2015: Premium Rucks

[Jurn Stern]

This does seem the smart approach but I'm still resisting having any of TBC/Berger/Kreuzer. If quality tap ruckman like Jacobs/Sandi/Goldy are losing 7-10 points then i think a worse scenario needs to applied to the cheaper ruckman. I think under normal circumstances Berger and Kreuzer this year are 85-95 players, if they are losing 15 ppg due to scoring changes they now become 70-80 point players. I see TBC as an 85 ppg player which could become 70ppg. I understand that all the premium ruckman will drop value due to changes but the mid price ruckman will appreciate less and still be 20ppg down and then throw in there injury problems.
FWIW i like the changes but it's causing some headaches.

I would just like to know where those numbers are coming from. Kruezer's has averaged 92-98, and Berger has averaged 97-102. So if you lump them together that is between 92-102. These guys are not average ruckman, they are injury prone. The arent the best, but don't lump them down with the 85s. And why are they losing 15 points. They are both reasonable tap ruckman, Berger is a more pure tap ruck, and from what I can read they aren't losing 15 points but between 8-12 points. Say 10 for argument sake. And for argument sake Berger/Kreuzer score at 97 in the old scoring, so they would be scoring 87 in the new. An 87 ruck would be priced at 468k, so we are saving 100k. Assuming Goldy drops to 96.9, then we are paying 570k for a 520k ruckman. I think we all other rucks we are paying around 50k overs.

I like estimating scores, but you've got to have a good basis for your estimates, otherwise you unfairs weight the picks that you want vs the picks you don't.

 

[IDIG]

Great post Jurn and it's a really interesting point you make. My estimates are similar to Nathan's as well with change of ruck scoring, potential role changes, competition, and that they're both returning from injury as my main reasons.

Your point about how top enders will be overpriced is undeniable (well in my eyes anyway) and that Kreuzer/Berger represent great value but for me, this game is only about value or we'd all be starting with mid pricers. Not to suggest i won't eventually end up going with Kreuzer/Berger either but for now, i'm gonna sit firmly on the fence about rucks

 

[IDIG]

I agree with the argument and would prefer not to have an injury prone midpricer in my team but you have to include the element of scale into the maths. The mid pricer will appreciate less than last year, but 10ppg is more damaging to the value of a $600k player than to a $350k player. The fact that all their scores are being reduced means the gap between them will be reduced so it will be easier to make the leap from a midpricer to a premium than it was last year. And because Supercoach is not a team full of ruckmen this scale won't apply with the other lines so the money you would be losing with a premium ruckman compared to a midpriced ruckmen still has more value elsewhere on the ground.

Great points as well freowho.. really is making rucks impossible to feel settled on!

 

[Maso]

Great post Jurn and it's a really interesting point you make. My estimates are similar to Nathan's as well with change of ruck scoring, potential role changes, competition, and that they're both returning from injury as my main reasons.

Your point about how top enders will be overpriced is undeniable (well in my eyes anyway) and that Kreuzer/Berger represent great value but for me, this game is only about value or we'd all be starting with mid pricers. Not to suggest i won't eventually end up going with Kreuzer/Berger either but for now, i'm gonna sit firmly on the fence about rucks

this is me lol on the fence, not going premo rucks not go cheapo sitting in middle with nicnat and bigboy

 

[Brettthejett]

this is me lol on the fence, not going premo rucks not go cheapo sitting in middle with nicnat and bigboy

Not a bad option quite like it

 

[Jurn Stern]

Great post Jurn and it's a really interesting point you make. My estimates are similar to Nathan's as well with change of ruck scoring, potential role changes, competition, and that they're both returning from injury as my main reasons.

Your point about how top enders will be overpriced is undeniable (well in my eyes anyway) and that Kreuzer/Berger represent great value but for me, this game is only about value or we'd all be starting with mid pricers. Not to suggest i won't eventually end up going with Kreuzer/Berger either but for now, i'm gonna sit firmly on the fence about rucks

The number 1 hope for me is that there is a ruck rookie that is a round 1 bolter and has some job security. If that happens, I may start that rookie at R2 just so I don't have to make the decision!

 

[Slugus]

The number 1 hope for me is that there is a ruck rookie that is a round 1 bolter and has some job security. If that happens, I may start that rookie at R2 just so I don't have to make the decision!

One can only hope! Currently running Nic Nat and Goldstein at the moment, both fairly reliable in regards to injuries, both unpriced compared with previous seasons and both have been the #1 ruck in previous years so are proven that they have the potential to do it.

Locked and loaded for me at this stage unless I see the Krewburg come out in the NAB cup on fire perhaps... If Warnock isn't named round 1 then that would also perhaps weight my decision to go with Kruezer but I think I'll steer clear of the Burg. TBC was on my radar for quite some time but more research, thought and my team structure coming together more, I have now written him off... well for the time being until I have a change of heart next week?

 

[Bob Loblaw]

I would just like to know where those numbers are coming from. Kruezer's has averaged 92-98, and Berger has averaged 97-102. So if you lump them together that is between 92-102. These guys are not average ruckman, they are injury prone. The arent the best, but don't lump them down with the 85s. And why are they losing 15 points. They are both reasonable tap ruckman, Berger is a more pure tap ruck, and from what I can read they aren't losing 15 points but between 8-12 points. Say 10 for argument sake. And for argument sake Berger/Kreuzer score at 97 in the old scoring, so they would be scoring 87 in the new. An 87 ruck would be priced at 468k, so we are saving 100k. Assuming Goldy drops to 96.9, then we are paying 570k for a 520k ruckman. I think we all other rucks we are paying around 50k overs.

I like estimating scores, but you've got to have a good basis for your estimates, otherwise you unfairs weight the picks that you want vs the picks you don't.

Firstly id like to start by asking whether we are taking the prospectus guide seriously? Year averages are wrong and changes dont really make sense. Just by using the +5 for hitouts to advantage and 0 for hitouts to nowhere (As done by Kklo3) the drops are much less significant. 0 for Jacobs

While I agree what you are saying both Kreuzer and Luenburger are in different positions to when they were scoring at that premium level.
Malthouse has already come out and said that Kreuzer will be playing forward which i think puts him in that 80-85 range comfortably considering Warnock cant do anything else but use his and to alter the direction of a a falling ball.
Luenburger seems a little bit more sturdy but the presence of Martin is a huge unknown after his great season last year they may toy with various structures which could lead to heavily fluctuating scores.

Finally your saying these blokes are averaging 87 hypothetically. Is that enough for a keeper?? Goldy averaged 125 in the second half of last season and has averaged 110+ for multiple seasons so even with these new rules 105 is still in the range of possibilities. (If Prospectus ruck scores are what we are going off). Do you want to be giving up 25 points in your ruck department each game to a more superior combo?

 

[IDIG]

I think Kreuzer and Berger would have to be stepping stones while the fully priced rucks come down in price with the change in rule. I feel pretty confident in saying that most wouldn't expect them to be keepers (although they'd sure he hoping!).

I must say it's making for ripping discussion. Don't think I recall rucks ever being this much of an unknown with coaches still unsure about which way to go.

 

[Hondo]

History says $300k rucks are good picks

HMac 2009
Maric 2012
Luey 2013 (what did Minson start at?)
Sandi 2014

2010-2011 memory escapes me maybe none presented those years.

I'm quite happy with picking Luey at this stage. The guy can play. Value wise will Goldy deliver 40-50ppg more for your $200k+?

 

[IDIG]

Anyone had a look at big Will Minson at $501k? Struggled with a back injury last year but still managed to average 93sc with 36 hitouts a game. Similar to how Jacobs came off a bad season, Will has spoken out about how he's "even more determined to return to good form next year” and "It’s just a challenge every year and you’ve got to find ways to improve and I’ll be working hard in the off-season to find those improvements."

Apparently he and Macca didn't quite see eye to eye as well and those who have been watching the doggies train reckon he has been a clear standout this preason... "training the house down" would you believe

 

[IDIG]

History says $300k rucks are good picks

HMac 2009
Maric 2012
Luey 2013 (what did Minson start at?)
Sandi 2014

2010-2011 memory escapes me maybe none presented those years.

I'm quite happy with picking Luey at this stage. The guy can play. Value wise will Goldy deliver 40-50ppg more for your $200k+?

There's been a few fluff as well though. Hickey and the other St Kilda ruck whatever his name is. Hmac last year?

You're right though, it's very unlikely that the top enders will work out better value for money than these 2.

I'm gonna just sit back on my fence and remain completely undecided

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Anyone had a look at big Will Minson at $501k? Struggled with a back injury last year but still managed to average 93sc with 36 hitouts a game. Similar to how Jacobs came off a bad season, Will has spoken out about how he's "even more determined to return to good form next year” and "It’s just a challenge every year and you’ve got to find ways to improve and I’ll be working hard in the off-season to find those improvements."

Apparently he and Macca didn't quite see eye to eye as well and those who have been watching the doggies train reckon he has been a clear standout this preason... "training the house down" would you believe

Yep, I have given him some consideration and I think he could be a good option. He was well down on both hit outs and possessions last year compared to 2013 which could certainly be attributed to him carrying a back injury all year. If he can lift his stats back up to 2013 level then there's no reason why he can't average 100. I don't think he could average near 114 again though as a result of the new ruck scoring this year but I don't think any ruckman will even average 110 this year. Would be a nice POD and could save you 75k when compared to the popular Goldstein.

 

[Rowsus]

History says $300k rucks are good picks

HMac 2009
Maric 2012
Luey 2013 (what did Minson start at?)
Sandi 2014

2010-2011 memory escapes me maybe none presented those years.

I'm quite happy with picking Luey at this stage. The guy can play. Value wise will Goldy deliver 40-50ppg more for your $200k+?

I know you were generalising, but just to put an even keel on it all.
In 2009 there were 19 Rucks that started the season between $280k and $380k.
9 of them played 18 or more games for the season, but only 3 were "good picks" according to their price.
Tippett 22 games @ 80
McIntosh 22 games @ 92
Clark 22 games @ 94

 

[Rowsus]

Anyone had a look at big Will Minson at $501k? Struggled with a back injury last year but still managed to average 93sc with 36 hitouts a game. Similar to how Jacobs came off a bad season, Will has spoken out about how he's "even more determined to return to good form next year” and "It’s just a challenge every year and you’ve got to find ways to improve and I’ll be working hard in the off-season to find those improvements."

Apparently he and Macca didn't quite see eye to eye as well and those who have been watching the doggies train reckon he has been a clear standout this preason... "training the house down" would you believe

Yep, I have given him some consideration and I think he could be a good option. He was well down on both hit outs and possessions last year compared to 2013 which could certainly be attributed to him carrying a back injury all year. If he can lift his stats back up to 2013 level then there's no reason why he can't average 100. I don't think he could average near 114 again though as a result of the new ruck scoring this year but I don't think any ruckman will even average 110 this year. Would be a nice POD and could save you 75k when compared to the popular Goldstein.

Everything about his 2013 screamed spike year, which means it is unlikely to be replicated. When you look at his previous seasons, and take the 2013 season out, 2014 produced pretty much exactly what you might have expected of him.

 

[Slugus]

Everything about his 2013 screamed spike year, which means it is unlikely to be replicated. When you look at his previous seasons, and take the 2013 season out, 2014 produced pretty much exactly what you might of expected of him.

Do you think the same applies to Maric? I have read a number of things around the place touting him as a good option but when you look at;

Year Games Average
2006 8 33.8
2007 6 53.0
2008 15 72.0
2009 18 54.3
2010 21 66.7
2011 6 69.3
2012 21 113.4
2013 19 96.9
2014 13 99.7

It just seems that 2012 was a spike year and he may play 20 games for 100 average this year but if he did you'd count yourself lucky as he can certainly do worse?

Certainly agree about Will Minson, doesn't seem to have the same stats to back himself as Goldy or Sandi and without that single year he isn't any better than others that are a lot cheaper!

 

[Rowsus]

Do you think the same applies to Maric? I have read a number of things around the place touting him as a good option but when you look at;

Year Games Average
2006 8 33.8
2007 6 53.0
2008 15 72.0
2009 18 54.3
2010 21 66.7
2011 6 69.3
2012 21 113.4
2013 19 96.9
2014 13 99.7

It just seems that 2012 was a spike year and he may play 20 games for 100 average this year but if he did you'd count yourself lucky as he can certainly do worse?

Certainly agree about Will Minson, doesn't seem to have the same stats to back himself as Goldy or Sandi and without that single year he isn't any better than others that are a lot cheaper!

The thing that worries me with Maric, is that Hardwicke described Maric's condition as chronic, and needing management throughout his career. I tried to find the article that had that a couple of weeks ago, but couldn't (The article was late in 2013, from memory). I think fit and firing he's a potential top 3 or 4 ruck, as we saw late last season. We just never know how long he will be fit and firing though. From memory that chronic condition was a groin injury, but I'm happy for anyone to correct me on that.

 

[TeeButOne]

It's been summed up in a few comments earlier, but the thing that is missing from the conversation is that players like Kreuzer and Leuenberger will also suffer a decline as a result of the new scoring system. So I think you need to be realistic in that neither of these 2 will get back to anything near a 100 average, and even if they did manage something around 95, they would probably only be making you about $100k. Not really worthy of a 'stepping stone' trade, plus it comes with the risk of injury.

The major difference to Sandilands last year was that he has regularly proven to be able to score 110+, so the risk was definitely worth the reward, as either (a) he remained a keeper (which he did), or (b) he made it 6-8 games before getting injured again, but probably would have made $200k profit (more than enough to allow you to do a comfortable sideways trade).

I think that we have to accept that no matter which premium you select, he's going to go down a little, but in the end, we need at least 1 reliable premium to hold down the fort.

 

[Jurn Stern]

Firstly id like to start by asking whether we are taking the prospectus guide seriously? Year averages are wrong and changes dont really make sense. Just by using the +5 for hitouts to advantage and 0 for hitouts to nowhere (As done by Kklo3) the drops are much less significant. 0 for Jacobs

While I agree what you are saying both Kreuzer and Luenburger are in different positions to when they were scoring at that premium level.
Malthouse has already come out and said that Kreuzer will be playing forward which i think puts him in that 80-85 range comfortably considering Warnock cant do anything else but use his and to alter the direction of a a falling ball.
Luenburger seems a little bit more sturdy but the presence of Martin is a huge unknown after his great season last year they may toy with various structures which could lead to heavily fluctuating scores.

Finally your saying these blokes are averaging 87 hypothetically. Is that enough for a keeper?? Goldy averaged 125 in the second half of last season and has averaged 110+ for multiple seasons so even with these new rules 105 is still in the range of possibilities. (If Prospectus ruck scores are what we are going off). Do you want to be giving up 25 points in your ruck department each game to a more superior combo?

87 won't be enough for a keeper. It will be enough gain 100k.
Goldy will set you back 574k. If he averages 105, then he will drop 50k from his starting price.

If he does average 105, then I'd be wagering that I can spend the 200k starting price difference and gain better value than just 18 points.

I don't want to give up 25 (the difference is 18) points per game, but I'm not 'giving up' points at all. I'm simply getting those points in another area of the ground.

 

[Hondo]

That's right. In the early rounds it's a balance between cash generation and maximum points from your $10m cap.

Assuming everyone gets Goldy eventually in the meantime it's that value of loose change argument.

If Goldy loses $50k and Luey makes $100 then there's only a $50k straight swap in theory.

So then it's how that $200k is used and maybe it's on a better rookie (ie Tyson last year) or avoiding a speculative defender.