Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Rowsus, I am looking for some value in my backs and keep coming back to Shane Savage. I have not seen many people mention him on here so he would be a unique pick. His end to last season was what has me interested. What are your thoughts on him?

Mudflap, I am worried that his little hot streak at the end of last season was just that, a hot streak.
Injury history (game counts of: 3. 17, 18, 15, 14), poor SC history (56, 76, 56, 63, 69), and negative roles played more often than not all adds up to far too great of a risk for mine.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, happy new year!! We're off and running in Supercoach 2015 and my team has already been non-stop tinkered with. One young gun i'd like to consider is Devon Smith. At $490k he seems well priced based on his 91 point average last year and i think he could continue to grow his average. can you let me know any intel that might secure him a spot. I realise there are other options such as Swan and TMitch but i've got them already. cheers mate!

Hi ****, happy new year.
I like watching Smith play, and I've toyed with the idea of picking him, but I just can't do it.
Last season he looked like he was GWS's 5th Midfielder. When one of Ward, Treloar, Greene or Shiel was missing, Smith averaged 112. That means he averaged 81 when they all played. With the addition of Griffen he now becomes the 6th Mid, and therefore, nearly a permanent small Fwd. History says small Fwd's, even All Australian ones, are SC poison. I will be avoiding him.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Row. It's been a while since I posted here. I thought I'd post my reply from the rate my team thread here to get your advice.

DEF: K Simpson, L Hodge, J Newnes, C Pearce, B Waters, H Goddard (M Karpeny, D Voijo-Rainbow)
MID: G Ablett, T Rockliff, N Fyfe, B Gibbs, A Swallow, C Petracca, I Heeney, B Boekhorst (N Cockatoo, J Laverde, D McKenzie)
RUC: M Kreuzer, M Leuenburger (S Durdin)
FWD: R Gray, B Deledio, B Goddard, T Mitchell, T Membrey, M Clarke (D Markworth, C Daniel)

$17,500 left. Players in bold I'm set on. Rookies are placeholders but the more expensive ones I am pretty keen on.

These are the main things I'm contemplating.

-Are my 'risky' players bad choices (Newnes, Pearce, Waters, Gibbs, Swallow, Kreuzer, Luey)?
-Is Rocky the right choice over someone like Pendlebury? Will Brisbane's new midfielders restrict him?
-Do I need at least 1 set ruckman?
-Do I have too many midpricers?
-Is my structure even right?

SO MANY QUESTIONS

Thanks Rowsus

Hi bloke,
I don't usually do "rate my team" in this thread, but I will make ONE exception.
You only seem to have 10 Keepers, the minimum required is usually 12, and preferably 13.
You have too many "risk" players: Hodge, Pearce, Kreuzer, Leuenberger, then add in question marks on: Gibbs, Titch and possiblt Swallow and Waters. It's way too many. Try to hold your risks, to 2 or possibly 3 maximum.
I like Rocky, but anyone can see Pendles has a longer history. I think nearly every team should start with 2 or 3 of Ablett, Rocky, Pendles or Fyfe.
Yes, I think you need one of Goldy, NicNat or even Jacobs in there. Taking 2 very injury prone Rucks, with mediocre SC records would seem to be suicide in the 1st year without R4's.
Yes, see your risks above. Get more bankable players in your team.
No, your structure needs more balance too.
Sorry, to be honest I'd go back to the drawingboard on that one.

 

[Rowsus]

Can anyone tell me the price of Jason Holmes from St Kilda? He is the only player missing off my spreadsheet.
Thanks.

Im assuming you mean the ruckman, if this is the case he is $123,900.

$123.9k Ruc

Seems right.

 

[KLo30]

Hi Rowsus, happy new year!! We're off and running in Supercoach 2015 and my team has already been non-stop tinkered with. One young gun i'd like to consider is Devon Smith. At $490k he seems well priced based on his 91 point average last year and i think he could continue to grow his average. can you let me know any intel that might secure him a spot. I realise there are other options such as Swan and TMitch but i've got them already. cheers mate!

Hi ****, happy new year.
I like watching Smith play, and I've toyed with the idea of picking him, but I just can't do it.
Last season he looked like he was GWS's 5th Midfielder. When one of Ward, Treloar, Greene or Shiel was missing, Smith averaged 112. That means he averaged 81 when they all played. With the addition of Griffen he now becomes the 6th Mid, and therefore, nearly a permanent small Fwd. History says small Fwd's, even All Australian ones, are SC poison. I will be avoiding him.

Beat me Rowsus, I was just preparing an answer having completed his chart awhile ago. So for what it's worth here is my take.

Devon Smith had 8 100+ scores with 3 130+ (139, 134, 137), 6 80-100 scores and 4 <70 with a low of 44 in 2014. Whilst he has many dark blue areas, there is little to no room for improvement in TOG and Kick:HB, and his disposals are unlikely to improve unless he can crack more time in an already crowded GWS midfield. He&#8217;ll have to find improvement in disposal efficiency and up his goals into the 30-40 per season realm in order push his score into the 95-105 range to be SC relevant in 2015. After GWS&#8217;s bye he played all 14 games with an average of 99.4 including 6 110+ (all 3 of the 130+) with only one score below 75 (57 in round 18). On the negative side his increase in SC scores and disposals was on the back of increased midfield time due to injuries. With all being fit and healthy, and the inclusion of Griffen, midfield time will be of a premium and therefore he&#8217;ll likely to spend most of his time as a small forward.

 

[anfa18]

Hey BB, happy to help.
To be honest, I would be surprised if Ward can make another jump, and get into the 120+ area. There is too much history against it. I am sure you have read my posts in the past week, about players making decent jumps to high averages falling back the next season. For that reason, and also for the reason that, outside of Ablett, only 6 of the 26 120+ seasons recorded have been achieved by a player whose team failed to make the 8! The table shows where each players team finished, when each player achieved their 120+ season.
I think he will experience a small drop this season, something around 111.
To answer your question specifically, I would rate him around an $11 chance to crack 120+ this season.

Again, awesome!!

Are there any players you think can make the jump this season? My guess would have been a fully fit Dangerfield, but who knows with the contract talks and such.

 

[jarrad_]

how do you rate jarryd lyons chances of having a break out season??

when used as a starting sub he averaged 121 points per 100 minutes

and was 2nd behind dangerfield for contested possesions

surely with the new coach he wont be sub anymore and could finnaly score to his potential which is very good

 

[Blaze]

how do you rate jarryd lyons chances of having a break out season??

when used as a starting sub he averaged 121 points per 100 minutes

and was 2nd behind dangerfield for contested possesions

surely with the new coach he wont be sub anymore and could finaly score to his potential which is very good

I think if he plays he will score quite well but he is certainly no lock for best 22. He would probably rotate through the mid/fwd line - he knows how to find the goals I think he kicked 3 or 4 in a couple of games last year. I doubt we will see Scott Thompson, Jarrod Lyons, Matty Wright, Matt Crouch and Mitch Grigg all playing in the same team very often as the crows could be too one paced. If Thommo is injured and he seems ahead of the others he could do quite well.

Awkward price and with so many premo and rookie fwd options this year so I would say the risk is too high.

 

[dicksilverman]

thanks gents, much appreciated. back to the POD drawing board for forwards!

 

[bloke]

Hi bloke,
I don't usually do "rate my team" in this thread, but I will make ONE exception.
You only seem to have 10 Keepers, the minimum required is usually 12, and preferably 13.
You have too many "risk" players: Hodge, Pearce, Kreuzer, Leuenberger, then add in question marks on: Gibbs, Titch and possiblt Swallow and Waters. It's way too many. Try to hold your risks, to 2 or possibly 3 maximum.
I like Rocky, but anyone can see Pendles has a longer history. I think nearly every team should start with 2 or 3 of Ablett, Rocky, Pendles or Fyfe.
Yes, I think you need one of Goldy, NicNat or even Jacobs in there. Taking 2 very injury prone Rucks, with mediocre SC records would seem to be suicide in the 1st year without R4's.
Yes, see your risks above. Get more bankable players in your team.
No, your structure needs more balance too.
Sorry, to be honest I'd go back to the drawingboard on that one.

Thanks for making the exception Rowsus. My team has been completely overhauled and is looking much better now with 13 keepers

 

[rocknroll]

hello again mr Rowsus what are ur thoughts on one Daniel Wells

 

[Juzzo]

Hey Rows,

I'd like to know your thoughts on Harry Taylor.
He started off poorly last year, then came good.
If he had a good start to the year he would've averaged a lot higher than 83 a game.
Is he unders at $446,900?

Thanks
Juzzo

 

[lipsunited]

Hey BB, happy to help.
To be honest, I would be surprised if Ward can make another jump, and get into the 120+ area. There is too much history against it. I am sure you have read my posts in the past week, about players making decent jumps to high averages falling back the next season. For that reason, and also for the reason that, outside of Ablett, only 6 of the 26 120+ seasons recorded have been achieved by a player whose team failed to make the 8! The table shows where each players team finished, when each player achieved their 120+ season.

I think he will experience a small drop this season, something around 111.
To answer your question specifically, I would rate him around an $11 chance to crack 120+ this season.

Love your work Rowus however I think ward has a few things going in his favour;
His age - 24
The contested role he plays is harder to tag and with griffin arriving he may not even get tagged
Hasn't been in a great team and still scored well
Loves to tackle
If you take out his injury effected games ave 116.2

Personally him going in with the strategy of two premiums that ave over 120 in 2014 and two bw 110 and 120 that show good value and could make the jump

On another note what are your thoughts of Harley Bennell?


2014 ranking 425 however was only concerned with my league wins..

 

[Rowsus]

Again, awesome!!

Are there any players you think can make the jump this season? My guess would have been a fully fit Dangerfield, but who knows with the contract talks and such.

Thanks anfa,
there is no one i'm super confident in right now, I must admit, so for the moment I will be picking proven players, and not hoping to find that break out player.

 

[siwel]

Thanks anfa,
there is no one i'm super confident in right now, I must admit, so for the moment I will be picking proven players, and not hoping to find that break out player.

What about Lachie Neale?

 

[Braider]

...there is no one i'm super confident in right now, I must admit, so for the moment I will be picking proven players, and not hoping to find that break out player.

What about Lachie Neale?

Yehh, and what about Docherty ?

 

[siwel]

Rowsus, can I ask for your insights into Taylor Adams. Not one I had previously considered but report after report is of him "tearing up the pre season" (which I know are to be taken with a grain of salt). Another report also said something along the lines of Adams wanting a mid spot and he wanted to leave Bucks with no doubt and no option but to play him there.

Articles - here and here some good stats in there as well.

At $378,500 and a Fwd/Mid I am looking at him for a spot in my Fwd line in a F4 type of spot
Cheers mate

 

[anfa18]

Rowsus, can I ask for your insights into Taylor Adams. Not one I had previously considered but report after report is of him "tearing up the pre season" (which I know are to be taken with a grain of salt). Another report also said something along the lines of Adams wanting a mid spot and he wanted to leave Bucks with no doubt and no option but to play him there.

Articles - here and here some good stats in there as well.

At $378,500 and a Fwd/Mid I am looking at him for a spot in my Fwd line in a F4 type of spot
Cheers mate

My personal opinion siwel... Unproven player at mid range price ($378,500) is usually a bad idea. He needs to either average 90+ and be a keeper at F6/7 or make 125k+ cash, which means he needs to average 90+ anyway. If you think he can average 90 then sure, if not then i wouldn't bother.

 

[siwel]

My personal opinion siwel... Unproven player at mid range price ($378,500) is usually a bad idea. He needs to either average 90+ and be a keeper at F6/7 or make 125k+ cash, which means he needs to average 90+ anyway. If you think he can average 90 then sure, if not then i wouldn't bother.

cheers for the opinion anfa18. I agree and hadnt considered him or anyone else at that price range. I have been somewhat suckered into the preseason hype about him so thought I would ask Rowsus if he had any info that pointed either way.

Players at that age, price range and unproven as you said are normally fraught with danger

 

[Rowsus]

how do you rate jarryd lyons chances of having a break out season??

when used as a starting sub he averaged 121 points per 100 minutes

and was 2nd behind dangerfield for contested possesions

surely with the new coach he wont be sub anymore and could finnaly score to his potential which is very good

He certainly had some games with good stats in the SANFL, I'm just worried he's behind a few of the other young guns in Adelaides team. Even in the SANFL, his role seemed to go backwards when the like of B Crouch were playing. He could make a jump, but it seems a big risk for now.