Opinion Questions For Rowsus

Deeman1 · 17 Apr 2015

Hi Rowsus,

Trust you are well.

I'm after some advise, if you can.

Through some wreckless trading last week I have managed to back my self into a corner. My team is as follows:

Simpson, Newnes, Lumumba Kolojashnij, Goodes, McIntosh (Oxley, Saad)
Ablett, Pendlebury, Selwood, Dangerfield, Griffen, Cripps, Heeney, Vandenberg (Ellis-Yolman, Miller, Anderson)
Goldstein, Leunberger, (Read)
Gray, Martin, Swan, TBC, Salem, Clark (Hogan, Lamb)

Bank $130,600

Current Ranking 38k

Here are my options that I'm considering:

Option 1
GAJ -> Fyfe
Leuenberger -> Nic Naitanui

Cash Left $77,300

Means I miss on Van-berlo, but bring in 2 keepers.

Option 2
GAJ -> JPK
Miller -> Van-berlo

Cash $154,700

Which would mean playing TBC at R2 this week and Hogan on the ground in forwards, the $154,700 would be sufficient to fix my Leuenberger problem next week.

Option 3

GAJ -> Van-berlo
Leuenberger -> Nic Naitanui

Cash left $519,300

The $519,300 would in theory be enough to do 2 early upgrades over the next 3-4 weeks.

Whilst everybody seems to be against the Miller to Van-berlo trade due to the $100k outlay, I am well aware that although my rookies are pretty good at the moment, it only takes a green vest to arrest the cash generating ability of a rookie, no matter how good they are. I guess that is the thing that is drawing me towards Van-berlo.

I would love to know your thoughts and whether you see any better option for me.

Thank-you in advance

Monya Meow Meow · 17 Apr 2015

Good morning Rowsus, hope you are doing well!
I hope you can provide your opinion in some trades that I will be doing this week.

Rookie wise, I'm pretty sure I have all that I need so no correctives and no NVB for me. Your thoughts?
(Oxley, McIntosh, Saad) (Cripps, CEY, VDB, Heeney, Miller, Jed) (Salem, Clark, Hogan, Lonie)

My D1-D4 should hold for now although I have Goodes sitting on my bench. Don't like any upgrades or downgrades in DEF at the moment so I'm gonna hold him for now. Thoughts?

My first proposed trade is Gaz out to Sloane. Pretty straightforward I think and nets me some cash.

I was thinking about Bont the whole week and wonder if I should bring him in but I think I've cooled a bit on him now. Gray was another one I was looking at but his current B/E and upcoming draw makes me believe he will drop in price soon.
This pretty much leaves me with my second proposed trade of Swallow to JPK. Do you see any merits in this?
I don't think Swallow will be anywhere near the top 10 mids and I'd rather do an upgrade now to JPK and get my M1-M5 sorted out asap before I worry about my DEF and FWD lines. Your thoughts on this?

Currently only have $6,700 in the kitty so not a lot of room to move.
Thanks mate!

Rowsus · 17 Apr 2015

Juzzo said:

Howdy Juzzo,
while Lambert is a bit limited in his FD use, due to a few earlier games, having said that, I think you have your trades right. They seem like a good idea to me.

Rowsus · 17 Apr 2015

Jurn Stern said:

Good call, and all part of the reason I am reconsidering him.

Rowsus · 17 Apr 2015

Shaahorn said:

No way. His JS is obviously questionable. Why not see how he goes for a week or two, is my view.

Creeker · 17 Apr 2015

Stuck for a mid combo this week Rowsus, Would value your opinion.
Started with Gaz, Wells and Rich. (team linked) The idea was if Gaz got off to a slow start, I would trade him out along with the worst performing player from Wells and Rich, to hopefully gain 2 prems.
Looking at Lewis and the Bont. (injury cloud over Bont has me very nervous)
Dangerfield and Wines.
Prestia and Wines.
Lewis and Dylan Shiel. (While Shiel may not end up a keeper, his breakeven of 15 is very tempting) Could be a straight swap for J Selwood shortly with his breakeven of 203.
Also liking K Jack's form so far this season.

Thanks in advance Rowsus.

Rowsus · 17 Apr 2015

Deeman1 said:

Hi Deeman1,
I'm not sure what corner you backed yourself into. Your team looks ok.
I'm guessing you picked TBC/Read for Ruck coverage, so why not just cover Leuey? Yes, he's been terrible, but I think he can still turn it around, and do what you picked him for.
You could even just consider GAJ to Fyfe/JPK, and sit on your other trade. I'm not sure that missing NvB is the end of the World. If you feel he can continue to score as he has been, then bring him in, but outside of that, just let him go.
I saw no mention of the Bont, or fixing Goodes in your plans, so I'm guessing you decided to leave both of them. Nothing wrong with that, unless Goodes is green vested, then I'd do something with him. Go to Hunt for a Stepping Stone, or Brown for a cash out.
Trading Leuey now, particularly while you have cover that you planned to use in this situation, seems a little wasteful. It may turn out to be a good decision, or it may make you question why you took TBC, if you weren't prepared to use the cover when you need it.
I think I'd go GAJ to the Prem of your choice, and sit on the other trade, unless Goodes is vested, or you really REALLY like NvB.

Rowsus · 17 Apr 2015

Monya Meow Meow said:

Hi MMM,
I'm doing ok, and I hope you are too.
Nothing wrong with your plan/s. I don't see anything wrong with Swallow to JPK. While Swallow may still possibly fill a cheap M8 role, which is what we both took him for, he may come up short, or worse still turn into a M8 trap. Your idea of filling the "top end" first has merit. While we should be careful not to overpay for our traded in Prems, these trades fall into the corrective catagory, so in that sense, you shouldn't worry too much about the price. It is more like you are saying, if I could pick my Round 1 team again, i'd do this differently. I like it. A little bit of outside the square thinking. People dumping players that were picked for M2/3 or D3 type positions, and have a decent/reliable history, I think are making a mistake. Dumping a speculative D6/M8/F6 is not a mistake, at this stage, it is correcting a regret.

Deeman1 · 17 Apr 2015

Rowsus said:

Thanks for the response Rowsus,

The corner that I backed my self into was not following your advice last week and tradng one of my set and forget rucks (Maric) for Leuenberger, lol. Which as you predicted turned out to be a bad move.

The main reason behind it was after my initial team was made, I only had $600 in the cap. The two trades I was considering last week were GAJ -> JPK/Sloane or Maric -> Leuenberger and of course in hindsight I pulled th wrong triggger, lol.

No I had not really considered Goodes a major problem at this stage and had considered GAJ -> JPK and Cripps -> Bont which would leave around $42k in bank, but that seemed to be a waste of Cripps.

GingerNinja · 17 Apr 2015

G'Day Rowsus,

First Time poster but long time follower of this site and more specifically your Brownlow Thread. Before I ask for some valuable info I just want to take the opportunity to say a big thank you for the time and effort you put in. For someone that only checks in on the site every now and again (except leading into Brownlow time!) it's great to see some great stats-based analysis. I hold out for Brownlow time each year and RAMP/Fraction Quartered make up a big part of my workings-out leading into those all important live bets on the night. Getting on Priddis last year mid-count was very profitable!

Now for the important bit - I've got 8 of the top 10 Break-even rookies in my squad and want to get some value before trading. Because I have gone a little light on in the forward line with premiums I find now that I'm gambling with the right rookies to start on the field. Using the Emergency Loophole works with and Oxley-type scenario but in this case I don't have a non starter in the forward line and the DPP in the midfield is Krak (also named). I need to make up 2 spots on the field with a mix of Hogan/Salem/Clark/Ahmed Saad/Krak. I think the dees have their work cut out this week and expect Clark to warrant some close attention from the GC after he was held pretty well last week.

Not wanting to ruin the half-reasonable start to the year (4,340 Overall) so any advice would be great. Cheers

Monya Meow Meow · 17 Apr 2015

Rowsus said:

Hi MMM,
I'm doing ok, and I hope you are too.
Nothing wrong with your plan/s. I don't see anything wrong with Swallow to JPK. While Swallow may still possibly fill a cheap M8 role, which is what we both took him for, he may come up short, or worse still turn into a M8 trap. Your idea of filling the "top end" first has merit. While we should be careful not to overpay for our traded in Prems, these trades fall into the corrective catagory, so in that sense, you shouldn't worry too much about the price. It is more like you are saying, if I could pick my Round 1 team again, i'd do this differently. I like it. A little bit of outside the square thinking. People dumping players that were picked for M2/3 or D3 type positions, and have a decent/reliable history, I think are making a mistake. Dumping a speculative D6/M8/F6 is not a mistake, at this stage, it is correcting a regret.

Thanks for your thoughts mate, I will go ahead and make those corrective trades right this moment!

Rowsus · 17 Apr 2015

Creeker said:

Hi Creeker,
first let's look at the Gaz to Shiel to Selwood plan. I don't like it one little bit. Shiel's B/E of 15 can very quickly disappear.
If Shiel goes 100, 100 in the next 2 weeks, his price will look something like.
Currently $509,400 - B/E 15 scores 100 in Round 3
Goes to $546,800 - B/E 77 scores 100 in Round 4
Goes to $556,900 - B/E 133!!!
If Selwood does the same, and scores 100 in the next 2 weeks:
Currently $649,900 - B/E 204 scores 100 in Round 3
Goes to $604,100 - B/E 150 scores 100 in Round 4
Goes to $582,100 - B/E 149
So you nearly achieve your objective, and possibly do, if Shiel performs a little better. What I don't like is, it uses to 2 trades to achieve it. In this scenario, it saved you around $115k, but your trades are worth more than $115k. Bringing in a player at Shiels price should only be done if you are thinking of keeping them. They make lousy Stepping Stones, because it doesn't take a really bad score to stall their money making capabilities.
You could mount an argument for any of your other combinations, but I would only be bringing in players at that price, if you hoped/expected to keep them.

brad182 · 17 Apr 2015

Hey Rowsus,
Who would you field as a last rookie on field spot this week: Heeney or Vandenburg?

Def: Bugg vs Mcintosh vs Oxley
Have to choose 2 out of the above 3 defenders
Finding hard to get a read on Bugg this year, what kind of role is he playing and is he worth the risk this week? GWS playing Sydney has put me off starting him this week, would love your thoughts man

Rowsus · 17 Apr 2015

Deeman1 said:

I agree with you about Cripps. I can't believe so many Coaches are trading him out, on one bad half of football. He might turn out to be as good as everyone hoped, when they first took him, anyway.

AngryAnt · 17 Apr 2015

G'day Rowsus, love your work.

This would usually be a no brainer however with Pendlebury coming into tonight's game with an injury concern, would it be somewhat safer in trading Sloane in for GAJ ahead of Pendles? I want to do a straight swap from GAJ to the next best available premium mid I don't have and that would be Pendlebury if fully fit, however with his injury concern and also with Adelaide having a great run until their bye, would a cheaper Sloane be a better option? I already have Fyfe, and JPK and consider Pendlebury and then Sloane the best available mids I don't have. I am not considering Selwood yet as he is due a fall in value over the coming weeks.

Rowsus · 17 Apr 2015

GingerNinja said:

G'Day GN, welcome aboard!

I'm always happy to hear about someone betting smart, and making a profit. I'm happy I could help.

Hopefully the new boy, Range, will help us identify even more value this season.
Getting your onfield rookies right is always tough at this time of the year. It really makes a difference to your score, too.
I think I'd be going Clark and Salem. Clark is the most likely of that list to ever record a 100+ score, and GC had trouble holding Josh Bruce last week, so if Clark is up and about, he could be good. Of course, he could fluff up another 30 or 40 something, too. I'm guessing you took Salem with a belief he'd be scoring 75-80, so you need to back that decision up.
Saad is a small Fwd, and scores like one. He is a 50-55 player, that will occassionally throw up something better. Hogan is a tall Fwd in a team that might struggle to kick goals this week, and Krak would have to be a huge sub chance.
Good luck, I hope you jump the right way!

Rowsus · 17 Apr 2015

brad182 said:

Hey brad182,
I'm actually benching Saad this week, and playing Oxley and McIntosh. Saad is playing a much tougher opposition, and may be due for a down week after a couple of good games. Oxley and McIntosh have weaker opposition this week. Having said that, it wouldn't surprise me to see Bugg get a negating role, and potentially score less than the 3 of them. If forced to pick one of McIntosh or Oxley, I'd take McIntosh. He got plenty of it last week, but butchered it a bit. Hopefully he can use it better this week.

Creeker · 17 Apr 2015

Rowsus said:

Hi Creeker,
first let's look at the Gaz to Shiel to Selwood plan. I don't like it one little bit. Shiel's B/E of 15 can very quickly disappear.
If Shiel goes 100, 100 in the next 2 weeks, his price will look something like.
Currently $509,400 - B/E 15 scores 100 in Round 3
Goes to $546,800 - B/E 77 scores 100 in Round 4
Goes to $556,900 - B/E 133!!!
If Selwood does the same, and scores 100 in the next 2 weeks:
Currently $649,900 - B/E 204 scores 100 in Round 3
Goes to $604,100 - B/E 150 scores 100 in Round 4
Goes to $582,100 - B/E 149
So you nearly achieve your objective, and possibly do, if Shiel performs a little better. What I don't like is, it uses to 2 trades to achieve it. In this scenario, it saved you around $115k, but your trades are worth more than $115k. Bringing in a player at Shiels price should only be done if you are thinking of keeping them. They make lousy Stepping Stones, because it doesn't take a really bad score to stall their money making capabilities.
You could mount an argument for any of your other combinations, but I would only be bringing in players at that price, if you hoped/expected to keep them.

Many thanks, - solid advice regarding BE's.
Still on target for a July visit, owe you a few brews. We may have to re visit the other thread and get something confirmed regarding the SCS get together. Wouldn't mind booking accommodation shortly.

Rowsus · 17 Apr 2015

AngryAnt said:

G'day AA, thanks for that.
I agree, if I was in your position, the doubt on Pendlebury would make me take Sloane this week. Pendles has been under a cloud before, and busted out a good score, but it would just seem prudent to not risk bringing him in this week.

Rowsus · 17 Apr 2015

Creeker said:

I agree. We should set a date soon. Makes it easier for everyone to plan ahead.

Opinion Questions For Rowsus

Deeman1

Monya Meow Meow

Rowsus

Statistician

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Rowsus

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Creeker

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Deeman1

GingerNinja

Draftee

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brad182

Rising Star Nominee

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AngryAnt

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Creeker

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