The pool might be pretty small, but thought it might be worth a shot anyway!)
Thanks!

Hey Bomber18,
I got Taylor a couple of weeks ago, and he is cheap, but I'd recommend holding off this week.
The sample of games he has played without Lonergan is pretty small, there is only 6 since 2010.
In that time Taylor has averaged 84.4 in all home and away games. In the 6 games he played without Lonergan he only averaged 61.2.
You might have something there! Well spotted.

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus do you believe its more important to get the best players available for a particular line or save some coin for later bench upgrades for decent cover?

I will most probably fork out the coin for Bartel this week and next week I will toss up between Jaensch/Hanley or a Hibberd/Burgoyne. The coin saved if I go one of the first two wouldn't go towards upgrading my team (only have Tyson to Stevie J to do after I finish my defense) but instead go towards a Hartung down to mid/fwd rookie and a Lloyd up to mid/fwd premium to cover those two lines and loophole Buddy in a few weeks time. I am half tempted to get the best 22 I can and hope I don't even need the bench cover but we all know we will at some stage.

PS- Congratulations for sticking with your original plan and not caving to get an irresistible Ablett. I had enough and paid 750k for him only to be rewarded with a 75 and a potential massive price drop (which is what I had previously waited 9 rounds for)

Zoku, it is a bit of a balancing act, and it really depends on how much faith you have in your current bench sitting players JS and scoring ability. If in doubt, make your 22 as strong as possible, then work on some DPP coverage. Personally I'd avoid Jaensch, and possibly even Hanley. Hibberd would be the best option of those 4 I would think.
Yes, I got lucky last week sticking to my guns on Ablett. I am hopeful he will drop about $80k by the time his 75 cycles out, and I can upgrade a Cotchin to him, with a one up one down trade.
Good luck