Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[happydays]

It's certainly within the realms of possibility, but seems unlikely.
Off the top of my head, I will say the chances that even one of them make it over 115, and play say 19 or more games in doing it (pretty pointless if they only play a handful of games!) would be somewhere around 25-30%.
This caused me to do some maths. Let's assume they all have an equal chance of doing it, and my gut feel is right (let's say 27.5% for calculation purposes).
For only 1 player to make it to 115+, and that being a 27.5% chance, then each individual player is either a:

9.2% chance of achieving it - .092 x .908^3 x 4 = 27.5% OR
47.5% chance of achieving it - .475 x .525^3 x 4 = 27.5%

Having done the math, I would say I was a little tough on them, but the 9.2% chance seems more realistic than the 47.5%.
At 9.2% the chances of all 4 achieving 115+ is 0.0072%
At 47.5% the chances of all 4 achieving 115+ is 5.1%

Realistically, I think individually they are around 16-18% to make it.
That makes it a 38.9% that only one makes it, and a 52.5% chance that one or more make it, but only a 0.08% chance that all 4 make it.

No matter how you line it up, it really seems unlikely all 4 will make it.

"and a 52.5% chance that one or more make it" ----> But likely that one makes it.

I think to win this whole thing you need to make one or two calculated starting calls and get one-big mover into premium/super-premium status right.
For me, hoping I can chose the right 530k and under player that breaks out into a 610k / 112ppg player...

 

[happydays]

Thoughts Rowus on Luke Shuey?
I think he has the potential to be a super-premium / next Juldd-like player...just have never found consistency.

 

[blue dreamer]

Haven't seen the doggies this year.

Without Libba do you think Wallis might be let off the taggers chain and can he score 100 ish if he is let off the chain?

Others feel free to answer too (especially doggies fans).

Was in my team early but too tricky a price and doubts on role.

Might have some extra cash now to upgrade a rookie if gazza is traded out so considering him again.

 

[sangkuriang]

Hi Rowsus. Hope you have had a sterling start to the new year.

Could you possibly run your eye over Yarran and McKenzie for me? Do you think Malthouse might use Yarran in a more attacking role? And can McKenzie break into the top 15 defenders? He was doing quite well until injury previously.

 

[PC]

Hi Rowsus. Apologies in advance if you have already answered this question

What are your thoughts on Parker for 2015? Can he take his average up another 5-10 points?

Cheers in advance!

 

[Hawk]

Hi Rowsus. Apologies in advance if you have already answered this question

What are your thoughts on Parker for 2015? Can he take his average up another 5-10 points?

Cheers in advance!

I'll be watching this response. I love the way Luke Parker goes about it. Goal kicking, tackling, contested player who seems to only get better and better. Can take a solid contested mark also. Dunno if I have the balls to start him at roughly 580k, when JPK is only 612k.

 

[PC]

I'll be watching this response. I love the way Luke Parker goes about it. Goal kicking, tackling, contested player who seems to only get better and better. Can take a solid contested mark also. Dunno if I have the balls to start him at roughly 580k, when JPK is only 612k.

Looked at his same age numbers versus Ablett, Selwood and JPK - very close or better in some areas!

 

[Darkie]

Hey Mike, thanks for the kind words.
The answer lies in the rules for picking your team.
1) Pick your 2 Captain selections.
2) Pick your Rucks, depending on Ruck strategy.
3) Fill your team with as many Rookies as you can, keeping a preference order in mind for them.
4) Use the left over money to start upgrading the least preferred Rookies until your cash runs out.

So the answer doesn't lie in a "Sloane vs Gray" type question, it lies more in a "Amon vs Lamb" type question. It's more important to get your Rookies right, and save corrective trades in the first 2 weeks, than to get "Sloane vs Gray" right. Both will probably end up in your team at some point, anyway.

Hi Rowsus - last time I saw these rules I wondered about something, so this time I will ask: I understand why captains are treated differently from other players, but why are rucks? Thanks again.

 

[siwel]

Hi Rowsus - last time I saw these rules I wondered about something, so this time I will ask: I understand why captains are treated differently from other players, but why are rucks? Thanks again.

Not sure if this is what you are asking but...
The rucks are very important as the difference between the No1 SC ruck and say No4 or No5 SC ruck can be very significant. Say the difference is 10 points, multiply that over the course of the season and this becomes some significant points. This is an issue as only two rucks are selected to play. Historically the difference between mids is often smaller and not as much of an issue there.
So for example using last years averages
Player A with No1 (Sauce 115 avg) and No4 SC (Sandi 111 avg) ranked rucks v Player B with No4 (Sandi 111 avg) and No5 (Goldy 107 avg) SC ranked rucks. Lets assume all played 22 games
Sauce 115 x 22 = 2530
Sandi 111 x 22 = 2442

v

Sandi 111 x 22 = 2442
Goldy 107 x 22 = 2354

Thats 200 point difference straight off and a Sandi Goldy ruck combo last year was prob above avg of what most people had so that 200 can easily increase to 300-400 points.

 

[MrMurdoch]

Haven't seen the doggies this year.

Without Libba do you think Wallis might be let off the taggers chain and can he score 100 ish if he is let off the chain?

Others feel free to answer too (especially doggies fans).

Was in my team early but too tricky a price and doubts on role.

Might have some extra cash now to upgrade a rookie if gazza is traded out so considering him again.

This should help

Hi Rowsus

I reallllllly like Mitch Wallis prospects as a mid price mid with Libba gone for the season, but I want to stay strict to my rule of going Guns and Rookies in the midfield. I've got Bontempelli in the forwards somewhat as a compromise but still very unsure of what to do. What are your thoughts on Wallis and Bontempelli as picks in their respective positions?

Hi MrM,
Wallis is an interesting one, as he is definitely a prospect for the in and under role left vacant by Libba. He seems to have been around longer than he has, but he has only played 54 games, coming into his 5th season, and will be 22.5 years old when the season starts. All pretty good break out territory stuff. I can't see him reacing Keeper level, but I've been surprised before. To be a useful Stepping stone type player, you have to believe he can average more than 90, and more likely in the 95+ area. This will allow his price to rise $100-$130k, while producing useful points, and facilitate an easier upgrade. It of course falls outside of GnR strategy zone, and should still be considered very risky, unless you are supremely confident. Keep in mind, you are comparing him to say $140k Rookie, that needs to average around 65/game to make $180k profit, and leave you $200k for upgrading elsewhere, with the price difference between Wallis and the Rookie. That $200k should bring about a 35-40/game increase in scoring, but only needs to produce 30/game for you still to be slightly ahead on both dollars and points.
I'm not as excited and as gunho about the Bont as a lot of people here. Yes, he an exciting AFL prospect, but he has played 1 season of 16 games, and is coming into his 2nd season. At $422k there is no wiggle room. We are setting high hopes on our Fwd's this season, and some are even saying F6 should be a 100/game player (some, but not me!). There's not many players that crack 100 in their 2nd season, but even less that were 192cm or taller. You probably need him to average 95 to be considered a success, and hold down F6. I'm just not confident enough he can do it. He's not for me.

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus I am interested in any thoughts that you have on Blicavs? I am not keen on paying big $$ for any ruckmen to start the season off but there are slim pickings under 400K.

He has been solid in NAB and if he has a role of tall defender that finishes the game in the ruck (after the main ruckmen is subbed out) his TOG should increase a fair amount.

Mudflap I guess we have to explore all avenues in the Ruck (and Def) area this season.
Blicavs averaged 65% TOG up until Rnd 10 last season, and 85% after it. (season average 77%)
Up until Rnd 10 he averaged 53.8 SC/game and 82.6 SC/100%TOG
After Rnd 10 he averaged 80.8 SC/game and 94.9 SC/100%TOG
The biggest problem I see is, that tall Defs aren't great scorers in SC, so you are relying on that say 30 minutes/game he spends in the Ruck to put the cream on his SC cake. I would think if they did it as a hard and fast plan, he could possibly average 90, and boost his price around $80k. I think it's more likely he scores somewhere in the 80-85 range at best, and peaks his price at about +$40-$50k.
It's not the worst plan to follow while you sort out which Ruck you want, but it doesn't look like the best course of action either.

 

[Rowsus]

thanks for the reply in regards to mumford much appreciated

would you start with stef martin?

i know we have seen only 1 proper game with him and luenberger but i just cant see how injury aside martin isnt a top 2 ruckman this year

could possibly be better with luenberger

A couple points here. You touch on the first with your "injury aside". I'm not sure you shouldn't factor that in, given he does he have an injury history. Secondly, it's a big jump to say, that a player that filled a vacancy for a limited period in a season, will continue to score at the same level in future seasons, or even the next season. His history says it won't happen, and his price says it would seem to be a near crazy risk.
Prior to last season he had recorded 8 100+ scores in 62 games. 6 of those came in a 9 game "hot streak" in 2011, so outside of the hot streak he has recorded 2 100+ scores in 53 games prior to last season. That gives him 2 hot streaks in his career, spaced 3 seasons apart. It would be brave at his $600k price to think he has turned a corner, and suddenly become the player he showed in the 2nd half of last season. It would seem more likely he will be somewhere between the 86/game of his best season prior to 2014, and last seasons 112/game. Still, if you believe he should be top 2, then more power to you. I'm sure he will be a huge POD against most of the top 1,000 teams!

 

[Rowsus]

Sorry for asking this question repeatedly. But lets say I start with either Stevens or Greenwood and one of them averages 108-110 prior to the byes(finishing with 105-108) and I upgrade one of them to Rockliff in round 12 for an extra 80-100k. Is that enough to justify this selection?

Given Steven is $50k less than Greenwood, let's work with him, as the cheaper the player is to start with, the better/safer the plan. His price would reach somewhere around $540k, and it would seem an expectation of a $80-$100k upgrade to Rocky doesn't seem far off the track, price-wise.
Given the info provided, I would say yes, that is a perfectly justifiable plan. It meets the "Stepping Stone" guidlines perfectly. The Stepping Stone player needs to score at useful points/game AND make dollars.

Also with the new scoring changes, it seems like there are a lot of points taken from Rucks and Mids without any addition elsewhere. So, where do these points go? Do they get allocated relatively evenly during the scaling process?

They just go into the slush pond of points, and could be another reason why the loading factor has been cut down this season, as there could be more points in the loading pool. If you've ever watched the live scores in a game, you will see some players scores rising latish in the game, even if they've been subbed off. It's because the total points in the game might be heading towards something like 3050 or 3100, and they start distributing the short fall before the end of the game. This is the only thing that explains a subbed off players score slowly creeping up as the game progresses. Pendlebury famously crept up from mid 60's when subbed off, to low 90's by the games end, and before the final figures were released. These missing points you talk of just get put into that pool to be distributed before, and during, the final loading.

 

[Rowsus]

"and a 52.5% chance that one or more make it" ----> But likely that one makes it.

I think to win this whole thing you need to make one or two calculated starting calls and get one-big mover into premium/super-premium status right.
For me, hoping I can chose the right 530k and under player that breaks out into a 610k / 112ppg player...

The problem is, that's 52.5% that at least one makes it, from 4 possibilities. Generally you need a better than 50% strike rate with Midpriced selections to consider it a worthwhile strategy.

 

[Rowsus]

Thoughts Rowus on Luke Shuey?
I think he has the potential to be a super-premium / next Juldd-like player...just have never found consistency.

I've never really considered him Judd-like, but I might be missing something. People have been predicting the breakout of Shuey since his 2nd season, and he hasn't achieved it yet. I think "Super-Premium" is setting too high of an expectation on him, and if you take him, you should be happy if he can go 110+. He's pretty much 25, and has played 86 games, statistically that means this is his last chance to breakout. A lot might depend on the form/fitness of NicNat and Lycett, as his best season coincided with NicNat and Cox blitzing. He managed 7 120+ scores that season, but only 4 last year. I haven't seen anything that gives me confidence he can go 110+, but if you have I suggest you slot him in.

 

[Rowsus]

Haven't seen the doggies this year.

Without Libba do you think Wallis might be let off the taggers chain and can he score 100 ish if he is let off the chain?

Others feel free to answer too (especially doggies fans).

Was in my team early but too tricky a price and doubts on role.

Might have some extra cash now to upgrade a rookie if gazza is traded out so considering him again.

You need him to reach close to that 100/game mark if you take him, I'm just not confident he can/will do it. I'm also not confident he won't slowly slip back into that negative/tagging type role. I will be surprised if he doesn't make some dollars, but I will also be surprised if he doesn't throw in a bad score or two at some stage, and give most of it back. Too risky for me.

 

[Mudflap]

Mudflap I guess we have to explore all avenues in the Ruck (and Def) area this season.
Blicavs averaged 65% TOG up until Rnd 10 last season, and 85% after it. (season average 77%)
Up until Rnd 10 he averaged 53.8 SC/game and 82.6 SC/100%TOG
After Rnd 10 he averaged 80.8 SC/game and 94.9 SC/100%TOG
The biggest problem I see is, that tall Defs aren't great scorers in SC, so you are relying on that say 30 minutes/game he spends in the Ruck to put the cream on his SC cake. I would think if they did it as a hard and fast plan, he could possibly average 90, and boost his price around $80k. I think it's more likely he scores somewhere in the 80-85 range at best, and peaks his price at about +$40-$50k.
It's not the worst plan to follow while you sort out which Ruck you want, but it doesn't look like the best course of action either.

Great insight Rowsus much appreciated. The highlighted info is gold.


If I could get 80 - 85 from Blicavs for 6 weeks I would just about take it. By that stage the ruck situation should be clearer

 

[Prochard]

Err these numbers are bothering me. If 108-110 averages equate to around 540k at round 12. Does that mean if I start with griffen and he averages that much would mean that he will only go up by 5-10k?

 

[Bobbie]

Given Steven is $50k less than Greenwood, let's work with him, as the cheaper the player is to start with, the better/safer the plan. His price would reach somewhere around $540k, and it would seem an expectation of a $80-$100k upgrade to Rocky doesn't seem far off the track, price-wise.
Given the info provided, I would say yes, that is a perfectly justifiable plan. It meets the "Stepping Stone" guidlines perfectly. The Stepping Stone player needs to score at useful points/game AND make dollars.

So do you think Swallow meets the stepping stone criteria?

 

[Bobbie]

You need him to reach close to that 100/game mark if you take him, I'm just not confident he can/will do it. I'm also not confident he won't slowly slip back into that negative/tagging type role. I will be surprised if he doesn't make some dollars, but I will also be surprised if he doesn't throw in a bad score or two at some stage, and give most of it back. Too risky for me.

I believe Wallis is an ideal candidate to fill Libba's position. He has a similar style of play and was apparently given tagging duties last year to build the defensive side of his game. However, I have no idea if the coach shares my opinion! Wallis has a lot to prove this year so I think he will step up but how much that increases his SC scoring is anyone's guess. If I had the cash I think I would possibly take a punt on him but I wouldn't be doing it at the expense of the rest of my structure. I have selected him in Fantasy but that game allows you take a few more risks given the unlimited trades!