Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Bobbie]

Hey Rowsus. I was all set on the Gaz to Sloane trade but now having second thoughts (as usual!). Do you think it would be crazy to go Bont instead with a view of moving him forward later? This would bolster the kitty significantly. I would be left with $400K after doing the second trade of KK to Docherty (I could then upgrade Lumumba to Smith the following week, assuming Smith gets this week off). Having Bont also gives me a handy DPP link too.

(Oh I just found out I can actually go Gaz/Cripps to Sloane/Bont with $40K spare. Looks nice on paper but leaves me thin in defence still.)

The original trade plan of Gaz/KK to Sloane/Docherty leaves me with $205K so still a healthy bank balance. Is it better to swap Gaz to a "proven" player in Sloane and just leave Bont as a future upgrade target?

 

[Prochard]

Hey Rowsus, is Miller>Van Berlo actually worth a trade?

 

[Bones]

Hi Rowsus,
Not had the best of starts like many and leaving Goodes on the ground last week didn't help . (This is by way of context rather than a whinge as I don't want to drop back much further).

I will be trading Ablett + Goodes this week barring any surprises and I see my choices as follows:

1: Sloane + Oxley (have Mcintosh, Brown and Adamson FD with Saad in the middle)
2: Sloane + NVB (using dpp)
3: Bonts + Oxley
4: Bonts + Rance/Smith/Docherty/Simpson

I have most of the low b/e rookies (other than Oxley and McGrath) but I also have Cripps and Sheed, Anderson and an FD. Just not sure which is the best way to go and would appreciate your thoughts.

 

[darkshines]

Hey Rowsus, say i nailed enough rookies, premos all performing well enough to keep and avoided Gaz Rocky etc = no corrections req. So i guess I'm viewing a trade this week as a luxury item.

If none of my def premos are out (which admittedly hasnt happened yet .... but i took Birchall by choice in R1 to get Mcintosh score), i have 2 of Oxley/Mcintosh/Saad/C Pearce on field in defense.

Given im in a nice position of no corrections, is it absurd to trade Miller to Adamson as a floating donut? It seems many coaches are relying on 2 if not all of Saad/Mc/Oxley on field, so could be a fillip if i can avoid the odd disaster here or there that most will wear.

Of course the vanilla thing would be to trade to bubble rookie, but I'm not 100% sure on going Miller to McGrath/Sinclair/NVB is worthy.

Its probably the Adamson trade vs none for me as a decision, 30/70 at the minute. Thoughts?

 

[Jurn Stern]

Hey Rowsus.

Long time reader of your work, but first time that I've asked for your help on anything. I generally get all the help I need by reading other posts and inferring how they related to my team. My question relates to correctional trades. I have 100k in the kitty, and am considering 3 things to do with it and my trades.

a) upgrade an under performing premo defender to Smith, assuming he plays
b) upgrade an under performing rookie to NVB
c) holding my trade and cash

Smith should out score my premo defender for the year and average above 100 from now.
Upgrading a rookie would make me more cash for future upgrades, and provide me with higher scoring in the meantime.
Holding my cash and trades means I will have 1 more trade come the pointy end of the season.

I'm keen to hear your response.

Thanks for everything.
On a seperate note, what Melbourne game are you going to see when you come to Aus later this year?

 

[Adrenaline]

Hey Adrenaline,
as someone who has suffered through years of a frozen shoulder, I would agree, if that's what he's got he's not coming good soon. I think holding Ablett is far too great of a risk, when there is actually some value in trading him now. Someone like JPK is a great choice. As to Goodes, if you can't find a player in your price range that you like, I'd go down to Brown. There is no intention of Trading Brown out, but at least when you trade McIntosh/Saad/Oxley out, you will still have cover, even if it is only 50 points worth.

Hi rowsus
Thanks for your reply. If you had Ablett lambert and Goodes in your team would you consider Ablett and Lambert as your priority or Ablett and Goodes or just Ablett?

 

[Suits]

Hi Rowsus

Love your work

Currently have $208k in the bank. Am thinking of trading Ablett and Miller/Lambert to Rich, Van Berlo or McGrath.

My current rookies are McIntosh, Saad, Oxley, Brown down back (2 start)
Newton, Heeney, Vandenberg, Ellis-Yolmen, Miller, Lambert in the mids (3 start)
Cox in the rucks (doesn't start obv.)
Salem, Clark, Hogan and Lonie in the forwards (2 start).

At this stage I'm thinking of going Ablett to Rich and Lambert/Miller to Van Berlo. This would leave me with a whopping $490k. I'm happy to sit on this money briefly as I really think Rich's scoring has been impeccable, in spite of (sometimes heavy) losses. Van Berlo also looks solid.

Basically my question for you is, if money was not a problem for you, who would you pick out of Rich, Van Berlo, McGrath, or any other potential cash earner?

Thanks very much.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus. I was all set on the Gaz to Sloane trade but now having second thoughts (as usual!). Do you think it would be crazy to go Bont instead with a view of moving him forward later? This would bolster the kitty significantly. I would be left with $400K after doing the second trade of KK to Docherty (I could then upgrade Lumumba to Smith the following week, assuming Smith gets this week off). Having Bont also gives me a handy DPP link too.

(Oh I just found out I can actually go Gaz/Cripps to Sloane/Bont with $40K spare. Looks nice on paper but leaves me thin in defence still.)

The original trade plan of Gaz/KK to Sloane/Docherty leaves me with $205K so still a healthy bank balance. Is it better to swap Gaz to a "proven" player in Sloane and just leave Bont as a future upgrade target?

Hey Bobbie,
if my memory serves me correctly, just like me, your "second guessing" has got you into trouble once or twice in the last season or so. Going like for like with Ablett is probably the best idea. Sloane has posted 17 120+ scores in the last 2.02 seasons (45 games), which makes him a viable candidate to use in the Captain's loophole. Assuming you have Fyfe, I think Sloane is a great choice for Ablett. To my mind, Sloane and JPK lead the pack for Ablett replacements for those that have Fyfe already.
Fortunately, Carlton play before the Bullies, so if Cripps is green vested/late out Again/not selected, it makes using him to get Bont an easy choice.
If he isn't, I guess you need to ask yourself, what do you hope/expect Bont can average from here, and Docherty can average from here. Both are obviously being looked on as Keepers, and Fwd Keepers are expected to score more than Def Keepers, so if you think Doch may be just a D6, and Bont an F3/4, there's probably more safety in locking the Bont in now. If you are confident Doch can be a bit better, and maybe be a D4, the $205k leftover is more than useful.
As to thinking you are thin in Defence, keep in mind the Defs usually have bigger downs swings in their prices, as they are more likely to throw in a 40 than another Prem. That means the Def line is the easiest to fix later, and the line you give up the least point differential on, when compating your Rookies/Stepping Stones/Mid Pricers to the Prems.
Use your crystal ball, and decide if the Bont can become a near must/should have. He is the one, that if you have a high opinion of him, is the most likely to be harder to reach, the longer you leave him. Docherty/Smith et al will be more likely to dip at some stage.
Bottom line, get Sloane, and unless you have Docherty well below Bont in expected averages from here, I'd go Docherty and cash. If you think Docherty is only on the edge of being a decent Def Keeper, but you are comfortable that Bont is a Fwd Keeper, go Bont. If you can't decide, it is always better to go the cheaper option/option that leaves you more cash. The cash represents versatility, and potentially saved time and trades.
Tough decision, but the timing of the games this week favours you in your decision making.
Good luck, I hope you jump the right way.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus, is Miller>Van Berlo actually worth a trade?

Hey Pro,
Pushed for a yes or no answer, I'd say no. If you don't have all the cheaper "likely suspects", it is better get one of them, if you do, you don't really need NvB.

 

[Courtesans]

Hi Rowsus,
You have touched on this earlier, but as an observation it could be said having Rockliff and Ablett at the beginning may be a blessing. This is based on not having to do any corrective rookie or otherwise trades however.

In my case Rockliff is now Fyfe, Ablett is now Bont and Luenberger is now Goldstein; 3 trades, which is equivalent to most after 2 rounds. This gives 175k in the kitty for me which can only be helpful. Arguably, I now have 3 and not 2 keepers, and a few bucks.

My point perhaps is, sometimes adversity may shine a little.

As others have said, thanks for your work for any who ask.

Keith

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,
Not had the best of starts like many and leaving Goodes on the ground last week didn't help . (This is by way of context rather than a whinge as I don't want to drop back much further).

I will be trading Ablett + Goodes this week barring any surprises and I see my choices as follows:

1: Sloane + Oxley (have Mcintosh, Brown and Adamson FD with Saad in the middle)
2: Sloane + NVB (using dpp)
3: Bonts + Oxley
4: Bonts + Rance/Smith/Docherty/Simpson

I have most of the low b/e rookies (other than Oxley and McGrath) but I also have Cripps and Sheed, Anderson and an FD. Just not sure which is the best way to go and would appreciate your thoughts.

Hi Bones,
I like option 1 the best. Like for like is probably best with Ablett. That means Fyfe/Sloane/JPK. I'd have Pendles and Selwood on that list, but they both have that little dark cloud over their heads right now. Goodes to Oxley gives you cash both ways, and it gives you the opportunity to look at Bont against a good team. Oxley will rise in price more than Bont this week, so that justifies waiting a week on the Bont.
NvB will cost you too much more than Oxley to justify losing your completed DPP M/D link.
Rance won't be playing teams with dud or young, inexperienced tall Fwds each week. He's a solid mid to high 80's player for a number of years, and even if he can turn that into a 92-93 this season, he will only average 88-90 from here anyway. Smith, Docherty and Simpson are better picks than him, for various reasons. Cripps, Sheed and Anderson still have the opportunity to turn their fortunes around, I wouldn't label them certain problems yet. It only takes one good score.

 

[Bones]

Hi Rowsus,
Not had the best of starts like many and leaving Goodes on the ground last week didn't help . (This is by way of context rather than a whinge as I don't want to drop back much further).

I will be trading Ablett + Goodes this week barring any surprises and I see my choices as follows:

1: Sloane + Oxley (have Mcintosh, Brown and Adamson FD with Saad in the middle)
2: Sloane + NVB (using dpp)
3: Bonts + Oxley
4: Bonts + Rance/Smith/Docherty/Simpson

I have most of the low b/e rookies (other than Oxley and McGrath) but I also have Cripps and Sheed, Anderson and an FD. Just not sure which is the best way to go and would appreciate your thoughts.

Hi Bones,
I like option 1 the best. Like for like is probably best with Ablett. That means Fyfe/Sloane/JPK. I'd have Pendles and Selwood on that list, but they both have that little dark cloud over their heads right now. Goodes to Oxley gives you cash both ways, and it gives you the opportunity to look at Bont against a good team. Oxley will rise in price more than Bont this week, so that justifies waiting a week on the Bont.
NvB will cost you too much more than Oxley to justify losing your completed DPP M/D link.
Rance won't be playing teams with dud or young, inexperienced tall Fwds each week. He's a solid mid to high 80's player for a number of years, and even if he can turn that into a 92-93 this season, he will only average 88-90 from here anyway. Smith, Docherty and Simpson are better picks than him, for various reasons. Cripps, Sheed and Anderson still have the opportunity to turn their fortunes around, I wouldn't label them certain problems yet. It only takes one good score.

Thanks Rowsus,

Instead of Bonts is Rich a worthy option (Rich + Oxley) as a stepping stone? It would give me a hell of a warchest for next week.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus, say i nailed enough rookies, premos all performing well enough to keep and avoided Gaz Rocky etc = no corrections req. So i guess I'm viewing a trade this week as a luxury item.

If none of my def premos are out (which admittedly hasnt happened yet .... but i took Birchall by choice in R1 to get Mcintosh score), i have 2 of Oxley/Mcintosh/Saad/C Pearce on field in defense.

Given im in a nice position of no corrections, is it absurd to trade Miller to Adamson as a floating donut? It seems many coaches are relying on 2 if not all of Saad/Mc/Oxley on field, so could be a fillip if i can avoid the odd disaster here or there that most will wear.

Of course the vanilla thing would be to trade to bubble rookie, but I'm not 100% sure on going Miller to McGrath/Sinclair/NVB is worthy.

Its probably the Adamson trade vs none for me as a decision, 30/70 at the minute. Thoughts?

Hey darkshines,
congratulations on getting a good set up to start with. Given your situation, where you believe you have enough of the better earning rookies, I would go the Adamson route with one proviso. It's only worthwhile if you are in a position to be by your computer/phone/tablet often enough to utilise it properly. If you are occupied on weekends, and won't get the chance to use it to it's fullest potential, you are probably better just to save the trade. If you can use it properly, it has the potential to make you enough points to justify the decision.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus.

Long time reader of your work, but first time that I've asked for your help on anything. I generally get all the help I need by reading other posts and inferring how they related to my team. My question relates to correctional trades. I have 100k in the kitty, and am considering 3 things to do with it and my trades.

a) upgrade an under performing premo defender to Smith, assuming he plays
b) upgrade an under performing rookie to NVB
c) holding my trade and cash

Smith should out score my premo defender for the year and average above 100 from now.
Upgrading a rookie would make me more cash for future upgrades, and provide me with higher scoring in the meantime.
Holding my cash and trades means I will have 1 more trade come the pointy end of the season.

I'm keen to hear your response.

Thanks for everything.
On a seperate note, what Melbourne game are you going to see when you come to Aus later this year?

Hey JS,
my thoughts are, that people are very quickly calling Newnes/Lumumba et al bad picks. I'm not sold that they are just yet. That's my opinion, and of the 3 options you've presented, I would go option C, and hold cash and trades for another week.
Having said that, I see you think Smith will be a 100+ from here. That's not something I agree with, BUT, if I was of that opinion, and Smith plays this week (I don't think he will play), I would definitely upgrade to him. So assuming he plays, and following your high opinion of him, if I was you, I'd go option A.

I'm not sure which games I am going to yet. At the moment I only have my travel dates locked in, and nothing else. I will certainly post on the site when I know though.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi rowsus
Thanks for your reply. If you had Ablett lambert and Goodes in your team would you consider Ablett and Lambert as your priority or Ablett and Goodes or just Ablett?

Hi Adrenaline, happy to help.
I'd probably prioritise Ablett and Goodes. Ablett's a lot of money to sit out, and Lambert's price isn't going anywhere, and his DPP could be useful. Goodes potentially loses money, and becomes a problem.

 

[darkshines]

Hey darkshines,
congratulations on getting a good set up to start with. Given your situation, where you believe you have enough of the better earning rookies, I would go the Adamson route with one proviso. It's only worthwhile if you are in a position to be by your computer/phone/tablet often enough to utilise it properly. If you are occupied on weekends, and won't get the chance to use it to it's fullest potential, you are probably better just to save the trade. If you can use it properly, it has the potential to make you enough points to justify the decision.

Legend, thanks. To the detriment of my marriage, i do have the phone available at all times ☺

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Hi Rowsus. I posted the following in the 'Round 3 Trades' thread but just thought I'd ask for your expert advice here too if you wouldn't mind;

Over the next 2 weeks I'll definitely be trading out Ablett and C Pearce. The two players I will be bringing in are definitely Fyfe and the Bont.

The problem is that I don't have the funds to do the two trades I'm planning on doing. I fall $54,200 short so basically I need to make a third trade to be able to make the other two trades possible. Fyfe has a breakeven of 110 so he will likely reach that and increase a bit in price and hopefully Pearce makes his breakeven of 55 and increases his price a little as well. So this week it will be Ablett to Bont and my mystery trade. Then next week Pearce to Fyfe.

My team is linked. Thoughts on the the third mystery trade?

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus

Love your work

Currently have $208k in the bank. Am thinking of trading Ablett and Miller/Lambert to Rich, Van Berlo or McGrath.

My current rookies are McIntosh, Saad, Oxley, Brown down back (2 start)
Newton, Heeney, Vandenberg, Ellis-Yolmen, Miller, Lambert in the mids (3 start)
Cox in the rucks (doesn't start obv.)
Salem, Clark, Hogan and Lonie in the forwards (2 start).

At this stage I'm thinking of going Ablett to Rich and Lambert/Miller to Van Berlo. This would leave me with a whopping $490k. I'm happy to sit on this money briefly as I really think Rich's scoring has been impeccable, in spite of (sometimes heavy) losses. Van Berlo also looks solid.

Basically my question for you is, if money was not a problem for you, who would you pick out of Rich, Van Berlo, McGrath, or any other potential cash earner?

Thanks very much.

Hi Suits, welcome aboard, and thanks for the kind words.
Pre-season I doubted Rich would be much good as a Stepping Stone. I figured he needed to average close to 100, and I didn't think he was up to it. With Rocky down, he might just be able to manage it, but I'm not 100% sure that justifies going Ablett to Rich. It locks in another trade down the track, which means Ablett, instead of costing you one trade, costs you two, possibly three trades! I think unless you started with a very deep Mid Prem list, I'd bring in Fyfe/Sloane/JPK. Rich won't produce that much money, and you can't get the points he scored in the first 2 Rounds, so I think it is best to go like for like with Ablett.
I doubt the value of Miller to NvB, but I can see (a very slight) argument for Lambert to NvB. If you can't utilise Lambert as a FD, which admittedly, he's not great for it, then I'd more likely go Lambert to McGrath.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,
You have touched on this earlier, but as an observation it could be said having Rockliff and Ablett at the beginning may be a blessing. This is based on not having to do any corrective rookie or otherwise trades however.

In my case Rockliff is now Fyfe, Ablett is now Bont and Luenberger is now Goldstein; 3 trades, which is equivalent to most after 2 rounds. This gives 175k in the kitty for me which can only be helpful. Arguably, I now have 3 and not 2 keepers, and a few bucks.

My point perhaps is, sometimes adversity may shine a little.

As others have said, thanks for your work for any who ask.

Keith

Hi Courtesans,
yes, it's not the worst disaster that could hit us. The high prices makes it an easy problem to solve, and while it burns a trade or two, it gave us 2 weeks of information to make a decision. I turned/am turning Ablett/Rocky/Miller/Rookie? into Fyfe/Neale/Bontempell/VandenBerg. I wanted Hannebery instead of Neale, but Neale allowed me to reach Bont easily. That was last week, before Ablett's left wing was confirmed as being knackered.
It would have been awkward if I wasn't satisfied with my Rookie list, but seeing as I went Miller to VandenBerg last week, I think I have enough of the right ones. Those that have Ablett/Rocky and Rookie problems need to fix those Rookie problems first, then get Prems to replace the other two.
I might have handled the whole thing differently, had I known Ablett was that bad before I traded last week, but I am not too upset at how it worked out. I just have to save a trade or two where I can in the coming weeks. I have a feeling the carnage will continue, and I would rather eat a rookie donut than spend a trade to fix it, in the next 3 or 4 weeks.
I like your Ablett/Rocky exchange. I reckon you've picked well there! Fixed 3 problems with the fix up. Good work.

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks Rowsus,

Instead of Bonts is Rich a worthy option (Rich + Oxley) as a stepping stone? It would give me a hell of a warchest for next week.

I don't like using Rich as an Ablett replacement. When you took Ablett, you were hoping there was one of the spots filled on your team that you wouldn't need to use a trade on. Ok, a trade is now locked in on your M1 spot, but by bringing in Rich, the Ablett selection has the potential to cost you three trades, and at the minimum, two trades. You wouldn't see Rich as a Keeper, and I think it is best for your trading future/budget, to go to another player that you hope you don't have to trade.
Bont you would be taking as a Fwd Keeper, so at least you are in theory and intention avoiding trading through that spot again. I still think Sloane is your best bet though.