Hey BS,
yes, I think it is too risky. Break up the possible outcomes:
Both turn out to be a bad or disappointing picks.
One is a good pick, the other bad or disappointing.
Both make dollars and points, but probably need upgrading anyway.
When you look at those 3 options, it seems the first one is head and shoulders above the other two as the most likely outcome. Remember the golden rule with Midpriced selections, they either have to make decent dollars and points, or make Keeper status, to be considered a good selection. Individually they look risky, together, it seems you are destined for one of them to be a bad pick, and where that problem compounds is, it is in your Ruck line. Anywhere else you downgrade your bad pick to a Rookie, and move on. You probably can't do that here, so it means finding cash to upgrade the mistake. That may not be easy to do, and wastes a perfectly good upgrade opportunity elsewhere.
Also, if one of them turns out to be a good pick, and the other one not so good, you are probably still behind on the deal. Unless the good pick goes completely nuts, and makes Keeper level, you generally need a better than 50% success rate on Midpricers to say the strategy worked. The cut off, depending on the level of of success, is more like you need a 60-70% strike rate to be happy with the decision.
Giles does not have a history of good scoring, and another Golden Rule is, mature age recruits don't have much room for improvement, and set their Expected Scoring Patterns in less games/seasons than other players. He had games last season that read: 44 HO's 11 poss 1 goal 73 SC, 42 HO's 7 poss 83 SC, 37 HO's 13 poss 1 goal 88 SC, most Rucks with those stats would be cruising up to and over 100, that means he is doing something wrong as his efforts aren't translating to points, and those were his best stats, not his average stats. It's hard to see where his improvement will come from, to suddenly start scoring 90+ as an average. If he scores less, from his starting price, he is a bad selection. 90-92 would only just put him in the winning side of the ledger.
My guesstimate of you being happy you started with a Giles/TBC combo would be somewhere around a 1-2% chance mark.
yes, I think it is too risky. Break up the possible outcomes:
Both turn out to be a bad or disappointing picks.
One is a good pick, the other bad or disappointing.
Both make dollars and points, but probably need upgrading anyway.
When you look at those 3 options, it seems the first one is head and shoulders above the other two as the most likely outcome. Remember the golden rule with Midpriced selections, they either have to make decent dollars and points, or make Keeper status, to be considered a good selection. Individually they look risky, together, it seems you are destined for one of them to be a bad pick, and where that problem compounds is, it is in your Ruck line. Anywhere else you downgrade your bad pick to a Rookie, and move on. You probably can't do that here, so it means finding cash to upgrade the mistake. That may not be easy to do, and wastes a perfectly good upgrade opportunity elsewhere.
Also, if one of them turns out to be a good pick, and the other one not so good, you are probably still behind on the deal. Unless the good pick goes completely nuts, and makes Keeper level, you generally need a better than 50% success rate on Midpricers to say the strategy worked. The cut off, depending on the level of of success, is more like you need a 60-70% strike rate to be happy with the decision.
Giles does not have a history of good scoring, and another Golden Rule is, mature age recruits don't have much room for improvement, and set their Expected Scoring Patterns in less games/seasons than other players. He had games last season that read: 44 HO's 11 poss 1 goal 73 SC, 42 HO's 7 poss 83 SC, 37 HO's 13 poss 1 goal 88 SC, most Rucks with those stats would be cruising up to and over 100, that means he is doing something wrong as his efforts aren't translating to points, and those were his best stats, not his average stats. It's hard to see where his improvement will come from, to suddenly start scoring 90+ as an average. If he scores less, from his starting price, he is a bad selection. 90-92 would only just put him in the winning side of the ledger.
My guesstimate of you being happy you started with a Giles/TBC combo would be somewhere around a 1-2% chance mark.
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