Opinion Questions For Rowsus
- Thread starter Rowsus
- Start date
- Status
Hi Rowsus
I am trying to finalize my team and I am trying to assess whether to include Brett Goodes in my side. He is pricey for a rookie at around $245k.
From my calculations if Brett Goodes averages 80. He will be worth about $354K after round 8, which is a $109k profit.
vs say N.Brown who is $100k cheaper at $146K. If Brown averages 55 after round 8 he would be worth $237K which is a $91k profit.
So my question is for the sake of $20k profit, am I better of spending $100k difference on other lines.
My thoughts are I'm better off with a cheaper rookie or go another premium defender.
I'd love to know your opinion.
Thanks in advance.
I am trying to finalize my team and I am trying to assess whether to include Brett Goodes in my side. He is pricey for a rookie at around $245k.
From my calculations if Brett Goodes averages 80. He will be worth about $354K after round 8, which is a $109k profit.
vs say N.Brown who is $100k cheaper at $146K. If Brown averages 55 after round 8 he would be worth $237K which is a $91k profit.
So my question is for the sake of $20k profit, am I better of spending $100k difference on other lines.
My thoughts are I'm better off with a cheaper rookie or go another premium defender.
I'd love to know your opinion.
Thanks in advance.
I have always liked the idea too, especially given how injury prone ruckmen inevitably are.
However, have you ever had any love for Bellchambers? He's a massive hack but at a very tempting price - especially if he plays as Essendon's number one ruck.
I'm not seeing many experienced coaches with him in their teams any more though. Has not seeing him pre-season scared you/people off? Was he ever in your calculations?
Am I missing something?
Cheers!
However, have you ever had any love for Bellchambers? He's a massive hack but at a very tempting price - especially if he plays as Essendon's number one ruck.
I'm not seeing many experienced coaches with him in their teams any more though. Has not seeing him pre-season scared you/people off? Was he ever in your calculations?
Am I missing something?
Cheers!
Hi Rowsus,
Many thanks for your detailed and insightful stats and observations. It changes the game...
I was hoping you could help me with an assessment of Pittard v Laird as potential mid price back options?
I also read your post about jong and wondered if you had the disposal stats from the NAB cup or were you referring to last year? Supposedly he has a bit of a major transformation and has worked on disposal efficiency and fitness throughout the summer to the extent where he will probably hold down the main position of in and under at the dogs. I also heard the big moon on the radio the other day pumping his tyres and talking about the ridiculous development over the summer. I was doing something else so didn't fully hear but I think they said he was in the top 5 or so for score involvements, or maybe score chains??
Thanks for your hard work!
Many thanks for your detailed and insightful stats and observations. It changes the game...
I was hoping you could help me with an assessment of Pittard v Laird as potential mid price back options?
I also read your post about jong and wondered if you had the disposal stats from the NAB cup or were you referring to last year? Supposedly he has a bit of a major transformation and has worked on disposal efficiency and fitness throughout the summer to the extent where he will probably hold down the main position of in and under at the dogs. I also heard the big moon on the radio the other day pumping his tyres and talking about the ridiculous development over the summer. I was doing something else so didn't fully hear but I think they said he was in the top 5 or so for score involvements, or maybe score chains??
Thanks for your hard work!
- Joined
- 22 Jan 2013
- Messages
- 3,858
- Likes
- 1,652
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
Hi Rowsus,
Another player im considering that i havnt seen in any teams yet is Shaun Burgoyne.
What are your thoughts? with frawley in and gibbo running off half back doing as he pleases dropping in filling holes ext, will this give SB a free run all over the ground?
Think there will be alot of good scores come from a few of the hawk defenders this year.
Also think they are going to be tough to score against this year a back six of
Gibson,Lake,Frawley,Suckling,Birchall,Hodge good luck beating these guys i think also throw in spangher,stratton,schoenmakers,durrea tough tough team to crack and whitex to return to
Thanks BTJ
Another player im considering that i havnt seen in any teams yet is Shaun Burgoyne.
What are your thoughts? with frawley in and gibbo running off half back doing as he pleases dropping in filling holes ext, will this give SB a free run all over the ground?
Think there will be alot of good scores come from a few of the hawk defenders this year.
Also think they are going to be tough to score against this year a back six of
Gibson,Lake,Frawley,Suckling,Birchall,Hodge good luck beating these guys i think also throw in spangher,stratton,schoenmakers,durrea tough tough team to crack and whitex to return to
Thanks BTJ
Last edited:
Hey Rowsus,
Just another few questions and I promise I will leave you alone....
1. Have been looking at Leunberger as R2 (Have Lycett also as F4 as cover)
Do you think Leunberger can get back to his best even with Martin? I am just not convinced with Nic Nat. I reckon Lycett may steal some of his points.
2. The next question lies with Rocky? I don't see him in many teams and I have chosen to bypass Ablett due to his injury affected pre-season.
I currently have Rocky in my team as I think he can still pump out some big scores. I think he will be more difficult to get via trades even if his drops a little.
3. Goodes - Do you still have him in your team? Has proven in the past he can pump out pretty good scores. Is he worth it? My concern is his JS.
4. J.Selwood. Currently don't have in in my team. Can go big with his contested possession footy but do you think the Cats will struggle this season which could affect his output. Reason being I currently have Pendles, Fyfe and Kennedy which I think doesn't help with bye rounds.
No dramas if you don't get to comment..I understand.
Cheers
Just another few questions and I promise I will leave you alone....
1. Have been looking at Leunberger as R2 (Have Lycett also as F4 as cover)
Do you think Leunberger can get back to his best even with Martin? I am just not convinced with Nic Nat. I reckon Lycett may steal some of his points.
2. The next question lies with Rocky? I don't see him in many teams and I have chosen to bypass Ablett due to his injury affected pre-season.
I currently have Rocky in my team as I think he can still pump out some big scores. I think he will be more difficult to get via trades even if his drops a little.
3. Goodes - Do you still have him in your team? Has proven in the past he can pump out pretty good scores. Is he worth it? My concern is his JS.
4. J.Selwood. Currently don't have in in my team. Can go big with his contested possession footy but do you think the Cats will struggle this season which could affect his output. Reason being I currently have Pendles, Fyfe and Kennedy which I think doesn't help with bye rounds.
No dramas if you don't get to comment..I understand.
Cheers
- Joined
- 19 Jun 2012
- Messages
- 8,560
- Likes
- 11,561
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
Makes good sense Rowsus, Lycett has been in and out. I think it may prove unwise to go into the season without some form of reliable ruckcover, it could be the soft underbelly of many. In reality it is a weakness that should be covered in my view. No point having Panzers charging across Russia without winter clothing for the troops, is a long campaign.
Last edited:
Hi Guys,
first things first. By my calculations if Goodes averages 80, and Brown 55, their respective prices (and price rises) after Round 8 will be:
Goodes $373,100 (+$127,900), Brown $253,100 (+$106,200)
If Brown averages 55, then Goodes needs to average around 74 for them to have the same value rise by Round 8.
We can only speculate as to why Goodes didn't play last season, but what we can say is he played 13 games @ 91/game in 2013, and only 2 games @ 26/game (71%TOG!) in 2014. He went on to be one of the better players in the VFL team last season, including winning the Norm Goss Medal for best on ground in the Grand Final.
We also know, that the Bulldogs side from last season is missing:
Liberatore (22), Griffen(19), Cooney(18), Higgins(20), Giansiracusa(15), Jones(10), Tutt(7), Williams (7), Austin (11), Young (4), Howard (2)
That's 125 games from 2014 gone from their list, and you can't replace all of that by playing young players!
Yes, I believe there will be some focus on blooding younger players this season, but you have to do it with balance, and still maintain a side that is capable of winning/being competitive. To that aim, you play the better players from your VFL team to top up the list. Biggs (when fit), and Boyd come in, but we are talking an average of 6 players/game that need to be replaced on the field this season. All that leads me to believe, if Goodes can play like he did in 2013, like he did in the VFL in 2014, and how he did in the NAB Cup (2 games- ave's 73%TOG, 17.5 Dis, 100 SC), he will have reasonable JS.
You'd like your "Rookies" to make $200k. Not all do, but that's the aim. Goodes needs to average very high 80's to do that. Given the problems we have finding any Rookies in the Def line we can be confident in, I am happy to lock Goodes in, and if he gives me anything over 70's, I will take it, begrudgingly. Mid to high 70's, and I will be thinking it's ok, and anything better will give a good advantage over those that didn't take him, especially if they try and trade him in later!
first things first. By my calculations if Goodes averages 80, and Brown 55, their respective prices (and price rises) after Round 8 will be:
Goodes $373,100 (+$127,900), Brown $253,100 (+$106,200)
If Brown averages 55, then Goodes needs to average around 74 for them to have the same value rise by Round 8.
We can only speculate as to why Goodes didn't play last season, but what we can say is he played 13 games @ 91/game in 2013, and only 2 games @ 26/game (71%TOG!) in 2014. He went on to be one of the better players in the VFL team last season, including winning the Norm Goss Medal for best on ground in the Grand Final.
We also know, that the Bulldogs side from last season is missing:
Liberatore (22), Griffen(19), Cooney(18), Higgins(20), Giansiracusa(15), Jones(10), Tutt(7), Williams (7), Austin (11), Young (4), Howard (2)
That's 125 games from 2014 gone from their list, and you can't replace all of that by playing young players!
Yes, I believe there will be some focus on blooding younger players this season, but you have to do it with balance, and still maintain a side that is capable of winning/being competitive. To that aim, you play the better players from your VFL team to top up the list. Biggs (when fit), and Boyd come in, but we are talking an average of 6 players/game that need to be replaced on the field this season. All that leads me to believe, if Goodes can play like he did in 2013, like he did in the VFL in 2014, and how he did in the NAB Cup (2 games- ave's 73%TOG, 17.5 Dis, 100 SC), he will have reasonable JS.
You'd like your "Rookies" to make $200k. Not all do, but that's the aim. Goodes needs to average very high 80's to do that. Given the problems we have finding any Rookies in the Def line we can be confident in, I am happy to lock Goodes in, and if he gives me anything over 70's, I will take it, begrudgingly. Mid to high 70's, and I will be thinking it's ok, and anything better will give a good advantage over those that didn't take him, especially if they try and trade him in later!
Last edited:
The reason you're not seeing Bellchambers in too many teams is, it would seem crazy to "depend" on him, until we know the result of the ASADA situation. That combined with his bad scoring and injury history would make him a near ridiculous choice.... right now. If he gets the all clear from ASADA, and you think he will play enough games, and won't be affected by Giles too much, then he's an option. I will add, even if he wasn't an Essendon player, I would probably still take Lycett. Lycett has at least shown us that he could possibly score 90's semi regularly with no Cox there now, and so potentially fills a F6 spot, without his "Ruck cover bonus". I'm not expecting him to do this, but the potential is there.
Hi Rowsus,
Many thanks for your detailed and insightful stats and observations. It changes the game...
I was hoping you could help me with an assessment of Pittard v Laird as potential mid price back options?
I also read your post about jong and wondered if you had the disposal stats from the NAB cup or were you referring to last year? Supposedly he has a bit of a major transformation and has worked on disposal efficiency and fitness throughout the summer to the extent where he will probably hold down the main position of in and under at the dogs. I also heard the big moon on the radio the other day pumping his tyres and talking about the ridiculous development over the summer. I was doing something else so didn't fully hear but I think they said he was in the top 5 or so for score involvements, or maybe score chains??
Thanks for your hard work!
Many thanks for your detailed and insightful stats and observations. It changes the game...
I was hoping you could help me with an assessment of Pittard v Laird as potential mid price back options?
I also read your post about jong and wondered if you had the disposal stats from the NAB cup or were you referring to last year? Supposedly he has a bit of a major transformation and has worked on disposal efficiency and fitness throughout the summer to the extent where he will probably hold down the main position of in and under at the dogs. I also heard the big moon on the radio the other day pumping his tyres and talking about the ridiculous development over the summer. I was doing something else so didn't fully hear but I think they said he was in the top 5 or so for score involvements, or maybe score chains??
Thanks for your hard work!
Firstly Jong.
I'd be pretty keen to take a risk with him, if he was $50k cheaper, or even if he was M/F. Looking at his stats: Ave K:H (Dis Eff%)
2012 AFL 8.0:9.0 (70.6%) VFL 4.8:8.2 (65.4%)
2013 AFL 0.0:0.0 (00.0%) VFL 3.3:4.6 (66.2%)
2014 AFL 4.7:6.8 (78.3%) VFL 5.9:11.7 (72.7%)
His Dis Eff isn't terrible, but some of those K:H's will drive you nuts if you had him. It leads to high possession Counts, but low SC scores, very frustrating. There's certainly plenty of opportunity for him this season at the Bullies, but you need to have confidence he will average 90 before you took him. I'm not saying he can't/won't do that, but I'm not confident of him doing it.
Pittard posted a couple of good scores in the NAB last season, and had a few people excited about his 2014 season, but he failed to deliver. His NAB this season was ok, but not as good as last year. At his price of $358,400 he's pretty much too expensive to be a Stepping Stone in Def, so you need to believe he can average 88-90+ to take him. I haven't seen anything that makes me think he can do that.
Laird generally gets too many run with and lock-down roles for me to take a risk on him. He has shown he can score well, when let off the leash, but I wouldn't be backing that to happen too often. He may have had that freedom more in this years NAB, but remember, very few tags are set in the NAB Cup matches. He's a little cheaper than Pittard, maybe even cheaper enough that he could be a Def Stepping Stone, but once Again, I'm not confident he can/will score at the 80-82 needed consistently, for him to be a good Stepping Stone down back. I think there are better options than both of them in that $300-$350k price range. If forced to run with one, I'd choose Laird, but only because he's cheaper.
- Status