2015: Premium Rucks

[Nathan]

I think the problem with Jacobs is he will likely be the number 1 ranked ruck but he's technically overpriced with the rule change.

I haven't had a chance to do any meaningful analysis but it's looking like starting with value picks in the ruck then upgrading when the change of scoring brings down their and price will be the way to go.

This does seem the smart approach but I'm still resisting having any of TBC/Berger/Kreuzer. If quality tap ruckman like Jacobs/Sandi/Goldy are losing 7-10 points then i think a worse scenario needs to applied to the cheaper ruckman. I think under normal circumstances Berger and Kreuzer this year are 85-95 players, if they are losing 15 ppg due to scoring changes they now become 70-80 point players. I see TBC as an 85 ppg player which could become 70ppg. I understand that all the premium ruckman will drop value due to changes but the mid price ruckman will appreciate less and still be 20ppg down and then throw in there injury problems.
FWIW i like the changes but it's causing some headaches.

 

[IDIG]

This does seem the smart approach but I'm still resisting having any of TBC/Berger/Kreuzer. If quality tap ruckman like Jacobs/Sandi/Goldy are losing 7-10 points then i think a worse scenario needs to applied to the cheaper ruckman. I think under normal circumstances Berger and Kreuzer this year are 85-95 players, if they are losing 15 ppg due to scoring changes they now become 70-80 point players. I see TBC as an 85 ppg player which could become 70ppg. I understand that all the premium ruckman will drop value due to changes but the mid price ruckman will appreciate less and still be 20ppg down and then throw in there injury problems.
FWIW i like the changes but it's causing some headaches.

I'm with you, have not considered any of TBC/Berger/Kreuzer until today and having them in allows me to bring in a 5th midfielder but it feels like a massive risk with the unknowns surrounding the change in scoring and their roles/scoring potential...which pretty much guarantees i'll be burning a trade or three fixing the problem

I do like seeing a 5th midfielder and the peace of mind starting one less midfield rookie brings though but am unsure it's the best foot forward for points on the park or for the long term good of my team.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Yeah agree with you! But I think he's still good to consider for an upgrade option because he's still a premier ruck of the competition. But he has had an interrupted preseason which will no doubt affect his scoring ability this year.

Definitely would not consider starting him.

Has he? I wasn't aware of this. Last year Jacobs had a really good pre season (by all accounts) which allowed him to have a good season. I think the year before it was interrupted and he had some injury concerns.
Interrupted preseason = red flag for me.

 

[bloke]

Not sure if it's been brought up but is there any reason why no one is picking Sandi? I'm not going anywhere near him but if age wasn't a problem for him last season why would it be now?

 

[Nathan]

Has he? I wasn't aware of this. Last year Jacobs had a really good pre season (by all accounts) which allowed him to have a good season. I think the year before it was interrupted and he had some injury concerns.
Interrupted preseason = red flag for me.

RE Jacobs injury
http://m.adelaidenow.com.au/sport/a...192452178?nk=f148e62c011f87df0a55907508124ff8

 

[Xenomorph]

Not sure if it's been brought up but is there any reason why no one is picking Sandi? I'm not going anywhere near him but if age wasn't a problem for him last season why would it be now?

For me it's the same reason I'm not starting any of the premium rucks.

The scoring changes mean that all of them are overpriced to start with, so IMO the way to go is to pick 2 mid or rookies (if one should arise) that are going to at least not lose value, then trade up once the premos have dropped in price (say 7-8 weeks in).

I figure this will save 200-300k and will also enable me to pick the best premiums which have usually revealed themselves around that stage.

Could go horribly wrong too, but that's supercoach.

 

[bloke]

For me it's the same reason I'm not starting any of the premium rucks.

The scoring changes mean that all of them are overpriced to start with, so IMO the way to go is to pick 2 mid or rookies (if one should arise) that are going to at least not lose value, then trade up once the premos have dropped in price (say 7-8 weeks in).

I figure this will save 200-300k and will also enable me to pick the best premiums which have usually revealed themselves around that stage.

Could go horribly wrong too, but that's supercoach.

Fair enough. I just thought it was something against Sandi in particular. I'm expecting pretty Mich what we got last year from him. Whether that means lower scores I don't know. I'm not touching him

 

[IDIG]

I believe sandi also had the most hit outs to disadvantage along with a poor hit out to advantage ranking.

 

[Maso]

Im not sure what to think of the ruck rule change , but if we all jump of the premium rucks because they may drop due to less points will this not also be the same for the cheaper guys ? lets say its a 5-10 point drop in scores for all rucks then wouldnt choosing a a ruck who can average 85 (previously) but is priced at 75 be of little value ? and would be better of still spending on a guy that can score 95 (down from 105) yes its about $ but 2x20pts extra a week could be a huge difference.
im not sure that even make sense lol but thats my dilemma with rucks - points or $$

 

[bloke]

I believe sandi also had the most hit outs to disadvantage along with a poor hit out to advantage ranking.

Ok I didn't know that. It's funny because watching Freo play even though we get plenty if hitouts be never seem to dominate clearances even against lesser teams.

 

[Prochard]

These stats are really far off.
Jacobs will have the exact same score with the new system. Having a33% hit out to advantage ensures that you are unaffected by the new system. Anything lower than33% will affect the ruckmen negatively. Mumford according to my calculations drops from 112.7 to 108.4 not 100.9

Also, I'm also sold on starting mumford

Just came across some interesting stats that were in the prospectus about the effect of new ruck scoring rules on 5 Premiums of 2014

Sam Jacobs 118.5 drops to 111.4
Stef Martin 115.3 drops to 105
Sandi 110.8 drops to 99.9
Goldy 106.6 drops to 96.9
Mumford 112.7 drops to 100.9

The affect of the new rules definitely makes all the lower priced options much more attractive! I think any ruck that can average 100+ would be a premium (no longer 110+).
Also another consideration would be that there are more points for other players in the SC pie (5 to 10 points per game) [Probably a very minor consideration]

I was already considering Nic Nat/Berger/Kreuzer before but after hearing those drops in averages, I think that's the only viable combination now.

Edit: Some other stats
Warnock 81.0 to 69.2
Pyke 79.8 to 70.2
Jamar 84.3 to 72.9
Hickey 86.1 to 75.5
Minson 94.8 to 82.0

Edit: just looking at those stats again, not sure about the accuracy because the 2014 averages seem off :/
Apologies for misinformation

Didn't see the edit

 

[Drew]

o

Im not sure what to think of the ruck rule change , but if we all jump of the premium rucks because they may drop due to less points will this not also be the same for the cheaper guys ? lets say its a 5-10 point drop in scores for all rucks then wouldnt choosing a a ruck who can average 85 (previously) but is priced at 75 be of little value ? and would be better of still spending on a guy that can score 95 (down from 105) yes its about $ but 2x20pts extra a week could be a huge difference.
im not sure that even make sense lol but thats my dilemma with rucks - points or $$

Yeah that's what i was thinking, i think you've gotta grab (what you think is) a set-and-forget R1 then maybe tinker with value at R2, if these mid price looking rucks do just end up being mid price looking rucks then i reckon you could have a hell of a time trying to upgrade 2 of them during the season.

 

[Bomber18]

These stats are really far off.
Jacobs will have the exact same score with the new system. Having a33% hit out to advantage ensures that you are unaffected by the new system. Anything lower than33% will affect the ruckmen negatively. Mumford according to my calculations drops from 112.7 to 108.4 not 100.9

Also, I'm also sold on starting mumford

Didn't see the edit

Yeah, the stats are from prospectus.
The 2014 averages are off so I don't know how they got the 2014 numbers like that haha. And your point about the 33% HTA is what had me second guessing too!



Another point on the mid-pricer ruckman's scoring going down too. Players like Kruezer, Berger and TBC are great forward presences as well, so with their contested marks and goals, they are still underpriced options and are a good chance to average 85-90+

 

[Nathan]

Yeah, the stats are from prospectus.
The 2014 averages are off so I don't know how they got the 2014 numbers like that haha. And your point about the 33% HTA is what had me second guessing too!



Another point on the mid-pricer ruckman's scoring going down too. Players like Kruezer, Berger and TBC are great forward presences as well, so with their contested marks and goals, they are still underpriced options and are a good chance to average 85-90+

Leuenberger has never shown anything as a FWD

 

[Brettthejett]

Can you pick any ruck with confidence??? sort answer NO!!!
currently sitting with mummy and nic nat but why are they all so damn injury prone.

 

[IDIG]

Can you pick any ruck with confidence??? sort answer NO!!!
currently sitting with mummy and nic nat but why are they all so damn injury prone.

This is part of the reason why im reluctant to start 2 of NicNat/Kreuzer/Berger...assuming no rookies pop up, we won't have any cover and very limited options at their prices (Kreuzer/Berger moreso) so it makes me want to go back to a set and forget ruck combo with the peace of mind, there's less chance i'll be eating annoying donuts early.

 

[Brettthejett]

This is part of the reason why im reluctant to start 2 of NicNat/Kreuzer/Berger...assuming no rookies pop up, we won't have any cover and very limited options at their prices (Kreuzer/Berger moreso) so it makes me want to go back to a set and forget ruck combo with the peace of mind, there's less chance i'll be eating annoying donuts early.

Yeah i know i just changed last night to mummy and nic nat but they are two of the best at getting injured at least id be able to replace them if they were mummy for anyone and nic nat for lycett becoming no1 ruck

 

[freowho]

Rowsus's research is still the most compelling for me. The top rucks are hardly ever the same each year. I won't be starting with any of the top 5, too much money to risk.

 

[Braider]

Can you pick any ruck with confidence??? sort answer NO!!!
currently sitting with mummy and nic nat but why are they all so damn injury prone.

Rowsus's research is still the most compelling for me. The top rucks are hardly ever the same each year. I won't be starting with any of the top 5, too much money to risk.

Aaaand this is why I'm having the least possible rucks in my team, three.
R3 will be a Ruc/Fwd, but NO ruck will start in my forward line.
Even three rucks is too many.
As Rowsus famously said about keys and locks and doors maybe some Ruc/Fwd action later on, but not at Rnd1.

 

[freowho]

This does seem the smart approach but I'm still resisting having any of TBC/Berger/Kreuzer. If quality tap ruckman like Jacobs/Sandi/Goldy are losing 7-10 points then i think a worse scenario needs to applied to the cheaper ruckman. I think under normal circumstances Berger and Kreuzer this year are 85-95 players, if they are losing 15 ppg due to scoring changes they now become 70-80 point players. I see TBC as an 85 ppg player which could become 70ppg. I understand that all the premium ruckman will drop value due to changes but the mid price ruckman will appreciate less and still be 20ppg down and then throw in there injury problems.
FWIW i like the changes but it's causing some headaches.

I agree with the argument and would prefer not to have an injury prone midpricer in my team but you have to include the element of scale into the maths. The mid pricer will appreciate less than last year, but 10ppg is more damaging to the value of a $600k player than to a $350k player. The fact that all their scores are being reduced means the gap between them will be reduced so it will be easier to make the leap from a midpricer to a premium than it was last year. And because Supercoach is not a team full of ruckmen this scale won't apply with the other lines so the money you would be losing with a premium ruckman compared to a midpriced ruckmen still has more value elsewhere on the ground.