Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

I posted this in the Round 7 trades thread, but would love your opinion too.

After some thoughts on my trade senarios this week

Option 1

Heeney -> McKenzie
Hogan -> Jacobs

Cash left $25,500

Removes the major weakness of having to start TBC at R2, but leaves my midfield light on, with Fyfe, Pendles, Selwood, Danger, Griffen then rookies, if CEY was playing then it would not be a major problem, but having to start Cripps, Vandenberg + Anderson or Krakour is problematic.

Option 2

Hogan -> McKenzie
CEY -> Ward/JPK (probably Ward due to byes)

Cash left $56,700

Leaves TBC as R2, but that will be the next problem to be solved. Stengthens the midfield up to 6 keeper mids (yes I am now resigned to the fact that Griffen and Danger will have to be keepers, at least for now).

I want to do option 2, but feel at this stage that option 1 probably should be the proirity.

Or I take a punt and do Option 3

Hogan -> McKenzie
Heeney -> Mitchell

Cash left $137,900

Can anybody please give me your thoughts?

Cheers in advance!

Hi Deeman1,
if you're really keen to get Jacobs, I would set him all the way back to Round 14!
He plays St. Kilda this week, who he should monster, but then only has one easy game between Rounds 8 and 13.
Looking at Adelaides draw - Rucks to top score against: Team - Player, top score, (season average)
St Kilda - Cordy, 97 (44), Smith Z, 108 (82), Wood 123 (82)
GWS - no season best scores against - best performances: Jamar 3rd best score 73 (74), Naitanui =3rd best score 83 (86)
Fre - no season best scores against - not even a top 3 score against. Best performance 4th best score TBC 63 (69)
Carl - Grundy 119 (97), Longer 140 (76), Lycett 96 (67), Martin 145 (112), Naitanui (103) 86
Bye
Haw - Ryder 109 (89) next best is a 3rd best, Mumford 104 (96)
Bris - Goldy 154 (118) next best is 2 3rd bests, Lycett 60 (67), Naitanui 83 (86)
If it all follows pattern, Jacobs will only post 2 decent scores between now, and Round 13. In Round 14 his draw really opens up, in terms of teams that give up good Ruck scores.
To me, that excludes option 1.
I really wouldn't get rid of CEY unless you need to. He's averaging over 90, and should return before Sloane, so should get a decent run at it. I can easily see him peaking at about $100k higher in price than what he is now.
Option 2 gone.
Option 3 isn't terrible, depending on your outlook on Mitchell. At least he won't lose money!
Of those 3 options, I'd go option 3.

 

[thommus]

G'day mate
How does Dangerfield go with Sloane out of the side?
Cheers

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus.

What are your thoughts on Tom Mitchell?

I am mighty tempted to bring him in this week before he has a big jump in price.

Cheers mate.

Hi BB,
I think there is little downside to getting him this week. Yes, he has played 2 "weaker" teams, but we don't need him to maintain that scoring level to be considered a good pick. If things go wrong, yes, we lose a trade, but we shouldn't lose any money. I think he's worth the risk, though I'd be thinking twice if he was $50-$60k higher in price.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Row,

Im stuck on what I should do this week / next week.

Potential outs are:
McIntosh
Vandenberg
Hogan

Potential ins are:
McKenzie
Lever
Mitchell
Rocky (in 1-2 weeks)

My first issue is I only have 20 trades left so I might need to save some.

I am not really sold on McKenzie or Lever as good picks but will the cash made on their increase and selling McIntosh be needed later on? Is it too good to pass up? There may not be too many more defensive cows to come.

I can go Vanders to Mitchell with only one trade used which will leave me with only $100 to spare. Hes a jet and can easily average keeper levels..but there is still some doubt about js / vest issues although Heeney out helps him.

In a week or two I would really like to get Rocky as long as im happy with his form.

Round 7 ($76k)
Hogan - Mitchell
McIntosh - McKenzie

Round 8 ($121,400)
Vanders - Rocky

They are my thoughts at this stage. Im not sure if that last trade would work out money wise. If it does then that leaves me with 17 trades left.

Would love your opinion on what you think is the best way to go. Thanks mate!

Edit: just had another idea..

Out:
Hogan
McIntosh

In:
Yeo
McKenzie

Then next week Vanders for Rocky (and maybe Lumumba for Smith)

My reasoning for Yeo is that his last 3 games he has played in the midfield and played well. If he moves back again then he probably wont be a good pick but if he stays there I think he can be a keeper. Weighing him up against Mitchell he has better js and I already have 4.5 keepers in the forward line (Bell being the .5) compared to probably 2 keepers in the back line.

Sorry about the length of the msg!

Hi Mike,
congratulations on doing so well, so far! You certainly are trading at World Record pace, but given your ranking that is not a bad thing!
There is a potential there for the Cash Cows to either dry up, or appear too late for us to complete our teams in a timely manner. For that reason, you will probably need at least one of Lever or McKenzie, just to be sure the cash is still rolling in.
Mitchell has the potential to split some of the top Ranked teams. Taking him, or not taking him could cause some separation, one way or the other. My thoughts are, it is safer to take him, and hope for the best, than to not take him, and hope he's a curse on those that do. Because of his low B/E he comes with a near built-in exit plan, as he shouldn't lose value while you assess the decision. I think it's much better to take him, and have to deal with it later if it doesn't work, than not take him, and try work out how you might bridge that POD against you, when his price is over $500k. I have a theory about Mitchell, which is totally groundless, but seems to fit him to my way of thinking. I will send it to you in a PM later.
I like your thinking on Yeo, and it is really good to be thinking outside the box, when you are positioned where you are. The one thing I would say is, Scott Selwood should be back in a week or two, and I would be worried that pushes Yeo back into his former poor scoring role. You could take a similar approach with Yeo, as you might with Mitchell, and bring him in, but have an exit plan. Luckily he is a Def, so the exit plan usually has a cheaper price tag attached to it.
Many of us will be thinking/hoping of a Cripps to Rocky trade next week, with only needing to pay about a $10-$15k. It means we only get to see one more game from Rocky before his price bottoms out. I'd love another game or two, just to see that he is really back, but I will risk the swap myself. I can't see him scoring less than Cripps going into the season, so even if he doesn't score at 110+, it only costs a trade.
Lumumba to Smith is really interesting, isn't it? Is Smith a fallen Prem, or is he just coming off a spike season? Another one of those things that will separate teams. Some that have him want to be rid of him, some that don't are rubbing their hands together at his price.
To me it looks like you are faced with McI to McK, then choosing if you run with the popular pick, and take Mitchell, or tread your own path, and take Yeo. As risky as he is, Mitchell is safer, but Yeo's reward, if he works out to be a good Def Keeper, might overshadow Mitchell's. It's a tough call, but given you already have 5 or 6 POD's doing great for you, you may want to take the safer path this time. Remember, it can't be judged as a success or failure in the next 3 or 4 games, but how it affected your whole season.
Good luck, I hope you continue your climb up the rankings!

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus, I've kept faith with the mantra: "Don't trade your premiums, don't trade your premiums, hold on". Well, I've had enough - I want desperately to trade Smith out. I bear him a grudge because I traded him in at his peak for Bartel via dpp, only to see points and dollars evaporate each week. But I see you are advising to trade him in. Arggggh.

I've done some homework. He has only averaged more than 86 against two opponents - Collingwood (102) and North (100). Who did he play in the first two weeks, and will not play again this year? I'll let you join up the dots. We've been deceived by an early round bubble. OK, the stats sample is a bit small for meaningful averages, but that raises another issue -
should you get 'premium' status on the back of one good year?

Looking at the HS stats for last week ( Adelaide v GCS) he was 30% down on his season average for no. of kicks, metres and uncontested possessions. I didn't see the game but that suggests to me that he is now being anchored in the backline somewhere.

So, should I save the trade and keep reciting the mantra? Or Thurlow is tempting - he's got about $80K growth in him, is scoring well and is unlikely to get a tag given the strong Geelong backline. I can then upgrade him later when he has restored some cash.

Your advice would be much appreciated.

Cattleherder, you actually raise one of my pet hates. No, you shouldn't get labelled a Prem on the back of one season. I think we do it, just because it's easy.
I know he has cost you dollars and points, but I would hold him.
I would be really surprised if Thurlow can finish in the top 8 Defs after playing only 14 games in three seasons. The only thing worse than trading out a player, that then goes on to perform well, is replacing him with a player you only need to trade out again later anyway.
If you're deadset on ridding yourself of Smith, then you should just do it. It does seem like a badweek to do it though. Sloane out and playing St Kilda would seem to say give him one more try, at least!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus. I am really stumped this week - the Sloane injury has thrown my trade plans. I have $227,200 and 23 trades left. I'm not keen on spending too much on replacing Sloane but want to avoid bringing in a "stop gap" player (e.g. Tom Mitchell) at this stage. Is there any merit on just keeping him (especially if CEY returns) and hope he returns after his bye?

So after a bit of a tinker I could actually just use one trade this week to upgrade a Hogan to Bont ($58K left) or Goddard (only $8K left). I could move a forward to the mids via Krak to cover Sloane until I decide what to do with him. Next week I could trade Heeney to Lever via McKenzie to mids (gives a handy DPP). This means holding onto KMac though at the risk he may lose a bit of value.

Another option is to trade Hogan to a midfielder via Krak but I'm not sure if I could make the most of the $545K I would have (Priddis, Dangerfield, Neale?) Forwards obviously present a bit more value.

Any help would be much appreciated. I think I am out of overall contention (!) so leagues are my focus. Much appreciated.

Hi Bobbie,
with League taking precedence, then saving trades become important. That means hold Sloane, unless it will definitely compromise your chances of finishing top 8 in your main League. I would expect Sloane back in Round 12, after Adelaide's bye. I would take Goddard before Bont, even though there is a risk he could become a HFF when players come back. I don't think KMc will lose value, well not too much anyway. His pricing reflects a 52/game player, and I think that's about where he is at, or even just higher. I think you can carry him a Little longer, he may even surprise us, and throw an 80 in this week or next week!

 

[Bobbie]

Hi Bobbie,
with League taking precedence, then saving trades become important. That means hold Sloane, unless it will definitely compromise your chances of finishing top 8 in your main League. I would expect Sloane back in Round 12, after Adelaide's bye. I would take Goddard before Bont, even though there is a risk he could become a HFF when players come back. I don't think KMc will lose value, well not too much anyway. His pricing reflects a 52/game player, and I think that's about where he is at, or even just higher. I think you can carry him a Little longer, he may even surprise us, and throw an 80 in this week or next week!

Thanks for your reasoning Rowsus - much needed! I was actually considering trading Sloane to Priddis but I think I will go with my gut and hold him. It just sits better with me for some reason.

How does this sound:

This week - Hogan > Mitchell ($140K left)

Next week - Heeney > Lever (via McKenzie) & V'berg > Rocky. I should have around $80 - $100K left.

Reading your thoughts about Mitchell above, I think he is worth the risk.

 

[Blue Dragons]

Hi Mike,
congratulations on doing so well, so far! You certainly are trading at World Record pace, but given your ranking that is not a bad thing!
There is a potential there for the Cash Cows to either dry up, or appear too late for us to complete our teams in a timely manner. For that reason, you will probably need at least one of Lever or McKenzie, just to be sure the cash is still rolling in.
Mitchell has the potential to split some of the top Ranked teams. Taking him, or not taking him could cause some separation, one way or the other. My thoughts are, it is safer to take him, and hope for the best, than to not take him, and hope he's a curse on those that do. Because of his low B/E he comes with a near built-in exit plan, as he shouldn't lose value while you assess the decision. I think it's much better to take him, and have to deal with it later if it doesn't work, than not take him, and try work out how you might bridge that POD against you, when his price is over $500k. I have a theory about Mitchell, which is totally groundless, but seems to fit him to my way of thinking. I will send it to you in a PM later.
I like your thinking on Yeo, and it is really good to be thinking outside the box, when you are positioned where you are. The one thing I would say is, Scott Selwood should be back in a week or two, and I would be worried that pushes Yeo back into his former poor scoring role. You could take a similar approach with Yeo, as you might with Mitchell, and bring him in, but have an exit plan. Luckily he is a Def, so the exit plan usually has a cheaper price tag attached to it.
Many of us will be thinking/hoping of a Cripps to Rocky trade next week, with only needing to pay about a $10-$15k. It means we only get to see one more game from Rocky before his price bottoms out. I'd love another game or two, just to see that he is really back, but I will risk the swap myself. I can't see him scoring less than Cripps going into the season, so even if he doesn't score at 110+, it only costs a trade.
Lumumba to Smith is really interesting, isn't it? Is Smith a fallen Prem, or is he just coming off a spike season? Another one of those things that will separate teams. Some that have him want to be rid of him, some that don't are rubbing their hands together at his price.
To me it looks like you are faced with McI to McK, then choosing if you run with the popular pick, and take Mitchell, or tread your own path, and take Yeo. As risky as he is, Mitchell is safer, but Yeo's reward, if he works out to be a good Def Keeper, might overshadow Mitchell's. It's a tough call, but given you already have 5 or 6 POD's doing great for you, you may want to take the safer path this time. Remember, it can't be judged as a success or failure in the next 3 or 4 games, but how it affected your whole season.
Good luck, I hope you continue your climb up the rankings!

Thanks Row!

I have tried not trading but while I am at a good ranking I figure I may as well go for it.

Thats a good point on Mitchell with the exit strategy. Worst case its just a trade lost but no money. Yeo could definitely be a cheap keeper but like you said Selwood coming back and Rosa too might make it harder for him to squeeze in there.

Whenever I have a decision like this I tend to go for the POD choice (picked Jobe over Sloane when everyone got him) but might go the safer option this time.

And still 6 rounds in I have no idea what defenders to get! If Oxley and Saad keep pumping out a good score every other week they can stay.

You dont think Cripps can be a keeper? Im loving the way he is playing and the stats he is getting. Unless his last few games have been a hot streak I can see him staying in my team all year.

Thanks again for the reply. Very helpful and insightful as always!

 

[Johnsy44]

Hey Rowsus, just a quick 2 questions. If i am going for ranking and not so much league how many prems do you think we should have before the byes? Also (if Glenn is named) should i trade Heeney - Glenn and then get Lever next week or should i trade Heeney - Lever and do 2 upgrades next week?
Would love your thoughts. Thanks Johnsy

 

[GingerNinja]

Hi Mike,
congratulations on doing so well, so far! You certainly are trading at World Record pace, but given your ranking that is not a bad thing!
There is a potential there for the Cash Cows to either dry up, or appear too late for us to complete our teams in a timely manner. For that reason, you will probably need at least one of Lever or McKenzie, just to be sure the cash is still rolling in.
Mitchell has the potential to split some of the top Ranked teams. Taking him, or not taking him could cause some separation, one way or the other. My thoughts are, it is safer to take him, and hope for the best, than to not take him, and hope he's a curse on those that do. Because of his low B/E he comes with a near built-in exit plan, as he shouldn't lose value while you assess the decision. I think it's much better to take him, and have to deal with it later if it doesn't work, than not take him, and try work out how you might bridge that POD against you, when his price is over $500k. I have a theory about Mitchell, which is totally groundless, but seems to fit him to my way of thinking. I will send it to you in a PM later.
I like your thinking on Yeo, and it is really good to be thinking outside the box, when you are positioned where you are. The one thing I would say is, Scott Selwood should be back in a week or two, and I would be worried that pushes Yeo back into his former poor scoring role. You could take a similar approach with Yeo, as you might with Mitchell, and bring him in, but have an exit plan. Luckily he is a Def, so the exit plan usually has a cheaper price tag attached to it.
Many of us will be thinking/hoping of a Cripps to Rocky trade next week, with only needing to pay about a $10-$15k. It means we only get to see one more game from Rocky before his price bottoms out. I'd love another game or two, just to see that he is really back, but I will risk the swap myself. I can't see him scoring less than Cripps going into the season, so even if he doesn't score at 110+, it only costs a trade.
Lumumba to Smith is really interesting, isn't it? Is Smith a fallen Prem, or is he just coming off a spike season? Another one of those things that will separate teams. Some that have him want to be rid of him, some that don't are rubbing their hands together at his price.
To me it looks like you are faced with McI to McK, then choosing if you run with the popular pick, and take Mitchell, or tread your own path, and take Yeo. As risky as he is, Mitchell is safer, but Yeo's reward, if he works out to be a good Def Keeper, might overshadow Mitchell's. It's a tough call, but given you already have 5 or 6 POD's doing great for you, you may want to take the safer path this time. Remember, it can't be judged as a success or failure in the next 3 or 4 games, but how it affected your whole season.
Good luck, I hope you continue your climb up the rankings!

Gday Rowsus,

Hope you're travelling well. Having the same T Mitchell concerns as everyone else this week. Rocky next week is as good as done for me along with the other 99% of the supercoach community but I'm having some issues jumping forward in the rankings. Missing Salems 117 last week for Hogan was a loophole mistake that cost me a valuable 50 odd. So.......

Your thoughts on Edwards (Tigers) and Motlop (Cats) as potential PODs leading into the byes (as opposed to the planned trading out of each bye round). Clark/Salem/Hogan/Tarrant making up the numbers down forward so what was an original plan to grab Franklin has turned into a quest to find some consistent guys to help drag the ranking up (from 3013 - 26 Trades & 200K).

Also, do you have any wisdom in regard to B Smith (Adel) now that Sloane has gone down. I think the Crows originally were planning to rotate him through and off the wing depending on the opposition and my gut tells me that Scott Thompson is bound to be managed over the season (even after his current numbers). Is Smith looking promising or do you think the Dangerman is due to be thrown into the middle and gain the points up for grabs.

PS - Great work on the Brownlow Thread. My numbers and projections tell me that Armitage has some quality upside in the betting to come with his team mates not setting the world on fire. Sadly, he's not a stand out type (Priddis, Swan, Judd, Ablett, Danger) so he may not get the recognition come the count. For mine, Fyfe will have his work cut out with Neale, Mundy etc taking some votes along with Pav turning back the clock every few games. Let the countdown begin!

 

[Rowsus]

Seems like quite a risk in NOT trading Hogan this week. With a B/E of 77, he's every chance to go backwards also.

I do have another question, what do you believe is the best strategy for handling players like Heeney? I want to trade out a MID rookie this week (as part of my 1-up, 1-down trades), and ordinarily it would be Vandenberg (he's already made $200k, and his B/E is 61). However, I have a little cash in the bank, and can afford to keep him and trade out Heeney instead.

I suppose the question is, is there any value in trading out Heeney, or do you have to accept that he'll be stuck on your bench for the next couple of months doing nothing?

There certainly is a risk in not trading Hogan out, but sometimes you need to ask yourself, what can he average in the next 4 or 5 weeks? rather than what is his B/E? B/E is certainly a good risk indicator, and that being the case, Hogan sitting on a B/E of 77 is definitely in the higher risk catagory. It just comes down to each Coaches opinion as to what he might average in the coming weeks, rather than what he might score this week.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, I'd love your opinion on Boomer and Bennell. Probably getting one this week and can't decide who I'd rather. I think Bennell has more potential to average higher, especially over the next few weeks. He has averaged 95 the last 3 seasons playing predominantly half forward so surely midfield time will boost his average up to 100? Boomer I like as a POD and still wish I'd gotten him last year after his bye when he was cheap and was huge over the back half of the year.

Also, any love for Stevie J? If you'd told me pre season I could have gotten him at sub 450 I'd have jumped without second guessing but now not so sure.

Thanks mate.

Hi ZP,
Bennell - I'm a bit worried about two things with him. His game count in the last 2 seasons is only 15, and he's a FTB and GC are struggling a bit. Certainly with Ablett and Swallow being out help his cause. If you think he can play 15 games from here, and won't be too badly affected by GC's "decline", he's definitely an option. I wouldn't pay over $500k for him, and he will probably creep over that barrier this week, and may stay their for 2 or 3 weeks.
Boomer - Averaging 97 without his his first round 54. Around $75k cheaper than his opening price, and his history is a good 5/game higher than Bennell's. Doesn't necessarily need North to dominate to score well.
SJ - he migh struggle to score the 108+ you'd want from a Mid only, if he was M/F he'd be worth the risk at the price. Not for me.

 

[Deeman1]

Hi Deeman1,
if you're really keen to get Jacobs, I would set him all the way back to Round 14!
He plays St. Kilda this week, who he should monster, but then only has one easy game between Rounds 8 and 13.
Looking at Adelaides draw - Rucks to top score against: Team - Player, top score, (season average)
St Kilda - Cordy, 97 (44), Smith Z, 108 (82), Wood 123 (82)
GWS - no season best scores against - best performances: Jamar 3rd best score 73 (74), Naitanui =3rd best score 83 (86)
Fre - no season best scores against - not even a top 3 score against. Best performance 4th best score TBC 63 (69)
Carl - Grundy 119 (97), Longer 140 (76), Lycett 96 (67), Martin 145 (112), Naitanui (103) 86
Bye
Haw - Ryder 109 (89) next best is a 3rd best, Mumford 104 (96)
Bris - Goldy 154 (118) next best is 2 3rd bests, Lycett 60 (67), Naitanui 83 (86)
If it all follows pattern, Jacobs will only post 2 decent scores between now, and Round 13. In Round 14 his draw really opens up, in terms of teams that give up good Ruck scores.
To me, that excludes option 1.
I really wouldn't get rid of CEY unless you need to. He's averaging over 90, and should return before Sloane, so should get a decent run at it. I can easily see him peaking at about $100k higher in price than what he is now.
Option 2 gone.
Option 3 isn't terrible, depending on your outlook on Mitchell. At least he won't lose money!
Of those 3 options, I'd go option 3.

Thank-you very much for the advice Rowsus.

I think my trade plans will be pretty dependant on whether or not Simpson gets up and plays this week. If he does not play, then I will probably have to upgrade McIntosh to Birchall, rather than play all of Oxley, McIntosh and McKenzie.

Once again thanks for your advice, much appreciated.

 

[Rowsus]

Good morning Row, haven't been in here for quite some time but thought I'd ask you a question in regards to Mr. Brownlow (Priddis)
Do you think he will be a top 10 Mid from here onwards? If yes, this is probably the best time to bring him in I assume?
His first 4 rounds have been quite mediocre but he went bang bang in his last 2!
Did something change or perhaps just a form thingy?
Thanks mate!

Hey Row i was wondering who would you choose out of Beams and Priddis. Beams who seems to be able to go big more so but has the no.1 tag now or Priddis who is more durable but over 30(byes not counted)? Note around i am around 20k and need to make ground.

Hey SC_23, I think Beams is more likely to average 110+ from here on in than Priddis, and of the 2, I would rather pay the extra $10k and get Beams. Historically, he has a higher game and season ceiling than Priddis, too.

I will answer this for Rowsus.
Hell yes barring injury.
His first 4 rounds have been ok, hasnt set the world on fire, but to be fair, your JPK's, Selwood's, Watson's etc havent set the world on fire too.
I just look at his stats, 3rd in the comp in contested possessions, 4th in the comp in clearances, 1st in the comp in tackles, 2nd in comp in centre clearances, 5th in the comp in disposals, equal 4th in goal assists.
Now looking at that data, I have a feeling he will be in top 5 at seasons end.
All those stats get rewarded in this game and if he keeps it up I cant see why he cant be a top 5.

Can't deny his stats are pretty amazing but he currently has 45 kicks and 127 handballs. In his last 3 games he has had 18 kicks and 70 handballs and is likely why his scores are probably 20-30 points lower than what they should be. If he could get a handful more effective kicks and drop a handful handballs, he would add an extra 100+ meters gained and his scores would probably get those 20-30 missing points.

If he was just average by foot, he'd be in top 3 SC wise. Unfortunately he's below average. A low risk pickup, but not for me

It's very important not to assume because Priddis' numbers and rankings are high in some key stats, that his SC will soon turn into good scores.
Look at JPK in 2013 - 46 more CP's than Libba, who had the 2nd most at 319! He was 14th for possessions, but less than 3 possessions/game behind Pendles in 3rd place on 29.9, 2nd in Clearances, and 9th in Centre Clearances, averaged 5 tackles/games, which was 1.8/game off 3rd place. His DE was down at 65.6%, and his K:H was 1:1.6. All of this equated to a SC average of 105.4
Priddis' DE is currently 72.1%, and his K:H is 1:2.8!!! You can be sure of one thing, as his K:H inevitably improves, his DE will fall. Brownlow Medalists fall on average 6/game in SC the year after their Brownlow. Some more, some less, but if Priddis falls 6 on last years numbers he will average around 108.6 from here. That happens to be very close to what he is priced at! He's no bargain, unlikely to average 110+ from here, but should be a bit of a POD.

 

[jaca]

On your point re: Beams, would you take Selwood over both (despite BE)

 

[anfa18]

It's very important not to assume because Priddis' numbers and rankings are high in some key stats, that his SC will soon turn into good scores.Look at JPK in 2013 - 46 more CP's than Libba, who had the 2nd most at 319! He was 14th for possessions, but less than 3 possessions/game behind Pendles in 3rd place on 29.9, 2nd in Clearances, and 9th in Centre Clearances, averaged 5 tackles/games, which was 1.8/game off 3rd place. His DE was down at 65.6%, and his K:H was 1:1.6. All of this equated to a SC average of 105.4
Priddis' DE is currently 72.1%, and his K:H is 1:2.8!!! You can be sure of one thing, as his K:H inevitably improves, his DE will fall. Brownlow Medalists fall on average 6/game in SC the year after their Brownlow. Some more, some less, but if Priddis falls 6 on last years numbers he will average around 108.6 from here. That happens to be very close to what he is priced at! He's no bargain, unlikely to average 110+ from here, but should be a bit of a POD.

I had no idea Brownlow medalists fell that far, I guess it does make sense though. Having an up year to win the medal, followed by a somewhat natural regression to the norm and added attention from opposition.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,
Just wondering if you can assist in my train wreck of a season.
It is just spiralling out of control with poor form and injuries to every player I have.
My main concerns are Broadbent who I thought would be a decent POD after Hinkley at the start of the season said he would get more midfield time. (only one ton to his name and leaking cash)
Sloane who as a Ablett replacement is now out for 4-6 weeks
TBC as R2 who was just a bad choice on my behalf and not sure why I picked him.
Throw in Heeney who is out and may struggle to get back, CEY likewise, Saad now out, McIntosh who has not made enough.
All other rookies are starting to get to their peak as far as cash generation is concerned eg, Hogan, Vandenburg
Only have 21 trades left, $32K and winless in one of my leagues.
Where to next?
Do I look at trading Sloane? Offloading Broadbent or finding cash to upgrade TBC?
Have thought about seriously downgrading Broadbent to Lever early (already have McKenzie) for cash but would leave me with only Hibberd, Docherty, MJ in backline plus 3 rookies with Saad on bench.
Then look at Sloane for Treloar/Goddard and try and hope Rocky drops to $450 and get him next week via Heeney
Still leaves my weak backline and TBC but I am just stuck for options and thought that risking the backline is the best place to do it I guess.
Or do I keep Sloane and Broadbent (stick with Premiums) and go McIntosh for Lever and TBC for Grundy?
Any suggestions appreciated..help!!!

Hi Slammer,
firstly Sloane and Broady. I would think you would keep them both, if League has become your focus, and your not too far out of touch with the 8 in your main League. If you still want to finish as high as possible in the Rankings, then I would trade, particularly Sloane. While Broadbent may not end up being a D6 Keeper, his record before this season suggests he can bounce back a bit. Even if he can drag his average to 78 for the season, which would be his worst in the last 4 seasons, he will average 82 from here. Not enough to make you happy, but enough get some reasonable points, and restore some of his value, before you upgrade him later on.
When your season has gone to hell so quickly, and so early, you have to make some compromises. I think you have to accept you probably won't reach Martin as your R2. I think you should either bite the bullet, and go TBC to Blicavs, who doesn't really rely on Rucking to score, it's just a bonus, or wear TBC until Jacobs has bottomed out, which unfortunately looks like it won't be until about Rnd 14. Grundy, Maric and Mumford are also reachable, but have their own concerns to deal with, injury history, Witts coming in etc. It would be nice if TBC could slot into your Fwd line, but I think you need his dollars more than his 65-70 point scores.
I think the other compromise you make is in your back line, and just live with poor scores there for now. The Rookies are outscoring the Smith/Simpson types some weeks anyway! Concentrate on making improvements you can have more confidence in for now.
Just spitt-balling here, but what about:
Sloane out, McKenzie up, Lever in - Then you can loophole McKenzie and Krakouer, and Lever and McIntosh in the backline.
TBC out Blicavs in, giving you a balance of $239k. for next week.
Then in Round 8, use the worst of Hogan or Vdb to get Rocky, and still have plenty of cash left over.
You probably wear a small loss on Hogan this week, but I think he's a chance between now and his bye, to post a score that might kick start his money making again. It also brings Lever in early, which I hate doing, but it fixes TBC, and gives you cash for the next 2 or 3 weeks.
If you decide League is your focus, keep Sloane, and use Hogan or Vdb this week.
Good luck, I hope it turns around!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi row

I was wondering if you could assist me. It is not a big problem. I was hoping to trade Macintosh for Mckenzie this week. Next week trade in lever for someone not sure who and vanderberg for a jpk or rocky. I will hold Sloane as I feel he will return early but bc he will be sitting on my bench I want to try and fit another upgrade in the midfield. Goodes could go but I would prefer to hold him and hope he makes some cash.

My question is who do I trade out for lever.?

Thanks for your help row

Hi Ad,
just on Sloane, be cautious if he comes back early. Marc Murphy came back early in 2013 from the same injury, and only score 54 and 75 in his first 2 games back, after averaging 102 before he got injured. Murphy only averaged 75 in his first 5 games back from that injury, then regained form/confidence.
If you want Lever next week, you may just have to trade Miller or CEY early, though I must admit, Goodes would be preferable. In fact, I would use Goodes this week to trade out, if he misses the game, or gets the green vest.

 

[Rowsus]

G'day mate
How does Dangerfield go with Sloane out of the side?
Cheers

G'day mate,
there's really not enough game to make a meaningful analysis. Sloane has only missed 6 games since 2011, and Danger scored:
2013 Rnd 19 - 111 v Port
2012 Rnd 22 - 106 v Melb
2011 Rnd 6 ---- 94 v StK
2011 Rnd 5 --- 104 v Carl
2011 Rnd 4 ---- 60 v Port
2011 Rnd 3 ---- 71 v Fre
I'd say the sample is too small, but on pure figures, he scores less with Sloane out.

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks for your reasoning Rowsus - much needed! I was actually considering trading Sloane to Priddis but I think I will go with my gut and hold him. It just sits better with me for some reason.

How does this sound:

This week - Hogan > Mitchell ($140K left)

Next week - Heeney > Lever (via McKenzie) & V'berg > Rocky. I should have around $80 - $100K left.

Reading your thoughts about Mitchell above, I think he is worth the risk.

They look ok to me.