Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Slammer]

Hey Rowsus,

Still throwing around my team with and without Rocky/Ablett...aaaaaaarrrghh!!!!!!!!!!!!
Just wondering what your thought are on Daniel Rich as an M5. I am seriously considering him as he believe he has alot of upside.
With the addition of Beams and Christenson I can see him getting more time running off half back. I would have thought that most of the attention will be on Beams and Rocky.
He used to cop a hard tag and play through the middle at times prior to his injury but with more spread of midfielders present I think he is the forgotten one. Looked ok NAB Challenge and we all know what a damaging player he can be with his left boot. My only concern is what happens when Hanley returns.
I tossing up between Rich and Wells.
Any thoughts or comments are much appreciated

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

Still throwing around my team with and without Rocky/Ablett...aaaaaaarrrghh!!!!!!!!!!!!
Just wondering what your thought are on Daniel Rich as an M5. I am seriously considering him as he believe he has alot of upside.
With the addition of Beams and Christenson I can see him getting more time running off half back. I would have thought that most of the attention will be on Beams and Rocky.
He used to cop a hard tag and play through the middle at times prior to his injury but with more spread of midfielders present I think he is the forgotten one. Looked ok NAB Challenge and we all know what a damaging player he can be with his left boot. My only concern is what happens when Hanley returns.
I tossing up between Rich and Wells.
Any thoughts or comments are much appreciated

Hey Slammer,
I'm not a fan of either Rich or Wells. Rich will in all likelihood get pushed more towards a halfback type role, and that can be SC poison for Mid scores. It's one of the reasons I believe Cotchin's score dropped off, as he was getting too many possessions in the back half of the ground. I would want to think they'd average 100 before I took them, and if they do, they potentially become an M8 trap. You know, that player you always intended to upgrade, but there were always more pressing needs that your trades were needed for. Next thing you know, you've got Round 16 with an M8 averaging 97, and you've given up a lot of points to the teams around you. While those teams are building strong bench cover, you are still trying to upgrade your M8.
Only take either if you are very strongly confident they can get close to 100, and you are locked in to upgrading them when they look to have peaked in price. I think they both fall short.
If I was looking for a Mid Stepping Stone type player, I would want a cheaper one. This helps facilitate the part about a Stepping Stone must make dollars, as well as points, and is less likely to lead to a M8 trap situation.

 

[Slammer]

Hey Slammer,
I'm not a fan of either Rich or Wells. Rich will in all likelihood get pushed more towards a halfback type role, and that can be SC poison for Mid scores. It's one of the reasons I believe Cotchin's score dropped off, as he was getting too many possessions in the back half of the ground. I would want to think they'd average 100 before I took them, and if they do, they potentially become an M8 trap. You know, that player you always intended to upgrade, but there were always more pressing needs that your trades were needed for. Next thing you know, you've got Round 16 with an M8 averaging 97, and you've given up a lot of points to the teams around you. While those teams are building strong bench cover, you are still trying to upgrade your M8.
Only take either if you are very strongly confident they can get close to 100, and you are locked in to upgrading them when they look to have peaked in price. I think they both fall short.
If I was looking for a Mid Stepping Stone type player, I would want a cheaper one. This helps facilitate the part about a Stepping Stone must make dollars, as well as points, and is less likely to lead to a M8 trap situation.

Very valid point mate...Much appreciated. Think I might stay away and try again...
Its all tied into my Ruck dilemma aswell. originally had Leunberger like everyone else but because of his poor form inthe NAB and martin stealing his points I am trying to get Nic Nac back in my team

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Hey Rowsus,
Just following on from your comments above about M8 traps and mid priced stepping stones, I have a question for you about L Neale. I have read many of your earlier comments in this thread about Neale potentially being a good value pick this year and that he could potentially average around 105 - 108. On this basis I am considering taking him at M5 however I'm concerned that he may fall short of 108 (as it is a big jump from previous performance) and end up at 100 or less.
I realize you have changed you view on him a few times, but I would be interested to know whether you think he runs the risk of becoming an M8 trap and therefore I should try to raise the funds to upgrade him to a stronger premium or whether he has a reasonably good chance of achieving close to 108. Thanks.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,
Just following on from your comments above about M8 traps and mid priced stepping stones, I have a question for you about L Neale. I have read many of your earlier comments in this thread about Neale potentially being a good value pick this year and that he could potentially average around 105 - 108. On this basis I am considering taking him at M5 however I'm concerned that he may fall short of 108 (as it is a big jump from previous performance) and end up at 100 or less.
I realize you have changed you view on him a few times, but I would be interested to know whether you think he runs the risk of becoming an M8 trap and therefore I should try to raise the funds to upgrade him to a stronger premium or whether he has a reasonably good chance of achieving close to 108. Thanks.

Hey RB,
It's funny isn't it? When I had both Ablett and Rocky in my team last week, I happily had Neale sitting at M5. Now I have only one of Ablett/Rocky, and I'm running a 4-0-7 Mid, with no Neale. The Ablett/Rocky dilemma has completely changed my team (apart from my Def line). He's the player I most regret losing from all this fallout, and I might still find a way to smuggle him in.
He could definitely turn out to be a M8 trap. I just think if you take a player in that Price range, you just have to brutal, and if they're not producing to the level you hoped, trade them out without making "maybe next week" type excuses.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Hey RB,
It's funny isn't it? When I had both Ablett and Rocky in my team last week, I happily had Neale sitting at M5. Now I have only one of Ablett/Rocky, and I'm running a 4-0-7 Mid, with no Neale. The Ablett/Rocky dilemma has completely changed my team (apart from my Def line). He's the player I most regret losing from all this fallout, and I might still find a way to smuggle him in.
He could definitely turn out to be a M8 trap. I just think if you take a player in that Price range, you just have to brutal, and if they're not producing to the level you hoped, trade them out without making "maybe next week" type excuses.

Wow, both Ablett and Rocky gonski! That's a big change.
I have enough cash to get me from Neale to Wines. Which would you choose?

 

[TheJuventino27]

Wow, both Ablett and Rocky gonski! That's a big change.
I have enough cash to get me from Neale to Wines. Which would you choose?

Get Wines in ASAP.

 

[Brettthejett]

Hey Row,

Can i get your thoughts on McEvoy. He's a enticing price if he can stay fit and play all year can see an av of 100-110 this year.

Thank BTJ

 

[brad182]

Hey Rowsus,
Going with a Pendles, Fyfe, Selwood, Kennedy midfield but am looking at getting another premium midfielder that's a genuine POD as my M5.
I was really keen on Lewis but am thinking more towards maybe Boak. In for a big year I think, can pump out huge scores it's just his consistency I'm worried about (can score the odd 90). Lewis is also due for another big year and love that he goes 3rd man up a few times a game. Guess it's a bonus. So yeah, it's one of those 2, just doing my head in bad!

 

[Manikato1]

It's not the worst plan to follow while you sort out which Ruck you want, but it doesn't look like the best course of action either.

Hi Rowsus

I read with interest your reply last week to Mudflap who was querying you about Blicavs as a ruck option. Like Mudflap I am considering him as a stepping stone. I actually like the Nicnat/Goldstein combo but my team structure elsewhere means I cannot afford that to start off so Nicnat/Blicavs fits for now.

I am banking on getting Goldy after 5 or 6 rounds because I think he is more often than not a bad starter and I am looking for a 100k drop in price. I am interested on your thoughts about is early season form.

In 3 of the last 4 seasons he has failed to score a ton in his first 3 games. The exception is in 2013 when he went bang and pulled out 3 tons in a row. In 2014 his price dropped after 6 rds from 612 to 488k. In 2013, his best year, it increased from 497 to 529k a modest rise. In 2012 it dropped from 613 to 458k. In 2011 he had a big rise of 120k but that was his break out year and he started at 320k based on 66 pt ave the previous season.

In the first 6 games of the season this year he will line up against 6 out of the best 10 rucks by 2014 averages (excluding himself) eg Jacobs ranked 1 in rd 1, Martin ranked 3 in rd 2 and Ryder/Lobbe in rd 3 who are ranked 6 and 7 respectively.

What do you think of a 100k drop after 6 rounds? A real possibility?

 

[Rowsus]

Wow, both Ablett and Rocky gonski! That's a big change.
I have enough cash to get me from Neale to Wines. Which would you choose?

Get Wines in ASAP.

No, no, I will still have one of Ablett/Rocky, I'm just not sure which one yet.
This will sound strange I guess. If I was choosing between Neale and Wines, I would probably take Neale. I admit it is the type of decision that makes me a questionable SC player. I think percentage wise, as in likelihood of success, Wines is a better pick, but I feel like I'm a little "invested" in Neale. I started to get excited about him late last season, and did a lot of research on him, so if I had room, I'd take him.
If I was giving my mum advice on her SC (she doesn't play by the way), I would point out that Neale is a much riskier pick, and she would probably be safer taking Wines.
I hope that all makes sense.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Row,

Can i get your thoughts on McEvoy. He's a enticing price if he can stay fit and play all year can see an av of 100-110 this year.

Thank BTJ

Hey Btj,
I don't rate him. I think he will playing more as a Fwd/Ruck, than a Ruck/Fwd. With Gunston and Roughie already there, I don't think he will score enough points to be a good selection. Certainly not on his Ruck work, which I think is well below both Ceglar and Hale's.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,
Going with a Pendles, Fyfe, Selwood, Kennedy midfield but am looking at getting another premium midfielder that's a genuine POD as my M5.
I was really keen on Lewis but am thinking more towards maybe Boak. In for a big year I think, can pump out huge scores it's just his consistency I'm worried about (can score the odd 90). Lewis is also due for another big year and love that he goes 3rd man up a few times a game. Guess it's a bonus. So yeah, it's one of those 2, just doing my head in bad!

Hey brad182,
I don't like either of them.
Lewis looks like a spike year. Do the thing with experienced players, where you drop out one season, and see how their numbers look with him, and you get: 62, 75, 94, 80, 92. 89, 91, 96, 97 - hardly inspiring stuff. When you couple that with the general poor SC performance of Haw Mids in the past few seasons, and he looks too big of a risk to me.
Boak has had his chances at 110+, but his only 2 100+ seasons are 107 and 106.
If someone put a gun to my head, and made me choose, I'm really not sure which way I'd go. Boak is younger, and could still get there, maybe. Lewis has a higher recent history. I'll say Boak, just.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus

I read with interest your reply last week to Mudflap who was querying you about Blicavs as a ruck option. Like Mudflap I am considering him as a stepping stone. I actually like the Nicnat/Goldstein combo but my team structure elsewhere means I cannot afford that to start off so Nicnat/Blicavs fits for now.

I am banking on getting Goldy after 5 or 6 rounds because I think he is more often than not a bad starter and I am looking for a 100k drop in price. I am interested on your thoughts about is early season form.

In 3 of the last 4 seasons he has failed to score a ton in his first 3 games. The exception is in 2013 when he went bang and pulled out 3 tons in a row. In 2014 his price dropped after 6 rds from 612 to 488k. In 2013, his best year, it increased from 497 to 529k a modest rise. In 2012 it dropped from 613 to 458k. In 2011 he had a big rise of 120k but that was his break out year and he started at 320k based on 66 pt ave the previous season.

In the first 6 games of the season this year he will line up against 6 out of the best 10 rucks by 2014 averages (excluding himself) eg Jacobs ranked 1 in rd 1, Martin ranked 3 in rd 2 and Ryder/Lobbe in rd 3 who are ranked 6 and 7 respectively.

What do you think of a 100k drop after 6 rounds? A real possibility?

Hi Man,
I'm not sure I'd read too much into Goldy's slow starts. I'm pretty sure he was playing with one arm early last season, and that explains his poor start.
To drop $100k after 6 rounds, he'd need to average around 87/game in the first 6 Rounds. To be honest, I think he will do better than that. Even if you think he can average 95, he will only drop $72k. As to his early draw, I wouldn't judge it on what his opponents score, but what the opposition generally give up to their opposition Rucks. You can see games where both Rucks score 130+, and games where the best Ruck in the game struggles to 100. 2 of the teams that give up decent Ruck scores are Brisbane and Geelong, and he plays them in Rounds 2 and 4.

 

[Slammer]

Hey Rowsus,

Just interested to know what your structures are? I am currently running a 4 1 5 in mids and 3 0 5 in fwd line.
I have been trying to get a 4 0 4 in my fwd line but in order to do so I am finding I have to sacrifice mids or the Rucks quite significantly. Especially whilst having one of Rocky/Ablett and one higher priced rookie.
I am also kind of happy with my backs so really do not want to touch them.

cheers

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

Just interested to know what your structures are? I am currently running a 4 1 5 in mids and 3 0 5 in fwd line.
I have been trying to get a 4 0 4 in my fwd line but in order to do so I am finding I have to sacrifice mids or the Rucks quite significantly. Especially whilst having one of Rocky/Ablett and one higher priced rookie.
I am also kind of happy with my backs so really do not want to touch them.

cheers

Hey Slammer,
what constitutes a Midpricer, and a Keeper is different in peoples minds.
Looking at my current team, I rate it:
Def: 4-2-2 assuming Goodes is considered a Midpricer
Mid: 4-0-7
Ruc: 2-0-1
Fwd: 3-1-4 assuming Clark is a "Rookie"
I feel the same about my Def line, assuming Goodes gets a call up, and I don't want to fiddle with that either. Assuming selection goes the way I want, I pretty much have 25-27 players locked in now, which I'm happy about.

 

[Prochard]

Hey Rowsus, if Essendon top up players do actually get to play due to a majority of their players being suspended, does that mean we should only have 1 or a maximum of 2 round 12 premiums in each line?

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus, if Essendon top up players do actually get to play due to a majority of their players being suspended, does that mean we should only have 1 or a maximum of 2 round 12 premiums in each line?

Hey Pro,
I'm not sure what the Essendon top up players have got to do with the number of Rnd 12 Premiums you are selecting on any given line.
Is there something I'm missing?

 

[Ricky Bobby]

No, no, I will still have one of Ablett/Rocky, I'm just not sure which one yet.
This will sound strange I guess. If I was choosing between Neale and Wines, I would probably take Neale. I admit it is the type of decision that makes me a questionable SC player. I think percentage wise, as in likelihood of success, Wines is a better pick, but I feel like I'm a little "invested" in Neale. I started to get excited about him late last season, and did a lot of research on him, so if I had room, I'd take him.
If I was giving my mum advice on her SC (she doesn't play by the way), I would point out that Neale is a much riskier pick, and she would probably be safer taking Wines.
I hope that all makes sense.

Whoops - I misread that part of your post, sorry. In any case, thanks for your comments re Neale and Wines - makes great sense and very helpful

 

[Slammer]

Rowsus... You are a machine!... If I spent even half the time as what you do in responding to everyone's request, my wife would kill me.
Your in depth analysis and time you put into this is insane and I guess from behalf of everyone here, your efforts without a doubt are much appreciated.