2015: Premium Rucks
- Thread starter Erich1036
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TBC is awkwardly priced, won't be top 2 as a ruckman, nor top 6 as a forward. The only other way I could have him is if he had a history of durability and could be used as an F7/R3 reliably when crisis hit....and. like RB stated, he doesn't fit the bill. The plethora of good forward options (premiums and possibly rookies) also sways me into the 'no' category' since he probably won't make more cash than the rookies, won't be good enough to be a keeper, and you lose 200k from your starting squad that could be better spent upgrading a midpricer into a premium elsewhere on the field.
It seems to me that the preference for AFL teams is to have 2 ruckmen who can share the ruck load. Mike Pyke and Shane Mumford, Dean Cox and Nic Nat, Max Bailey and David Hale, Ben McEvoy and David Hale, Brad Ottens and Trent West. When they can't find 2 worthy ruckmen they settle for the solo ruckmen (like Jacobs, Martin, Mummy and Goldstein last year who become our supercoach premium rucks) with a tall key position player providing a cameo role. Even though these ruckmen are lauded for how good they are the AFL coach still thinks his team would be better with 2 and continues to search and experiment. Could this be one of the reasons it is so hard for the solo ruckmen to have consecutive premium supercoach years? Given this train of thought Sandi and Nic Nat look like the 2 ruckmen least likely to have their role affected as they have already been playing with a second ruckmen. Unless you get a situation where the second and third ruckmen are injured or not ready to play (like Brisbane last year) I think the solo ruckmen's job and scoring is always vulnerable to change.
Just thinking out loud!
Just thinking out loud!
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Solo Ruckmen are generally in the high 80's to 90% time on ground. 2 genuine ruckmen are mostly high 70's to low 80% time on ground. I think NicNat's time on ground (77.3%) will go up a little bit but his improvement will mainly come from more responsibility. I still think he is a good pick. Sandi was the most efficient ruckmen last year with only 80.7% time on ground, head (sorry for the pun) and heels above the other ruckmen who get most of their high scores from closer to 90% time on ground. I'm not saying to avoid solo ruckmen as they are the best scorers, but just make sure they are solo. Lets say we pay $620k for Jacobs and then Phil Walsh decides to see if Luke Lowden can work in tandem with him?????? Or we pay $574k for Goldstein and Jarrad Waite allows Ben Brown to spend more time in the ruck to reduce the burden on Goldstein??????
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Goodness knows what the dogs are thinking these days with a new coach and Tom Boyd. On one side we could play with Minson, Campbell and Boyd (and subbing Campbell in 3rd quarter) or having Minson do the majority of rucking with Tom Boyd doing duties inside the forward arch. With Minson turning 30 this year, there might be an emphasis on developing Campbell beyond VFL fodder. God help us if we start playing Ayce Cordy when Minson goes. This guy gives me nightmares every year when there is a clean-out and we don't delist him. What a waste of a first round pick.
