Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus...

Desperate now.... Hibberd is out for 3 with finals upon us. Should I sit him on the bench and play litherland? or trade him to Birchall and change Pavlich to Rockliff or some other trade like that?

only 2 trades left.

What is your opinion of Grant Birchall. Seems to be getting back into some form... do you think he can sustain it?

Hey wT2k,
Hibberd to Birchall seems reasonable. Apart from 2 poor scores 3 and 4 rounds ago, Birchall has been serviceable.
As to Pav to Rocky, I'd prefer to see you hang onto that trade for cover, or upgrade Impey to do some loopholing in your R/F area with Martin swinging up and down. Someone like McGlynn or Dahlhaus. I'd avoid Zorko as he has a tough draw late in the season, and might cost you some finals.
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

Still only 3 trades. Do you reckon I should do the Hibberd to Mitchell trade this week or just put up with Litherland.
Have $120 in bank so could upgrade Hibberd but still have option for another mid by moving Harvey back into fwd line.
Any thoughts are appreciated once again
cheers

Hi Slammer,
Hibberd to Mitchell appears sensible.
If you were desperate to shift Harvey now, you could go Taylor to Macrae or Crouch. It's borderline though, and given the carnage we have seen lately, I might err on the side of caution, and keep the 2 trades for another week, in case disaster strikes.
Good luck

 

[Deeman1]

Hey Deeman1,
interesting dilemma you have put me in! I would love to advise you how you might best win your Div 1 match-up this week......... except you are playing against ME!!!!!
Currently I am predicted to beat you by 30 points, so it comes down to C/VC selections, and late outs.
Looking at the respective draws of the players you can afford, I think i'd toss up between Macrae and Crouch. Griffen is just likely to disappear again, and Jones seems to have dropped off a little, as has Jack, whose draw isn't great. Wines would be my third pick.
I still have Swan, too. I have 1 trade left, and will only trade him out if/when I have to. I also have about $90k which makes my budget about the same as yours!
Good luck this week, I hope you jump the right way! As it stands right now, the only player I have sitting on the bench is Shenton in my Fwd line, so I can't afford any carnage/drama this week!

Hey Rowsus,

Thanks very much for your thoughts.

The Swan trade was somewhat made more complicated by the report on the Seven Melbourne news last night saying that Swan was ahead of schedule and "may" be back in rd 20.

I was not sure if you would realise that it was me that you were up against this week, I'm probably only an outside chance for the top 8 even if I win this week. My form line since round 6 is something like 2-8 or something along those lines after being 6-0 to start the season.

Funnily enough, that is about the time that I traded Swan into my team at aroung $560k, coincincidence maybe, but I reckon its got afar bit to do with my teams performance, lol.

Good Luck this week and may you get no more carnage than normal, lol.

 

[maken7]

Hi Rowsus

Just a quick one,
who to bench?

Dangerfield, Dusty, Boomer, R.Gray, Parker, S.Martin (Pavlich, McGovern)

 

[Slammer]

Hi Slammer,
Hibberd to Mitchell appears sensible.
If you were desperate to shift Harvey now, you could go Taylor to Macrae or Crouch. It's borderline though, and given the carnage we have seen lately, I might err on the side of caution, and keep the 2 trades for another week, in case disaster strikes.
Good luck

Thanks Rowsus,

Was thinking the Mitchell trade.
After Pav's concussion last night, do you reckon its worth holding the trade now and just use Litherland?
The trade may be useful next week

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks Rowsus,

Was thinking the Mitchell trade.
After Pav's concussion last night, do you reckon its worth holding the trade now and just use Litherland?
The trade may be useful next week

Happy to help, Slammer.
Pavlich does present a special problem, doesn't he!
His price is a chance to be below Taylor's after this round, and you'd have to think he is at least a 50% chance of missing next week, now he has had 2 heavy head knocks in 2 weeks.
I think taking Litherland's score, and keeping your trade might be best, as we don't know what other problems will arise between now and next week.
This is assuming you can afford to take Lith's score over Mitchell's.
Good luck

 

[Juzzo]

Glad I put the E on Pav!

 

[blue dreamer]

Glad I put the E on Pav!

Wish I did.

 

[whiteTiga2k]

Hi Rowsus,

I asked this on the Round 20 Trades thread, but really value your opinion:

Managed to steal a win and finish overall first. Back-ups in Litherland Impey served me well with Buddy and Hibberd out. Like IDIG, Pavlich is a massive concern for me. With a BE of 178, I really am unsure if keeping him is an option at all... considering that he is playing Geelong this week and any chance of trading him next week or after that is impossible should, as expected, Geelong's defense cut him out of the game.

Playing the same team I beat last round (his predicted score has been higher than mine last week and even more so this week), I do feel I was a little fortunate to win as he does have Rockliff and Hanley... and my captaining of Fyfe got me through.

My options this week are: (I have 2 trades left at 210k in the bank before trades)
1. Keep Pavlich, and look to upgrade mids to Kennedy/Ward and Rockliff (Trade SJ and another mid). Keeping Hibberd and hoping he plays next week or the week after.

2. Trade Pavlich to JPK, keep Luke Parker in midfield to cover SJ and have 21k left for my last trade. But I will then have 4 swans in my team. Hold the last trade and not trade Hibberd out and play Litherland again. If I can get a win this week, Hibberd may return for the Preliminary final. Play Impey as f6

3. Keep Pavlich, Trade SJ to Rockliff and wait a week and trade hibberd to Malceski (hoping be drops 6k)

What do you think I should do? At the moment I'm favoring option #2. But its a big decision so your input and thoughts would be fantastic.

 

[BHack87]

Hi Rowsus,

Best option between Jack, Sloane & Sidebottom?
Looking at Sloane based on easiest draw.

Any thoughts.

Cheers

Ben

 

[Monya Meow Meow]

Good morning Row!
Your advice for the past 2 weeks have been superb (Derickx to Wood and not trading in Mitchell). Just wanna say thank you for helping me make finals!

Now on to this week, Gunston is set to miss 2~3 weeks and that means I can no longer hold him.
I can do a straight swap to pretty much any player and I have my eyes set on Robbie Gray, Brent Harvey, Stefan Martin.
Unfortunately my opponent this week has all 3 so I was wondering in your opinion, who would you get in?
Thanks!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

I asked this on the Round 20 Trades thread, but really value your opinion:

Managed to steal a win and finish overall first. Back-ups in Litherland Impey served me well with Buddy and Hibberd out. Like IDIG, Pavlich is a massive concern for me. With a BE of 178, I really am unsure if keeping him is an option at all... considering that he is playing Geelong this week and any chance of trading him next week or after that is impossible should, as expected, Geelong's defense cut him out of the game.

Playing the same team I beat last round (his predicted score has been higher than mine last week and even more so this week), I do feel I was a little fortunate to win as he does have Rockliff and Hanley... and my captaining of Fyfe got me through.

My options this week are: (I have 2 trades left at 210k in the bank before trades)
1. Keep Pavlich, and upgrade Hibberd to Hanley leaving me 68k for my last trade.

2. Trade Pavlich, bring Luke Parker down to the forward line and bringing in JPK leaving me with 21k left for my last trade. But I will then have 4 swans in my team. Hold the last trade and not trade Hibberd out and play Litherland again. If I can get a win this week, Hibberd may return for the Preliminary final.

3. Trade Pavlich and Hibberd to Callan Ward and Sam Mitchell leaving me with 2k left to finish up the season.

What do you think I should do? At the moment I'm favoring option #2. But its a big decision so your input and thoughts would be fantastic.

Hi wT2k,
I think you have 3 options, too. It's just my 3 are totally different to yours, but I suspect yours have changed now as well, especially if your opponent this week doesn't have SJ!

option 1: - Tank this week, still play for the win, but use no trades so you can be in more of a position of strength after this week.

option 2: - Go all in this week, and try and knock him off, like it's the GF this week!

option 3: - Deal with Pavlich this week, and hold the last trade, even though it means a probable loss this week anyway.

The SJ appeal will make the decision easier, and I am coming back to this question when we know the result. As a matter of interest, does your opponent have SJ too?

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

Best option between Jack, Sloane & Sidebottom?
Looking at Sloane based on easiest draw.

Any thoughts.

Cheers

Ben

Hi Ben, welcome aboard.
Jack is definitely last pick of those 3. Sidey is flourishing in the "Swan" role this season, and he has a bigger ceiling than Sloane, though Sloane has the consistency. I'd go Sidey.
Good luck

 

[Erich1036]

G'day Rowsus, I've got a question regarding the magic number for 2015. This year as we all know was 5394. It was 5350 back in 2013. The top 4 midfielders (Ablett, Pendlebury, J. Selwood and Swan) cost $2,649,400. Next year if the same MN were to be used for the top 4 (Ablett, Rockliff, Pendlebury and Fyfe) they would cost $2,765,500 (at the moment), an additional $116,100. Clearly there's going to plenty more expensive premiums next year compared to this year. So my question is what do you estimate the MN to be next year, if you can give one. I realise it might be the most unpredictable number going around, but if there's a method to madness, let me know!

Also I'll be making my own excel spreadsheet 2015 SC picker after this season is done and giving it out to the interested SCS members. Just letting you know in case it makes you a bit more motivated to find an accurate answer

Thanks in advance!

 

[Rowsus]

Good morning Row!
Your advice for the past 2 weeks have been superb (Derickx to Wood and not trading in Mitchell). Just wanna say thank you for helping me make finals!

Now on to this week, Gunston is set to miss 2~3 weeks and that means I can no longer hold him.
I can do a straight swap to pretty much any player and I have my eyes set on Robbie Gray, Brent Harvey, Stefan Martin.
Unfortunately my opponent this week has all 3 so I was wondering in your opinion, who would you get in?
Thanks!

Afternoon MMM,
I think I'd avoid Gray now. Playing with the flu last week could have flattened him, and he may not score well Again this week. Port play Freo in the last game, and he potentially struggles that week, too. (He did score 126 against them in Round 8, but Port won by 18 points, and I think they may struggle a bit more this time.)
Harvey has more potential to destroy your hopes than Martin, if he is a POD against you. His draw of GWS/WB/Ade/Melb means he could ignite again. Getting Harvey closes that opportunity your opponent has against you right now.
If you were looking for a POD you could consider McGlynn. I recommended to someone here 2 weeks ago, but unfortunately they chose Gunston over him! . He averaged over 100 since round 5, which not too many Fwds have managed, though certainly Martin and Boomer have.
I'd probably close the gate on your opponents Boomer, but consider McGlynn if you want a POD.
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

G'day Rowsus, I've got a question regarding the magic number for 2015. This year as we all know was 5394. It was 5350 back in 2013. The top 4 midfielders (Ablett, Pendlebury, J. Selwood and Swan) cost $2,649,400. Next year if the same MN were to be used for the top 4 (Ablett, Rockliff, Pendlebury and Fyfe) they would cost $2,765,500 (at the moment), an additional $116,100. Clearly there's going to plenty more expensive premiums next year compared to this year. So my question is what do you estimate the MN to be next year, if you can give one. I realise it might be the most unpredictable number going around, but if there's a method to madness, let me know!

Also I'll be making my own excel spreadsheet 2015 SC picker after this season is done and giving it out to the interested SCS members. Just letting you know in case it makes you a bit more motivated to find an accurate answer

Thanks in advance!

Hi Erich,
I am sure there is a formula used to devise the MN, unfortunately, one of the key parts in determining it is impossible to guess at right now. I am referring to the number of brand new Rookies in each team. The number of Rookies without games played on the list will be a large part in determing the MN. For now I'd be working on something around 5400-5425. Which as you explained, is going to be horrible as to how many high priced Prems we will have next season!
Good luck with the XL sheet, and mark me down as being interested in a copy!

 

[Erich1036]

Hi Erich,
I am sure there is a formula used to devise the MN, unfortunately, one of the key parts in determining it is impossible to guess at right now. I am referring to the number of brand new Rookies in each team. The number of Rookies without games played on the list will be a large part in determing the MN. For now I'd be working on something around 5400-5425. Which as you explained, is going to be horrible as to how many high priced Prems we will have next season!
Good luck with the XL sheet, and mark me down as being interested in a copy!

I thought the MN would be more based off how expensive the highest averaging players would be rather than how many new rookie priced players there will be. Thanks for clearing that up for me, it definitely does make sense. Oh wow, that is going to be brutal. Especially with many coaches already deeming all of 4 Ablett, Rockliff, Pendlebury and Fyfe as 'locks'. SC seems to be getting harder and harder with every passing year.. I might very well just use this years 5394 as it's pretty close to what you've predicted already. Thanks heaps for that!
One copy will be coming your way, maybe as soon as a week after the end of the H&A season

 

[whiteTiga2k]

Hi wT2k,
I think you have 3 options, too. It's just my 3 are totally different to yours, but I suspect yours have changed now as well, especially if your opponent this week doesn't have SJ!

option 1: - Tank this week, still play for the win, but use no trades so you can be in more of a position of strength after this week.

option 2: - Go all in this week, and try and knock him off, like it's the GF this week!

option 3: - Deal with Pavlich this week, and hold the last trade, even though it means a probable loss this week anyway.

The SJ appeal will make the decision easier, and I am coming back to this question when we know the result. As a matter of interest, does your opponent have SJ too?

HI Rowsus

My opponent does have SJ! One way I was thinking SJ being out wouldn't of been so bad... as I had "some" cover... even if it was weak, whilst he had Acres and O'Brien. SO now... we both have SJ playing.

I agree with your 3 options and I have banging my head considering all 3.

I'm not too sure about Option 1, as I think I really need to trade out Pavlich. His 178 will make his price drop and I'm really unsure he can get any scores over 70 from now on.

Option 2... I have really seriously considered... especially before SJ won the appeal. I was planning on playing litherland... but trading out Pav and SJ for Sloane and Ward. But now that the appeal has been won... its rather stupid to trade out SJ right?

Option 3... JPK/Sloane or Harvey for Pav? and hold the last trade in case....

ALL 3 options rely on me playing litherland and waiting for Hibberd to return. I really am unsure if that is wise....

If you can think of better trades for me or options in general I would love to hear your opinion.

 

[jmack5]

Hi Rowsus, just posted this in another thread but would love to hear your wise opinion.

Here is my team, with 3 trades and $17,300 salary.

DEF: Hanley, McVeigh, Simpson, Mitchell, Hurn, Birchall (Enright, Georgiou)
MID: Fyfe, Selwood, Pendlebury, Beams, Murphy, Dal Santo, Liberatore, Jones (Acres, Hunt)
RUC: Goldstein, Sandilands (Thurlow, King)
FWD: Harvey, Dangerfield, Martin, Zorko, Pavlich, Wingard (Ambrose, Cameron)

Obviously Pavlich and Wingard at F5 and F6 are growing concerns. It's also noteworthy that Ambrose is injured and will miss the next 2-3 weeks and even after he is recovered, I doubt he will come straight back into the senior lineup. So I can downgrade him to make money for an upgrade.
Here are some options I have considered:

1) Ambrose -> Spina and Pavlich -> Parker
2) Ambrose -> Spina and Wingard -> Parker
3) Cameron -> Spina and Ambrose -> Caddy

Would appreciate your thoughts on these options and any alternative options I have not considered!

 

[Rowsus]

HI Rowsus

My opponent does have SJ! One way I was thinking SJ being out wouldn't of been so bad... as I had "some" cover... even if it was weak, whilst he had Acres and O'Brien. SO now... we both have SJ playing.

I agree with your 3 options and I have banging my head considering all 3.

I'm not too sure about Option 1, as I think I really need to trade out Pavlich. His 178 will make his price drop and I'm really unsure he can get any scores over 70 from now on.

Option 2... I have really seriously considered... especially before SJ won the appeal. I was planning on playing litherland... but trading out Pav and SJ for Sloane and Ward. But now that the appeal has been won... its rather stupid to trade out SJ right?

Option 3... JPK/Sloane or Harvey for Pav? and hold the last trade in case....

ALL 3 options rely on me playing litherland and waiting for Hibberd to return. I really am unsure if that is wise....

If you can think of better trades for me or options in general I would love to hear your opinion.

So........ barring unforeseen problems in the next few days, it appears your trade out options are:
Hibberd, Litherland, Pavlich and Impey.
I have made 4 tables to show the different combinations of players you can afford, depending on which 2 players you trade out. The way to read the tables is look down the left column of Midfielders, and you can afford all the Defenders on their same line, or above. For example, looking at the 1st table, if you chose Sidebottom/JPK you can afford Birchall, Johnson M, Murphy R........ and all the players listed above them.

Looking at the tables, it would seem if you are going to go "all-in" in this week, you need to trade Hibberd out. If you don't, it looks like you have to settle for a Jack K - Dunn/Harbrow/Thompson SD/Adcock combination.
You could go with the Hibber/Impey combo, and loophole Pav from F7. This would allow you to get Dal Santo-Adcock/Thompson SD. That would certainly be an improvement on what you have now, and looping Pav is way better than using Impey as cover.
You could go for the big knock-out blow, and use the top table with Hibberd/Pav out. It gives you nearly any Mid you want, except for Rocky, and there are plenty of decent Defs to pick from. The Ward/Mitchell combo jumps out, but I would be wary with Mitchell. I think I'd prefer to go Broadbent for consistency, or Adcock for history. Don't discount Sidey as an option, either.
If I was forced to give you thee options, I would say:
option 1: Ward/Guthrie
option 2: Sidebottom/Murphy R - I like Murphy's draw, and GWS in Rnd 23!
option 3: Pavlich ---> Sidebottom, and hold the last trade.
I think I like option 1 best, as you are rolling the dice on beating your opponent this week.
Whichever way you jump, I wish you good luck!