Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[KLo30]

Cheers KLo. Cant say I research a player like that..

Whilst Supercoach is based on a game played and coach by humans it uses statistics for it's points. The more you understand the game and the mathematical probabilities surrounding it the closer you are to success. Hence, the professional players making a living playing fantasy sports in the USA on a daily basis (eg. Draft Kings, FanDuel, etc).

This is not to say that watching games and having a vast knowledge of the physical game is to be underestimated, however this can often lead to under and over estimates of "game" scoring due to influence on the game from each involvement. Though it will give you a strong indication for weekly match-ups and form streaks.

Very interesting article.

 

[Courtesans]

Whilst Supercoach is based on a game played and coach by humans it uses statistics for it's points. The more you understand the game and the mathematical probabilities surrounding it the closer you are to success. Hence, the professional players making a living playing fantasy sports in the USA on a daily basis (eg. Draft Kings, FanDuel, etc).

This is not to say that watching games and having a vast knowledge of the physical game is to be underestimated, however this can often lead to under and over estimates of "game" scoring due to influence on the game from each involvement. Though it will give you a strong indication for weekly match-ups and form streaks.

Very interesting article.

Sent Rowsus a book, 'Thinking Fast and Slow' a couple of years back, I thoroughly recommend it to you if you haven't read it. Be right down your alley. Luck still plays a big part. Cheers mate.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,
What is your view on the following trade:
Miller>Lambert
Miller will never score 75+ in a game, given the role he plays, and there is talk of him being the probable sub this weekend. I know Lambert hasn't played a game yet, and its probably wise to wait, but I have 2 trades planned out for next week, and Im confident in Lambert's scoring ability

By doing this trade, I can also open up the M/F link, as well as being able to choose between Lambert and Vandenberg/Heeney/Ellis-Yolmen's scores

It could pay off, but it seems unnecessarily risky. Lambert, if he plays every game, he won't be on the bubble until Round 4, so why go so early on him? If you wanted a FD with job prospects, you should/could have started him round 1. While I agree Miller doesn't look like he will amount much, I'm not sure I would risk a trade to a player that hasn't even played a game yet!

Also, do you see Mitch Clark as a necessary rookie?

Asked by yourself at post #3868 on page 194. and answered by myself at post #3874, on the same page.

 

[KLo30]

Sent Rowsus a book, 'Thinking Fast and Slow' a couple of years back, I thoroughly recommend it to you if you haven't read it. Be right down your alley. Luck still plays a big part. Cheers mate.

Cheers Courtesans. After my 1699 week 1, I'm fully cognisant with luck. It's also much easier to give a single piece of advice on a variable than to piece together all variables together to formulate scenarios and/or a solution.

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus,
I am interested why you have gone Hannebery? I wouldn't think he would be a top 8 mid. I probably missed something above, but why trade to 'maybe' instead of a ' probable' like Fyfe, Selwood, JPK, perhaps?

Not wanting to talk for Rowsus, however I think Rowsus explained it pretty well in his thread http://www.supercoachscores.com/threads/2250-JPK-Parker-Hannebery-and-Jack

Cheers KLo. Cant say I research a player like that..

Whilst Supercoach is based on a game played and coach by humans it uses statistics for it's points. The more you understand the game and the mathematical probabilities surrounding it the closer you are to success. Hence, the professional players making a living playing fantasy sports in the USA on a daily basis (eg. Draft Kings, FanDuel, etc).

This is not to say that watching games and having a vast knowledge of the physical game is to be underestimated, however this can often lead to under and over estimates of "game" scoring due to influence on the game from each involvement. Though it will give you a strong indication for weekly match-ups and form streaks.

Very interesting article.

Sent Rowsus a book, 'Thinking Fast and Slow' a couple of years back, I thoroughly recommend it to you if you haven't read it. Be right down your alley. Luck still plays a big part. Cheers mate.

Pretty much for the reasons that KLo30 quoted from another thread, and also, it brings my team more in line with what it looked like most of the preseason, as well as giving me the flexibility of a little cash. When you get a very early injury to a Keeper, I think it is best to follow your pre-season thoughts, where practical, rather than change course, or worse still, let a Round 1 score sway you!

It's a very intersting book, and worth the read, but I will confess it can be heavy going in places.

 

[Courtesans]

Pretty much for the reasons that KLo30 quoted from another thread, and also, it brings my team more in line with what it looked like most of the preseason, as well as giving me the flexibility of a little cash. When you get a very early injury to a Keeper, I think it is best to follow your pre-season thoughts, where practical, rather than change course, or worse still, let a Round 1 score sway you!

It's a very intersting book, and worth the read, but I will confess it can be heavy going in places.

Maybe Hockey should meet you two. Be that as it may, in the end we still need our slice of luck coupled with 'share market theory', right stock, right time, buy/sell. At a certain level, luck plays a role more than I think you may give it. Just my view.

Regardless, luv this stuff, thanks.

 

[SC FANATIC]

It reminds me of some research that I think NASA spent about $1,000,000 on back in the 70's or 80's. They wanted to determine exactly what was the ideal axle for a yo-yo!!!!
They wanted to trial various diameters, as the diameter determines the speed the yo-yo falls and spins at. They wanted to trial various materials, as a smooth, slippery surface will allow for less loss of speed, when the yo-yo was sleeping, but it had to have enough grip, to respond to the jerk to bring it back up to your hand. After months of research, they announced that the ideal diameter was 6-7mm, and the ideal material to use, giving both enough slip and grip was wood! Yep, NASA spent $1,000,000 and months of research to tell us, the ideal axle for a yo-yo was a piece of 6mm wooden dowel! Who knew?!

Please tell stories more often, this is gold

 

[DeliciousJedi]

Some scientists reckon the chicken came first.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...icken-really-DID-come-egg-say-scientists.html

I can just imagine these scientists at a party....

"So, what do you do?"

"I solved the what came first chicken verses egg debate. Cool, Eh? "

It's interesting, and without wanting to start a religious or educational debate (or philosophical!), unless you are a creationist, it seems obvious the chicken came first. Nothing can evolve into an egg, as evolution requires 1,000's of generations to slowly occur, and the egg itself can't reproduce generations, as it is itself, a part of the reproduction process. Something can, and did, evolve into a chicken, so the chicken must have come first.
Silly scientists....... it's not that hard, is it?

What? You may have your argument the wrong way around. If you accept evolution is fact, then the egg comes before the chicken. The chicken has to come from something, not nothing, and it can't have evolved before itself, that doesn't make any sense. The egg (which contained the chicken) wouldn't have been laid by a chicken. It would have been an animal very similar to it.

 

[Rowsus]

Please tell stories more often, this is gold

You might have read this one before...

A toothpaste factory had a problem: Due to the way the production line was set up, sometimes empty boxes were shipped without the tube inside. People with experience in designing production lines will tell you how difficult it is to have everything happen with timings so precise that every single unit coming off of it is perfect 100% of the time. Small variations in the environment (which cannot be controlled in a cost-effective fashion) mean quality assurance checks must be smartly distributed across the production line so that customers all the way down to the supermarket won’t get frustrated and purchase another product instead.

Understanding how important that was, the CEO of the toothpaste factory gathered the top people in the company together. Since their own engineering department was already stretched too thin, they decided to hire an external engineering company to solve their empty boxes problem.

The project followed the usual process: budget and project sponsor allocated, RFP (request for proposal), third-parties selected, and six months (and $8 million) later a fantastic solution was delivered — on time, on budget, high quality and everyone in the project had a great time. The problem was solved by using high-tech precision scales that would sound a bell and flash lights whenever a toothpaste box would weigh less than it should. The line would stop, and someone had to walk over and yank the defective box off the line, then press another button to re-start the line.

A short time later, the CEO decided to have a look at the ROI (return on investment) of the project: amazing results! No empty boxes ever shipped out of the factory after the scales were put in place. There were very few customer complaints, and they were gaining market share. “That was some money well spent!” he said, before looking closely at the other statistics in the report.

The number of defects picked up by the scales was 0 after three weeks of production use. How could that be? It should have been picking up at least a dozen a day, so maybe there was something wrong with the report. He filed a bug against it, and after some investigation, the engineers indicated the statistics were indeed correct. The scales were NOT picking up any defects, because all boxes that got to that point in the conveyor belt were good.

Perplexed, the CEO traveled down to the factory and walked up to the part of the line where the precision scales were installed. A few feet before the scale, a $20 desk fan was blowing any empty boxes off the belt and into a bin. Puzzled, the CEO turned to one of the workers who stated, “Oh, that…One of the guys put it there ’cause he was tired of walking over every time the bell rang!”

$8 million vs $20 Hmmm! Money well spent?

 

[Santoz]

Great story. I'm borrowing it for the school kids ...

 

[Torress]

Hey row, this thread is awsome. I avoided carnage rd 1 no gaz/ rocky. A few poor prem scores (who didnt), got a 2064 so happy with the start and have only really missed vandenberg which will be corrected next week.

My question is, if one does not have any pressing concerns and happy with structure of team, thoughts on trading aggressive this week to "set up" team with overall position in back of mind. I do not mean sideways, or a prem down to a midpricer or even prem to rookie.

Brodie smith appeared to have a great role, adelaide have one of the best fixtures this season. If i knew smith was bound for midfield time i would of picked him, nab didnt give us much indication so decided to not.

My team as it lined up rd 1;

mackintosh, saad, heater, hibbo, newnes, goodes, E- brown, oxley

Pendles V, fyfe C ,jelwood, danger, wines, wallis, cripps, CEY E- Heeney, cockatoo, miller

Nicnat, bellchambers E- o'brien

Gray, swan, dusty, bartel, clark, salem E- hogan lambert

14k remaining.

Im considering cripps to vandenberg and newnes to smith.

Im not sold on newnes, im doubting he will be a top ten defender too, i see not having him potentially being a positive POD especially if he under performs. Think i got suckered in with hype.

I see smith as around ~100 average with being a top 3 defender and i feel confident that will happen. Newnes i see around ~80.
Dont think newnes is a bad pick, just think smith is a better pick.

I dont think ive asked a question before rowsus, a longish post i know but would appreciate your POV.

To try and win it, is trading this week to set team up just plain stupid?

 

[Bob Loblaw]

What? You may have your argument the wrong way around. If you accept evolution is fact, then the egg comes before the chicken. The chicken has to come from something, not nothing, and it can't have evolved before itself, that doesn't make any sense. The egg (which contained the chicken) wouldn't have been laid by a chicken. It would have been an animal very similar to it.

Honestly, I don't want to make this about evolution. But I'm feeling this is one of these arguments that will go for ages so here is an explanation.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1a8pI65emDE

For a less scientific explanation watch...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CRBHxJBUv_A

Edit: it all comes down to the definition one gives to an egg and a chicken.

You might have read this one before...

A toothpaste factory had a problem: Due to the way the production line was set up, sometimes empty boxes were shipped without the tube inside. People with experience in designing production lines will tell you how difficult it is to have everything happen with timings so precise that every single unit coming off of it is perfect 100% of the time. Small variations in the environment (which cannot be controlled in a cost-effective fashion) mean quality assurance checks must be smartly distributed across the production line so that customers all the way down to the supermarket won’t get frustrated and purchase another product instead.

Understanding how important that was, the CEO of the toothpaste factory gathered the top people in the company together. Since their own engineering department was already stretched too thin, they decided to hire an external engineering company to solve their empty boxes problem.

The project followed the usual process: budget and project sponsor allocated, RFP (request for proposal), third-parties selected, and six months (and $8 million) later a fantastic solution was delivered — on time, on budget, high quality and everyone in the project had a great time. The problem was solved by using high-tech precision scales that would sound a bell and flash lights whenever a toothpaste box would weigh less than it should. The line would stop, and someone had to walk over and yank the defective box off the line, then press another button to re-start the line.

A short time later, the CEO decided to have a look at the ROI (return on investment) of the project: amazing results! No empty boxes ever shipped out of the factory after the scales were put in place. There were very few customer complaints, and they were gaining market share. “That was some money well spent!” he said, before looking closely at the other statistics in the report.

The number of defects picked up by the scales was 0 after three weeks of production use. How could that be? It should have been picking up at least a dozen a day, so maybe there was something wrong with the report. He filed a bug against it, and after some investigation, the engineers indicated the statistics were indeed correct. The scales were NOT picking up any defects, because all boxes that got to that point in the conveyor belt were good.

Perplexed, the CEO traveled down to the factory and walked up to the part of the line where the precision scales were installed. A few feet before the scale, a $20 desk fan was blowing any empty boxes off the belt and into a bin. Puzzled, the CEO turned to one of the workers who stated, “Oh, that…One of the guys put it there ’cause he was tired of walking over every time the bell rang!”

$8 million vs $20 Hmmm! Money well spent?

Absolutely Great.
I suppose another message is, don't employ a third party engineering company. The first thing they probably had on the brainstorm board was, "use fan to push off empty boxes". The boss obviously didn't go with the plan because there's not too much profit you can get from a $20 solution.

 

[Rickwood]

Great story. I'm borrowing it for the school kids ...

It's going into my staff/design planning session on Wednesday.

Gold

 

[Rickwood]

Nicnat, bellchambers E- o'brien

To try and win it, is trading this week to set team up just plain stupid?

Rick will give you an opinion...... No, but you may have a more pressing need beginning this weekend. Signs are pointing to a TBC late withdrawal, with S McKernan being listed as emerg, so that's potentially eating a donut, and I can't see a plan to cover that now or into the future. Assume your future plan is a TBC move to the fwds, use O'Brien as the swinger, and FWD rookie upgarde to the ruck?

 

[Philzsay]

You might have read this one before...

A toothpaste factory had a problem: Due to the way the production line was set up, sometimes empty boxes were shipped without the tube inside. People with experience in designing production lines will tell you how difficult it is to have everything happen with timings so precise that every single unit coming off of it is perfect 100% of the time. Small variations in the environment (which cannot be controlled in a cost-effective fashion) mean quality assurance checks must be smartly distributed across the production line so that customers all the way down to the supermarket won’t get frustrated and purchase another product instead.

Understanding how important that was, the CEO of the toothpaste factory gathered the top people in the company together. Since their own engineering department was already stretched too thin, they decided to hire an external engineering company to solve their empty boxes problem.

The project followed the usual process: budget and project sponsor allocated, RFP (request for proposal), third-parties selected, and six months (and $8 million) later a fantastic solution was delivered — on time, on budget, high quality and everyone in the project had a great time. The problem was solved by using high-tech precision scales that would sound a bell and flash lights whenever a toothpaste box would weigh less than it should. The line would stop, and someone had to walk over and yank the defective box off the line, then press another button to re-start the line.

A short time later, the CEO decided to have a look at the ROI (return on investment) of the project: amazing results! No empty boxes ever shipped out of the factory after the scales were put in place. There were very few customer complaints, and they were gaining market share. “That was some money well spent!” he said, before looking closely at the other statistics in the report.

The number of defects picked up by the scales was 0 after three weeks of production use. How could that be? It should have been picking up at least a dozen a day, so maybe there was something wrong with the report. He filed a bug against it, and after some investigation, the engineers indicated the statistics were indeed correct. The scales were NOT picking up any defects, because all boxes that got to that point in the conveyor belt were good.

Perplexed, the CEO traveled down to the factory and walked up to the part of the line where the precision scales were installed. A few feet before the scale, a $20 desk fan was blowing any empty boxes off the belt and into a bin. Puzzled, the CEO turned to one of the workers who stated, “Oh, that…One of the guys put it there ’cause he was tired of walking over every time the bell rang!”

$8 million vs $20 Hmmm! Money well spent?

I have another factory story, and the details may not be precise as it was told to me about 15 or so years ago, so Chinese whispers and all that, plus I can't remember which business it was!

A factory had a reward for whichever employee could find a solution/idea that would save the most costs. The guy who won was not any of the managers, engineers, accounts staff, executives, but the Janitor. His solution - turn the lights off at night! You see the factory floor was automated, and the machines didn't need light to work. Apparently saved them thousands of dollars a year.

 

[Bones]

I have another factory story, and the details may not be precise as it was told to me about 15 or so years ago, so Chinese whispers and all that, plus I can't remember which business it was!

A factory had a reward for whichever employee could find a solution/idea that would save the most costs. The guy who won was not any of the managers, engineers, accounts staff, executives, but the Janitor. His solution - turn the lights off at night! You see the factory floor was automated, and the machines didn't need light to work. Apparently saved them thousands of dollars a year.

What was that one about a match factory who hired a consultant to save them money. The consultant said - OK I'll give you an idea and you pay me what you think its worth. He told them to only put sulfur (or whatever that stuff is) on one end of the match instead of both ends. The CEO wrote him an enormous check.

 

[DeliciousJedi]

In that factory story, "weighs slightly less than it should" does not implicitly imply an empty box. So the fan solution wasn't fixing the minor defects.

Honestly, I don't want to make this about evolution. But I'm feeling this is one of these arguments that will go for ages so here is an explanation.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1a8pI65emDE

For a less scientific explanation watch...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CRBHxJBUv_A

Edit: it all comes down to the definition one gives to an egg and a chicken.

You don't 'believe' in evolution. You either accept the evidence for it and treat it as fact, or you come up with your own evidence that disproves it. That's how science works and that's how evolution has been around since first discovered 1859.

I'm sure there are youtube videos to that effect too.

 

[Torress]

Rick will give you an opinion...... No, but I you may have a more pressing need beginning this weekend. Signs are pointing to a TBC late withdrawal, with S McKernan being listed as emerg, so that's potentially eating a donut, and I can't see a plan to cover that now or into the future. Assume your future plan is a TBC move to the fwds, use O'Brien as the swinger, and FWD rookie upgarde to the ruck?

Thanks for reply mate. Being a bomber supporter fully accross tbc knee soreness.
End of the day, bombers play sunday. If he is a late out ive only got leuy playing the late sunday to trade to. And for 1 week id eat a donut anyway rather than sideways to leuy.
Just rolling the dice, tbc can play enough games in a row and gain some value.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey row, this thread is awsome. I avoided carnage rd 1 no gaz/ rocky. A few poor prem scores (who didnt), got a 2064 so happy with the start and have only really missed vandenberg which will be corrected next week.

My question is, if one does not have any pressing concerns and happy with structure of team, thoughts on trading aggressive this week to "set up" team with overall position in back of mind. I do not mean sideways, or a prem down to a midpricer or even prem to rookie.

Brodie smith appeared to have a great role, adelaide have one of the best fixtures this season. If i knew smith was bound for midfield time i would of picked him, nab didnt give us much indication so decided to not.

My team as it lined up rd 1;

mackintosh, saad, heater, hibbo, newnes, goodes, E- brown, oxley

Pendles V, fyfe C ,jelwood, danger, wines, wallis, cripps, CEY E- Heeney, cockatoo, miller

Nicnat, bellchambers E- o'brien

Gray, swan, dusty, bartel, clark, salem E- hogan lambert

14k remaining.

Im considering cripps to vandenberg and newnes to smith.

Im not sold on newnes, im doubting he will be a top ten defender too, i see not having him potentially being a positive POD especially if he under performs. Think i got suckered in with hype.

I see smith as around ~100 average with being a top 3 defender and i feel confident that will happen. Newnes i see around ~80.
Dont think newnes is a bad pick, just think smith is a better pick.

I dont think ive asked a question before rowsus, a longish post i know but would appreciate your POV.

To try and win it, is trading this week to set team up just plain stupid?

Rick will give you an opinion...... No, but you may have a more pressing need beginning this weekend. Signs are pointing to a TBC late withdrawal, with S McKernan being listed as emerg, so that's potentially eating a donut, and I can't see a plan to cover that now or into the future. Assume your future plan is a TBC move to the fwds, use O'Brien as the swinger, and FWD rookie upgarde to the ruck?

Thanks for reply mate. Being a bomber supporter fully accross tbc knee soreness.
End of the day, bombers play sunday. If he is a late out ive only got leuy playing the late sunday to trade to. And for 1 week id eat a donut anyway rather than sideways to leuy.
Just rolling the dice, tbc can play enough games in a row and gain some value.

Hey Torress, thanks, I'm glad you're enjoying it.
It does seem very aggressive, and "knee-jerky" on one games information. Don't forget Adelaide slaughtered the Roos for 3 quarters, and they won't do that every week. It does look like vdB will be one of the better Rookies to have, and the differential between Newnes and Smith may well turn out to be 20/game, but I'm not sure about your solution. It nearly needs to meet your scenario to be comsidered good..... nearly. If Newnes rallies, like most people are hoping/thinking he will, and finishes in the top 8-12 Defs, it will be considered a poor set of trades. There will be other opportunities to grab Smith down the track, and I wouldn't chop Cripps, unless he is wearing the green vest tonight. Remember, it only takes one half decent game to turn a Rookies fortunes around.
I'd wait. You got your structure right by the sound of it, and this rings of second guessing after one weeks scores.

 

[dyii]

Hey Rowsus, I'm thinking of pulling the trigger on TBC (F4)

With all the madness around ruck scoring, combined with his knee problems (why did i get him in the first place ), I think he's a liability to have in the forward line, seeing as ruckmen score less now. I can either downgrade him to Jack Lonie and use the cash next week to get some quality premos in my side (e.g. Griffen>Wines, Lumumba>Smith if need be) or I can get Lumumba out for a cheaper priced defender in Vlastuin, and use the cash to go TBC>Adams.

On that note, what are your thoughts on Vlastuin? I've seen a lot of talk about Hunt, but I have more confidence in Vlastuin being a higher draft pick, showing potential in his first season as well as this year being his third season. I think he may average 90-95 which is great for D6, what do you reckon?

Cheers