2015: Premium Rucks

[OzRulesFootball]

Remember for some odd reason the stats in Prospectus still did not make full sense. Maybe there was something like minus one for hit out to disadvantage failed to be mentioned. Keeping my mind open to that being a case. We know hit out to advantage is 5 points and anything neutral result of ruck contest is clearing nothing. After that I am simply watching the stats in season openers to get a better feel what will actually happen. With the doubt that exist I cannot see myself paying full price for any ruck at this stage.

 

[IDIG]

Not sure if this has been posted but

Fantasy Freako ‏@FantasyFreako
Top 5 rucks for hit-to-adv % since 2012 (min 25 gms)
- Hampson (32.2%)
- Jacobs (31.9%)
- Maric (28.5%)
- Goldy (28.3%)
- NicNat (27.5%)

 

[OzRulesFootball]

Not sure if this has been posted but

Probably has. Remember a few of us already mentioned Hampson hit out to advantage percentage higher than most. Pity he won't get enough games to make use of. However if Maric goes down, look out....

 

[Jurn Stern]

Remember for some odd reason the stats in Prospectus still did not make full sense. Maybe there was something like minus one for hit out to disadvantage failed to be mentioned. Keeping my mind open to that being a case. We know hit out to advantage is 5 points and anything neutral result of ruck contest is clearing nothing. After that I am simply watching the stats in season openers to get a better feel what will actually happen. With the doubt that exist I cannot see myself paying full price for any ruck at this stage.

The thing that everyone seems to be miscalculating is that the scores for 'gather from hitout' have dropped from 4 to 2. If Jacobs takes the ball out of the ruck or hits it then mobs it up, then he gets the addition 2 points from 'hitout to adv' but loses 2 points from 'gather from hitout'. This is where I am seeing the score differences.

 

[OzRulesFootball]

The thing that everyone seems to be miscalculating is that the scores for 'gather from hitout' have dropped from 4 to 2. If Jacobs takes the ball out of the ruck or hits it then mobs it up, then he gets the addition 2 points from 'hitout to adv' but loses 2 points from 'gather from hitout'. This is where I am seeing the score differences.

Does anyone have any access to gathers from hit outs to account for that type of value?
Would be interesting if we could confirm that exact amount and if it explains all the differences in averages listed in Prospectus under their changes to CD points ranking system.

 

[anfa18]

The thing that everyone seems to be miscalculating is that the scores for 'gather from hitout' have dropped from 4 to 2. If Jacobs takes the ball out of the ruck or hits it then mobs it up, then he gets the addition 2 points from 'hitout to adv' but loses 2 points from 'gather from hitout'. This is where I am seeing the score differences.

Who wold this hurt the most? Nic Nat with his tap then gather maybe?

 

[Jurn Stern]

Does anyone have any access to gathers from hit outs to account for that type of value?
Would be interesting if we could confirm that exact amount and if it explains all the differences in averages listed in Prospectus under their changes to CD points ranking system.

'Gathers from hitouts' come from contested possessions. I recall seeing that Championship data generally deem them as loose ball gets, and I think this would be attributed to a portion of a ruckman clearances and a portion or contested possesions. Most good ruckman have approximately 3 clearances, and 7 contested possessions. So if only 1 clearance and 1 of those contested possessions game directly from the ruck contest, the ruckman stands to lose the 4 points the gained from the hitouts being to advantage.

I hope that made sense, but it seems to me like the only way to explain this. We have to remember that the changes to the ruck rules are one of the scoring changes made this year. The other changes 'game on the line multiplier' (down from x4 limit, to x2 limit) and 'gathers from hitouts' also effect ruckman.

 

[Zimmer]

Wow that changes everything for me. I've been thinking this whole time that -points was confirmed, in turn making all rucks overpriced (more than they already are) but if the gap between their starting price and average req'd is not as great as first thought, that probably puts the 500ker's back in front for mine... with the trades we save that we always seem to run out of in mind.

I reckon you're right. I burned 3 or 4 trades with the ruck debacle last year. I'm getting closer to the point where I even go all out and pick Jacobs from the start, rather than trying to negotiate 1. scoring changes effect on players that didn't play much of last year and or 2. are midpriced precisely because they are injury prone.

Jacobs is the only player who, given the scoring changes is projected to maintain his average. Even if it effects him and he drops in price, at least (hopefully) I haven't had to use any trades to upgrade. Biggest lesson from last year - keep the risks to a minimum. With some irony, it might be the only line I'm willing to pay overs for, at least for 1 of the 3 positions.

 

[Hondo]

Yeah 100% gut feel.

But for me, it would be play all 3 with Giles spending most of his time in the ruck, TBC deep forward and JD high. Not sure where Carlisle fits in that equation though?

OK, thanks for that

I know you can't know for sure but I asked because on the "best 22" thread on Essendon's board on BF the consensus seems to be TBC no 1 ruck and Giles the insurance policy.

We just have to wait and see. TBC as number 1 ruck is very attractive regardless of DPP. Sharing the ruck or playing up forward, not so attractive.

 

[OzRulesFootball]

Not an Essendon supporter but can't imagine for the life of me that anything other than Bellchambers clear number one ruck with Ryder gone is what Essendon staff would plan. Giles would simply be there for back up and helping up forward to the likes of Carlisle, Daniher and the third young tall Ambrose. With Hurley also a bit of a swing man cannot see Bellchambers spending time down there as his primary role. Would not make sense to me. Think it will be Bellchambers 70% ruck and Giles plays most games and he assist down forward and goes to ruck when Bellchambers needs a chop out. If Bellchambers is fully fit, comes on strong and finds his best form Giles may end up playing VFL a lot. Daniher and Carlisle looked groom to be the main key forwards with Ambrose helping out. I'd be amazed if they actually got Giles as the plan to be their main ruck. I think he simply is insurance which is fair enough considering Bellchambers struggled with his body last season and you have to have some back up.
Won't be touching either myself. Flirted with Bellchambers the first few times I looked at the new player positions in December but come to my senses and realized I would be nuts to go there again with him. Just too risky to backfire. ASADA stuff in the background too so plenty can go wrong. Once bitten twice shy with him.

 

[Hondo]

At $300k though for a number one ruck it seems attractive with good upside potential for the obvious injury risk. What would we expect a number one ruck to average as a rule as a minimum? 85-90?

 

[OzRulesFootball]

At $300k though for a number one ruck it seems attractive with good upside potential for the obvious injury risk. What would we expect a number one ruck to average as a rule as a minimum? 85-90?

80 previously for any clubs number one ruck but with new CD scoring system , probably drop that back to 72 as base average for standard no 1 ruck. The elite over 90ppg I am expecting as the new way it likely to work. Be lucky to find a ruck average 100 this year I think. Jacobs the obvious one but he is already priced for something higher.

In SC you probably wanted 110 and 95 between your two rucks as something to be satisfied with last year. Many of us had Jacobs and Sandi so was a little better but I think this season if you can get 95 average from your best ruck you got to be happy with it. How much you pay is the real dilemma and how many trades you use for whole ruck division. But we need two rucks on field, not one, so it is going to be tricky how to approach the the whole thing.

The only good thing is we are all in same boat with this new ruck challenge.

 

[Bomber18]

Remember for some odd reason the stats in Prospectus still did not make full sense. Maybe there was something like minus one for hit out to disadvantage failed to be mentioned. Keeping my mind open to that being a case. We know hit out to advantage is 5 points and anything neutral result of ruck contest is clearing nothing. After that I am simply watching the stats in season openers to get a better feel what will actually happen. With the doubt that exist I cannot see myself paying full price for any ruck at this stage.

Think you may be right with this one! The much lower adjusted scores for Jacobs, Mummy might be due to losing points for hitouts to disadvantage!

 

[Bomber18]

Just another side note, won't the changes make the more mobile ruckman who can get possessions in addition to hitouts more relevant?

Stefan Martin might actually be the best option still?!

 

[Jurn Stern]

Just another side note, won't the changes make the more mobile ruckman who can get possessions in addition to hitouts more relevant?

Stefan Martin might actually be the best option still?!

He may be, I think the best thing to do with all rucks is wait and see.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Just another side note, won't the changes make the more mobile ruckman who can get possessions in addition to hitouts more relevant?

Stefan Martin might actually be the best option still?!

With Berger back and expected to be no.1 ruck, Stefan is expected to play more forward robbing him of some of those possession points he picked up last year.

 

[Brettthejett]

With Berger back and expected to be no.1 ruck, Stefan is expected to play more forward robbing him of some of those possession points he picked up last year.

Best case scenario is Berger plays 6 games then gets injured averaging 100 then by that point stef has dropped 100-150 k then jump on him if luenberger is out for an extended period of time

 

[Hondo]

Ozrules, I'll stand corrected but at this stage I can't accept the new ruck rules make a number one ruck no better than a Harry Cunningham type. I reckon you are low balling the starting point of 80.

We've seen rookie rucks belt out 90+ like Smith, Nicholls and Giles. Geez stef Martin goes from scrub to stud when handed that number one role.

Maybe Rowsus has some historical stats on "number one rucks" to help us (or me) out.

I feel a starting point for a fit TBC in a number one ruck role is closer to the 90s before adjustments for new scoring system. I'd say people are expecting 95 out if Titch yet he's $100k more.

 

[Manikato1]

I have had Berger in my ruck selections from the start but now am looking to give him the boot.

He has only ave over 100 once in 2011 which I would consider his break out year. And he probably could have ave higher given he spent some time up forward early in the season and did not score much. His second half of that year was great and included a 172 against Gold Coast. His next best result is 2013 when he ave 97. He scored 10 tons that season but the best was 121 and 5 of those tons were against Melb x 2, Gold Coast, St Kilda and the Bulldogs. He also had 7 scores of 85 or less and you can also toss in an 86 and an 88 on top of that. I am not entirely convinced by that scoring.

And the early draw for Brisbane while not a horror draw does not have many easy games either. Now toss in the obvious injury issue with 3 seasons lost out of the last 6. And note that in each of the 3 “lost” seasons his injury has always happened within the first 4 rounds. Doesn't mean it will be the same this year but then again...

I know he is not a keeper, he is a stepping stone but I am still not convinced. This is not like Sandi last year. He was a clear injury risk but he already had a solid history of consistent big scores when he was fit. So you knew what you would get and the reward justified the risk.

The problem is I have no idea yet who should replace him. Not a Kreuzer fan and not with Malty talking about playing him forward. Having already built much of the team with Berger as R 2 it is not easy to find another 150+k to fund a high end replacement without major surgery.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

^^ Goldy. Check out his 2nd half season last year after he recovered for his shoulder injury. He scored like a premo mid and my view is that he is under priced and any reduction from the new ruck rules will be mitigated by this value pricing. He's a keeper and I don't think you lose much, if anything, buy using him to replace one of your lesser premos from another line.
I keep trying different structures without him, but my team always looks better with him in.