Opinion Questions For Rowsus
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Hey Johnsy44,
Glenn not named, so problem solved. Where possible try to avoid trading in Rookies before their bubble, as Glenn proved this week. As to the number of Prems you "should have" before the byes, there isn't a hard and fast answer. Depending on who and what you call a Prem, and if you have loaded the top end first ie M1/2/3/4 or the bottom end first M/D 4/5/6 between 16 to 19.
Glenn not named, so problem solved. Where possible try to avoid trading in Rookies before their bubble, as Glenn proved this week. As to the number of Prems you "should have" before the byes, there isn't a hard and fast answer. Depending on who and what you call a Prem, and if you have loaded the top end first ie M1/2/3/4 or the bottom end first M/D 4/5/6 between 16 to 19.
Gday GN,
I don't like Edwards. Those that have him already have done well, but I wouldn't want to trade him now. He has a pretty established scoring pattern, and his scores this season are a little high for the possessions he's getting, so I don't think he can maintain it through the season. If you're sold on going a POD, and choosing between those 2, I'd go Motlop. He's still establishing his scoring pattern, so has an upside to possibly reach high 90's or low 100's, plus he's about 10% cheaper.
I can't shed anymore light on Smith than anyone else, unfortunately. I think he will come good, and this could be the week, with Sloane out, and playing the Saints. I think those frustrated owners that are talking of trading him out should hang on, for this week at least, and probably longer. He may not reach last seasons level, but at the price he is getting too, there seems to be only a small downside in taking a risk on him.
As to Fyfe in the Brownlow, I think you are right, there is a possibility he loses votes to their strong list. It's part of the reason Range has such a wide spread on him already (High 15, low 6), where as others like Armitage have a short gap (high 10, low 7). We must keep in mind that Fyfe is traditionally a strong voter, and that is something that can mean something, when you are working out your selections. Armitage will probably play in too few winning games to be a realistic winning chance on the night.
I don't like Edwards. Those that have him already have done well, but I wouldn't want to trade him now. He has a pretty established scoring pattern, and his scores this season are a little high for the possessions he's getting, so I don't think he can maintain it through the season. If you're sold on going a POD, and choosing between those 2, I'd go Motlop. He's still establishing his scoring pattern, so has an upside to possibly reach high 90's or low 100's, plus he's about 10% cheaper.
I can't shed anymore light on Smith than anyone else, unfortunately. I think he will come good, and this could be the week, with Sloane out, and playing the Saints. I think those frustrated owners that are talking of trading him out should hang on, for this week at least, and probably longer. He may not reach last seasons level, but at the price he is getting too, there seems to be only a small downside in taking a risk on him.
As to Fyfe in the Brownlow, I think you are right, there is a possibility he loses votes to their strong list. It's part of the reason Range has such a wide spread on him already (High 15, low 6), where as others like Armitage have a short gap (high 10, low 7). We must keep in mind that Fyfe is traditionally a strong voter, and that is something that can mean something, when you are working out your selections. Armitage will probably play in too few winning games to be a realistic winning chance on the night.
Selwood's overall record speaks for itself, but I am a little worried he's playing a bit too much like Cotchin. Too many of his possessions are going short and sideways/backwards, possibly in some attempt to bring team mates into the game. I'd love to have access to his metres gained stats for comparison! I'd also love it, if he just took a game by the scruff of the neck, like he used to!
Selwood's break even is 147, and his recent record against Sydney reads:
Rnd 11 2014 - 90 point loss - 98
Rnd 22 2013 - 44 point win - 131
Rnd 4 2013 - 19 point win - 163
Rnd 23 2012 - 34 point win - 111
Rnd 13 2012 - 6 point loss - 101
Rnd 23 2011 - 7 point loss - 105
Rnd 4 2011 - 27 point win - 95
Given there are question marks on his form, and his hand, and Geelong are expected to lose to Sydney this week, I would not trade Selwood in this week, but in general, my preference order would be: Selwood, Beams, Priddis.
Selwood's break even is 147, and his recent record against Sydney reads:
Rnd 11 2014 - 90 point loss - 98
Rnd 22 2013 - 44 point win - 131
Rnd 4 2013 - 19 point win - 163
Rnd 23 2012 - 34 point win - 111
Rnd 13 2012 - 6 point loss - 101
Rnd 23 2011 - 7 point loss - 105
Rnd 4 2011 - 27 point win - 95
Given there are question marks on his form, and his hand, and Geelong are expected to lose to Sydney this week, I would not trade Selwood in this week, but in general, my preference order would be: Selwood, Beams, Priddis.
Happy to help.
Unfortunately, I don't have access to H2A numbers. He is definitely killing them, but it certainly isn't equating to SC scores. I watched the whole game last week, and I thought on last years scoring he might have got a 130-140, but I think his H2A for the season might be down around 25-27%, and that's really costing him points.
Unfortunately, I don't have access to H2A numbers. He is definitely killing them, but it certainly isn't equating to SC scores. I watched the whole game last week, and I thought on last years scoring he might have got a 130-140, but I think his H2A for the season might be down around 25-27%, and that's really costing him points.
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I've been thinking about the same question and one answer, who may not appeal to everyone, Matthew Wright. It seems to take him from a fringe player to an onballer. He scored the majority of his 69 points last week in the fourth quarter after Sloane was subbed out. The comparison with Rowsus's numbers, with an even stronger caveat on sample size:
2013 Rnd 19 - 108 v Port
2012 Rnd 22 - 110 v Melb
2011 Rnd 6 ---- 87 v StK
2011 Rnd 5 --- dnp v Carl
2011 Rnd 4 ---- 25 v Port (vested?)
2011 Rnd 3 ---- dnp v Fre
The recent data are consistent with scoring more when Sloane is absent.
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Hey mate,
Who goes this week out of Vandenberg and McIntosh???
McIntosh has a BE in the 30's where's Vanders is in the 60's and could struggle against the Hawks this week.
These are my trade plans/options....
OPTION 1
Round 7
IN - Gray, McKenzie
OUT - Vandenberg, Hogan (via Goddard DPP)
(Can loophole DMac score with McIntosh)
(Can loophole Tarrant's score tonight)
$162,400
Round 8
IN - Rockliff, Lever
OUT - Salem/Clark (via DPP Gray to FWD), McIntosh
OPTION 2
Round 7
IN - Gray, McKenzie
OUT - McIntosh, Hogan
(No loophole options)
$82,500
Round 8
IN - Rockliff, Lever
OUT - Vandenberg, ................ (someone)
Cheers mate
Who goes this week out of Vandenberg and McIntosh???
McIntosh has a BE in the 30's where's Vanders is in the 60's and could struggle against the Hawks this week.
These are my trade plans/options....
OPTION 1
Round 7
IN - Gray, McKenzie
OUT - Vandenberg, Hogan (via Goddard DPP)
(Can loophole DMac score with McIntosh)
(Can loophole Tarrant's score tonight)
$162,400
Round 8
IN - Rockliff, Lever
OUT - Salem/Clark (via DPP Gray to FWD), McIntosh
OPTION 2
Round 7
IN - Gray, McKenzie
OUT - McIntosh, Hogan
(No loophole options)
$82,500
Round 8
IN - Rockliff, Lever
OUT - Vandenberg, ................ (someone)
Cheers mate
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Fair comment Rowsus, I have been all over this comparison. Unsure if Murphy has as much ticker as Sloane does though, Murphy has always been that outside sort of midfielder, whereas Sloane does alot of hard work in and under.
Just out of curiousity, could you give me an example of a player that has come back early from broken ribs and dominated/struggled upon his return?
I dont think Rockliff is a must have as everybody is making him out to be.
Next week he will drop in price, hasn't cracked the ton yet this year, in 2 full games, I think Barlow would be a better get than Rockliff yet no one is mentioning him. Proven scorer as well.
Just out of curiousity, could you give me an example of a player that has come back early from broken ribs and dominated/struggled upon his return?
I dont think Rockliff is a must have as everybody is making him out to be.
Next week he will drop in price, hasn't cracked the ton yet this year, in 2 full games, I think Barlow would be a better get than Rockliff yet no one is mentioning him. Proven scorer as well.
Happy to help Ad,
in general, League oriented Coaches should try and hold Sloane. One it saves a trade, and secondly it is hard to find 110/game players for $513k. Yes, he will be cheaper after his return, but then that uses another trade.
I said "in general", but there are circumstances where League Coaches should trade Sloane out.
Will you lose touch with the 8, if you carry Sloane on your bench? If yes, then trade him out.
Looking at your opponents between now, and Rnd 12 when he is expected back, do you think you can win 3 out of 5 of those games with Sloane on the bench? Pretty hard to tell, as trading will reshape teams, but you can get a feel for it. If you think you might only win one or two, you might possibly need to trade Sloane.
You don't have to win every match, just make the 8 with trades left, and if possible, the top 4 with trades left.
Whatever you decide, I hope it works out.
in general, League oriented Coaches should try and hold Sloane. One it saves a trade, and secondly it is hard to find 110/game players for $513k. Yes, he will be cheaper after his return, but then that uses another trade.
I said "in general", but there are circumstances where League Coaches should trade Sloane out.
Will you lose touch with the 8, if you carry Sloane on your bench? If yes, then trade him out.
Looking at your opponents between now, and Rnd 12 when he is expected back, do you think you can win 3 out of 5 of those games with Sloane on the bench? Pretty hard to tell, as trading will reshape teams, but you can get a feel for it. If you think you might only win one or two, you might possibly need to trade Sloane.
You don't have to win every match, just make the 8 with trades left, and if possible, the top 4 with trades left.
Whatever you decide, I hope it works out.
Hey mate,
Who goes this week out of Vandenberg and McIntosh???
McIntosh has a BE in the 30's where's Vanders is in the 60's and could struggle against the Hawks this week.
These are my trade plans/options....
OPTION 1
Round 7
IN - Gray, McKenzie
OUT - Vandenberg, Hogan (via Goddard DPP)
(Can loophole DMac score with McIntosh)
(Can loophole Tarrant's score tonight)
$162,400
Round 8
IN - Rockliff, Lever
OUT - Salem/Clark (via DPP Gray to FWD), McIntosh
OPTION 2
Round 7
IN - Gray, McKenzie
OUT - McIntosh, Hogan
(No loophole options)
$82,500
Round 8
IN - Rockliff, Lever
OUT - Vandenberg, ................ (someone)
Cheers mate
Who goes this week out of Vandenberg and McIntosh???
McIntosh has a BE in the 30's where's Vanders is in the 60's and could struggle against the Hawks this week.
These are my trade plans/options....
OPTION 1
Round 7
IN - Gray, McKenzie
OUT - Vandenberg, Hogan (via Goddard DPP)
(Can loophole DMac score with McIntosh)
(Can loophole Tarrant's score tonight)
$162,400
Round 8
IN - Rockliff, Lever
OUT - Salem/Clark (via DPP Gray to FWD), McIntosh
OPTION 2
Round 7
IN - Gray, McKenzie
OUT - McIntosh, Hogan
(No loophole options)
$82,500
Round 8
IN - Rockliff, Lever
OUT - Vandenberg, ................ (someone)
Cheers mate
I'm struggling to find or think of SC Relevant players with a similar injury. Buntine, Gumbleton, Richards, LeCras. The closest to being SC Rel is LeCras, but the injury ended his 2013 season, so no comparison to be made.
I believe Barlow comes with his own injury concerns. I'm pretty sure he is playing while being hampered with a niggle or three. While he is certainly bargain priced, I can't see him getting back to being a 110 player until he gets over those niggles. I believe it is back, and ankle/foot related. When a player continues to play with niggles like those, it usually means the Doctors have said a weeks rest won't help. That means two things to me. Either they will carry on for weeks to come, or he will take an "extended bye" and miss the Round 11 away game against GC, giving him 3 weeks to get over the niggles. Either way, he looks like a risky pick to me. People are quite often surprised when a player gets "rested" the week before, or week after their byes, but some niggles that need rest just need that extra week. I'm sure some Clubs plan on doing it at the byes.
I believe Barlow comes with his own injury concerns. I'm pretty sure he is playing while being hampered with a niggle or three. While he is certainly bargain priced, I can't see him getting back to being a 110 player until he gets over those niggles. I believe it is back, and ankle/foot related. When a player continues to play with niggles like those, it usually means the Doctors have said a weeks rest won't help. That means two things to me. Either they will carry on for weeks to come, or he will take an "extended bye" and miss the Round 11 away game against GC, giving him 3 weeks to get over the niggles. Either way, he looks like a risky pick to me. People are quite often surprised when a player gets "rested" the week before, or week after their byes, but some niggles that need rest just need that extra week. I'm sure some Clubs plan on doing it at the byes.
Thanks Rowsus for your feedback
However, I have just noticed that I am playing you this week in one of my leagues
mmmmmm...Not conniving in any way are you?
However, I have just noticed that I am playing you this week in one of my leagues
mmmmmm...Not conniving in any way are you?
Good luck!
The largest jumps from one season to the next, that landed the player on 110+ average are:
66.7 - Martin S - 2013 5/45.0 - 2014 12/111.7 (197cm)
47.4 - Goldstein - 2010 21/65.8 - 2011 21/113.2 (201cm)
44.1 - Maric I - 2011 6/69.3 - 2012 21/113.4 (200cm)
38.6 - Dangerfield - 2011 22/80.3 - 2012 22/118.9 (185cm)
36.0 - Drummond - 2006 7/77.4 - 2007 11/113.4 (189cm)
3 Rucks, which emphasises that Rucks can really improve from one season to the next.
McDonald has a long way to go yet, of course. Let's not forget the lesson of Cale Hooker in 2014!
Rnds 1 - 8: 121, 111, 80, 108, 114, 69, 102, 109 - Ave 101.8
Rnds 9 - 23: 44, 72, 69, 73, 77, 28, 52, 92, 80, 64, 58, 76, 60, 78 - Ave 65.9
66.7 - Martin S - 2013 5/45.0 - 2014 12/111.7 (197cm)
47.4 - Goldstein - 2010 21/65.8 - 2011 21/113.2 (201cm)
44.1 - Maric I - 2011 6/69.3 - 2012 21/113.4 (200cm)
38.6 - Dangerfield - 2011 22/80.3 - 2012 22/118.9 (185cm)
36.0 - Drummond - 2006 7/77.4 - 2007 11/113.4 (189cm)
3 Rucks, which emphasises that Rucks can really improve from one season to the next.
McDonald has a long way to go yet, of course. Let's not forget the lesson of Cale Hooker in 2014!
Rnds 1 - 8: 121, 111, 80, 108, 114, 69, 102, 109 - Ave 101.8
Rnds 9 - 23: 44, 72, 69, 73, 77, 28, 52, 92, 80, 64, 58, 76, 60, 78 - Ave 65.9
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Hey Rowsus,
In regards to Sloane, I think the worst case/most likely scenario is that he comes back after the bye, meaning he misses/has missed 5 weeks in total. However, I didn't have trades to get him out for this week, and for next week my planned trades are VDB>Glenn, Hogan>Rockliff. While I am going for overall, after next week he'll only be out for three weeks (2 weeks + bye), and with CEY coming back I have some more solid scoring mid rookies on the field (having to field 3 of Glenn, Krak, CEY, Anderson, Miller, with the luxury of the loophole). In this case, do you think its worth keeping him?
Cheers mate
In regards to Sloane, I think the worst case/most likely scenario is that he comes back after the bye, meaning he misses/has missed 5 weeks in total. However, I didn't have trades to get him out for this week, and for next week my planned trades are VDB>Glenn, Hogan>Rockliff. While I am going for overall, after next week he'll only be out for three weeks (2 weeks + bye), and with CEY coming back I have some more solid scoring mid rookies on the field (having to field 3 of Glenn, Krak, CEY, Anderson, Miller, with the luxury of the loophole). In this case, do you think its worth keeping him?
Cheers mate
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