2014: The Race for the Overall Prize - Top 10 Analysis (updated pg9)

[freowho]

All of these teams seem to have a couple of weaknesses on the ground or in cover so luck will play a big part. Jacobs in the top 5. I was so close to picking him at the start of the year, so close. Resident Evils has a spectacular midfield.

 

[happydays]

If I was going for the yellow joursey and was ranked 5-20, I would take a risk and trade out Beams this week for as good a midfield prem - that is a POD against the top 5 - as you can afford. As long as you had a full team with 2 trades remaining. I would probably risk one of those last 2; certainly one of the last 3.

Beams is injury prone, likely to spend some time rotating forward (he has a better mark and fwd than Swan) and as a pies supporter, his form has dropped of. If your chasing tail, I think you might need some luck and something like this to pay off and give you 200 points.

 

[IDIG]

Not a bad idea at all happydays. These are the common players owned by all teams -

SIMPSON
SWALLOW
ABLETT
PENDLES
BEAMS
SANDI
DANGERFIELD
MARTIN

Beams or maybe Sandi to Mummy as a hope Sandi gets rested/Mummy stays fit and beasts it type of hail mary would be the ones i'd be looking at. Danger as well but there aren't too many fwds you could replace him with.

 

[JT23]

If I was going for the yellow joursey and was ranked 5-20, I would take a risk and trade out Beams this week for as good a midfield prem - that is a POD against the top 5 - as you can afford. As long as you had a full team with 2 trades remaining. I would probably risk one of those last 2; certainly one of the last 3.

Beams is injury prone, likely to spend some time rotating forward (he has a better mark and fwd than Swan) and as a pies supporter, his form has dropped of. If your chasing tail, I think you might need some luck and something like this to pay off and give you 200 points.

Great suggestion happy - I too think that Beams has just fallen off the pace a tiny bit and his scores have been increased a couple of times recently through 2nd half goals accompanied by not many disposals. This is the type of risk we love to see taken!! Question would then be which midfield POD do you trade him to??

 

[Shaahorn]

Great suggestion happy - I too think that Beams has just fallen off the pace a tiny bit and his scores have been increased a couple of times recently through 2nd half goals accompanied by not many disposals. This is the type of risk we love to see taken!! Question would then be which midfield POD do you trade him to??

I reckon you have to pick a midfielder from a side likely to finish 4th to 10th on the ladder (minimal chance for a rest) who has a high ceiling and who is unlikely to receive a tag.

My personal pick would be Prestia.

 

[meataxe]

Possibly a bit early for a non-essential hail mary trade like Beams out, especially if you only have 2 trades left. Has the 6th highest average at the moment, with JPK, Rockliff and Fyfe ahead. Rockliff and Fyfe have both missed more games than Beams this season, and doesn't JPK need to manage his hammies every season? (thought I read this earlier this year)

Still 8 rounds to go. Better off conserving such a low number of trades for last minute WDs (likely to save 50-60+ points, plus gaining tempo from trading out a potentially longer-term injured player)...Sandilands is always a possibility for a late WD and S Martin coverage may not be available if the latter is utilised in the forward line.

Saving 60+ points from a last minute WD = 8.5+pts/rd guaranteed. And there will be last minute WDs.

Brent Harvey is probably a better positive POD proposition, the Roos have a very easy run home and there is no other forward matching it with him atm (2nd ranked forward Robbie Gray has a poor durability record).

 

[IDIG]

Or maybe Sam Mitchell in for x defender? I reckon that'll be popular for those with trades in hand.

 

[Sidd]

Or maybe Sam Mitchell in for x defender? I reckon that'll be popular for those with trades in hand.

When is Sam Mitchell expected back?
After his next price drop he will be a promising pick-up and potential POD.

 

[IDIG]

When is Sam Mitchell expected back?
After his next price drop he will be a promising pick-up and potential POD.

Possibly back this week i'm reading. They were saying either through hawks or box hill from memory.

 

[Monya Meow Meow]

When is Sam Mitchell expected back?
After his next price drop he will be a promising pick-up and potential POD.

Possibly back this week i'm reading. They were saying either through hawks or box hill from memory.

The Hawks have lost the electrifying pace and brilliance of Cyril Rioli to a hamstring tendon injury, but they could regain the class of former skipper Sam Mitchell from a similar problem. Mitchell has not played since round seven and is under consideration to come straight back into the senior side - Travis King

 

[happydays]

Possibly a bit early for a non-essential hail mary trade like Beams out, especially if you only have 2 trades left.

If outside top 5, gotta take a chance and roll the dice. What does second-place win?

 

[OzRulesFootball]

If outside top 5, gotta take a chance and roll the dice. What does second-place win?

Zilch!!!!!!
Not sure only top 5 can win but if you think you in top 50 right now and got any remote hope better to go for it rather than be conservative and wonder what if? later. No prize for being second.
What move each coach takes to risk going backwards in order to get much higher is up to them. Quite clearly not all will do a risky move. Some will settle for something else. Good luck to those still in running.

 

[tracygrims]

If outside top 5, gotta take a chance and roll the dice. What does second-place win?

If you have confidence in your team you may not need to take risks. The creating and additional POD becomes a way you can put yourself right out of the race too!
At this stage I don't think it's really necessary, but out of the players every team has at the top, Beams or Sandilands would be the one to trade out.
Just wish I'd traded Harvey in instead of Dangerfield in Round 10! Would maybe be leading with 100k to spare!

 

[Obie]

If you are within 300 points of the leader, I would continue to do the basics right. Loop your players, get your vc/capt right. Let other people take the risks. I will guarantee all of the top sides are very low on trades. With 8 games to go, too many things can go wrong with injury/suspension/late withdrawal to trade a healthy premium to create pod. Speaking from experience last year, 4th with 2 weeks to go and finished 17th. Ibbotson and Heppell in defence out injured and zeros resulted. I'd be burning all my trades by the time about two weeks are left, but too far out at the moment to leave yourself with none imo.

 

[OzRulesFootball]

Yeah, 300 off no real need to try anything out of ordinary

 

[whateverittakes]

If you are within 300 points of the leader, I would continue to do the basics right. Loop your players, get your vc/capt right. Let other people take the risks. I will guarantee all of the top sides are very low on trades. With 8 games to go, too many things can go wrong with injury/suspension/late withdrawal to trade a healthy premium to create pod. Speaking from experience last year, 4th with 2 weeks to go and finished 17th. Ibbotson and Heppell in defence out injured and zeros resulted. I'd be burning all my trades by the time about two weeks are left, but too far out at the moment to leave yourself with none imo.

I'm currently 478 pts from the leader after 2 horrible weeks. The Likes of Murphy and Jaensch (pods) are killing me and NDS (pod) hasn't been great until last week and throw Libba into the bunch as well. Hard to see me making up the ground from here in unless these guys turn things around dramatically. I don't think it's likely so therefore some risks may need to be taken, the question is when and which ones...?

 

[Obie]

I'm currently 478 pts from the leader after 2 horrible weeks. The Likes of Murphy and Jaensch (pods) are killing me and NDS (pod) hasn't been great until last week and throw Libba into the bunch as well. Hard to see me making up the ground from here in unless these guys turn things around dramatically. I don't think it's likely so therefore some risks may need to be taken, the question is when and which ones...?

Only my opinion but last year I reckon Dimma won it on his captain selections. I went with blind faith in Ablett and Pendles and Dimma worked Selwood into his vc/capt routine and it payed off big. Bit of a moot point this year with Ablett killing it each and every week but it was about this time last year his scores flattened right out. Whilst at the pointy end last year my main pod were Boomer, Enright and NDS (Only one who had NDS in top 1000) Solid but unspectacular and I slowly lost ground every week. As hard as it is I'd be trying to find the inform player. Hard to know what sort of risks to take without knowing how many trades left but 400 is a fair way back considering some of the amazing looking sides I'm seeing. I noticed that Slobs looped Sandi and S.Martin and gained an important 47 points. Small but significant gains to maximise every available point every week goes a long way. Eight weeks to go and with a little patience as people run out of trades and get caught out could pay off.

 

[OzRulesFootball]

I'm currently 478 pts from the leader after 2 horrible weeks. The Likes of Murphy and Jaensch (pods) are killing me and NDS (pod) hasn't been great until last week and throw Libba into the bunch as well. Hard to see me making up the ground from here in unless these guys turn things around dramatically. I don't think it's likely so therefore some risks may need to be taken, the question is when and which ones...?

Looking at your team compared to other top rankers, looks like you've done bloody well to get as high as you have. Not much scope with your rookies to upgrade so unless you got much trades left or big kitty not much room to climb higher other than to hold tight, hope POD Wines plays out of his skin and averages way higher in last couple of months and some true carnage comes to a premium you don't have that the other high rankers do. Apart from that, think you will do well just to hold ground in last 8 rounds.

 

[OzRulesFootball]

Similar to last year's thread, i have done a quick analysis of the top 10 teams as well as tracygrims and myself (just for kicks ).




[TABLE="class: grid, width: 100, align: left"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]SLOBS[/TD]
[TD]TRONDHEIN FC[/TD]
[TD]C-MONEY[/TD]
[TD]BEST SINCE DAY ONE[/TD]
[TD]BIGJENNY-TALIA FFC[/TD]
[TD]TORRENTIAL RAINES[/TD]
[TD]WHATEVER-ITTAKES[/TD]
[TD]OH KILL EM[/TD]
[TD]MATT'S MACHINES[/TD]
[TD]THE WALKING DEAD[/TD]
[TD] STEAKAND-CHOPSTICKS[/TD]
[TD]IDIG SCS[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]38[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]26,949[/TD]
[TD]-23[/TD]
[TD]-107[/TD]
[TD]-118[/TD]
[TD]-120[/TD]
[TD]-164[/TD]
[TD]-181[/TD]
[TD]-183[/TD]
[TD]-223[/TD]
[TD]-228[/TD]
[TD]-322[/TD]
[TD]-440[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MCVEIGH[/TD]
[TD]MCVEIGH[/TD]
[TD]MCVEIGH[/TD]
[TD]MCVEIGH[/TD]
[TD]MCVEIGH[/TD]
[TD]GRIMES[/TD]
[TD]MCVEIGH[/TD]
[TD]MCVEIGH[/TD]
[TD]MCVEIGH[/TD]
[TD]MCVEIGH[/TD]
[TD]MCVEIGH[/TD]
[TD]MCVEIGH[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BURGOYNE[/TD]
[TD]BIRCHALL[/TD]
[TD]BARTEL[/TD]
[TD]BARTEL[/TD]
[TD]BURGOYNE[/TD]
[TD]BURGOYNE[/TD]
[TD]BARTEL[/TD]
[TD]BARTEL[/TD]
[TD]BARTEL[/TD]
[TD]BARTEL[/TD]
[TD]BARTEL[/TD]
[TD]BIRCHALL[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]HURN[/TD]
[TD]HODGE[/TD]
[TD]HIBBERD[/TD]
[TD]HIBBERD[/TD]
[TD]HURN[/TD]
[TD]BIRCHALL[/TD]
[TD]JAENSCH[/TD]
[TD]HIBBERD[/TD]
[TD]HIBBERD[/TD]
[TD]HIBBERD[/TD]
[TD]BURGOYNE[/TD]
[TD]HURN[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]HANLEY[/TD]
[TD]FULLER[/TD]
[TD]GEORGIOU[/TD]
[TD]SUCKLING[/TD]
[TD]HANLEY[/TD]
[TD]HANLEY[/TD]
[TD]LANGDON[/TD]
[TD]BIRCHALL[/TD]
[TD]SUCKLING[/TD]
[TD]HURN[/TD]
[TD]LANGDON[/TD]
[TD]HANLEY[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]LANGDON[/TD]
[TD]LANGDON[/TD]
[TD]LANGDON[/TD]
[TD]LANGFORD[/TD]
[TD]SUCKLING[/TD]
[TD]LANGDON[/TD]
[TD]BEWS[/TD]
[TD]LITHERLAND[/TD]
[TD]LANGFORD[/TD]
[TD]LANGFORD[/TD]
[TD]LANGFORD[/TD]
[TD]HUNT[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]LANGFORD[/TD]
[TD]LANGFORD[/TD]
[TD]BEWS[/TD]
[TD]BEWS[/TD]
[TD]LANGDON[/TD]
[TD]BEWS[/TD]
[TD]AYLETT[/TD]
[TD]GARDINER[/TD]
[TD]BEWS[/TD]
[TD]LITHERLAND[/TD]
[TD]CUTLER[/TD]
[TD]BEWS[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]WATSON[/TD]
[TD]WATSON[/TD]
[TD]WATSON[/TD]
[TD]WATSON[/TD]
[TD]WATSON[/TD]
[TD]WATSON[/TD]
[TD]WATSON[/TD]
[TD]WARD[/TD]
[TD]WATSON[/TD]
[TD]WATSON[/TD]
[TD]WATSON[/TD]
[TD]WATSON[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SELWOOD[/TD]
[TD]SELWOOD[/TD]
[TD]SELWOOD[/TD]
[TD]SELWOOD[/TD]
[TD]SELWOOD[/TD]
[TD]SELWOOD[/TD]
[TD]SELWOOD[/TD]
[TD]PRESTIA[/TD]
[TD]SELWOOD[/TD]
[TD]SELWOOD[/TD]
[TD]SELWOOD[/TD]
[TD]SELWOOD[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MURPHY[/TD]
[TD]JPK[/TD]
[TD]ROCKLIFF[/TD]
[TD]ROCKLIFF[/TD]
[TD]JPK[/TD]
[TD]JPK[/TD]
[TD]MURPHY[/TD]
[TD]ROCKLIFF[/TD]
[TD]JPK[/TD]
[TD]MURPHY[/TD]
[TD]JPK[/TD]
[TD]MURPHY[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BARLOW[/TD]
[TD]LIBERATORE[/TD]
[TD]FYFE[/TD]
[TD]LIBERATORE[/TD]
[TD]MURPHY[/TD]
[TD]LIBERATORE[/TD]
[TD]DAL SANTO[/TD]
[TD]FYFE[/TD]
[TD]COTCHIN[/TD]
[TD]GODDARD[/TD]
[TD]WARD[/TD]
[TD]JOHNSON[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SHENTON[/TD]
[TD]GRIFFEN[/TD]
[TD]GODDARD[/TD]
[TD]BOOMER[/TD]
[TD]SHENTON[/TD]
[TD]COTCHIN[/TD]
[TD]WINES[/TD]
[TD]COTCHIN[/TD]
[TD]TYSON[/TD]
[TD]COTCHIN[/TD]
[TD]GODDARD[/TD]
[TD]COTCHIN[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]HARTUNG[/TD]
[TD]TAYLOR[/TD]
[TD]O'BRIEN[/TD]
[TD]MORABITO[/TD]
[TD]HUNT[/TD]
[TD]SHENTON[/TD]
[TD]SHENTON[/TD]
[TD]SHENTON[/TD]
[TD]HALLAHAN[/TD]
[TD]SHENTON[/TD]
[TD]SGRAY[/TD]
[TD]O'BRIEN[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]HUNT[/TD]
[TD]ACRES[/TD]
[TD]ACRES[/TD]
[TD]ACRES[/TD]
[TD]ACRES[/TD]
[TD]ACRES[/TD]
[TD]O'BRIEN[/TD]
[TD]ACRES[/TD]
[TD]ACRES[/TD]
[TD]ACRES[/TD]
[TD]HARTUNG[/TD]
[TD]ACRES[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]COX[/TD]
[TD]MINSON[/TD]
[TD]JACOBS[/TD]
[TD]MUMFORD[/TD]
[TD]JACOBS[/TD]
[TD]JACOBS[/TD]
[TD]JACOBS[/TD]
[TD]JACOBS[/TD]
[TD]JACOBS[/TD]
[TD]MINSON[/TD]
[TD]JACOBS[/TD]
[TD]COX[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DERICKX[/TD]
[TD]CURRIE[/TD]
[TD]DERICKX[/TD]
[TD]DERICKX[/TD]
[TD]CURRIE[/TD]
[TD]THURLOW[/TD]
[TD]CURRIE[/TD]
[TD]DERICKX[/TD]
[TD]CURRIE[/TD]
[TD]DERICKX[/TD]
[TD]MARTIN[/TD]
[TD]SMITH[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]KING[/TD]
[TD]THURLOW[/TD]
[TD]KING[/TD]
[TD]THURLOW[/TD]
[TD]KING[/TD]
[TD]KING[/TD]
[TD]KING[/TD]
[TD]CURRIE[/TD]
[TD]THURLOW[/TD]
[TD]NARKEVIS[/TD]
[TD]KING[/TD]
[TD]KING[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]ROUGHEAD[/TD]
[TD]ZORKO[/TD]
[TD]ZORKO[/TD]
[TD]GUNSTON[/TD]
[TD]ROUGHEAD[/TD]
[TD]AMBROSE[/TD]
[TD]ZORKO[/TD]
[TD]BUDDY[/TD]
[TD]ROUGHEAD[/TD]
[TD]ZORKO[/TD]
[TD]ZORKO[/TD]
[TD]ZORKO[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]PARKER[/TD]
[TD]CLOKE[/TD]
[TD]PARKER[/TD]
[TD]PARKER[/TD]
[TD]PARKER[/TD]
[TD]PARKER[/TD]
[TD]PARKER[/TD]
[TD]PARKER[/TD]
[TD]GRAY[/TD]
[TD]PARKER[/TD]
[TD]BUDDY[/TD]
[TD]BUDDY[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]PAVLICH[/TD]
[TD]PAVLICH[/TD]
[TD]GRAY[/TD]
[TD]ZMERRETT[/TD]
[TD]BOOMER[/TD]
[TD]BOOMER[/TD]
[TD]PAVLICH[/TD]
[TD]PAVLICH[/TD]
[TD]PAVLICH[/TD]
[TD]PAVLICH[/TD]
[TD]PAVLICH[/TD]
[TD]PAVLICH[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BOOMER[/TD]
[TD]HIGGINS[/TD]
[TD]HIGGINS[/TD]
[TD]HIGGINS[/TD]
[TD]HIGGINS[/TD]
[TD]HIGGINS[/TD]
[TD]GRAY[/TD]
[TD]HIGGINS[/TD]
[TD]HIGGINS[/TD]
[TD]BUDDY[/TD]
[TD]WALKER[/TD]
[TD]BOOMER[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]AMBROSE[/TD]
[TD]AMBROSE[/TD]
[TD]SHENTON[/TD]
[TD]SHENTON[/TD]
[TD]AMBROSE[/TD]
[TD]IMPEY[/TD]
[TD]AMBROSE[/TD]
[TD]AMBROSE[/TD]
[TD]AMBROSE[/TD]
[TD]AMBROSE[/TD]
[TD]AMBROSE[/TD]
[TD]AMBROSE[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]IMPEY[/TD]
[TD]SHENTON[/TD]
[TD]CAMERON[/TD]
[TD]CAMERON[/TD]
[TD]CAMERON[/TD]
[TD]SPINA[/TD]
[TD]CAMERON[/TD]
[TD]CAMERON[/TD]
[TD]CAMERON[/TD]
[TD]CAMERON[/TD]
[TD]CAMERON[/TD]
[TD]CAMERON[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

Confused by the table. Why cannot I not see the actual full 30 players of each team. Is there some reason you left some players out ?

 

[IDIG]

Oh, the common players have been left out -

SIMPSON
SWALLOW
ABLETT
PENDLES
BEAMS
SANDI
DANGERFIELD
MARTIN

See page 5 for udpated top 10/lists