Opinion Questions For Rowsus
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Hi BBS,
Deledio has one of the most consistent SC histories going around! Remove his spike 117 in 2012, and he's 102-105 the whole way. up until last season, and this season, he was Mr. 22 games, too!
There in lies the problem. He's no longer Mr. 22 games. It's easy to get seduced by his last 2 scores, but I think he will still be his 102-105 self from here on in, but I just have fair doubts that he can play 14 games from here. If he plays 12 games at 105, and you get two Lonie/Tarrant type 60's to replace those missing games, he's actually only worth 98.6 from here. That's probably acceptable, but he's priced at around 107/game, so the question becomes, will you overpay to get an injury risk player? He will be a POD (currently in 5% of teams), but with the risk he represents, and being slightly overpriced, he deserves to be. Only if you are confident he can play at least 12 games from here.
If/when Ablett comes back, I will definitely watching first, and then deciding if I need to wreck one section of my team to get him in.
Deledio has one of the most consistent SC histories going around! Remove his spike 117 in 2012, and he's 102-105 the whole way. up until last season, and this season, he was Mr. 22 games, too!
There in lies the problem. He's no longer Mr. 22 games. It's easy to get seduced by his last 2 scores, but I think he will still be his 102-105 self from here on in, but I just have fair doubts that he can play 14 games from here. If he plays 12 games at 105, and you get two Lonie/Tarrant type 60's to replace those missing games, he's actually only worth 98.6 from here. That's probably acceptable, but he's priced at around 107/game, so the question becomes, will you overpay to get an injury risk player? He will be a POD (currently in 5% of teams), but with the risk he represents, and being slightly overpriced, he deserves to be. Only if you are confident he can play at least 12 games from here.
If/when Ablett comes back, I will definitely watching first, and then deciding if I need to wreck one section of my team to get him in.
Hi w2Tk,
Lumumba - he's a 75-80 player, and we were all foolish to expect more from him. He's priced at about 74. If you keep him, it is with the expectation he becomes your D7/M10 swingman for cover. If you can afford to keep him for that purpose, then that's ok, as long as your expectations are realistic. If you think it's a bit much, money-wise, to be committing to a D7 at this stage of the season, then trade him out. This week might represent the last chance to trade him out out his true value before his bye, unless he can plonk a 90 in the next week or two.
Simpson/Docherty - Simpson for consistent history, Docherty for upside.
Franklin - he's good value to what he's likely to average, being priced at 90, but keep in mind, he gets rested/tired/leg stress/managed late every season, and is likely to miss a game or two during those all important SC finals games. Take him with realistic expectations.
Smith - has done us a favour missing this week, makes it easier to bring him in after his bye!
Rioli - averaging 94 and priced to it. I'm not convinced he's "over" his leg injury risk. Too risky for mine, or I would want some value built into his price as compensation.
Rnd 12 bye - you can take it below 18 now, as long as the non Rnd 12 bye players you have now are solid (ie won't miss games), and you trade accordingly from here.
Lumumba - he's a 75-80 player, and we were all foolish to expect more from him. He's priced at about 74. If you keep him, it is with the expectation he becomes your D7/M10 swingman for cover. If you can afford to keep him for that purpose, then that's ok, as long as your expectations are realistic. If you think it's a bit much, money-wise, to be committing to a D7 at this stage of the season, then trade him out. This week might represent the last chance to trade him out out his true value before his bye, unless he can plonk a 90 in the next week or two.
Simpson/Docherty - Simpson for consistent history, Docherty for upside.
Franklin - he's good value to what he's likely to average, being priced at 90, but keep in mind, he gets rested/tired/leg stress/managed late every season, and is likely to miss a game or two during those all important SC finals games. Take him with realistic expectations.
Smith - has done us a favour missing this week, makes it easier to bring him in after his bye!
Rioli - averaging 94 and priced to it. I'm not convinced he's "over" his leg injury risk. Too risky for mine, or I would want some value built into his price as compensation.
Rnd 12 bye - you can take it below 18 now, as long as the non Rnd 12 bye players you have now are solid (ie won't miss games), and you trade accordingly from here.
Hi Rowsus,
First time poster in this thread, but a long time lurker
I admire your contribution to SCS and the advice and ever-present wisdom you provide, so would love your thoughts on my trades for this week.
Am looking to cash in Cripps and Miller to two Premium Mids, but I’m not sure as to who at this stage. Current Premium Mids are: Fyfe, Pendlebury, JPK, Ward, Selwood with $288k in the bank.
To date, I’ve considered: Hannebery, Beams, Parker, Lewis, Heppell and Rockliff. Alternatively, I could take Deledio or Harvey and swing them forward when need be. Unfortunately, if I take one of Hannebery or Beams, I’ll only be able to afford Rockliff or Harvey from those listed. However, if I lower the eyes a bit, I’ll be able to take any 2 of the remaining listed (or any other Mid priced within that price range).
After paying around $580k for Ward a few weeks ago, I’m a bit hesitant to take Hannebery as he is perhaps not the best value for money right now. On a similar note, I’m hesitant to take Parker as I could have picked him up a few weeks ago for around $70k cheaper than he is now, even though he is still $30k cheaper than his starting price. So having to pay that additional $70k burns a little... In hindsight, I should have taken Parker when I took Ward.
So was hoping to get your thoughts on what the best combination would be for my team moving forward?
Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated!
First time poster in this thread, but a long time lurker
I admire your contribution to SCS and the advice and ever-present wisdom you provide, so would love your thoughts on my trades for this week.
Am looking to cash in Cripps and Miller to two Premium Mids, but I’m not sure as to who at this stage. Current Premium Mids are: Fyfe, Pendlebury, JPK, Ward, Selwood with $288k in the bank.
To date, I’ve considered: Hannebery, Beams, Parker, Lewis, Heppell and Rockliff. Alternatively, I could take Deledio or Harvey and swing them forward when need be. Unfortunately, if I take one of Hannebery or Beams, I’ll only be able to afford Rockliff or Harvey from those listed. However, if I lower the eyes a bit, I’ll be able to take any 2 of the remaining listed (or any other Mid priced within that price range).
After paying around $580k for Ward a few weeks ago, I’m a bit hesitant to take Hannebery as he is perhaps not the best value for money right now. On a similar note, I’m hesitant to take Parker as I could have picked him up a few weeks ago for around $70k cheaper than he is now, even though he is still $30k cheaper than his starting price. So having to pay that additional $70k burns a little... In hindsight, I should have taken Parker when I took Ward.
So was hoping to get your thoughts on what the best combination would be for my team moving forward?
Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated!
Hannebery - priced at 117
Beams - priced at 116
Parker - priced at 112
Lewis - priced at 109
Heppell - priced at 109
Rockliff - priced at 94
Deledio - priced at 108
Harvey - priced at 102
The only player on your wish list, that you can be confident that he'll outscore his buy in price, is Rocky, and he's probably got the biggest upside/ceiling. I think you should get him in this week.
It seems you might have already overpaid for one or two Prems, and that being the case, I'd take the one you think is best value. From that list above, that might be Heppell. He might not be the highest scorer on that list, but he might be the best value.
Good luck, I hope you jump the right way!
He Ad,
if you think you can afford to carry a $365k D7, then hang on to him, he could be useful late in the season as a D7/M9-10. If you think you can't really afford that right now, then trade him out, this week!
Tarrant will quite probably slowly leak cash from here. Tarrant to Rocky looks like a good trade!
if you think you can afford to carry a $365k D7, then hang on to him, he could be useful late in the season as a D7/M9-10. If you think you can't really afford that right now, then trade him out, this week!
Tarrant will quite probably slowly leak cash from here. Tarrant to Rocky looks like a good trade!
Hello incog43,
The simple answer is no. You shouldn't be contemplating Stepping Stones at this stage of the season.
The more complicated answer is, maybe.
If you still have around 19 or 20 trades left, you can probably still accomodate a Stepping Stone.
The complication is, will he revert back to his negating/tagging type role? If so, he is poison, if not, he is more than useful!
I have a theory with taggers. Once you're labelled a tagger, you will nearly always end up getting put back to that job, eventually.
Just like tv-stars that try to make movies, they soon end up back on tv, or movie-stars, that drop back tv never really make it back to movies again, taggers are never "taken seriously" in other jobs, and are soon tagging again.
It's a big danger with Wallis. If he can score some 90's in the next few weeks, he can make you a quickish $100k, but if he goes tagging, you've burnt a trade for nothing.
The simple answer is no. You shouldn't be contemplating Stepping Stones at this stage of the season.
The more complicated answer is, maybe.
If you still have around 19 or 20 trades left, you can probably still accomodate a Stepping Stone.
The complication is, will he revert back to his negating/tagging type role? If so, he is poison, if not, he is more than useful!
I have a theory with taggers. Once you're labelled a tagger, you will nearly always end up getting put back to that job, eventually.
Just like tv-stars that try to make movies, they soon end up back on tv, or movie-stars, that drop back tv never really make it back to movies again, taggers are never "taken seriously" in other jobs, and are soon tagging again.
It's a big danger with Wallis. If he can score some 90's in the next few weeks, he can make you a quickish $100k, but if he goes tagging, you've burnt a trade for nothing.
G'day thommus,
North trialled him in a more half-back role early in the season, He's seems to have crept a bit more Fwd now, and that's definitely more SC friendly.
Rnds 1-5
Inside 50's 2.2, Goals 0.2, Disp 24.2, SC 83.6, SC/Disp 3.45
Rnds 6-8
Inside 50's 3.0, Goals 1.3, Disp 22.0, SC 100.0, SC/Disp 4.55
I think he's back on track, and he's priced to about what he might score from here (not actually cheap, as you said.)
North trialled him in a more half-back role early in the season, He's seems to have crept a bit more Fwd now, and that's definitely more SC friendly.
Rnds 1-5
Inside 50's 2.2, Goals 0.2, Disp 24.2, SC 83.6, SC/Disp 3.45
Rnds 6-8
Inside 50's 3.0, Goals 1.3, Disp 22.0, SC 100.0, SC/Disp 4.55
I think he's back on track, and he's priced to about what he might score from here (not actually cheap, as you said.)
G'day Rowsus
With Lonies score of 3 a couple of weeks ago stunting his cash making abilities coupled with his rnd 12 bye would it make sense to cut him now for Amon to build the bank for trading through the byes? I will be getting Rocky in for Miller with my other trade this week. Leaves my 19 trades leading into the byes.
Thanks
Dee
With Lonies score of 3 a couple of weeks ago stunting his cash making abilities coupled with his rnd 12 bye would it make sense to cut him now for Amon to build the bank for trading through the byes? I will be getting Rocky in for Miller with my other trade this week. Leaves my 19 trades leading into the byes.
Thanks
Dee
Hey again MrM,
McGovern - priced at 90 - Currently back to his opening price. Great at intercept contested marks, which is why he scores well on few possessions. Will suffer from KPP Def disease now and then, and score low, but I like him as a player, and SC option.
Howe - priced at 78 - I mentioned him a few times last week. Underpriced for sure, and can average 90+ over long periods, like he did in the last 3/4's of last season. I think there are Defs that will score better, but might be the best value Def, outside of a potentially fit Smith, going around.
Hombsch - 80 - a little 3 game hot streak, and now he's priced to the upper limits of our expectations. Not for me.
McG probably outscores the other two, but Howe represents the value!
McGovern - priced at 90 - Currently back to his opening price. Great at intercept contested marks, which is why he scores well on few possessions. Will suffer from KPP Def disease now and then, and score low, but I like him as a player, and SC option.
Howe - priced at 78 - I mentioned him a few times last week. Underpriced for sure, and can average 90+ over long periods, like he did in the last 3/4's of last season. I think there are Defs that will score better, but might be the best value Def, outside of a potentially fit Smith, going around.
Hombsch - 80 - a little 3 game hot streak, and now he's priced to the upper limits of our expectations. Not for me.
McG probably outscores the other two, but Howe represents the value!
G'day Dee,
I'm guessing not many that hold Lonie this week, will keep him past his Rnd 12 bye. So let's look at what he needs to do make some more Cash between now and then.
In round figures, he needs to score at 65 between now and his bye, to return to his current price when he has the bye.
He only has 2 scores better than that 65, and realistically, it looks like he is a 60-62 player.
If he scores at 62 before his bye, he loses $6k from here.
If you are able to hold him beyond the bye (?!) he is heading to a peak at around just over $300k, and will be within $5k of that mark by Rnd 17.
Some will say it's not worth downgrading Lonie, as you make too little. They will ride out his slow burn until they can upgrade him, or just bury him at F7/8.
If you have no thoughts of carrying him beyond Rnd 12, it's probably best to ditch him now. The obvious question is, to who?
Waiting a week might cost you $20k, but make the decision that much easier. Otherwise, maybe roll the dice on Lambert, though his scheduled return might not help your bye numbers! (Though he might be back in Rnd 12, and be perfect for them too!)
I'm guessing not many that hold Lonie this week, will keep him past his Rnd 12 bye. So let's look at what he needs to do make some more Cash between now and then.
In round figures, he needs to score at 65 between now and his bye, to return to his current price when he has the bye.
He only has 2 scores better than that 65, and realistically, it looks like he is a 60-62 player.
If he scores at 62 before his bye, he loses $6k from here.
If you are able to hold him beyond the bye (?!) he is heading to a peak at around just over $300k, and will be within $5k of that mark by Rnd 17.
Some will say it's not worth downgrading Lonie, as you make too little. They will ride out his slow burn until they can upgrade him, or just bury him at F7/8.
If you have no thoughts of carrying him beyond Rnd 12, it's probably best to ditch him now. The obvious question is, to who?
Waiting a week might cost you $20k, but make the decision that much easier. Otherwise, maybe roll the dice on Lambert, though his scheduled return might not help your bye numbers! (Though he might be back in Rnd 12, and be perfect for them too!)
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Hi Rowsus,
I'm back again in regard to McGovern
Was wondering if your thoughts have differed at all?? Is he going to go top 6 DEF from here on in your opinion, or at least near on?
My thinking is that he will, and that I might b better off jumping on him this week instead of Simpson (worried about a flogging for the Blues).
I can trade McGovern in for a Salem or Tarrant, and link him up with Goddard to have a fairly handy swing between the DEF and FWD lines.
Cheers, Goodie
I'm back again in regard to McGovern
Was wondering if your thoughts have differed at all?? Is he going to go top 6 DEF from here on in your opinion, or at least near on?
My thinking is that he will, and that I might b better off jumping on him this week instead of Simpson (worried about a flogging for the Blues).
I can trade McGovern in for a Salem or Tarrant, and link him up with Goddard to have a fairly handy swing between the DEF and FWD lines.
Cheers, Goodie
Thanks Rowsus. I have some thinking to do with Birchall out and Smith missing again, both of which might change things timing-wise.
Brown is obviously better than a FD through the byes, although given his likely scores, and that I look fine for rounds 11 and 13, he may not be much better. A pre-byes cash grab, especially one that doesn't hurt my on-field scoring, could be a good option.
Thanks again - hopefully Brown can jag a couple of 70s for you before you trade him!
Brown is obviously better than a FD through the byes, although given his likely scores, and that I look fine for rounds 11 and 13, he may not be much better. A pre-byes cash grab, especially one that doesn't hurt my on-field scoring, could be a good option.
Thanks again - hopefully Brown can jag a couple of 70s for you before you trade him!
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Hi Rowsus,
Have been following your advice again all season and as usual it has in part helped shape my team. So far my side is going okay (fairly consistent) without setting the world on fire.
I have come to that point where I now have Goodes, Salem, Lonie clogging my list but no decent downgrades available that I have confidence in.
I also want to bring in Franklin this week but can only do so by trading out Tarrant (leaves $500) unless I do a double trade with a downgrade.
I have only used 7 trades so far so have no problems in this area.
What would you do in my shoes?
cheers Saint
Have been following your advice again all season and as usual it has in part helped shape my team. So far my side is going okay (fairly consistent) without setting the world on fire.
I have come to that point where I now have Goodes, Salem, Lonie clogging my list but no decent downgrades available that I have confidence in.
I also want to bring in Franklin this week but can only do so by trading out Tarrant (leaves $500) unless I do a double trade with a downgrade.
I have only used 7 trades so far so have no problems in this area.
What would you do in my shoes?
cheers Saint
Hi Rowsus,
I'm back again in regard to McGovern
Was wondering if your thoughts have differed at all?? Is he going to go top 6 DEF from here on in your opinion, or at least near on?
My thinking is that he will, and that I might b better off jumping on him this week instead of Simpson (worried about a flogging for the Blues).
I can trade McGovern in for a Salem or Tarrant, and link him up with Goddard to have a fairly handy swing between the DEF and FWD lines.
Cheers, Goodie
I'm back again in regard to McGovern
Was wondering if your thoughts have differed at all?? Is he going to go top 6 DEF from here on in your opinion, or at least near on?
My thinking is that he will, and that I might b better off jumping on him this week instead of Simpson (worried about a flogging for the Blues).
I can trade McGovern in for a Salem or Tarrant, and link him up with Goddard to have a fairly handy swing between the DEF and FWD lines.
Cheers, Goodie
I think he will be just outside the top 6-8 Defs from here, but the ability to swing him potentially adds to his value. I don't think he's a bad choice.
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