Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Slammer]

Hi Slammer,
I'm seriously considering Young instead of Tarrant. My seasons a mess, and Young coming in and doing well, would give me more pleasure than Tarrant, so why not?
I'm not sure you have enough coin to upgrade Wallis properly, so maybe start dealing with your Defs. I'm not sure who should go first. Lumumba is playing how his history said he would, so we might be silly to expect improvement. Newnes is young, and still setting his ESP (Expected Scoring Pattern), so improvement wouldn't surprise. He has been terrible, and played mainly shutdown last week. You could make argument for either, but maybe if Weller is back this week, give Newnes one more chance!

Thanks Rowsus,
Do you think upgrading both Newnes and Lumumba is an option?
Or even Lumumba to Hibberd and TBC to Blicavs?
Or do I save a trade and cash and just do the Lumumba trade?
One other option is Heeney (if he is dropped) for Tarrant via Krak and Lumumba to a Hibberd?
Apologies for all the questions but after a shocking start to the year I am a little stumped and it just seems like I am burning trades to sort my team out.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey there Rowsus, seeking your opinion once again.

Not sure if this has been covered over your last 15 pages, but was wondering about your over 193 cm defenders rule.
The rule makes perfect sense to me as we try to find the running backline players.
I know we are only 4 weeks in, but my question is, do you think Champion Data have made any rule changes to even up the defensive KKP scores.
Current ranks.
1. Hooker 196 cm
2. Rance 194 cm
3. McDonald 194 cm
4. Hodge 185 cm
5. Houli 181 cm
6. McGovern 190 cm
7. Smith 193 cm
8. Pittard 186 cm
9. Hurley 193 cm
10. Docherty 185 cm

Have a feeling that whoever nails there backline early will have a big advantage this season. I have no idea who to bring in !
Of the current top 10 ranked defenders, there's only a few that I'd consider.

Me either but biting the bullet, Shaw for all his pros and cons.

Hey Creeker and Courtesans,
It's pretty amazing isn't it. I hadn't done the exercise you've just completed, but it was in the back of my mind how well the tall Defs have been doing. It's too early to say if this is a CD shift, or a coincidence.
Hooker being at the head of the pack is one thing that has had me thinking it is just a temporary thing.
Last season Hooker opend up: 121, 111, 80, 108, 114, 69, 102, 109 - 8/814 - 102/game.
I can't tell you how many people on here were spruiking him as a must have, and there were even some doing side trades just to get him in.
History shows his last 14 games: 44, 72, 69, 73, 77, 28, 52, 92, 80, 64, 58, 76, 60, 78 - 14/ 923 - 66/game!
Rance has a consistent history just outside the top Defs, and outside of him, there haven't been many tall defs feature in end of year lists. McDonald and McGovern don't have set scoring patterns yet, and both have had a score or two that seemed high for their output. One or both might continue on, particularly McGovern with his intercept marking, but I wouldn't be sure of it. These talls certainly are muddying the water though. I can't remember another season where it has been so tough to identify even 3 Defs that should finish the season in the top 6 or 8. Certainly as Courtesans alluded to, it's making Shaw look more attractive, even with his propensity to miss games!

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks Rowsus,
Do you think upgrading both Newnes and Lumumba is an option?
Or even Lumumba to Hibberd and TBC to Blicavs?
Or do I save a trade and cash and just do the Lumumba trade?
One other option is Heeney (if he is dropped) for Tarrant via Krak and Lumumba to a Hibberd?
Apologies for all the questions but after a shocking start to the year I am a little stumped and it just seems like I am burning trades to sort my team out.

Happy to help Slammer,
I'm not convinced yet that Blicavs isn't over stretching his ability. He may have genuinely improved, or he may be on a little hot streak. With TBC set to play St Kilda, who have given up season top, or 2nd top, scores to every Ruck they've played this season, I'd give TBC one more chance. Also, I doubt Blicavs will finish top 3 for Rucks, and if he doesn't, you are just getting further behind in trades, or points.
Heeney is definitely an option, especially if dropped or vested. Lumumba to Hibberd as the only trade is not a bad option. A trade saved is a trade earnt. Maybe plan that, then if Heeney is missing/vested pull the trigger on getting Tarrant.

 

[Seedsman]

G'day Rowsus,

First time asking you a question on here so hopefully you'll be able to help me as well as you do with everyone else!

I've currently got $194,500 sitting in the bank, with TBC and Newnes as the main issues in my team. Theres a couple of trade situations which I could potentially do this week and would love your opinion on which one you think is the most beneficial.

a) Trade down Salem to Tarrant then upgrade TBC to a premo ruck
b) Trade down Goodes to Kelly then upgrade TBC to a premo ruck
c) Upgrade Newnes to Smith (poor breakeven but will be top 6 imo)
d) Downgrade Salem and Goodes to Tarrant and Kelly leaving $425,300 and upgrade TBC and potentially Newnes next week

Thanks in advance!

 

[jaca]

Rowsus, thanks for your enduring patience and desire to make us all better SCers.

 

[WindyHillWizard]

Hi Rowsus,

Clearly Goldy looks like being the #1 ruck for this year, however who do you think will be #2 (for total points) at this stage?

Have been thinking about this recently and it looks like a lottery at this stage?

Would be keen to read your thoughts and analysis.

Thanks in advance.

 

[Maso]

Hey buddy , i currently dont have krak or tarrant my question is are they both a must or is it worth doing a 1 up 1 down this week ? which with the players im looking at i would have to pass on tarrant , cash gen suicide ?

 

[Blue Dragons]

Hi Mike, congrats on your good start to the season!
At this early stage, I think it is best to get rid of non-playing rookies.
I'm with you 100% on it being hard to identify who the likely Def upgrade targets are. You could downgrade Malceski/Kelly to young Kelly, and grab Krak. It probably gives you 2 points of difference. no Tarrant, but Kelly(jnr). I am not totally sold on Tarrant, he may continue with one or two good scores, or he may fall back to the 50-60 player he has shown us in the past. People forget, that if he falls back to scoring 50's, his huge B/E now means nothing. If you forego Tarrant, McInnes should be on the bubble next week as a Fwd Rookie, and would also offer another possible point of difference for your team. He's tall, and with WC struggling for good tall stock, and Lycett stinking it up, McInnes probably doesn't need to do much to hold his place in the team.
Lots of options for you to consider. I wouldn't worry about having to field 2 of your Def Rookies. It might only be for 1 or 2 weeks.
Good luck, I hope you jump the right way.

Thanks mate!

I have to axe Kelly. He isnt getting the midfield time I was hoping for so I cant see him averaging enough to keep. So Kelly jnr will have to do if I cant find anyone else im keen on.

I agree with you on Tarrants scoring. The only thing I like about him over Krak is that while he might not score at a better pts/tog than Krak, he is playing over 90% game time compared to Kraks mid to late 60s. And like you mentioned the KPPs have been going well so far.

What are your thoughts on Lukas Webb? He didnt do a lot in his first game but first up against the Hawks isnt an easy intro. He looked very handy against Adelaide and took about 5 intercept marks.

Great job smashing through all these questions. Love reading your stuff!

 

[Brettthejett]

Hey rowsus,
Krakour or Tarrant? either will be for heeney more than likely.
Got Nat fyfe for NVB as an early upgrade due to large bank still also

Cheers mate thanks for your time

 

[Rowsus]

G'day Rowsus,

First time asking you a question on here so hopefully you'll be able to help me as well as you do with everyone else!

I've currently got $194,500 sitting in the bank, with TBC and Newnes as the main issues in my team. Theres a couple of trade situations which I could potentially do this week and would love your opinion on which one you think is the most beneficial.

a) Trade down Salem to Tarrant then upgrade TBC to a premo ruck
b) Trade down Goodes to Kelly then upgrade TBC to a premo ruck
c) Upgrade Newnes to Smith (poor breakeven but will be top 6 imo)
d) Downgrade Salem and Goodes to Tarrant and Kelly leaving $425,300 and upgrade TBC and potentially Newnes next week

Thanks in advance!

G'day Seedsman,
I'm a bit interested to know which Prem Ruck you are targetting. I hope it's Jacobs, as you already have Goldy, and Jacobs looks a clear 2nd pick to me. Let's assume it is Jacobs for now.
TBC should beat his B/E against St Kilda this week, and I'd be surprised if Jacobs did, so keep TBC to Jacobs until next week.
Newnes (B/E 113) to Smith (B/E 153) would probably cost you about the same next week, depending on whether Weller is back.
I think if Weller plays then do option d), if Weller doesn't play then do option c).
option c) still leaves the possibility of Salem or Goodes to Tarrant or Kelly. That might depend on if Goodes is picked or not.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

Clearly Goldy looks like being the #1 ruck for this year, however who do you think will be #2 (for total points) at this stage?

Have been thinking about this recently and it looks like a lottery at this stage?

Would be keen to read your thoughts and analysis.

Thanks in advance.

Hi WHW,
I think Jacobs will be a clear 2nd pick. He has a good game count record, and he does ok around the ground, and that's more important than ever this season.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey buddy , i currently dont have krak or tarrant my question is are they both a must or is it worth doing a 1 up 1 down this week ? which with the players im looking at i would have to pass on tarrant , cash gen suicide ?

Hey Maso,
I certainly don't see him as a must have, but he does have potential to turn into one, so it's a risk not to take him. He also could just easily go back to scoring 50's and 60's, and only make around $100k profit. If I was taking only one, and I just might be, it would be Krakouer, partly because of his DPP status, and just like you, I need a M/F in my Midfield to complete the link.
There is a danger that we will run dry of cash producing Rookies before we have made all the upgrades we want to, and in that regard, it might be best to err on the side of caution and get both. I assume the players you are targetting won't get out of reach, if not traded in this week. If they will, then you have a tough decision, and it might be best to forget Tarrant.

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks mate!

I have to axe Kelly. He isnt getting the midfield time I was hoping for so I cant see him averaging enough to keep. So Kelly jnr will have to do if I cant find anyone else im keen on.

I agree with you on Tarrants scoring. The only thing I like about him over Krak is that while he might not score at a better pts/tog than Krak, he is playing over 90% game time compared to Kraks mid to late 60s. And like you mentioned the KPPs have been going well so far.

What are your thoughts on Lukas Webb? He didnt do a lot in his first game but first up against the Hawks isnt an easy intro. He looked very handy against Adelaide and took about 5 intercept marks.

Great job smashing through all these questions. Love reading your stuff!

Happy to help!
I saw most of the Bull v Ade game, and Webb did look ok. Beveridge seems keen to play a young team, too which helps Webb. I'm just worried that his efforts looked a bit flattering due to Adelaide having a really bad day. It would also be different to take him, in front of Krak and Tarrant, but it may not pay off in the long run.
Tarrant's TOG was always going to be high, it's the nature of KPP Defs to have high game time.

Boy, you are right about smashing through these! There has been 17 pages in the last 2 weeks!

 

[Rowsus]

Hey rowsus,
Krakour or Tarrant? either will be for heeney more than likely.
Got Nat fyfe for NVB as an early upgrade due to large bank still also

Cheers mate thanks for your time

Hey Btj,
my vote is for Krakouer. I'm worried Tarrant will fall back to his 50 and 60's ways of the past. Even though you already have Gray up in your mids, and Lambert in your Fwds, Krak's DPP could be useful, too.
Well done on NvB to Fyfe, great use of your "spare" cash!

 

[happydays]

Happy to help!
I saw most of the Bull v Ade game, and Webb did look ok. Beveridge seems keen to play a young team, too which helps Webb. I'm just worried that his efforts looked a bit flattering due to Adelaide having a really bad day. It would also be different to take him, in front of Krak and Tarrant, but it may not pay off in the long run.
Tarrant's TOG was always going to be high, it's the nature of KPP Defs to have high game time.

Boy, you are right about smashing through these! There has been 17 pages in the last 2 weeks!

Hi Rowsus,

On Webb - and I liked him too on Sunday; if you already have Krak and your first trade of the week is Anderson -> Tarrant vis Gray DPP, would your 2nd be:
a) Sinclair to Cripps
b) Saad/Oxley to Webb

Sinclair I think was poor on Sat and is a likely vest+drop risk.
Cripps makes cash and gives you an extra 5-10 ppg over your otherwise M8.

Stuck on this one. Leaning Cripps AND get Webb next week.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

On Webb - and I liked him too on Sunday; if you already have Krak and your first trade of the week is Anderson -> Tarrant vis Gray DPP, would your 2nd be:
a) Sinclair to Cripps
b) Saad/Oxley to Webb

Sinclair I think was poor on Sat and is a likely vest+drop risk.
Cripps makes cash and gives you an extra 5-10 ppg over your otherwise M8.

Stuck on this one. Leaning Cripps AND get Webb next week.

Hi happydays,
I'm not sure I see Cripps as a trade in target.
I would be expecting him to score at somewhere around 85/game from here. That means his price will top out at around $423k, and if he went 85, 85 he gets there in 2 weeks! That's a total price rise of $129k after you trade him in this round. Here's a table to demonstrate.

As we can see in the table, if Sinclair keeps his job, and scores at 58/game, he will hit around $280k by his byes.
Webb only needs to score at 54 to better Cripps' $129k rise by the byes.
While if that happens, you have Cripps outscoring Webb by 31/game, you have also spent $177k for the priveledge. My thinking is that that $177k could be better used. There is no guarantee Cripps can/will score at 85 with Judd back, and it's better to err on the side of caution and go with the cheaper option, and use the money elsewhere.
I'd go Anderson to Tarrant and Saad to Webb.

 

[Mudflap]

Hey Btj,
my vote is for Krakouer. I'm worried Tarrant will fall back to his 50 and 60's ways of the past. Even though you already have Gray up in your mids, and Lambert in your Fwds, Krak's DPP could be useful, too.
Well done on NvB to Fyfe, great use of your "spare" cash!

Rowsus you seem to be really doubting Tarrants ability to maintain a decent scoring level. At the risk of questioning you on your own thread....... doesn't his change of role and age (compared to other rookies) give him a greater chance of scoring at a reasonable level? I am not expecting him to score 100 every week but I cant see why he cant average 80 for the rest of the season (provided he doesn't snap in half at some stage).

His job security is not in doubt at all. As long as he is fit he will be picked every week.

 

[whiteTiga2k]

Hi Rowsus

Since the backs are still so random in terms of being keepers, do you think that is it a better decision to concentrate on upgrading the mids and forwards first before the backs and leave them to later in the season? I can clearly still see that the mids and forwards still have their usual keepers like Selwood, Sloane, Dangerfield, Ward, Franklin etc. so would it be a smarter move to concentrate on them and not the backline first? Because I was thinking of bringing in Simpson and Smith soon, but unsure if I should be concentrating on Franklin, Rough or Harvey? I presume that mids should be upgraded after the rookies have peaked, so they can wait.

 

[Seedsman]

G'day Seedsman,
I'm a bit interested to know which Prem Ruck you are targetting. I hope it's Jacobs, as you already have Goldy, and Jacobs looks a clear 2nd pick to me. Let's assume it is Jacobs for now.
TBC should beat his B/E against St Kilda this week, and I'd be surprised if Jacobs did, so keep TBC to Jacobs until next week.
Newnes (B/E 113) to Smith (B/E 153) would probably cost you about the same next week, depending on whether Weller is back.
I think if Weller plays then do option d), if Weller doesn't play then do option c).
option c) still leaves the possibility of Salem or Goodes to Tarrant or Kelly. That might depend on if Goodes is picked or not.

Cheers Rowsus!

 

[BigRuss]

Hi Rowsus

Since the backs are still so random in terms of being keepers, do you think that is it a better decision to concentrate on upgrading the mids and forwards first before the backs and leave them to later in the season? I can clearly still see that the mids and forwards still have their usual keepers like Selwood, Sloane, Dangerfield, Ward, Franklin etc. so would it be a smarter move to concentrate on them and not the backline first? Because I was thinking of bringing in Simpson and Smith soon, but unsure if I should be concentrating on Franklin, Rough or Harvey? I presume that mids should be upgraded after the rookies have peaked, so they can wait.

I always look to upgrade either (a) Wherever the most points are being leaked or (b) Where the best value presents itself. Quite often they are the same upgrade.

Hold one more week of it's possible, were about 1/4 way through and barring big movers, especially in defence, we should know loosely where we sit on terms of top 10 in each position.