Discussion Tip a Top 30: Using last year's points to predict the future

[Ricky Bobby]

Not at all Rowsus, I value your contributions to this thread and the depth they provide.

Cheers KLo

Hi KLo.
While Erich had done some fine work in some other threads over the past few months, I think Rowsus may have sold you a bit short here (unintentionally I'm sure ).
Great work by the way - some really interesting things to consider.

 

[Rowsus]

Not at all Rowsus, I value your contributions to this thread and the depth they provide.

Cheers KLo

Hi KLo.
While Erich had done some fine work in some other threads over the past few months, I think Rowsus may have sold you a bit short here (unintentionally I'm sure ).
Great work by the way - some really interesting things to consider.

You're right RB, Erich has done some great work during the off season........ but all credit for this awesome thread belongs to

KLo30​

1,000,000 apologies KLo, I have no idea how or why I confused myself, and gave Erich the credit.

..... I hadn't even been drinking!

 

[siwel]

So how does that look for the players that dropped out of the top 30, going from seasons 2013 to 2014?

.

I have one player from the table above and I am pretty keen on him - Scott Selwood! I would love your opinion on him Rowsus, KLo30 and others. I am very tempted to get DANGER into my team as well but dont currently have him. Everything posted in this thread suggests he can certainly make a return to at worst the top 30 but hopefully top 10-15

 

[broges]

I have one player from the table above and I am pretty keen on him - Scott Selwood! I would love your opinion on him Rowsus, KLo30 and others. I am very tempted to get DANGER into my team as well but dont currently have him. Everything posted in this thread suggests he can certainly make a return to at worst the top 30 but hopefully top 10-15

Read in injury thread that Scott Selwood walking laps on modified training. Plenty of time before season starts but do you want a player with an interrupted preseason?

 

[siwel]

Read in injury thread that Scott Selwood walking laps on modified training. Plenty of time before season starts but do you want a player with an interrupted preseason?

NOPE! Didn't see that will have a look now through the inj thread, cheers Broges

 

[Rowsus]

I have one player from the table above and I am pretty keen on him - Scott Selwood! I would love your opinion on him Rowsus, KLo30 and others. I am very tempted to get DANGER into my team as well but dont currently have him. Everything posted in this thread suggests he can certainly make a return to at worst the top 30 but hopefully top 10-15

He was my pin-up hope during the pre-season of 2013. I think injury woes and tagging roles make him too much of a risk now. Not for me

 

[DeliciousJedi]

Played through an injury and was therefore back to tagging, which is why he dropped so much. You need Selwood to be injury free and looking like playing a main role in the pre-season to consider him.

I like these sorts of threads, kudos to KLo and Rowsus. Is it worth doing this by position over the years or do you get a better look including all, because of positional changes etc?

 

[KLo30]

Given the quandary that is the defence this Supercoach season, it just so happens that I've been looking at defender history. Without going into quite as much depth as the overall top 30, here is what I've gleaned from my research.

Defenders

2014 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 2013 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 2012

Class of 2013
• 2 of the top 10 remained in the top 10 of defenders, 5 in the top 20, 7 in the top 30. Goddard and Gibbs had position changes whilst Ibbotson was injured
• Notable 11-20s: Malceski 105 and Heppell (M)106
• Notable 21-30s: Burgoyne 94
Class of 2012
• 4 of the top 10 remained in the top 10 of defenders, 5 in the top 20, 7 in the top 30. Deledio had position changes whilst Carrazzo (66av) and Duffield dropped off (80av)
• Notable 11-20s: SDT 98
• Notable 21-30s: Murphy 99

2011 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 2010 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 2009

Class of 2011
• 5 of the top 10 remained in the top 10 of defenders, 5 in the top 20, 5 in the top 30. Gibbs had position changes whilst Newman (77av) and Fisher dropped off (83av), Bock was injured and Tutt 5 games (36av)
• Notable 11-20s: Carrazzo 97 and Birchall 95 went into the top 10 (Birchall top 10 discounting Tutt)
• Notable 21-30s: None
Class of 2010
• 2 of the top 10 remained in the top 10 of defenders, 3 in the top 20, 3 in the top 30.
• Notable 11-20s: Scotland 107, Newman 99, Fisher 101, Shaw 101
• Notable 21-30s: None
Class of 2009
• 2 of the top 10 remained in the top 10 of defenders, 4 in the top 20, 5 in the top 30.
• Notable 11-20s: Scotland 107, Newman 99,
• Notable 21-30s: Hodge 116, Fletcher 97, Johncock 101

What can we take away from this for the class of 2014 in 2015?
• Four players (McVeigh, Swallow, Hanley and Bartel) have had position changes,
• Malceski is highly unlikely to maintain a 100+ average
• The remaining top 10 are no guarantees to remain in the top 10 of defenders despite losing 4 to other positions
• Look for 2 (or more this season) players from 11-20 to make a notable improvement
• Look for 1 player from 21-30 to make a notable improvement

 

[Maso]

This Thread just keeps getting better and better !! great work

 

[KLo30]

1,000,000 apologies KLo, I have no idea how or why I confused myself, and gave Erich the credit.

All good.

..... I hadn't even been drinking!

Now there's your problem.

 

[KLo30]

Forwards

The first thing you’ll notice about the forwards table is that season averages have a higher threshold compared to defenders. The second is that the top 10 is dominated by dual position players.

2014 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>> 2013 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 2012

Class of 2013
• 2 of the top 10 remained in the top 10 of forwards, 4 in the top 20, 4 in the top 30. Johnson, Rockliff, Cox, Bartel and Walker had position changes whilst Petrie dropped off
• Notable 11-20s: Franklin 99
• Notable 21-30s: None
Class of 2012
• 0 of the top 10 remained in the top 10 of Forwards, 3 in the top 20, 3 in the top 30. Beams, Dangerfield, Sidebottom had position changes whilst Walker was injured, O’Keffee, Pavlich and Zorko dropped off
• Notable 11-20s: Johnson 116, N.Riewoldt 105, Harvey 104, Petrie 103
• Notable 21-30s: Martin 102

2011 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 2010 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 2009

Class of 2011
• 4 of the top 10 remained in the top 10 of forwards, 6 in the top 20, 7 in the top 30. Fyfe had position changes whilst Cloke and McDonald dropped off
• Notable 11-20s: Chapman top 10 discounting McDonald
• Notable 21-30s: None
Class of 2010
• 4 of the top 10 remained in the top 10 of forwards, 6 in the top 20, 6 in the top 30.
• Notable 11-20s: Cloke 101, O’Keffe 102
• Notable 21-30s: None
Class of 2009
• 5 of the top 10 remained in the top 10 of forwards, 5 in the top 20, 5 in the top 30.
• Notable 11-20s: None
• Notable 21-30s: Harvey 100, Franklin 107

What can we take away from this for the class of 2014 in 2015?
• Three players (S.Martin, Parker and Dangerfield) have had position changes,
• S.Martin is highly unlikely to maintain a 100+ average
• The remaining top 10 are no guarantees to remain in the top 10 of forwards despite losing 3 to other positions.
• Look for 1 or 2 players from 11-20 to make a notable improvement
• Look for 1 player from 21-30 to make a notable improvement

 

[KLo30]

Rucks

History says that, at most, the top 4 Rucks are relevant in any one season, and in half of the seasons tabled it shows that having the top 2 is of the utmost importance. If you don’t start with the top 2 having a trading plan should be a high priority. But beware they get hurt.

2014 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 2013 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 2012

2011 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 2010 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 2009

NB. I’ve only pulled the top 250 overall averages for any one season, hence the blanks in many seasons for rucks.

What can we take away from this for the class of 2014 in 2015?
• There will be a new top 2
• One of the top 2 won’t play the full season
• One of the top 2 will likely come from outside the top 10 rucks
• Ruckman get hurt

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Interesting that there are only 2 ruckman that have been in the top 10 rucks over the past 3 years.

One is Naitanui and the other is Maric. Could be a good ruck combo this year.

 

[PC]

Cheers KLo30! Sadly, I am unable to give you rep

 

[Bontempele]

What can we take away from this for the class of 2014 in 2015?
• There will be a new top 2
• One of the top 2 won’t play the full season
• One of the top 2 will likely come from outside the top 10 rucks
• Ruckman get hurt

The only 110+ averaging ruckman that has not dropped the next season is Sandi! Doesn't bode well for the top rucks this year and Mummy, Sandi and Martin should certainly be avoided due to injury/age.

The rucks are a fascinating position this year with the point scoring changes. It's a shame we don't know exactly what changes have been made.

Jacobs is young, injury free and extremely effective with his hit outs, but is that enough to justify picking him?

 

[KLo30]

Rucks
What can we take away from this for the class of 2014 in 2015?
• There will be a new top 2
• One of the top 2 won’t play the full season
• One of the top 2 will likely come from outside the top 10 rucks
• Ruckman get hurt

The only 110+ averaging ruckman that has not dropped the next season is Sandi! Doesn't bode well for the top rucks this year and Mummy, Sandi and Martin should certainly be avoided due to injury/age.

The rucks are a fascinating position this year with the point scoring changes. It's a shame we don't know exactly what changes have been made.

Jacobs is young, injury free and extremely effective with his hit outs, but is that enough to justify picking him?

Ruckman get hurt

Ya. Jacobs is nursing a jarred medial ligament and will miss 4 weeks.

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport...-season-heats-up/story-fnia3xzy-1227192452178

 

[Braider]

Awesome work KLo30. The colours of your tables, they make me want to put on some chillin' reggae and roll a huge spliff man.

 

[Impromptu]

Redirection error fixed!

 

[dicksilverman]

WOW! KLo, i agree with Braider, the colours rule mon! also, you've made my ruck choice change. this was a fascinating set of stats. i'm comfortable now starting one premo, one mid pricer. Great work!

 

[Zim^zuM]

Some good work, but a top 31 analysis would have been far more beneficial