With one trade left, and possibly facing a "back to the wall" situation, the choice of moves isn't as complicated as it might seem. Especially with a nice cash reserve.
I know you are aware of the situation, but just to clarify for those reading along.
Defs: Bartel missing, needing to choose one of Bews and McDonald, or trade to fix
Fwds: Roughie missing, needing to loophole Ambrose/Cameron through Roughie - or upgrade one of those 3 players to a better Fwd option, or a Ruck by bringing Martin back to the Fwd line.
It really is a case of, what one off change can you make, that will deliver the most points? Obviously we don't want to throw out the baby with the bath water, either!
McDonald can be marked down as something around 65-70, and seems a better choice than Bews. There are not many Defs that we can say with confidence will go 100+ in any given week, so you are probably looking at something around a 30-40 point improvement (at best) by trading in your back-line.
Ambrose is probably a 65 too. Your Ruck option might lead to a 60 point increase, but more of that to come. The Forwards have been pretty up and down this season too. Trying to find one you don't have, that you are confident in going big might be tricky, too. Rucks on the other hand, have been slightly more reliable. As you suggested, Roughead to Gray is about the only viable option if it is a Fwd side trade. And Roughie to Goldy/Jacobs if it is a Ruck trade.
Gray : Strung 8 100+ scores together early in the season, but has gone into "one good score, one bad score" mode lately. Something to consider with Gray is this: He's averaging around 110 at AO, whether Port win (8 games) or lose (3 games). Interstate he is averaging around 120 in interstate wins (4 games - Carl, WC, GWS, Melb), but only 75 in interstate losses (4 games - Nth, Syd, Rich, Coll). His scores in interstate losses this season are: 79, 93, 77 and 49. Port face: GC away (win?), Carl AO (110), Fremantle away! It's that last game that's the killer. If Freo need to win, Gray could potentially cost you your cash League!
Goldy : His post Rnd 11 form is irresistable!: 166, 102, 100, 122, 95, 166, 131, 133, 143 - wins, losses, home or interstate, it doesn't matter! Averaging 128.7 in that period. His 102 was against Jacobs, who he faces again in Rnd 21, and he struggled early in the season against Minson, but he was struggling against everyone at that point! He plays Melbourne in Rnd 23, and Melbourne just give up big Ruck scores! Hale Rnd 20 scored 109, and he hadn't scored over 88 since Rnd 7. S Martin Rnd 19 scored 117. Lobbe 109 Rnd 18, his 2nd best score in his last 7 games. H Mac 144 Rnd 17, his best score this season by over 40 points! You get the idea, those with Goldy are looking at a potential goldmine in the SC GF!
Jacobs : Mr Consistent. Only 3 sub 100 scores this season, and none in his last 9, where he too has averaged 128 in that period! Plays Richmond (Maric coming good?), North, then St Kilda, who are also giving up monster Ruck scores, but probably Melbourne is giving up bigger ones.
So you can replace Ambrose's potential score, with Goldy or Sauce. It would seem this is your greatest potential boost this week.
Both your Fwd bench players are picked this week, but I understand you are concerned they could both easily disappear quickly, leaving you with no cover. So do you hold onto Roughie, and upgrade Ambrose? Tex and Dahlhaus seem the obvious choices in that price range. Tex is unpredictable, and gives you the wild card factor, or lets you down. Dahl's form seems to be tapering off, with 100+'s getting fewer as the season progresses. I wish you had $2k more, and you could go Ambrose to Howe! He's averaged 101 in his last 6 games, with 4 100+ scores.
To me it looks like a choice of:
Roughie ---> Goldy/Jacobs or
Ambrose ---> Tex
I'd be waiting until after the Ess v WC game, and checking your match up. If you need the boost, then go Roughie to Goldy, with Martin down. If you are looking ok, keep the trade! Remember this needs to be done after game 4! Don't get caught out waiting until Sunday, as you won't be able to move Martin down then!
Which ever way you go, good luck
I know you are aware of the situation, but just to clarify for those reading along.
Defs: Bartel missing, needing to choose one of Bews and McDonald, or trade to fix
Fwds: Roughie missing, needing to loophole Ambrose/Cameron through Roughie - or upgrade one of those 3 players to a better Fwd option, or a Ruck by bringing Martin back to the Fwd line.
It really is a case of, what one off change can you make, that will deliver the most points? Obviously we don't want to throw out the baby with the bath water, either!
McDonald can be marked down as something around 65-70, and seems a better choice than Bews. There are not many Defs that we can say with confidence will go 100+ in any given week, so you are probably looking at something around a 30-40 point improvement (at best) by trading in your back-line.
Ambrose is probably a 65 too. Your Ruck option might lead to a 60 point increase, but more of that to come. The Forwards have been pretty up and down this season too. Trying to find one you don't have, that you are confident in going big might be tricky, too. Rucks on the other hand, have been slightly more reliable. As you suggested, Roughead to Gray is about the only viable option if it is a Fwd side trade. And Roughie to Goldy/Jacobs if it is a Ruck trade.
Gray : Strung 8 100+ scores together early in the season, but has gone into "one good score, one bad score" mode lately. Something to consider with Gray is this: He's averaging around 110 at AO, whether Port win (8 games) or lose (3 games). Interstate he is averaging around 120 in interstate wins (4 games - Carl, WC, GWS, Melb), but only 75 in interstate losses (4 games - Nth, Syd, Rich, Coll). His scores in interstate losses this season are: 79, 93, 77 and 49. Port face: GC away (win?), Carl AO (110), Fremantle away! It's that last game that's the killer. If Freo need to win, Gray could potentially cost you your cash League!
Goldy : His post Rnd 11 form is irresistable!: 166, 102, 100, 122, 95, 166, 131, 133, 143 - wins, losses, home or interstate, it doesn't matter! Averaging 128.7 in that period. His 102 was against Jacobs, who he faces again in Rnd 21, and he struggled early in the season against Minson, but he was struggling against everyone at that point! He plays Melbourne in Rnd 23, and Melbourne just give up big Ruck scores! Hale Rnd 20 scored 109, and he hadn't scored over 88 since Rnd 7. S Martin Rnd 19 scored 117. Lobbe 109 Rnd 18, his 2nd best score in his last 7 games. H Mac 144 Rnd 17, his best score this season by over 40 points! You get the idea, those with Goldy are looking at a potential goldmine in the SC GF!
Jacobs : Mr Consistent. Only 3 sub 100 scores this season, and none in his last 9, where he too has averaged 128 in that period! Plays Richmond (Maric coming good?), North, then St Kilda, who are also giving up monster Ruck scores, but probably Melbourne is giving up bigger ones.
So you can replace Ambrose's potential score, with Goldy or Sauce. It would seem this is your greatest potential boost this week.
Both your Fwd bench players are picked this week, but I understand you are concerned they could both easily disappear quickly, leaving you with no cover. So do you hold onto Roughie, and upgrade Ambrose? Tex and Dahlhaus seem the obvious choices in that price range. Tex is unpredictable, and gives you the wild card factor, or lets you down. Dahl's form seems to be tapering off, with 100+'s getting fewer as the season progresses. I wish you had $2k more, and you could go Ambrose to Howe! He's averaged 101 in his last 6 games, with 4 100+ scores.
To me it looks like a choice of:
Roughie ---> Goldy/Jacobs or
Ambrose ---> Tex
I'd be waiting until after the Ess v WC game, and checking your match up. If you need the boost, then go Roughie to Goldy, with Martin down. If you are looking ok, keep the trade! Remember this needs to be done after game 4! Don't get caught out waiting until Sunday, as you won't be able to move Martin down then!
Which ever way you go, good luck
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