Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Hey Row,

Similar to a few of the questions above, what are your thoughts on getting Tarrant and / or Krakouer? And would it be better to trade them for playing rookies such as Heeney in the middle and Salem / Clark in the forward..or the non playing ones Anderson / Lamb but lose the loophole.

Also, like most, my defence is still a rabble. I will stick with Lumumba and Newnes for now, but Kelly (B/E 130) has to go. If i was to straight swap to Malceski (B/E 150) would it be better to do that this week or next? Same question if i was to upgrade to Smith (B/E 153) All of their prices will drop, just not sure how much and if its better to make that trade now or wait a week if i need to get both Krak and Taz.

Thanks in advance!

Scrap the Malceski part..he has just been ruled out for a couple of weeks. I will add another question though. I could downgrade Geelong's Kelly to Adelaide's Kelly, although that means i need to field two of Kelly, Oxley, McIntosh or Saad, but im still not confident on any defenders. If i did that trade it would free up cash to get any premo on any line. If that is the case is it better to pick the best player (likely a mid) or to get one of Tarrant / Krakouer for Lamb / Salem

Thanks again.

Hi Mike, congrats on your good start to the season!
At this early stage, I think it is best to get rid of non-playing rookies.
I'm with you 100% on it being hard to identify who the likely Def upgrade targets are. You could downgrade Malceski/Kelly to young Kelly, and grab Krak. It probably gives you 2 points of difference. no Tarrant, but Kelly(jnr). I am not totally sold on Tarrant, he may continue with one or two good scores, or he may fall back to the 50-60 player he has shown us in the past. People forget, that if he falls back to scoring 50's, his huge B/E now means nothing. If you forego Tarrant, McInnes should be on the bubble next week as a Fwd Rookie, and would also offer another possible point of difference for your team. He's tall, and with WC struggling for good tall stock, and Lycett stinking it up, McInnes probably doesn't need to do much to hold his place in the team.
Lots of options for you to consider. I wouldn't worry about having to field 2 of your Def Rookies. It might only be for 1 or 2 weeks.
Good luck, I hope you jump the right way.

 

[Rowsus]

The problem that is LYCETT

What to do dear Rowsus...

Started with him as ruck cover insurance hoping for 70's but to date he's scoring less than my forward rookies.

I want to downgrade to a couple of cash cows this week to generate cash for future upgrades, but apart of Heeney, I don't have any other rookies ready to cull yet. I'm going to ride the Newnes/Lumumba combo out a bit more as that's the last area which I will look to upgrade. So this leads me to the Lycett question...thinking of throwing away the 'key to the lock' at this stage and buying a more suitable key when I need to.

Is 385K too much to buy potential ruck cover, especially now that I'm considering sitting him on the bench?



Just read through your 'Ruck Draw Analysis' thread and interested in your comments/observations re Lycett. Are you thinking of doing away with the key to the lock as well?

I got Lycett for 3 reasons.
I thought he could average 85-88 while playing 2nd fiddle to NicNat.
The Ruck cover component was hopefully going to add about 6-12/game to his value.
I am still hoping/expecting NicNat might go missing, and Lycett gets his chance to "shine" with some bonus points.
Right now I have more pressing needs, so for this week, I will sit Lycett at R3, as Rucks have scored so poorly against Mummy. If Ryder looks like he can score ok with Lobbe in the team, I might look at going Lycett to Ryder in a few weeks, but for now, Lycett will survive.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus!

I was patient last week and it paid off nicely! best score so far for the year! so thanks again for your help!

I would like to bring in Krak and Tarrant this week. Do you think out of Salem, Lonie and Heeney, that Heeney is the one to go?

Hi w2Tk, I'm glad it worked out for you!
If I was choosing out of those 3, I would choose Heeney, unless the extra $40k of going Salem allows you to reach a good upgrade this week, or next week. If there is no specific target that needs that $40k, go Heeney.

Big chance Ando will be back this week, and Puopolo is injured. Still may be a sub again though and so that 24 point BE looks tough to get.

I agree, it's just a pity Hawthorn don't play before Sydney to make our decisions a bit easier!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, I am back for my weekly annoying question

How much weight do you place on a player's venue average?

I am interested in Boak as a mid upgrade: he has bottomed in price, has a good bye (for me), has a reasonable history (2013 - 106/21, 2014 - 105/21), the quality taggers are disappearing (Vince, Picken remaining?) and the Port draw opens up a lot after this week.

His average at Adelaide Oval is what is really getting me interested - 114 - with Port having 10/18 games at AO for the rest of the season. I know there is a lot of fluff talk about 'the stronghold' for Port etc etc, but do you think it does have some impact on a player's performance?

Cheers in advance!

Hi PC, not annoying at all!
I don't put too much weight on it, unless it helps me decide my C/VC for the week.
What you are missing is, if he has averaged 114 at AO (I make it 116), then he has only averaged 93 away from AO, and he still has 8 games to play away from there as well!
10 x 116 + 8 x 93 = 1904 => 1904/18 = 106/game. Why do you want a 106/game player in your Mids?
Also, if you break his AO scores up into 40+ wins, and other results, you get.
40+ wins - 4/546 = 136.5/game - all other games 9/961 = 106.8/game
It all looks too risky. You can't take a player, just because he averages what you want/need at one venue, when he is not so good away from that venue, and still has nearly half of his games away from his favourite ground.

 

[Rowsus]

G'day Rowsus,

Is Young coming into your side this week?

Once again I had a shocker... Sloane capt.
Looks like though I made two reasonable trades in bringing in Swan and Krak early.
However the defence seems to be my main problem with TBC also not helping
I have $110k in the bank and still have Wallis on mid bench.
With my backline of Broadbent, Newnes, lumumba all struggling do I upgrade and leave Wallis?
Was thinking Newnes has to go and possibly Lumumba or do I look at upgrading Wallis
Newnes to Hibberd maybe ?

Hi Slammer,
I'm seriously considering Young instead of Tarrant. My seasons a mess, and Young coming in and doing well, would give me more pleasure than Tarrant, so why not?
I'm not sure you have enough coin to upgrade Wallis properly, so maybe start dealing with your Defs. I'm not sure who should go first. Lumumba is playing how his history said he would, so we might be silly to expect improvement. Newnes is young, and still setting his ESP (Expected Scoring Pattern), so improvement wouldn't surprise. He has been terrible, and played mainly shutdown last week. You could make argument for either, but maybe if Weller is back this week, give Newnes one more chance!

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

The defence has been a dilemma since pre-season. For me it is still a dilemma as I do not see many defenders who I can feel confident in selecting.
Four rounds in do you think we are any wiser in knowing who the top 6 to 10 defenders may be?

Hey vdellu,
to be honest, no we're not. Most of the better scoring Defs so far this season are KPP's, and traditionally they are poison. I think they will probably fall back to their old ways, and the midsized players will come through in the end..... again!

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus, I unfortunately went Cripps >> Van Berlo at the end of round 1, which looked to be alright before Cripps' 172 this week.

Do you think it is a viable option to trade Van Berlo back to Cripps now with his -90 odd breakeven?

benocho, B/E's are largely meaningless, in terms of long term decisions. Yes, it means he gets a good price rise this week, and probably next week, but the more important question is, what do you expect him to average from here?
With Judd back, I would think he is something around 85/game, which means he will only grow around $125k from here. That's not enough for a trade.
I would only trade him back in if you believe he can average at least low 90's from Round 5 on. That is possibly a big ask, but do-able. He probably needs an injury to one of the key mids to achieve it though.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus

Hope you are well. Please see my attached team link

I have $28K in the bank. I already have N Krak and wish to get Tarrant this week.
I have deadwood in Lamb on my forward bench. If I just trade Lamb for Tarrant, I will only have a measly $1,200 in the bank.
I also have B Goodes in my backline. I could trade Salem (has a tough 3 match run and a B/E of 17) to Tarrant, then trade B Goodes to either J Kelly (Adelaide but questionable JS??) or N Brown leaving around $215,600 but still have Lamb on my forward bench. Not sure if I should be carrying a rookie with a LTI.
If I did B Goodes to say N Brown and Lamb to Tarrant would leave me with round $61,400.
Please advise which scenario sounds the best. Or if there is something I am missing.
Always welcome your comments.
Lobo

Hey Loboda

I know this question was not directed at me. But looking at your team it is a simple decision for me (if it was my team). Lamb is out for 8-12 weeks so swap Lamb for Tarrant. Goodes isn't going to get a game again this year IMO, and his BE is less than desirable. I would trade Goodes to either WhiteX or J.Kelly. Both are a risk but atleast you can bank the cash difference on Goodes to Kelly and Jake will go up in value this week. There are no options that are locks for a def rookie.

Cheers

Slip

Hey Slip

Thanks for your reply. Makes sense to get rid of a rookie who is out for quite a while.

Appreciate your comments.

Hi Lobo, I'm well enough, and I hope you are too.
I wouldn't worry about Lamb to Tarrant leaving you with no cash. $28k can't do much anyway, and it is too early to carry deadwood yet.
If Goodes isn't selected, maybe just hang onto him, and use him to have a look at Oxley's score, so you can decide between Oxley and McIntosh. If Goodes is playing maybe consider Goodes to Kelly (Ade) instead of Brown. It's a risk, as we are not sure on his JS, but he has more upside in his use than Brown.

 

[Adrenaline]

Hi rowsus

I want to say a big thank you for your advice last week. I held my nerve and didn't trade or trade newes to smith. This week I was thinking of trading

Lamb to krak
Salem to Tarrant

If Salem is not the best option who would you consider or it's not worthwhile to trade in Tarrant.

My plan is to upgrade my defence in round 6. Potentially Goodes to smith or Simpson.

Im hoping my team is linked. Thanks in advance

 

[Rowsus]

G'Day Rowsus

Hope you are keeping well. I'm looking forward to when you make the trip back home so I can meet you like the rest of the guys here.

I'm interested in your assessment of Kade Simpson to date. I have watched a lot of football (probably too much.. according to my Mrs).

It appears to me that he has been impacted by Carlton's style down the guts. Historically we have seen him go up the wing and collect a lot of points between HB and HF but this year he appears to be playing a Salem style (Yes better player), but he doesn't appear to have the luxury to run through the guts/wing and collect possessions and deliver to the forwards like years previously.

I have been considering him as an upgrade target and his price is getting juicy but at this rate I can't see him being a top 8 defender.

What is your thoughts?

G'day _Slip_, I'm well enough thanks, and I hope you are too. I'm looking forward to meeting you guys, too.
You might be right about the game plan change impacting him a little bit, and if it is just that, I will back him to adapt, and get back to something like his old consistent self, and be a 90's player. If it is age or niggles catching up with him, or Docherty adversely affecting him, he may not! I've got a feeling it is more the latter two. Age, and Docherty's emergence, rather than game plan.
It's really REALLY hard to identify the Defs we need to be targetting right now, that's for sure!

 

[Rowsus]

Hey rowsus, massive trade week this week I feel. Any help would be great. Trading McGrath for one of krak or tarrent. Not sure who is best. Or do I trade one of Nelson, Anderson, heeney or nvb for both.
Thanks in advance

Hey bender,
if I was going McGrath to one of Tarrant/Krakouer, then I would choose Krakouer. We have a more current history with Tarrant, that suggests his first 2 scores will be outliers, and he is more likely to start coughing up 50's and 60's on a regular basis than Krakouer.
If you decide to get both, I'd use NvB, unless Anderson is not selected, or in the green vest this week.

 

[Rowsus]

I have a similar question. I currently have an underperformaning TBC at R2. Should I consider upgrading him to Ryder, with the eventual aim of him becoming F6.

I could see it netting me a 25 point per round increase in score. I guess I'm answering my own question for the time being. No. TBC should put out a few better scores, and Ryder averaging 90 should drop a little lower than where he is. Plus no rucks have been injured like last year yet, so I am judging the benefit of TBC without actually having used it yet.

Asked, and answered, all by yourself!
I'd give TBC this week at least. Every Ruck that has played St Kilda this season has recorded their best, or second best score for the season. He must be worth at least a shot against Longer.

 

[Creeker]

Hey there Rowsus, seeking your opinion once again.

Not sure if this has been covered over your last 15 pages, but was wondering about your over 193 cm defenders rule.
The rule makes perfect sense to me as we try to find the running backline players.
I know we are only 4 weeks in, but my question is, do you think Champion Data have made any rule changes to even up the defensive KKP scores.
Current ranks.
1. Hooker 196 cm
2. Rance 194 cm
3. McDonald 194 cm
4. Hodge 185 cm
5. Houli 181 cm
6. McGovern 190 cm
7. Smith 193 cm
8. Pittard 186 cm
9. Hurley 193 cm
10. Docherty 185 cm

Have a feeling that whoever nails there backline early will have a big advantage this season. I have no idea who to bring in !
Of the current top 10 ranked defenders, there's only a few that I'd consider.

 

[Courtesans]

Hey there Rowsus, seeking your opinion once again.

Have a feeling that whoever nails there backline early will have a big advantage this season. I have no idea who to bring in !
Of the current top 10 ranked defenders, there's only a few that I'd consider.

Me either but biting the bullet, Shaw for all his pros and cons.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, another question on the Krak / Tarrant theme. Having read your previous posts I've eliminated some options and am left with the following:

a) Newnes to Krak (via Adamson but it messes up my D/M link with both Saad and Adamson in my defence). I'm not too keen on this option but interested in your view.
b) Anderson or Heeney to Krak (Anderson based on your feedback to Bobbie)
c) Anderson and Heeney to Krak/Tarrant (via moving a m/f premium to mids)
d) TBC to Tarrant is another 'option' but I'd be left with no ruck cover to Goldy/NN but gee I hope he gets his finger out soon.

I have no immediate plans for the cash so, based on your advice to Imcjb I'm not considering d/g Salem.

What do you reckon Rowsus? Cheers

Hi Bones,
a) I don't think it's worth disrupting your FD to fix Newnes.
b) & c) are both possibilities.
d) I think TBC is worth giving one more game, as the Saints have been giving up big Ruck scores.

c) is probably your best option, but Tarrant may not turn out to be the golden goose we are hoping for.
Cheers

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks Rowsus.

Since I posted my question I have seen Brad Scott on the telly talking about Boomer playing with the back 6 this year which I hadn't noticed while watching North play. He has only had 3 shots at goal this year and his AFL Fantasy scores are well down on previous years. He might not even be an F6!

Happy to help freowho.
He may not make F6, but he might also bounce back. I wouldn't write him off yet, even though playing back half for a lot of a game would adversely affect his scoring.

 

[Rowsus]

Just re: Heeney it's important to remember that AFL coaches unfortunately don't make their decisions with us SC coaches in mind. If Heeney underperforms or is tired/injured he will be rested regardless of his 'earning potential.'

True that, and certainly something I have been alluding to, when weighing up the difference between choosing Anderson or Heeney as a trade out choice.

 

[Rowsus]

What if you don't have Anderson

In your situation, where you have been cleverly frugal with your trades, I would wait and see if Heeney is selected/green vested. If he is playing, I would go Sinclair to Krakouer. I know Sinclair has about $50k still to make, but I think it is worthwhile, and completes your M/F link. If Heeney has the vest, or is missing, then Heeney to Krakouer.

 

[Loboda1963]

Hi Lobo, I'm well enough, and I hope you are too.
I wouldn't worry about Lamb to Tarrant leaving you with no cash. $28k can't do much anyway, and it is too early to carry deadwood yet.
If Goodes isn't selected, maybe just hang onto him, and use him to have a look at Oxley's score, so you can decide between Oxley and McIntosh. If Goodes is playing maybe consider Goodes to Kelly (Ade) instead of Brown. It's a risk, as we are not sure on his JS, but he has more upside in his use than Brown.

Thanks mate, ALWAYS appreciated

 

[Rowsus]

Hi rowsus

I want to say a big thank you for your advice last week. I held my nerve and didn't trade or trade newes to smith. This week I was thinking of trading

Lamb to krak
Salem to Tarrant

If Salem is not the best option who would you consider or it's not worthwhile to trade in Tarrant.

My plan is to upgrade my defence in round 6. Potentially Goodes to smith or Simpson.

Im hoping my team is linked. Thanks in advance

Hi Adrenaline, congratulations on your start, and for showing patience last week! It's not an easy thing to do!
Given your plan for the extra cash, Lamb/Salem to Krak/Tarrant sounds good.
If you don't need the extra $40k to go Goodes to Smith next week, then if Heeney is missing, or sub, use him instead of Salem.
Good luck