Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Philzsay]

For these advanced stats to be released to the public it would essentially need champion data to be bankrolled by the AFL.

Champion Data have 10 people for each AFL game, and even though they get paid a low amount like most non performance jobs in sport the costs are still quite high.

Now I may be out of date in my understanding but when I spoke to a CD employee a couple of years ago now offering a low cost service to the general public was seen to only undermine the ability to earn much larger revenues from the AFL Clubs. Further it reduced the risk of opportunists buying the reduced cost stats and repackaging or adding extras and reselling them in other guises.

Unfortunately for us fananticals, it is all about protecting their valuable IP which looking at it from their perspective I can understand.

 

[Jurn Stern]

Thanks for the link. Yeah, it seems weird they don't have H2A after 2011. Also, they don't have Ruck contests attended, which is very important for comparison purposes.

We make do where we can. I have hunted for the figures that we see quoted in the media sometimes and came up with this.

Year – Ruck contests attended average (RCA), Hit outs won average (HOW), Time of Ground Percentage (TOG%)

2011 Season – RCA N/A, HOW 19.9, TOG% 78.9, SC 93.8
2012 Season - RCA 44.0, HOW 24.7, TOG% 82.3, SC 114.2
2013 Season - RCA 50.1, HOW 25.4, TOG% 71.7, SC 96.2
2014 Prebye - RCA 28.0, HOW 14.8, TOG% 72.8, SC 69.1
2014 Postbye - RCA N/A, HOW 26.7, TOG% 80.3, SC 105.3

It is very clear that he was down on form with injury pre bye in 2014 (low RCA, low TOG%, low SC).
If you adjust his TOG in 2013 up to his 2012 levels then he would have averaged about 110ppg.
He averaged 105.3 post bye, and 120.2 in games without Dean Cox.

This isn’t the most statistically solid piece, but based on all of this I would imagine that if Nic Nat can get through a full preseason, can increase his TOG% to around 83, that we can expect him to return between 108-112ppg, with a lower estimate of 102ppg and upper estimate of 118ppg.

I guess that means I pick him.

 

[DeliciousJedi]

For these advanced stats to be released to the public it would essentially need champion data to be bankrolled by the AFL.

Champion Data have 10 people for each AFL game, and even though they get paid a low amount like most non performance jobs in sport the costs are still quite high.

Now I may be out of date in my understanding but when I spoke to a CD employee a couple of years ago now offering a low cost service to the general public was seen to only undermine the ability to earn much larger revenues from the AFL Clubs. Further it reduced the risk of opportunists buying the reduced cost stats and repackaging or adding extras and reselling them in other guises.

Unfortunately for us fananticals, it is all about protecting their valuable IP which looking at it from their perspective I can understand.

What is the AFL Prospectus?

 

[Rowsus]

We make do where we can. I have hunted for the figures that we see quoted in the media sometimes and came up with this.

Year – Ruck contests attended average (RCA), Hit outs won average (HOW), Time of Ground Percentage (TOG%)

2011 Season – RCA N/A, HOW 19.9, TOG% 78.9, SC 93.8
2012 Season - RCA 44.0, HOW 24.7, TOG% 82.3, SC 114.2
2013 Season - RCA 50.1, HOW 25.4, TOG% 71.7, SC 96.2
2014 Prebye - RCA 28.0, HOW 14.8, TOG% 72.8, SC 69.1
2014 Postbye - RCA N/A, HOW 26.7, TOG% 80.3, SC 105.3

It is very clear that he was down on form with injury pre bye in 2014 (low RCA, low TOG%, low SC).
If you adjust his TOG in 2013 up to his 2012 levels then he would have averaged about 110ppg.
He averaged 105.3 post bye, and 120.2 in games without Dean Cox.

This isn’t the most statistically solid piece, but based on all of this I would imagine that if Nic Nat can get through a full preseason, can increase his TOG% to around 83, that we can expect him to return between 108-112ppg, with a lower estimate of 102ppg and upper estimate of 118ppg.

I guess that means I pick him.

Love your work, Jurn, Would also love to know where you tracked down your RCA's. I've tried googling it many different forms over the past few years, and have never found it. You can PM if you don't want to share it publicly, or if you feel you need to keep it to yourself for whatever reason, that's ok too. I too will in all likelihood start him, as I think he has the potential to be a top 2 or 3 Ruck, and this may be our last chance to start him at a discounted price.

 

[Philzsay]

What is the AFL Prospectus?

I meant as in like a website that had all of the advanced stats CD collect in a game. I would pay say a $100 subscription to be able to look at them all, however there probably would not be enough potential customer numbers to open them all up like that.

While the Prospectus is great, stats wise it only really gives you yearly average stats for a limited range of items, plus some articles looking at cherry picked items. I would love to be able to have at my finger tips stats like how many scoring chains was a certain player involved in during certain games etc.

 

[Jurn Stern]

Love your work, Jurn, Would also love to know where you tracked down your RCA's. I've tried googling it many different forms over the past few years, and have never found it. You can PM if you don't want to share it publicly, or if you feel you need to keep it to yourself for whatever reason, that's ok too. I too will in all likelihood start him, as I think he has the potential to be a top 2 or 3 Ruck, and this may be our last chance to start him at a discounted price.

No secrets, I gathered that if they were quoted in the media then I would just look in the media. Those numbers were listed when making a case for Nic Nat's injury problems early in 2014. The only place I could find them was in newspaper articles.

 

[Jurn Stern]

No secrets, I gathered that if they were quoted in the media then I would just look in the media. Those numbers were listed when making a case for Nic Nat's injury problems early in 2014. The only place I could find them was in newspaper articles.

If anyone has further interest. I extrapolated this ruck contest stat until the bye rounds as I believe it would have been this low until then we the WCE could give him a rest and reaccess.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...nic-groin-injury/story-fni5faul-1226898613920

 

[Manikato1]

With all this talk about stats etc I am wondering if anyone has ever tracked players roles. That is set role versus variable role.

So some players always play lock down defender or rebounding defender etc. Other players however sometimes get multiple roles such as free in the midfield one week , tagger the next and then rotating thru midfield off a set position such as forward flank the week after that. If it could be done I think it would be a great asset to coaches.

Sometimes when reviewing mid priced or value priced players pre season it is hard to know as you look at previous season scores if the dross was because they just played bad or played well but the role they were given did not permit any chance of a good SC score.

 

[fodzilla]

That's where watching football comes in handy.

 

[BuddyLove]

Take Nic Nat off your watch list and whack him straight into your team!

First picked for me this year and imo will easily average over 120 - add to that he will also become a valuable captain option.

Never has someone been so locked in Dec!

 

[Braider]

With all this talk about stats etc I am wondering if anyone has ever tracked players roles. That is set role versus variable role.
So some players always play lock down defender or rebounding defender etc. Other players however sometimes get multiple roles such as free in the midfield one week , tagger the next and then rotating thru midfield off a set position such as forward flank the week after that. If it could be done I think it would be a great asset to coaches.
Sometimes when reviewing mid priced or value priced players pre season it is hard to know as you look at previous season scores if the dross was because they just played bad or played well but the role they were given did not permit any chance of a good SC score.

Yes, nice one Mani. A good example is number 11 for Adelaide Crows, Matthew friggin Wright.

 

[Schmicko]

Yes, nice one Mani. A good example is number 11 for Adelaide Crows, Matthew friggin Wright.

...NekMinnit, Sando gets the boot!!! LMFAO, even with my 3rd degree burns!

 

[siwel]

I'm happy to do this for siwel, but I don't want to get flooded with requests like this, as it largely overlaps something I'm working on anyway.

Rowsus i have a question re the TOG and TOG% stats the you use in the analysis of players. Like you I believe an achievable increase in TOG can significantly lead to increased SC scores, where do you obtain these stats from? If you don't wish to publish you can pm me or if you dont wish to share that's fine as well. I just believe it will be a key research tool for myself this preseason.

 

[Manikato1]

Try http://www.afl.com.au/stats

You choose individual players. Then go Advanced options on the right hand side. Delete one of the existing options and add TOG

 

[siwel]

Try http://www.afl.com.au/stats

You choose individual players. Then go Advanced options on the right hand side. Delete one of the existing options and add TOG

Cheers Manikato1

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus i have a question re the TOG and TOG% stats the you use in the analysis of players. Like you I believe an achievable increase in TOG can significantly lead to increased SC scores, where do you obtain these stats from? If you don't wish to publish you can pm me or if you dont wish to share that's fine as well. I just believe it will be a key research tool for myself this preseason.

Try http://www.afl.com.au/stats

You choose individual players. Then go Advanced options on the right hand side. Delete one of the existing options and add TOG

Cheers Manikato1

I actually don't use the ones on the afl website. They include finals, and can skew your figures one way or the other. I use

afltables.com​

it means having to manually add them, and calculate the average TOG, but at least you can drop the finals out that way.

 

[Drew]

What's your thoughts on Daniel Rich mate? Looks cheap and talented but has never averaged above 90 and is coming back into a star studded Lions midfield, is he too far down the pecking order there to score well enough as a keeper mid?

 

[Brettthejett]

What's your thoughts on Daniel Rich mate? Looks cheap and talented but has never averaged above 90 and is coming back into a star studded Lions midfield, is he too far down the pecking order there to score well enough as a keeper mid?

Ill be starting with him easily av more than a rookie and will be a easy upgrade to a prem or make a good m9/10

 

[Bob Loblaw]

For these advanced stats to be released to the public it would essentially need champion data to be bankrolled by the AFL.

Champion Data have 10 people for each AFL game, and even though they get paid a low amount like most non performance jobs in sport the costs are still quite high.

Now I may be out of date in my understanding but when I spoke to a CD employee a couple of years ago now offering a low cost service to the general public was seen to only undermine the ability to earn much larger revenues from the AFL Clubs. Further it reduced the risk of opportunists buying the reduced cost stats and repackaging or adding extras and reselling them in other guises.

Unfortunately for us fananticals, it is all about protecting their valuable IP which looking at it from their perspective I can understand.

It's actually a good thing they don't release all of their advanced statistics to the public at an affordable price. If they did, I wouldn't get of the couch for weeks at an end. I would be fired from work my family would desert me leading me into a deep depression where I turn to fatty foods, alcohol and sugary drinks for comfort all while addicted to the endless statistics I have access to. Within 2 months I would be diagnosed with the worlds first confirmed case of type 3 diabetes after having ballooned to 300kgs leaving me bedridden for the remainder of my life untill I shortly die at the age of 28 having accomplished nothing except a ridiculously deep and complex understanding of AFL.
Nevertheless After contemplating further I have realised I don't need to wait for the stats to release. A few weeks ago after being diagnosed with terminal cancer I joined my brother-in-law on a raid on a notorious hacker's ring. While waiting in the car outside I recognised one of my former students only I saw escape from the house. Now my plan is to comfront him and use his hacking ability and my leverage to create a partnership which involves him hacking into the Champion Data server and then selling the statistics on the Dark Web to fellow addicts who are drawn to the detail op and purity of the product provided. I soon expand my territory by Hacking into other sporting codes and using the information my football knowledge and my partners to computer skills to create an infallible software program which I use to win multiple fantasy competitions under different allias's each year resulting in an income in the millions of dollars each year which I plan to give to my family. However my partners inability to shake his past as a hacker of Banks and other more "top secret" Information and our connection to the dark web means we have numerous close encounters with seedy underworld figures as we push forward. (WARNING spoilers) My family soon become suspicious of my income so I blame gambling and buy a car wash to launder the money of which only my wife knows is made illegally leading to a shonky and depressing marriage arrangement. However eventually my brother in law catchs onto me and becomes closer to finding me but is killed by underworld figures trying to protect me from the income I produce. Then my wife and partener break ranks and tell the FBI leading to a full scale man-hunt. In a desperate attempt to give my money to my family I blackmail wealthy friends to give it to them and return home in one last badass attempt to kill all those who have wronged me. Ultimatly leading to my death just moments before the police arrive.

Either way, it's probably a good thing that they don't release the statistics... For my sake anyway.

Edit: I apologise, I am sick and have been in bed all day. The painkillers must have got to my head.

 

[Philzsay]

It's actually a good thing they don't release all of their advanced statistics to the public at an affordable price. If they did, I wouldn't get of the couch for weeks at an end. I would be fired from work my family would desert me leading me into a deep depression where I turn to fatty foods, alcohol and sugary drinks for comfort all while addicted to the endless statistics I have access to. Within 2 months I would be diagnosed with the worlds first confirmed case of type 3 diabetes after having ballooned to 300kgs leaving me bedridden for the remainder of my life untill I shortly die at the age of 28 having accomplished nothing except a ridiculously deep and complex understanding of AFL.
Nevertheless After contemplating further I have realised I don't need to wait for the stats to release. A few weeks ago after being diagnosed with terminal cancer I joined my brother-in-law on a raid on a notorious hacker's ring. While waiting in the car outside I recognised one of my former students only I saw escape from the house. Now my plan is to comfront him and use his hacking ability and my leverage to create a partnership which involves him hacking into the Champion Data server and then selling the statistics on the Dark Web to fellow addicts who are drawn to the detail op and purity of the product provided. I soon expand my territory by Hacking into other sporting codes and using the information my football knowledge and my partners to computer skills to create an infallible software program which I use to win multiple fantasy competitions under different allias's each year resulting in an income in the millions of dollars each year which I plan to give to my family. However my partners inability to shake his past as a hacker of Banks and other more "top secret" Information and our connection to the dark web means we have numerous close encounters with seedy underworld figures as we push forward. (WARNING spoilers) My family soon become suspicious of my income so I blame gambling and buy a car wash to launder the money of which only my wife knows is made illegally leading to a shonky and depressing marriage arrangement. However eventually my brother in law catchs onto me and becomes closer to finding me but is killed by underworld figures trying to protect me from the income I produce. Then my wife and partener break ranks and tell the FBI leading to a full scale man-hunt. In a desperate attempt to give my money to my family I blackmail wealthy friends to give it to them and return home in one last badass attempt to kill all those who have wronged me. Ultimatly leading to my death just moments before the police arrive.

Either way, it's probably a good thing that they don't release the statistics... For my sake anyway.

Edit: I apologise, I am sick and have been in bed all day. The painkillers must have got to my head.

Seems like a difficult way to make a truckload of cash. I just bought a lotto ticket instead, hopefully it will lead me to millions!