Opinion Questions For Rowsus
- Thread starter Rowsus
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How important is it to use your dollars as wisely as possible?
This season I have/have had in my team:
Ablett, Rockliff, Selwood, Sloane, Bartel
They came into my team at an average cost of $647,380 each, and have returned a per game average average of 79.5!
That's around $8,143/point.
I also have in my team some moneyball players:
Walker, Cripps, Greene, Neale
While most have only been there a week or two, they cost me an average of $436,650 each, and have returned a per game average average of 106.5!
That's exactly $4,100/point
The message is, spend well or perish! I have spent too much, too poorly, and I am definitely perishing!
This season I have/have had in my team:
Ablett, Rockliff, Selwood, Sloane, Bartel
They came into my team at an average cost of $647,380 each, and have returned a per game average average of 79.5!
That's around $8,143/point.
I also have in my team some moneyball players:
Walker, Cripps, Greene, Neale
While most have only been there a week or two, they cost me an average of $436,650 each, and have returned a per game average average of 106.5!
That's exactly $4,100/point
The message is, spend well or perish! I have spent too much, too poorly, and I am definitely perishing!
G'day Rowsus - got more of a general SC question for you - specifically relating to higher-end mid pricers. At what point do you say to a well performing mid pricer, good job, time to flick you on to an uber-premium?
For example, I started the season with Jack Steven and Bontempelli. At this point in the season, Steven is averaging 112, and Bont 108 - certainly keeper numbers for their respective positions. But historically, you wouldn't have suggested they would be top 10 mids or top 8 forwards at the start of the season. So at what point do you look to move them on, or do you hold them until a form dip?
For example, Steven has the awkward Round 12 Bye - if you'd told me at the start of the season that I could cash Steven in at Round 11, for 110+ average, I would have taken it in a heartbeat. But now when it comes to the crunch, it's going to be very difficult to trade him out, even to a Ward/Priddis/Sloane type, given how well he's performed.
Also facing a decision on Kolodjashnij. Obviously he's underperformed this season given the improvement we were expecting - but his last four scores have been 88, 94, 81, 110. Respectable numbers for a defender given how much they've struggled. Do I pull the pin and say he was an error in selection, or hope that a very young player can continue increasing his numbers throughout the season?
Thanks again for all the wonderful help you give on this thread!
For example, I started the season with Jack Steven and Bontempelli. At this point in the season, Steven is averaging 112, and Bont 108 - certainly keeper numbers for their respective positions. But historically, you wouldn't have suggested they would be top 10 mids or top 8 forwards at the start of the season. So at what point do you look to move them on, or do you hold them until a form dip?
For example, Steven has the awkward Round 12 Bye - if you'd told me at the start of the season that I could cash Steven in at Round 11, for 110+ average, I would have taken it in a heartbeat. But now when it comes to the crunch, it's going to be very difficult to trade him out, even to a Ward/Priddis/Sloane type, given how well he's performed.
Also facing a decision on Kolodjashnij. Obviously he's underperformed this season given the improvement we were expecting - but his last four scores have been 88, 94, 81, 110. Respectable numbers for a defender given how much they've struggled. Do I pull the pin and say he was an error in selection, or hope that a very young player can continue increasing his numbers throughout the season?
Thanks again for all the wonderful help you give on this thread!
Hi Rowsus
I've been planning and saving for 8 weeks to unwrap a shiny new ruckman (sounds like a few of us have). But now he might be cheaper after Rnd 9. Currently I have Bellchambers at R2 who will go forward to make room for Goldstein. Do I wait for another price drop or enjoy the extra 40-50 points this week?
Thanks
I've been planning and saving for 8 weeks to unwrap a shiny new ruckman (sounds like a few of us have). But now he might be cheaper after Rnd 9. Currently I have Bellchambers at R2 who will go forward to make room for Goldstein. Do I wait for another price drop or enjoy the extra 40-50 points this week?
Thanks
Thinking outside the box a little on this one, so please hear me out!
I'm really considering Callum Sinclair for a floating F7/R3.
Given Lycett's struggles, Sinclair seems to have pretty good job security.
With McLaren currently at R3, I can swing Sinclair as required.
This could be a very easy decision if Goldy cops a week.
Would love to hear your thoughts and talk me out of it if I'm being ridiculous.
Cheers Rowsus.
I'm really considering Callum Sinclair for a floating F7/R3.
Given Lycett's struggles, Sinclair seems to have pretty good job security.
With McLaren currently at R3, I can swing Sinclair as required.
This could be a very easy decision if Goldy cops a week.
Would love to hear your thoughts and talk me out of it if I'm being ridiculous.
Cheers Rowsus.
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hi row
it sounded like you had a good week with supercoach.
i am looking to bring in a couple of the following players hannes, jordan lewis, beams, mundy. where would you rank them as in there scoring potential for the remainder of the year.
We have had 8 weeks of sc. if you had to list the top 8-10 forwards and midfiders to finish off the season who would they be?
it sounded like you had a good week with supercoach.
i am looking to bring in a couple of the following players hannes, jordan lewis, beams, mundy. where would you rank them as in there scoring potential for the remainder of the year.
We have had 8 weeks of sc. if you had to list the top 8-10 forwards and midfiders to finish off the season who would they be?
Hi Rowsus,
I'm playing for wins in my league this year now, a well established high quality league full of good rivalries. At 57k overall ranking I'm realistic in thinking that any chance of individual honours is long gone already. In my league I'm sitting 4th and have started to find some consistent scoring patterns, however, like you, I've been Fyfe-less all year. Much to my annoyance I have to bite the bullet now and bring him in I think, even at 659k, as If I don't I will fall out of touch with the top 3. I'm annoyed because in order to get him in I need to bring in a non playing donut defender (or hopefully someone that will get a game soon like H Goddard or Scharenberg). Finally to my question ... I need to sacrifice one of Oxley and J Bruce to get this manoeuvre completed; which one would you cull ? I'm leaning towards Bruce. He's been a great cash and points generating POD pick for me but I have my doubts about how much longer he can keep it up especially in a weaker team. Cheers ....
I'm playing for wins in my league this year now, a well established high quality league full of good rivalries. At 57k overall ranking I'm realistic in thinking that any chance of individual honours is long gone already. In my league I'm sitting 4th and have started to find some consistent scoring patterns, however, like you, I've been Fyfe-less all year. Much to my annoyance I have to bite the bullet now and bring him in I think, even at 659k, as If I don't I will fall out of touch with the top 3. I'm annoyed because in order to get him in I need to bring in a non playing donut defender (or hopefully someone that will get a game soon like H Goddard or Scharenberg). Finally to my question ... I need to sacrifice one of Oxley and J Bruce to get this manoeuvre completed; which one would you cull ? I'm leaning towards Bruce. He's been a great cash and points generating POD pick for me but I have my doubts about how much longer he can keep it up especially in a weaker team. Cheers ....
Hi Rowsus - I noticed your comments about Nathan Brown in the round 8 final scores thread, and thought I would check your latest thinking on him, as I had actually raised this in another thread recently.
My rationale for not starting him under normal circumstances, but being drawn to him this season, was essentially identical to yours.
What are your plans for him now?
With def rookies proving to be much better than we all seemed to expect, and keepers increasingly filling up our def spots anyway, I think Brown may be nearing the end of his SC-useful life again. He's also up 100k or so, and essentially priced at the c. 50s he will likely deliver.
I'm considering trading him to Adamson for a FD and 150k in loose change. My def structure is essentially the same as yours - three intended keepers, Newnes, Oxley, Saad, McKenzie in the mids, and Brown and Lever rounding it out (you have Tosh instead of Lever, obviously).
I've been eying Birchall since pre-season and was about to bring him in, the only issue being his potential injury. Smith is my other def target to complete my line post his bye. I have cover via Lever, and potentially McKenzie, for now.
What do you think? Do you have different plans for Brown? Thanks again.
My rationale for not starting him under normal circumstances, but being drawn to him this season, was essentially identical to yours.
What are your plans for him now?
With def rookies proving to be much better than we all seemed to expect, and keepers increasingly filling up our def spots anyway, I think Brown may be nearing the end of his SC-useful life again. He's also up 100k or so, and essentially priced at the c. 50s he will likely deliver.
I'm considering trading him to Adamson for a FD and 150k in loose change. My def structure is essentially the same as yours - three intended keepers, Newnes, Oxley, Saad, McKenzie in the mids, and Brown and Lever rounding it out (you have Tosh instead of Lever, obviously).
I've been eying Birchall since pre-season and was about to bring him in, the only issue being his potential injury. Smith is my other def target to complete my line post his bye. I have cover via Lever, and potentially McKenzie, for now.
What do you think? Do you have different plans for Brown? Thanks again.
Hi Rowsus,
Member for a while, first time poster in this area, so here goes nothing
I'm in a position to upgrade my final midfield spot and have narrowed it down to a Sydney player for a few reasons
a) I don't have a single Sydney premo player in my side
b) Top 4 team (should be) = bigger slice of the pie = more wins (theoretically)
c) Few young guns who can run all day long
Current midfield is Fyfe, Mundy, Pendles, Neale, Selwood, Lewis, Rocky.
The 3 Sydney players who i'm looking at are JPK, Parker and Hanners. All 3 are now priced very similar
JPK - $581,200
Hanners - $578,200
Parker - $553,000
Not phased about most mids having the rd12 bye. Ignoring averages as Parker has been injured/different position, which one would you pick? I'm leaning towards Hanners for a POD but also averaging really well to date, just worried he may slow down late in the year. Or is my question like how long is a piece of string? Most people would say JPK and whilst I don't think he's a terrible option, I do think one needs several different players to try and get a bit of an edge on the competition.
Interested to hear your thoughts
Many thanks in advance
Member for a while, first time poster in this area, so here goes nothing
I'm in a position to upgrade my final midfield spot and have narrowed it down to a Sydney player for a few reasons
a) I don't have a single Sydney premo player in my side
b) Top 4 team (should be) = bigger slice of the pie = more wins (theoretically)
c) Few young guns who can run all day long
Current midfield is Fyfe, Mundy, Pendles, Neale, Selwood, Lewis, Rocky.
The 3 Sydney players who i'm looking at are JPK, Parker and Hanners. All 3 are now priced very similar
JPK - $581,200
Hanners - $578,200
Parker - $553,000
Not phased about most mids having the rd12 bye. Ignoring averages as Parker has been injured/different position, which one would you pick? I'm leaning towards Hanners for a POD but also averaging really well to date, just worried he may slow down late in the year. Or is my question like how long is a piece of string? Most people would say JPK and whilst I don't think he's a terrible option, I do think one needs several different players to try and get a bit of an edge on the competition.
Interested to hear your thoughts
Many thanks in advance
G'day Zagbag,
it's certainly can be one of the problems with taking those higher mid-priced players, with the intention of using them as Stepping Stones. If they perform well, you want to keep them, if they perform poorly, it's a waste of money and a trade. Steven was averaging 102 before his weekend monster, and I guess the questions become: What do you think he can achieve from here, until the end of the season, and from here, until his bye?
Before his weekend monster, 2 of his seasons best 3 scores were in a win, and a close loss. Given St Kilda's standing in the competition, they may not have too many of those after their bye. Looking at his coming opponents:
Brisbane:
Rnd 8 opposition Mids scored: 119, 112, 112 - but none of those were Watson or Heppell!
Rnd 7 Gray scored 134, and Wingard 105, but Boak 75, Ebert 73, Cornes 55
Rnd 6 Gibbs, Judd, Cripps were all between 104 and 113, but Murphy was 78
Conclusion: Brisbane can do a fair job of containing the one or two main opposition Mids.
Hawthorn:
Rnd 8 Hanne 138, Parker 124, Jack 107, JPK 104
Rnd 7 N Jones 104, next best Mid Vince 79!
Rnd 6 Ward 131, Griffen, Shiel, Treloar, Greene 101-107
Conclusion: You probably need good Midfield depth to have one or two score well against Haw.
Melbourne:
Rnd 8 Boyd 132, Dahl 124, Wallis 115, Bont got Vinced for 42
Rnd 7 Mitchell, Shiels, Hartung all 121-128, no Lewis
Rnd 6 JPK 135, Titchell, 125, Parker 119, Jack 110, but Hanne 85. Was Hanne Vinced?
Conclusion: Vince is becoming a good tagger, but the ones that don't get Vince, score well!
If you think he can't go in the 106-108 area from here, and fill a cheap M8 role, or you are scared to change plans, because changing plans can lead to things backfiring, then you need to trade him out. The question becomes, when? He has a B/E of 65, so you'd think he might rise about $15-17k after this week. One thing to keep in mind, even though Steven was averaging 102 before the weekend, his AF average was 113, that might be an indicator that he can score at an M7/8 Keeper level. He'll probably struggle against Hawthorn, and will Vince go to Armitage or Steven? Also, you need to look at what your trades are possibly going to be in the coming weeks. Do you have your eye on someone, that might need 2 trades next week? If so, it might be time to trade him this week, unless you already have those trades planned too. If you're unsure, and it all looks too hard, you should probably hold him until Round 12, and trade him then. Find your intended Rnd 11/13 target for Steven, and look at his B/E and his draw, and time your trade around him. For the moment, I'd probably keep him at least until his bye.
Bonts a tricky one, that's for sure. One thing I'm certain of, some people are too quick to label him a Prem! He's only averaged 84 in his last 5 matches, and his highest score in that time, 113 against St Kilda, was a real head scratcher. 15 possessions, no goals, an AF score of 66! Not often your SC:AF is 1.7:1! He does represent a problem. A B/E of 153 and he's already dropped nearly $25k from his peak price. He's currently priced to score around 94, and it's possible he could hold that price, after he drops a bit this week and next week. Given he's a 19 year old, 2nd year player, with only 23 games under his belt, it's also possible he will find the extra attention he's drawing too much, and his season will fall apart a bit, with the physical pressure leading to more missed games as we go along. Given his B/E, if you decide he has to go, then the sooner the better. He should lose more money than Tarrant this week, so if he's on your trade out list, he should go before Tarrant. I never had Bont, and I'm starting to feel good about that! Once again, if in doubt, hold him, but otherwise, out he goes this week!
KK hasn't scored under 81 in his last 5 games, has averaged 91 in his last 5, and 95 in his last 3. He's got a B/E of 58, and the playing list around him is riddled with holes, with 4 of last seasons 5 best Mids out with LTI's. I think you'd be mad to trade him out at the moment.
it's certainly can be one of the problems with taking those higher mid-priced players, with the intention of using them as Stepping Stones. If they perform well, you want to keep them, if they perform poorly, it's a waste of money and a trade. Steven was averaging 102 before his weekend monster, and I guess the questions become: What do you think he can achieve from here, until the end of the season, and from here, until his bye?
Before his weekend monster, 2 of his seasons best 3 scores were in a win, and a close loss. Given St Kilda's standing in the competition, they may not have too many of those after their bye. Looking at his coming opponents:
Brisbane:
Rnd 8 opposition Mids scored: 119, 112, 112 - but none of those were Watson or Heppell!
Rnd 7 Gray scored 134, and Wingard 105, but Boak 75, Ebert 73, Cornes 55
Rnd 6 Gibbs, Judd, Cripps were all between 104 and 113, but Murphy was 78
Conclusion: Brisbane can do a fair job of containing the one or two main opposition Mids.
Hawthorn:
Rnd 8 Hanne 138, Parker 124, Jack 107, JPK 104
Rnd 7 N Jones 104, next best Mid Vince 79!
Rnd 6 Ward 131, Griffen, Shiel, Treloar, Greene 101-107
Conclusion: You probably need good Midfield depth to have one or two score well against Haw.
Melbourne:
Rnd 8 Boyd 132, Dahl 124, Wallis 115, Bont got Vinced for 42
Rnd 7 Mitchell, Shiels, Hartung all 121-128, no Lewis
Rnd 6 JPK 135, Titchell, 125, Parker 119, Jack 110, but Hanne 85. Was Hanne Vinced?
Conclusion: Vince is becoming a good tagger, but the ones that don't get Vince, score well!
If you think he can't go in the 106-108 area from here, and fill a cheap M8 role, or you are scared to change plans, because changing plans can lead to things backfiring, then you need to trade him out. The question becomes, when? He has a B/E of 65, so you'd think he might rise about $15-17k after this week. One thing to keep in mind, even though Steven was averaging 102 before the weekend, his AF average was 113, that might be an indicator that he can score at an M7/8 Keeper level. He'll probably struggle against Hawthorn, and will Vince go to Armitage or Steven? Also, you need to look at what your trades are possibly going to be in the coming weeks. Do you have your eye on someone, that might need 2 trades next week? If so, it might be time to trade him this week, unless you already have those trades planned too. If you're unsure, and it all looks too hard, you should probably hold him until Round 12, and trade him then. Find your intended Rnd 11/13 target for Steven, and look at his B/E and his draw, and time your trade around him. For the moment, I'd probably keep him at least until his bye.
Bonts a tricky one, that's for sure. One thing I'm certain of, some people are too quick to label him a Prem! He's only averaged 84 in his last 5 matches, and his highest score in that time, 113 against St Kilda, was a real head scratcher. 15 possessions, no goals, an AF score of 66! Not often your SC:AF is 1.7:1! He does represent a problem. A B/E of 153 and he's already dropped nearly $25k from his peak price. He's currently priced to score around 94, and it's possible he could hold that price, after he drops a bit this week and next week. Given he's a 19 year old, 2nd year player, with only 23 games under his belt, it's also possible he will find the extra attention he's drawing too much, and his season will fall apart a bit, with the physical pressure leading to more missed games as we go along. Given his B/E, if you decide he has to go, then the sooner the better. He should lose more money than Tarrant this week, so if he's on your trade out list, he should go before Tarrant. I never had Bont, and I'm starting to feel good about that! Once again, if in doubt, hold him, but otherwise, out he goes this week!
KK hasn't scored under 81 in his last 5 games, has averaged 91 in his last 5, and 95 in his last 3. He's got a B/E of 58, and the playing list around him is riddled with holes, with 4 of last seasons 5 best Mids out with LTI's. I think you'd be mad to trade him out at the moment.
Hi freowho,
some might be looking at Goldy's recent scores, and be a bit concerned. I think he's done exactly what the non-Goldy owners wanted and needed. Let's analyse those recent scores.
92 V Hawthorn - they are the 4th hardest team for Rucks to score against, running at -15% to average.
100 V Richmond - they are the 5th hardest team for Rucks to score against, running at -12% to average
98 V Essendon - they are the 9th hardest team for Rucks to score against, running at -3% to average
44 V Fremantle - they are the very hardest team for Rucks to score against, running at -26% to average
That's one very disappointing score, where he has played 3 of his 4 games, against teams from the 5 toughest teams to score against. His Price has dropped $88k, and all the non-goldy owners get to miss that 44!!!
So to the main question. Do you take him this week, with his B/E at 173, or do you maximise his price drop, and wait a week or two?
The current numbers from the Rucking thread, updated after Round 8 (but not published) suggest Goldy will score in the coming weeks:
Rnd 9 Coll - 117, Rnd 10 WC - 106, Rnd 11 Syd - 91, Rnd 12 GWS - 90
That's an average of 101, which is probably about 40/week better than TBC. The upgrade costs about $203k, so that's about right for the improvement you'll be getting.
If Goldy's scores follow the above predictions, his price will bottom out after his round 10 game at $487k, roughly $40k cheaper than it is now. So, do you pay $40k higher, for a potential 100-105 point higher score over those 2 weeks?
The answer lies in your confidence. If you think Goldy is fine/fit/has no problems, and I have no reason to believe he does have any problems, then get him now. If you have any doubts, work elsewhere for now, and pick him up for just under $500k just after his bye.
some might be looking at Goldy's recent scores, and be a bit concerned. I think he's done exactly what the non-Goldy owners wanted and needed. Let's analyse those recent scores.
92 V Hawthorn - they are the 4th hardest team for Rucks to score against, running at -15% to average.
100 V Richmond - they are the 5th hardest team for Rucks to score against, running at -12% to average
98 V Essendon - they are the 9th hardest team for Rucks to score against, running at -3% to average
44 V Fremantle - they are the very hardest team for Rucks to score against, running at -26% to average
That's one very disappointing score, where he has played 3 of his 4 games, against teams from the 5 toughest teams to score against. His Price has dropped $88k, and all the non-goldy owners get to miss that 44!!!
So to the main question. Do you take him this week, with his B/E at 173, or do you maximise his price drop, and wait a week or two?
The current numbers from the Rucking thread, updated after Round 8 (but not published) suggest Goldy will score in the coming weeks:
Rnd 9 Coll - 117, Rnd 10 WC - 106, Rnd 11 Syd - 91, Rnd 12 GWS - 90
That's an average of 101, which is probably about 40/week better than TBC. The upgrade costs about $203k, so that's about right for the improvement you'll be getting.
If Goldy's scores follow the above predictions, his price will bottom out after his round 10 game at $487k, roughly $40k cheaper than it is now. So, do you pay $40k higher, for a potential 100-105 point higher score over those 2 weeks?
The answer lies in your confidence. If you think Goldy is fine/fit/has no problems, and I have no reason to believe he does have any problems, then get him now. If you have any doubts, work elsewhere for now, and pick him up for just under $500k just after his bye.
I don't like it. It assumes a JS that I just don't believe is there. Lycett has played ok in the WAFL, and while Sinclair did well on the weekend, keep in mind that was against St Kilda, and St Kilda are the easiest team for Rucks to score against. I think he only has to put in one bad game, or string two just ok games together, and Lycett will be back. I don't think you will get your trade or dollars worth in doing that one, I'd leave it alone.
Hi brad182,
my 2 pin-up boys for breakout candidates from the pre-season, but somehow, I only have Neale in my team.
I think Hannes might shade Neale from here. Neale is running free in a lot of games right now, and I can't see that continuing to happen as often as it is now. Hannes has a better history, and would seem more likely to be able to maintain his scoring than Neale, imo.
my 2 pin-up boys for breakout candidates from the pre-season, but somehow, I only have Neale in my team.
I think Hannes might shade Neale from here. Neale is running free in a lot of games right now, and I can't see that continuing to happen as often as it is now. Hannes has a better history, and would seem more likely to be able to maintain his scoring than Neale, imo.
hi Ad,
don't mind the first question, don't like the second one, but I will have a crack at it anyway!
I would take a stab at:
Beams 112, Hanne 110, Lewis 107, Mundy 105
Fwds
Gray, Martin, Swan, Harvey, Goddard, Wingard, Roughead, Dahlhaus, Riewoldt J, Walker
Notable omissions - Franklin, Deledio, Bennell who will average well, but miss games affecting their aggregates.
Mids
Fyfe, Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Kennedy JP, Beams, Priddis, Hannebery, Parker, Wines, Heppell
I'm guessing we'll get a good laugh at some of those in the coming weeks!
don't mind the first question, don't like the second one, but I will have a crack at it anyway!
I would take a stab at:
Beams 112, Hanne 110, Lewis 107, Mundy 105
Fwds
Gray, Martin, Swan, Harvey, Goddard, Wingard, Roughead, Dahlhaus, Riewoldt J, Walker
Notable omissions - Franklin, Deledio, Bennell who will average well, but miss games affecting their aggregates.
Mids
Fyfe, Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Kennedy JP, Beams, Priddis, Hannebery, Parker, Wines, Heppell
I'm guessing we'll get a good laugh at some of those in the coming weeks!
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