Opinion Questions For Rowsus
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Rowsus,
What are your thoughts on Zac Smith as R2? Been in my team for a bit, then I get scared and then put a gun (Maric/Sandi)...but then my overall team feels compromised.
Reason for considering Smith is because of his easy run at the start and plus he's cheap enough to hopefully be a stepping stone to a gun Ruck later in the year.
What are your thoughts on Zac Smith as R2? Been in my team for a bit, then I get scared and then put a gun (Maric/Sandi)...but then my overall team feels compromised.
Reason for considering Smith is because of his easy run at the start and plus he's cheap enough to hopefully be a stepping stone to a gun Ruck later in the year.
expl0it,
I agree that his early draw makes him a viable option, as a starting R2. I would only take him though, if the dollar difference between him, and a Maric/Goldy/Mummy type is getting you a good upgrade somewhere else. Don't just compare Smith to say Goldy, compare Smith and player B to Goldy and player A.
I agree that his early draw makes him a viable option, as a starting R2. I would only take him though, if the dollar difference between him, and a Maric/Goldy/Mummy type is getting you a good upgrade somewhere else. Don't just compare Smith to say Goldy, compare Smith and player B to Goldy and player A.
Rowsus. I keep getting dragged back to Jack Steven. I have one spot in my mids that I am not set on and I have rotated a number of players into that spot but keep coming back to Steven as he is so much cheaper than others I am looking at (Kennedy, Danger and even Bennell for example) , which allows me to strengthen my backs. If I take Steven I will be hoping he is a keeper. Do you think he can average enough to be a keeper?
Hey Rowsus,
How will the ASADA announcement affect your team selections?
Personally, If many of them get banned, I will only substitute in a few top up players as rookies and not bring in any mid pricers, unless there is a solid option in defence in the 200-250k range. If they're proven innocent, I will bring in Hibbered for Shaw.
How will the ASADA announcement affect your team selections?
Personally, If many of them get banned, I will only substitute in a few top up players as rookies and not bring in any mid pricers, unless there is a solid option in defence in the 200-250k range. If they're proven innocent, I will bring in Hibbered for Shaw.
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Hi Rowsus,
Ruck cover or not?
M/F rookie in the mids?
Hogan/N Brown have JS, is it worth a bit?
Swan, looks like he is swanning, does he give a s%it?
If you were to take a punt on a KPF, who would it be?
Saved up a few for you buddy. Don't bust a gut mate, an opinion sentence each will be cool. A few others may be interested to.
Cheers,
Keith
Ruck cover or not?
M/F rookie in the mids?
Hogan/N Brown have JS, is it worth a bit?
Swan, looks like he is swanning, does he give a s%it?
If you were to take a punt on a KPF, who would it be?
Saved up a few for you buddy. Don't bust a gut mate, an opinion sentence each will be cool. A few others may be interested to.
Cheers,
Keith
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Mudflap. I would be totally surprised if Steven lost money, so from that point of view, he is a "safe risk". It's not beyond him to score at an M6/8 to level, and he's one of the better cheap options we have. I'm not running him, as I am worried about his ability to play 20 games, and I'm a bit worried about his supply, given St Kilda will be so ordinary, and their Rucks look like they will struggle too. I think he deserves to be a popular pick, and will probably please those that take him.
That Midpricer in my Fwd line is actually Lycett. I am however toying with the idea of changing Cripps to Young, and then after Round 2 I can decide if I want to keep Young, or change him to Cripps/Sheed/Newton in a correction trade. The big question mark on Young is that TOG%. I am confident he can score as well as, or better than, the other 3 on a SC/100%TOG basis. I'm just not sure he won't continue that near 50% strike rate of wearing the green vest.
As to your 2 choices, you can certainly make a strong case for either. I guess it comes down to which Def Rookies you already have, and do you have confidence in the one you'd match up with Buddy? If you're not at least reasonably confident in that Def Rookie, then go Simpson/Young.
As to your 2 choices, you can certainly make a strong case for either. I guess it comes down to which Def Rookies you already have, and do you have confidence in the one you'd match up with Buddy? If you're not at least reasonably confident in that Def Rookie, then go Simpson/Young.
Hey Pro,
At the moment I'm taking the just-don't-know-what-to-do-so-do-nothing approach. I am avoiding all Essendon players in my planning. I really don't have a strong opinion one way or the other on whether there should be suspensions, and how long they should be if they are any. My gut feel is, there shouldn't be any, but having dragged it out this long, they may feel they have to do something! Somebody was floating a 2-4 game suspension somewhere. To me, that would be the most ridiculous result ever, and the worst possible result as far as our SC planning goes. I realise our SC planning is actually the minor consideration in all this, and the players themselves are the first consideration. Still, I think you either have enough evidence to whack the players with a big stick, or you just don't whack them at all! Whack the Club, for sloppy governance, but either have enough proof on the players, or drop it.
If there is a suspension longer than 6 games, there are a few Rookie type/priced players I will revisit, as they get some time to moo. If there is no suspension, or a 2-4 week one, I will just leave all Essendon players out of my team, until we see things settle down for them.
At the moment I'm taking the just-don't-know-what-to-do-so-do-nothing approach. I am avoiding all Essendon players in my planning. I really don't have a strong opinion one way or the other on whether there should be suspensions, and how long they should be if they are any. My gut feel is, there shouldn't be any, but having dragged it out this long, they may feel they have to do something! Somebody was floating a 2-4 game suspension somewhere. To me, that would be the most ridiculous result ever, and the worst possible result as far as our SC planning goes. I realise our SC planning is actually the minor consideration in all this, and the players themselves are the first consideration. Still, I think you either have enough evidence to whack the players with a big stick, or you just don't whack them at all! Whack the Club, for sloppy governance, but either have enough proof on the players, or drop it.
I don't want this to start an ASADA decision discussion in this thread!
If there is a suspension longer than 6 games, there are a few Rookie type/priced players I will revisit, as they get some time to moo. If there is no suspension, or a 2-4 week one, I will just leave all Essendon players out of my team, until we see things settle down for them.
Hey MrM,
I may be too tough in my expectation on Stepping Stones. I want at least $80-$100k profit from them, as well as the points obviously. So looking at your Price range, we want a $300k player that averages 80/game, up to a $418k player that averages around 104/game to achieve those things. This why I believe "expensive" Stepping Stones just don't work. They have to score at or near a Keeper level, and you just end up umming and aaahing about keeping them anyway. This is known as the M8 trap.
If I had $300k-$418k, and I was looking to fatten that player to sacrifice at the altar of Gaz, I would be looking at the obvious candidates of Wells and Rich, and I would even consider Langford, or even J Kelly (GWS), if you were trying to steer away from the crowd. I actually don't like the idea, in general. I have little confidence in the players we are discussing to produce what we want. Wells might be my first pick, if I had a gun to my head, and was forced into playing that strategy.
I may be too tough in my expectation on Stepping Stones. I want at least $80-$100k profit from them, as well as the points obviously. So looking at your Price range, we want a $300k player that averages 80/game, up to a $418k player that averages around 104/game to achieve those things. This why I believe "expensive" Stepping Stones just don't work. They have to score at or near a Keeper level, and you just end up umming and aaahing about keeping them anyway. This is known as the M8 trap.
If I had $300k-$418k, and I was looking to fatten that player to sacrifice at the altar of Gaz, I would be looking at the obvious candidates of Wells and Rich, and I would even consider Langford, or even J Kelly (GWS), if you were trying to steer away from the crowd. I actually don't like the idea, in general. I have little confidence in the players we are discussing to produce what we want. Wells might be my first pick, if I had a gun to my head, and was forced into playing that strategy.
Hi Courtesans
Yes, I have Lycett locked in at M4. I like the fact that having Ruck cover adds around 3/game to the "value" of that player, each time you use them to facilitate coverage from your F7. Use it 4 times, and you have turned an 85/game player into a 97/game player. You could wait for problems to strike, and they will, but I figure I will just save a trade, and put it in place now.
I'm all for it, and have Lambert there now. Completes the link, if it is needed, as I have M/F's sitting in my Fwd line. If there were enough good, cheaper Mid Rookies, I would be happy to wait to complete the link, as it is, there's not a wealth of good looking sub $130k Mid Rookies, so I'm happy to go to the M/F rookies to fill a spot.
JS can be gold with Rookies. It's better to have slow burner, taking 10 games to make $80k, than a quick starter that finds himself back in the magoos by round 3 or 4. Having said that, I won't be having either of them. I believe anyone running a 4 Rookie Def should have Brown, otherwise the risk is too high. I'm running a 2 Rookie Def, so feel safe without him. If I was running a 5 rookie Fwd I would be really tempted by Hogan, and if I was running a 6 Rookie Fwd, I would say he was a must. I'm running a 4 Rookie Fwd, and feel comfortable going without him.
He reminds of the former front bench politician, riding out his time on the back bench, just waiting for his pension to fatten before he takes a luxurious retirement. He will find the odd motivation, like Anzac day. Boy, he loves an Anzac Day display, but outside of that, as Collingwoods finals hopes slowly evaporate as the season continues, the likelihood of Swan showing glimpses of his spectacular former self, will also evaporate. He will offer a teasing score here or there, and people will say "we only want a 100/game, he's not Mid only any more". I'm pretty sure there will be a stretch of games in the second half of the season, or late in the season, where he won't give us 90's on a consistent basis.
To be honest, I might be being a bit hard on him, and just running with your theme, but I do have a gut feel the spark is gone with him.
Early on NRoo. Can go big before his knee starts to make things hard for him. also scored ridiculously high in St Kilda wins last season, something like a 145/game average. He's got a use by date of about Rnd 6 to 8, and if the Saints are going to win 5 games this year, it will be early on! After that I'd be looking to Roughie or Hawkins. Hawkins could prosper with some help this season from Clark. When the Hawk averaged 95 in 2012 he had Podsiadley there. I think People forget just how good Podsiadley was in 2010-2012, and I think Hawkins can really benefit from Clark being there. For argument purposes, I don't count Buddy as a KPF. He seems to be too mobile, and doesn't take those pack marks as often as KPF normally does.
No gut busted.
Yes, I have Lycett locked in at M4. I like the fact that having Ruck cover adds around 3/game to the "value" of that player, each time you use them to facilitate coverage from your F7. Use it 4 times, and you have turned an 85/game player into a 97/game player. You could wait for problems to strike, and they will, but I figure I will just save a trade, and put it in place now.
I'm all for it, and have Lambert there now. Completes the link, if it is needed, as I have M/F's sitting in my Fwd line. If there were enough good, cheaper Mid Rookies, I would be happy to wait to complete the link, as it is, there's not a wealth of good looking sub $130k Mid Rookies, so I'm happy to go to the M/F rookies to fill a spot.
JS can be gold with Rookies. It's better to have slow burner, taking 10 games to make $80k, than a quick starter that finds himself back in the magoos by round 3 or 4. Having said that, I won't be having either of them. I believe anyone running a 4 Rookie Def should have Brown, otherwise the risk is too high. I'm running a 2 Rookie Def, so feel safe without him. If I was running a 5 rookie Fwd I would be really tempted by Hogan, and if I was running a 6 Rookie Fwd, I would say he was a must. I'm running a 4 Rookie Fwd, and feel comfortable going without him.
He reminds of the former front bench politician, riding out his time on the back bench, just waiting for his pension to fatten before he takes a luxurious retirement. He will find the odd motivation, like Anzac day. Boy, he loves an Anzac Day display, but outside of that, as Collingwoods finals hopes slowly evaporate as the season continues, the likelihood of Swan showing glimpses of his spectacular former self, will also evaporate. He will offer a teasing score here or there, and people will say "we only want a 100/game, he's not Mid only any more". I'm pretty sure there will be a stretch of games in the second half of the season, or late in the season, where he won't give us 90's on a consistent basis.
To be honest, I might be being a bit hard on him, and just running with your theme, but I do have a gut feel the spark is gone with him.
Early on NRoo. Can go big before his knee starts to make things hard for him. also scored ridiculously high in St Kilda wins last season, something like a 145/game average. He's got a use by date of about Rnd 6 to 8, and if the Saints are going to win 5 games this year, it will be early on! After that I'd be looking to Roughie or Hawkins. Hawkins could prosper with some help this season from Clark. When the Hawk averaged 95 in 2012 he had Podsiadley there. I think People forget just how good Podsiadley was in 2010-2012, and I think Hawkins can really benefit from Clark being there. For argument purposes, I don't count Buddy as a KPF. He seems to be too mobile, and doesn't take those pack marks as often as KPF normally does.
No gut busted.
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Keeping in mind, that a players price will nearly be dead flat by round 11, if they score at a constant score per week, at approximately 4950*ave/game, Steven needs to average 121 to have $600k as the price he is heading towards. To reach it by Round 6 he needs to average 140. I know the Saints draw is easyish early on, but I can't see that happening, Mum!
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First time I've bothered you Rowsus. Your insightfulness is amazing. Many thanks for sharing it.
I don't want to start a witch-hunt here but I'm wondering about the wisdom of starting with Salem this year. He seems a very popular pick at the moment but is it justified?
I was burned by him last year and worried it could happen again. His SC performance in NAB1 was ordinary and reasonable in NAB3. He evidently sizzled in NAB2. Is he a must have or is the jury still out? As a Melbourne man you should have a fair idea.
He may not even have great JS. A couple of quiet games could see him dunked I mean dumped. Can he set the Demons alight?
I don't want to start a witch-hunt here but I'm wondering about the wisdom of starting with Salem this year. He seems a very popular pick at the moment but is it justified?
I was burned by him last year and worried it could happen again. His SC performance in NAB1 was ordinary and reasonable in NAB3. He evidently sizzled in NAB2. Is he a must have or is the jury still out? As a Melbourne man you should have a fair idea.
He may not even have great JS. A couple of quiet games could see him dunked I mean dumped. Can he set the Demons alight?
Thanks for the kind words, B4C.
I am seeing very few must have players this year, whether it is Rookies or Prems. I think the only must have this season is a plan, a direction to run in, and the capabilities to reach your destination in an a reasonable amount of Rounds/Trades.
I think we have very little worry about from Oyer and Terminer, and if they look like stepping in, and upsetting things, I am sure Willy Phips will intervene on our behalf. I wonder if Salem's mother's maiden name is Danvers?
I wouldn't be too worried about NAB1, but I wouldn't be putting any grand expectations on Salem either. Keeping in mind the general aim with a Rookie is to grow in value $200k, and not too many do that in a season, then Salem needs to average around 76/game to achieve this. I think his JS is pretty good, and even if he averages 70, he has produced useful points, and could still achieve his +$200k goal, with one good score, and the ensuing price rises in the following weeks. He's no "must have", but he does look a safe-ish option. I can see many many teams running a Salem/Clark F5/6 combo, and some as a F4/5 combo. There could be merit in running against the masses, I just think the he is a small risk of being a bad pick, so I will run with the masses...... this time.
I am seeing very few must have players this year, whether it is Rookies or Prems. I think the only must have this season is a plan, a direction to run in, and the capabilities to reach your destination in an a reasonable amount of Rounds/Trades.
I think we have very little worry about from Oyer and Terminer, and if they look like stepping in, and upsetting things, I am sure Willy Phips will intervene on our behalf. I wonder if Salem's mother's maiden name is Danvers?
I wouldn't be too worried about NAB1, but I wouldn't be putting any grand expectations on Salem either. Keeping in mind the general aim with a Rookie is to grow in value $200k, and not too many do that in a season, then Salem needs to average around 76/game to achieve this. I think his JS is pretty good, and even if he averages 70, he has produced useful points, and could still achieve his +$200k goal, with one good score, and the ensuing price rises in the following weeks. He's no "must have", but he does look a safe-ish option. I can see many many teams running a Salem/Clark F5/6 combo, and some as a F4/5 combo. There could be merit in running against the masses, I just think the he is a small risk of being a bad pick, so I will run with the masses...... this time.
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