Hi Rowsus,
Have two trades on the horizon this week. McGrath to Tarrant and Heeney/Anderson to Krakouer.
Does the McGrath to Tarrant trade for example make sense even though Im not getting any cash out of it initially, ie the value is all on the backend so to speak?
How do you weigh up the benefit of having a strategic floating donut and maximising scores vs maximising cash generation, ie, potentially Salem to Tarrant instead for example.
Currently running two donuts in McGrath and (potentially) Anderson.
How do you see it?
Hi Imjcb,
I must apologise. I wrote a 70-80 line reply to your question, and it just disappeared when I went to post it!
I don't have the patience to reproduce it all, so let me try summarising in points.
B/E's are largely meaningless in regards to a players earning potential. They are more of a safety net. In Tarrants case, he only has to run on the ground, and he goes up $62k. That fact has no bearing on his actual earning potential.
We generally talk of a players average being an indicator of their final price. But it's actually their more recent scores that indicate where they are heading. Usually it is around 4950 times their average. If Tarrant scores at 60 from here, he will top out at around $296k in Round 12, but his average will be around 71. The more recent average of 60 is more telling than his overall average of 71. - - 60 x 4950 = $297k, 71 x 4950 = $351k.
If McGrath wasn't injured, then unless you have a very high opinion of Tarrant's average from here on in, it would only be a justified trade if there were no other money making options on the horizon. It wouldn't surprise me if Tarrant averaged around 65-70 from here on in, got injured before he was fat, or lost his JS in the team before he was fat. A 70 average still makes him a good acquisition, and it is ok to cull another Rookie early to get a potential good Cash cow, but I would only do it in the circumstances described above. A high opinion of the in coming Cash cow, or no others on the Horizon, or if the Rookie you were culling had limited room for growth left.
Rookies are in our team to first make money, then score points, then provide cover,
then be loophole agents. It is dangerous to keep McGrath as a loophole agent, as he doesn't float (doesn't have DPP). One of the safeties of a FD, is the floating part. You get 2 benches to provide cover, with McGrath as a loophole agent there's only 1 player left giving you cover on the Fwd bench. That can quickly lead to problems. I would recommend against it as a medium to long term plan.
The fact that you make virtually no money on the Mcgrath to Tarrant trade is irrelevent. McGrath is no longer able to complete the job you acquired him for. He needs another 5 or 6 games to get close to his top out price, and is out for another 8 to 12 weeks. That means he is pretty much useless to you, as he won't be fat for milking before at least Round 17!
Salem is an option for your Tarrant trade, but only if you have good plans for the cash this week, or next week. While he might only score 50 this week (playing Freo), and rise $13k, and he might only have $40-50k of growth left in him, you'd still be crazy to axe him if there is no direct plan for the money, and Mcgrath still sits as a potential problem on your bench. His use is still there, if you are just grabbing blindly cash, I would leave him in your team.
Opinion is everything in this game. Blindly following the pack turns it into a pretty boring game in the end. Having an opinion, and following it is the most entertaining part of the game. sometimes it means you are part of the majority, following the same path, and sometimes it seperates you from the pack, in a good way, or in a bad way. The main thing is to have an opinion, and follow it, don't do something because the masses are doing it, and conversely, don't
NOT do something because the masses are doing it, if it really looks like the right thing to do!
I'm sorry, there was some other good stuff in there got lost, that was also going to be used to answer/reference some of the questions up ahead.
I hope this helped.