Anyone have a POD they are(n't) willing to share?
- Thread starter dicksilverman
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Has anybody given David Swallow any thought? I assume since he is no longer a defender, and possibly a tad expensive, not many have. But here are some of the reasons why I am seriously considering him:
He is not a flash in the pan. He was the number one draft pick for a good reason..he will be a gun! He is just coming off a career year where he spent his first full year in the midfield, so there is still room for plenty of natural progression.
He was averaging 107.2 after round 16 then fall away a bit from there. The fading can be put down to a few reasons:
1- No Ablett. As soon as Ablett finished his season through inury, at round 16, Swallows scores went down as a result.
2- Fatigue. Still only a kid and was playing his first full year in the guts. Its not surprising that as the year went on his scores dropped off.
3- Losses. With the team as a whole dropping off, it is much harder to score points during losses.
Based on his Pts/TOG100% alone last year (133) his score will jump to 109 if he can lift his TOG to 82% from 77.5% which is very achievable (had one sub affected game)
His Pts/Disposal rates very highly for midfielders. He is ahead of the likes of Ablett, Rocky, Pendles, JPK, Danger, Murphy, Boak, Priddis etc. He averaged 23.32 possessions last year, so I would think that this can quite easily be increased by 1-2 at least and 3-4 would not surprise.
Almost 50% of his possessions are contested, he averaged over 5 clearances per game and he averaged 5.36 tackles per game. These three stats are gold in Supercoach.
He kicked 15 goals, but 20 behinds so this is another avenue for him to increase his scoring. 35 shots on goal for a midfielder is huge. Selwood is looked at as a goal kicking mid and he had 37 shots on goal for the season.
His disposal efficiency is low, but that is to be expected with a contested ball player. His clanger count was quite high, so if this can be slighty reduced there is more room for improvement. Also, his free kick count was 5 in the negative. If he turns this around (his brother always seems to have a good frees for to free against ratio) there are a few more points.
Im sure there are a few negatives to go along with this, but imo he can average 110+ this season and would definitely be a POD.
Any thoughts?
He is not a flash in the pan. He was the number one draft pick for a good reason..he will be a gun! He is just coming off a career year where he spent his first full year in the midfield, so there is still room for plenty of natural progression.
He was averaging 107.2 after round 16 then fall away a bit from there. The fading can be put down to a few reasons:
1- No Ablett. As soon as Ablett finished his season through inury, at round 16, Swallows scores went down as a result.
2- Fatigue. Still only a kid and was playing his first full year in the guts. Its not surprising that as the year went on his scores dropped off.
3- Losses. With the team as a whole dropping off, it is much harder to score points during losses.
Based on his Pts/TOG100% alone last year (133) his score will jump to 109 if he can lift his TOG to 82% from 77.5% which is very achievable (had one sub affected game)
His Pts/Disposal rates very highly for midfielders. He is ahead of the likes of Ablett, Rocky, Pendles, JPK, Danger, Murphy, Boak, Priddis etc. He averaged 23.32 possessions last year, so I would think that this can quite easily be increased by 1-2 at least and 3-4 would not surprise.
Almost 50% of his possessions are contested, he averaged over 5 clearances per game and he averaged 5.36 tackles per game. These three stats are gold in Supercoach.
He kicked 15 goals, but 20 behinds so this is another avenue for him to increase his scoring. 35 shots on goal for a midfielder is huge. Selwood is looked at as a goal kicking mid and he had 37 shots on goal for the season.
His disposal efficiency is low, but that is to be expected with a contested ball player. His clanger count was quite high, so if this can be slighty reduced there is more room for improvement. Also, his free kick count was 5 in the negative. If he turns this around (his brother always seems to have a good frees for to free against ratio) there are a few more points.
Im sure there are a few negatives to go along with this, but imo he can average 110+ this season and would definitely be a POD.
Any thoughts?
I love the thought process and to me it could definitely work. I think this year he will be more of a streaky year for him and maybe next year he could roll it out on a more consistent basis.
Wouldn't surprise me if he had a 6-10 week block where he averages 120+ but then I feel that will be negated by a block of games where he averages 80.
If you can get the blocks right and buy/sell at the right time you could definitely be onto a winner!
Wouldn't surprise me if he had a 6-10 week block where he averages 120+ but then I feel that will be negated by a block of games where he averages 80.
If you can get the blocks right and buy/sell at the right time you could definitely be onto a winner!
^ Great post Mikebray - certainly food for thought. The only tough thing about taking someone at Swallow's price, is that selecting him mean you're backing him to be a top 10 mid. I think Wines probably offers more upside at this stage, though he will be more selected.
I think Buddy has the potential to be relatively unique in the first half of the season. People are steering clear given the plethora of forward options available, and the fact that he's a KPP, but I think he's very reasonably priced at 100ppg. His averages in 2010, 2011 and 2012 were 107.4, 110.7 and 115.5 respectively. After one year in the Swans' set up, and all the speculation that came with it behind him, this should be a massive year for him.
Take a look at last year in isolation - his first half dozen rounds were awful, as he struggled to adapt to the new system. His scores in this period were 54, 79, 130, 29, 104, 31 - for an average of 71.2 ppg.
From Round 8 onwards, we saw more of what we'd expect from him, and he averaged 113 for the remainder of the season. I think he has the potential to go even better than this in 2015. The Swans will be a near unstoppable outfit, he can only benefit from that. Age 27, in the prime of his career, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him in the top two or three averaging forwards this year, with a 115 average.
I think Buddy has the potential to be relatively unique in the first half of the season. People are steering clear given the plethora of forward options available, and the fact that he's a KPP, but I think he's very reasonably priced at 100ppg. His averages in 2010, 2011 and 2012 were 107.4, 110.7 and 115.5 respectively. After one year in the Swans' set up, and all the speculation that came with it behind him, this should be a massive year for him.
Take a look at last year in isolation - his first half dozen rounds were awful, as he struggled to adapt to the new system. His scores in this period were 54, 79, 130, 29, 104, 31 - for an average of 71.2 ppg.
From Round 8 onwards, we saw more of what we'd expect from him, and he averaged 113 for the remainder of the season. I think he has the potential to go even better than this in 2015. The Swans will be a near unstoppable outfit, he can only benefit from that. Age 27, in the prime of his career, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him in the top two or three averaging forwards this year, with a 115 average.
Read his name earlier in the thread but the lack of love for Dale Thomas surprises me. He is only in 1.42% of teams which shows no one has forgiven him from last year.
From all reports he is fit and firing which is a far cry to where he was this time last year and I can't see why he wont play as a pure mid for Carlton in 2015. Unlike a lot of other mid pricers Daisy has a history of scoring on his side. Prior to last year and 2013 (where he only played 5 games for an average of 79.6 and if you take out a game where he scored 24 and his average jumps to 93.5), Daisy averaged 94.1 in 2010, 109.3 in 2011 and 96 in 2012.
At the moment Daisy is sitting at F4 in my team and I can't see this changing. At 400k and with a history of scoring, a spot in the midfield spot and a full preseason under his belt, I believe Daisy is a bargain with tremendous upside.
From all reports he is fit and firing which is a far cry to where he was this time last year and I can't see why he wont play as a pure mid for Carlton in 2015. Unlike a lot of other mid pricers Daisy has a history of scoring on his side. Prior to last year and 2013 (where he only played 5 games for an average of 79.6 and if you take out a game where he scored 24 and his average jumps to 93.5), Daisy averaged 94.1 in 2010, 109.3 in 2011 and 96 in 2012.
At the moment Daisy is sitting at F4 in my team and I can't see this changing. At 400k and with a history of scoring, a spot in the midfield spot and a full preseason under his belt, I believe Daisy is a bargain with tremendous upside.
Is everyone steering away from Robbie Gray purely because of price? I expect he'll be a positive POD for anyone willing to risk starting him at that price.
I'm a little surprised that BJ is taking all the attention and that Buddy and Gray have become PODs. What are we expecting BJ to do other than average 102-105 again? I know that's a decent return for a forward but as he turns 30 this year, $ for $ I would have thought Buddy is the better starting pick of the two.
I'm a little surprised that BJ is taking all the attention and that Buddy and Gray have become PODs. What are we expecting BJ to do other than average 102-105 again? I know that's a decent return for a forward but as he turns 30 this year, $ for $ I would have thought Buddy is the better starting pick of the two.
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Yeah i get what you mean. He was like that a bit last with with both hot and cold streaks. Coming into his fifth season, hopefully he can get that consistency.
Thanks mate. If you put it like that I dont think he will be top 10..but if everything goes well im hoping he is not too far away.
Great info regarding Buddy. Probably my only selection (non-selection) based on my heart..being a Hawks man I just cant cheer for him to play well!
Haha sorry Oz! Everybody please unread my original post so Oz and I are the only ones who have him!
Thanks mate. If you put it like that I dont think he will be top 10..but if everything goes well im hoping he is not too far away.
Great info regarding Buddy. Probably my only selection (non-selection) based on my heart..being a Hawks man I just cant cheer for him to play well!
Haha sorry Oz! Everybody please unread my original post so Oz and I are the only ones who have him!
I'm liking a couple of Saints in DEF this year. May go with one, both or neither depending on pre-season injury news and NAB form. And no, it's not Newnes!
Sam Fisher only played from round 17 onwards and scored a 92.1 average with a Standard Deviation of 17.5 (to put it in context, Mr Consistent Enright's STDEV was 18.5 in 2014 and 15.1 in 2013). He's also priced at an 82 average for this season due to only playing 7 games last year. If the noise coming out of the Saints is that Fisher is having an uninterrupted pre-season then i might find a way to squeeze Fisher in.
Shane Savage is one from left field. Averaged a dismal 40 from round 1-7 and then found himself out of the team (injury or form? Can't remember.. Maybe a Saints regular can shed some light?) until round 14 when he slotted into the HB line and averaged 90.9 from round 14 to 21 including two stinkers of 46 and 48 in the last 2 rounds of the year. It's these low-end scores that have me concerned, along with his awkward price of $371K, but if he can lock down a spot in St Kilda's 22, more specifically on the HB line, i'll be thinking long and hard.
Sam Fisher only played from round 17 onwards and scored a 92.1 average with a Standard Deviation of 17.5 (to put it in context, Mr Consistent Enright's STDEV was 18.5 in 2014 and 15.1 in 2013). He's also priced at an 82 average for this season due to only playing 7 games last year. If the noise coming out of the Saints is that Fisher is having an uninterrupted pre-season then i might find a way to squeeze Fisher in.
Shane Savage is one from left field. Averaged a dismal 40 from round 1-7 and then found himself out of the team (injury or form? Can't remember.. Maybe a Saints regular can shed some light?) until round 14 when he slotted into the HB line and averaged 90.9 from round 14 to 21 including two stinkers of 46 and 48 in the last 2 rounds of the year. It's these low-end scores that have me concerned, along with his awkward price of $371K, but if he can lock down a spot in St Kilda's 22, more specifically on the HB line, i'll be thinking long and hard.
This is why I am in fact starting him. I have no doubt he will miss games but by starting him it means you get all of the games he does play throughout the entire season. If you were to trade him in during the season then his percentage of games played for your team would likely be less. I'd say he would play 7-8 games in a row from round 1 then potentially have a couple of rests from then on.
You could of course go without Buddy for the whole season but I'm not prepared to miss out on his consistently high ceiling and want him in my team.
You could of course go without Buddy for the whole season but I'm not prepared to miss out on his consistently high ceiling and want him in my team.