Opinion Questions For Rowsus
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Hi Lobo,
it's actually an ok looking team, and I think you can take some solace, in that doesn't appear you have done much wrong, you've just been caught up in the Smith/Simpson/Selwood disappointments, and that was largely unavoidable, unless you were lucky enough not to take them.
Just on trading Lumumba being considered a sideways step. I'm not too sure about that myself. We were hoping for a different Lumumba with the change of Clubs, perhaps somewhat foolishly. He's priced at 79-80, has a B/E of 101, and is currently averaging 77, a career 3rd best! Realistically, his price should drop a little bit further before flattening a bit. There are some Coaches considering trading Saad, who is averaging 8 more, but is priced $78k lower. Aside from it being Saad's first season, and him having just missed a week, I'd much rather trade Lumumba than Saad! I don't think cashing out or upgrading Lumumba is the worst possible move a Coach could make. It is of course, much more important to deal with Lonie and possibly Vdb, if they are picked, though some might argue, that Vdb might out score Lumumba this week, and therefore drop less than him!
Your Def line needs help, and the bottom line is, every single player you trade in to your Defs right now has a downside and risks attached. When there are no safe picks, and I really believe there aren't any right now, you may as well trade in a $400-$450k player with upside (Howe, Thurlow, Laird, Hurn, MJ, Yoe) as chasing points, and taking risks with the $500-$550k players (Houli, Hodge, McDonald, Picken, Shaw). It's hard to envisage that half or more of the current top 10 Def scorers will also be top 10 for the last 16 rounds. While it is hard to isolate which players will do that, you need to start somewhere. Howe is an interesting one. He missed a chunk of the pre-season with a hamstring injury, and he's under contract talks, but this season is looking very similar to last season. Last season he averaged 64.5 in the first 6 games, with a 100+ and a 90+ in there, and 93.2 in last 16 games. This season he has averaged 80.1 in the first 7 games, with 2 100+'s and a 90+ in there. His B/E is 137, so he will very likely be cheaper next week.
The other question you need to ask yourself is, how much do you want Mitchell? If you think you want him, you have to have him this week, or he's pretty much gone. I'm facing the same decision this week, and I'm still not sure if I get him or not. Yes, it will give you 14 Rnd 12 players, but half of them are Rookies, so that gets fixed before the byes. To my mind Rocky can wait a week. With the injury he's coming back from, it wouldn't surprise me if he is still a week or three away from full function. Yes, he's bottomed out in price, but I think we can risk a week's wait with him.
It comes down to selection this week, so we know if we have to prioritise a Rookie or two for trade outs, and how much you want Mitchell. One way or another, you probably want two Def upgrades in the next 4 weeks.
Good luck, if you find a Def gem, let me know!
it's actually an ok looking team, and I think you can take some solace, in that doesn't appear you have done much wrong, you've just been caught up in the Smith/Simpson/Selwood disappointments, and that was largely unavoidable, unless you were lucky enough not to take them.
Just on trading Lumumba being considered a sideways step. I'm not too sure about that myself. We were hoping for a different Lumumba with the change of Clubs, perhaps somewhat foolishly. He's priced at 79-80, has a B/E of 101, and is currently averaging 77, a career 3rd best! Realistically, his price should drop a little bit further before flattening a bit. There are some Coaches considering trading Saad, who is averaging 8 more, but is priced $78k lower. Aside from it being Saad's first season, and him having just missed a week, I'd much rather trade Lumumba than Saad! I don't think cashing out or upgrading Lumumba is the worst possible move a Coach could make. It is of course, much more important to deal with Lonie and possibly Vdb, if they are picked, though some might argue, that Vdb might out score Lumumba this week, and therefore drop less than him!
Your Def line needs help, and the bottom line is, every single player you trade in to your Defs right now has a downside and risks attached. When there are no safe picks, and I really believe there aren't any right now, you may as well trade in a $400-$450k player with upside (Howe, Thurlow, Laird, Hurn, MJ, Yoe) as chasing points, and taking risks with the $500-$550k players (Houli, Hodge, McDonald, Picken, Shaw). It's hard to envisage that half or more of the current top 10 Def scorers will also be top 10 for the last 16 rounds. While it is hard to isolate which players will do that, you need to start somewhere. Howe is an interesting one. He missed a chunk of the pre-season with a hamstring injury, and he's under contract talks, but this season is looking very similar to last season. Last season he averaged 64.5 in the first 6 games, with a 100+ and a 90+ in there, and 93.2 in last 16 games. This season he has averaged 80.1 in the first 7 games, with 2 100+'s and a 90+ in there. His B/E is 137, so he will very likely be cheaper next week.
The other question you need to ask yourself is, how much do you want Mitchell? If you think you want him, you have to have him this week, or he's pretty much gone. I'm facing the same decision this week, and I'm still not sure if I get him or not. Yes, it will give you 14 Rnd 12 players, but half of them are Rookies, so that gets fixed before the byes. To my mind Rocky can wait a week. With the injury he's coming back from, it wouldn't surprise me if he is still a week or three away from full function. Yes, he's bottomed out in price, but I think we can risk a week's wait with him.
It comes down to selection this week, so we know if we have to prioritise a Rookie or two for trade outs, and how much you want Mitchell. One way or another, you probably want two Def upgrades in the next 4 weeks.
Good luck, if you find a Def gem, let me know!
Hi Seedsman,
I agree that Schade's JS might be better than Lever's, but Lever's growth potential is probably better, if he can keep his spot. Schade's a KPP Def, and will do well to average 60 from here, I would think.
With Miller/Sheed having B/E's of 34/32, I would rather squeeze a bit more out of them, and use Sloane to get Rocky. Though Sloane could also be used to get Ward, and then have another week to assess Rocky. Yes his price has bottomed out, but he won't be out of reach next week, and we'll all be a week smarter.
I agree that Schade's JS might be better than Lever's, but Lever's growth potential is probably better, if he can keep his spot. Schade's a KPP Def, and will do well to average 60 from here, I would think.
With Miller/Sheed having B/E's of 34/32, I would rather squeeze a bit more out of them, and use Sloane to get Rocky. Though Sloane could also be used to get Ward, and then have another week to assess Rocky. Yes his price has bottomed out, but he won't be out of reach next week, and we'll all be a week smarter.
Happy to help, Ad.
While Lever isn't looking like a must have right now, it comes down to how you think your current and future fund raising is looking. If you think you can make enough, with the few Cows on the horizon, then maybe hold your trade. If Glenn is picked, you might also consider Lonie to Glenn,
While Lever isn't looking like a must have right now, it comes down to how you think your current and future fund raising is looking. If you think you can make enough, with the few Cows on the horizon, then maybe hold your trade. If Glenn is picked, you might also consider Lonie to Glenn,
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G'Day Rowsus, im stuck and need you help if you have time.
Im not going rocky this week as i want 1 more look at him (could be bad move but oh well)
my trades im looking at are -
1/ Vander & Geary out for Goddard & Lambert - goddard completes Fwd line ( Swan, Bont, Gray, Buddy, Dusty, Cameron, Lambert)
2/ Vander & Geary out for M.Johnson & Lambert - Mj starts strengthening Def (Shaw, Higgins, Saad, Kmac, andrews, Mckenzie, Adamson)
Lambert gives me link to fwds, FD and could be back after byes
Rest of my team is
Mids - Fyfe, Pendles, Selwood, Jpk, Cotchin, Griffen, Cripps, Miller, Glenn, Krak
Rck - Mummy, TBC
My bye plan was to upgrade DEF through byes but MJ has caught my eye and if mcpharlin and dawson are back this week it could only be good for him i think. i also had a 3rd option which was to drop cripps this week giving me more cash and get in sidebottom if picked.
So i guess im asking would it be better to finish of the lines where points and consistency are better then the lines that are not ?
Im not going rocky this week as i want 1 more look at him (could be bad move but oh well)
my trades im looking at are -
1/ Vander & Geary out for Goddard & Lambert - goddard completes Fwd line ( Swan, Bont, Gray, Buddy, Dusty, Cameron, Lambert)
2/ Vander & Geary out for M.Johnson & Lambert - Mj starts strengthening Def (Shaw, Higgins, Saad, Kmac, andrews, Mckenzie, Adamson)
Lambert gives me link to fwds, FD and could be back after byes
Rest of my team is
Mids - Fyfe, Pendles, Selwood, Jpk, Cotchin, Griffen, Cripps, Miller, Glenn, Krak
Rck - Mummy, TBC
My bye plan was to upgrade DEF through byes but MJ has caught my eye and if mcpharlin and dawson are back this week it could only be good for him i think. i also had a 3rd option which was to drop cripps this week giving me more cash and get in sidebottom if picked.
So i guess im asking would it be better to finish of the lines where points and consistency are better then the lines that are not ?
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Hi Rowsus,
As always thanks for the good read and the useful insights.
I'm in the rare spot of being ranked in the top 1000 and was wondering who you would trade for vdb this week if you were me.
I'm leaning toward ziebell for some reason as I have a feeling that he may have turned a corner with confidence and could continue to score well. If you take out his 4 in round 3 he has averaged 103 this season. At $430,000 I think he is fairly good value.
I was thinking rocky next week for ??
Cheers in advance.
Hope my team link is up when I post.
Mark
As always thanks for the good read and the useful insights.
I'm in the rare spot of being ranked in the top 1000 and was wondering who you would trade for vdb this week if you were me.
I'm leaning toward ziebell for some reason as I have a feeling that he may have turned a corner with confidence and could continue to score well. If you take out his 4 in round 3 he has averaged 103 this season. At $430,000 I think he is fairly good value.
I was thinking rocky next week for ??
Cheers in advance.
Hope my team link is up when I post.
Mark
Hey Mike,
I have heard one or two others mention that Cripps is potentially a Keeper. I can't see it myself though. Here is his SC/TOG/SC per 100%TOG this season:
53/76/70
DNP
89/81/110
172/81/212
86/82/105
104/76/137
DNP
Most Coaches want a minimum of 105-108 from their M8, some have no choice to settle for less. That means you are aiming for something in the 130-135 SC/100% TOG area, and we can see he has 3 out of 5 games well below that, one on it, and his freak game well above it.
I would keep Cripps, and wait on Rocky. I know you've been keen on Yeo, so get him this week.
I have heard one or two others mention that Cripps is potentially a Keeper. I can't see it myself though. Here is his SC/TOG/SC per 100%TOG this season:
53/76/70
DNP
89/81/110
172/81/212
86/82/105
104/76/137
DNP
Most Coaches want a minimum of 105-108 from their M8, some have no choice to settle for less. That means you are aiming for something in the 130-135 SC/100% TOG area, and we can see he has 3 out of 5 games well below that, one on it, and his freak game well above it.
I would keep Cripps, and wait on Rocky. I know you've been keen on Yeo, so get him this week.
H w2Tk,
Payne is definitely an option for a FD in the 2nd half of the season. Steele not so good. In the 15 Rounds between now, and Round 22:
Adamson can be used in 71 games
Payne is 80 games
Steele in 51.5 games.
As to having 2 FD's, we have seen how quickly we can get in to trouble, and possibly face donuts. I would wait until my team is finished, and I'm happy with my coverage, before I started flirting with 2 FD's. As to having a Def or a Fwd FD, you need to go with the area you are less likely to have a threat of a donut. For most teams, that would possibly be their Fwd area.
Payne is definitely an option for a FD in the 2nd half of the season. Steele not so good. In the 15 Rounds between now, and Round 22:
Adamson can be used in 71 games
Payne is 80 games
Steele in 51.5 games.
As to having 2 FD's, we have seen how quickly we can get in to trouble, and possibly face donuts. I would wait until my team is finished, and I'm happy with my coverage, before I started flirting with 2 FD's. As to having a Def or a Fwd FD, you need to go with the area you are less likely to have a threat of a donut. For most teams, that would possibly be their Fwd area.
Hey Rowsus,
Probably gonna go with the flow this week and bring in Rocky but just wondering for who.
It's out of Lonie, Vandenberg or Heeney providing VB and Lonie both play.
Obviously Heeney will not lose cash but Lonie and VB both will.
If I use VB then it leaves me cash leftover of $100K plus where as Lonie will not leave much at all.
Only really want to use the one trade at this stage as I do not see where the $100K leftover from VB could be used.
Do I go with Vandeberg or Lonie?
By the way..cheers for the Blicavs suggestion..enough to get me over the line against you..
Probably gonna go with the flow this week and bring in Rocky but just wondering for who.
It's out of Lonie, Vandenberg or Heeney providing VB and Lonie both play.
Obviously Heeney will not lose cash but Lonie and VB both will.
If I use VB then it leaves me cash leftover of $100K plus where as Lonie will not leave much at all.
Only really want to use the one trade at this stage as I do not see where the $100K leftover from VB could be used.
Do I go with Vandeberg or Lonie?
By the way..cheers for the Blicavs suggestion..enough to get me over the line against you..
well done on beating me last week. I think it was more than the Blicavs trade though!
Problem solved this week, Vdb out, and Lonie waits for another week.
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Good points as usual. Ill hold him for now and see how he goes.
Lumumba to Yeo is locked. I want to trade Oxley to someone under $452k but not sure who. Was real keen on Thurlow but now with Mackie and Kelly back in im not sure where that leaves him. Docherty is the other im leaning to. And one outside the box is Easton Wood. He is probably too risky but you know I love my PODs!
If you have any defensive options worth a punt im all ears!
Thanks mate
Lumumba to Yeo is locked. I want to trade Oxley to someone under $452k but not sure who. Was real keen on Thurlow but now with Mackie and Kelly back in im not sure where that leaves him. Docherty is the other im leaning to. And one outside the box is Easton Wood. He is probably too risky but you know I love my PODs!
If you have any defensive options worth a punt im all ears!
Thanks mate
Hi THCLT,
depending on what you are going to be happy with, I think you need to make 5 to 7 upgrades. They don't all have to be one up/one down, but let's assume for now that they are. Each upgrade might take and average out lay of $670k. $550 for the up part, and $120 for the down part. That means trading out maybe 12 players, that total $4 million (for 6 upgrades).
Defs: Oxley $385k, Saad $390k, McIntosh $285k, Brown $250k, McKenzie $280k
Mids: Miller $410k, Yolman $420k, Lang $320k
Fwds: Tarrant $350k, Clark $300k, Lonie $260k, Krakouer $350k
Those 12 Rookies on your list add up to.......... $4 million!
You might be right, and you don't need another Def Cash Cow!
I'm not sold on Higgins being a Keeper, so maybe swing him to the Def line, and strengthen your Fwds this week.
depending on what you are going to be happy with, I think you need to make 5 to 7 upgrades. They don't all have to be one up/one down, but let's assume for now that they are. Each upgrade might take and average out lay of $670k. $550 for the up part, and $120 for the down part. That means trading out maybe 12 players, that total $4 million (for 6 upgrades).
Defs: Oxley $385k, Saad $390k, McIntosh $285k, Brown $250k, McKenzie $280k
Mids: Miller $410k, Yolman $420k, Lang $320k
Fwds: Tarrant $350k, Clark $300k, Lonie $260k, Krakouer $350k
Those 12 Rookies on your list add up to.......... $4 million!
You might be right, and you don't need another Def Cash Cow!
I'm not sold on Higgins being a Keeper, so maybe swing him to the Def line, and strengthen your Fwds this week.
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Hi Rowsus,
If you have time I would love your thoughts on my trade plans for this week.
Round 8
IN - Rockliff, Lever
OUT - Vandenberg, Oxley
$167,800
Can regain DPP (MID/FWD) & (DEF/MID) link, just means no loophole in defence this week, need Lever, Brown and McIntosh on field.
The following week I will look to upgrade McIntosh in defence, and possibly (depending on how he goes on the weekend) get Dale in or Salem.
Cheers Goodie
If you have time I would love your thoughts on my trade plans for this week.
Round 8
IN - Rockliff, Lever
OUT - Vandenberg, Oxley
$167,800
Can regain DPP (MID/FWD) & (DEF/MID) link, just means no loophole in defence this week, need Lever, Brown and McIntosh on field.
The following week I will look to upgrade McIntosh in defence, and possibly (depending on how he goes on the weekend) get Dale in or Salem.
Cheers Goodie
Thanks Rowsus, that's what I had roughly calculated myself so good to see that we ended up in the right ball park!
You also obviously know the order of my Rookies culling to come up with those projected prices...
You're right about Higgins, the ideal plan is to eventually move him to D7 to swing with someone in the FWD for cover.
Lonie not named this week helps my trade immensely this week as I hold off trading him 'til next week and use him to loophole Clark tomorrow night.
Hope your trades this week works out well for you and you can start building some momentum with your team.
You also obviously know the order of my Rookies culling to come up with those projected prices...
You're right about Higgins, the ideal plan is to eventually move him to D7 to swing with someone in the FWD for cover.
Lonie not named this week helps my trade immensely this week as I hold off trading him 'til next week and use him to loophole Clark tomorrow night.
Hope your trades this week works out well for you and you can start building some momentum with your team.
Hey Rowsus, my defence has been atrocious so far (especially having to field Brown and McKenzie last week), and I really feel I need to bolster it this week as I'm bleeding too many points back there.
This is what it currently looks like: Simpson, Hibberd, Newnes, Oxley, Saad, McIntosh (Brown, McKenzie)
I am looking at trading Brown to a premium this week and I can afford anyone except Houli.
In particular, I'm looking at Birchall, Murphy and Rance. Who do you like best out of these three?
Or is there anyone else you suggest I take a look at?
Love your work, thanks mate
This is what it currently looks like: Simpson, Hibberd, Newnes, Oxley, Saad, McIntosh (Brown, McKenzie)
I am looking at trading Brown to a premium this week and I can afford anyone except Houli.
In particular, I'm looking at Birchall, Murphy and Rance. Who do you like best out of these three?
Or is there anyone else you suggest I take a look at?
Love your work, thanks mate
G'day Braider,
Ooooooohhh, I hate questions like this! Particularly about Defs, as we're all really guessing on Defs this season!
Rance - consistently been in the 84 - 89 area the last 4 seasons, and averaged 20 games in that time. Given his start, let's say 21 games at 93 this season. That gives him 1,232 points from here on in.
Docherty - you'd hope that Carlton give him every chance to develop this season, and keep him in more creative roles, than defensive roles. Yet to play a full season, so I'm loathe to "give" him 22 games. Let's say 21 games at 92 this season. That gives him 1,271 from here.
Murphy - New Coach, new role as Captain. Between 85 and 99 the last 4 seasons, with an average of 21 games. I will say 20 games at 91.5, so he scores 1,182 from here.
Burgoyne - Last 4 seasons between 80 and 94, with an average of 21 games. I think his high average last season was his Swan song. I will say 20 games at 88. That gives him 1,121 from here.
Birchall - Between 89 and 95 the last 4 seasons, and missed 11 games in that time. Let's give him 20 games at 93.5 this season. That gives him 1,301 from here.
Ooooooohhh, I hate questions like this! Particularly about Defs, as we're all really guessing on Defs this season!
Rance - consistently been in the 84 - 89 area the last 4 seasons, and averaged 20 games in that time. Given his start, let's say 21 games at 93 this season. That gives him 1,232 points from here on in.
Docherty - you'd hope that Carlton give him every chance to develop this season, and keep him in more creative roles, than defensive roles. Yet to play a full season, so I'm loathe to "give" him 22 games. Let's say 21 games at 92 this season. That gives him 1,271 from here.
Murphy - New Coach, new role as Captain. Between 85 and 99 the last 4 seasons, with an average of 21 games. I will say 20 games at 91.5, so he scores 1,182 from here.
Burgoyne - Last 4 seasons between 80 and 94, with an average of 21 games. I think his high average last season was his Swan song. I will say 20 games at 88. That gives him 1,121 from here.
Birchall - Between 89 and 95 the last 4 seasons, and missed 11 games in that time. Let's give him 20 games at 93.5 this season. That gives him 1,301 from here.
Hey Rowsus,
Do you think Rocky will improve his scores?
As I mentioned previously I would like to bring him in but is it a good move.
Every other Tom,**** and Harry will probably bring him in.
Or should I spend more and bring in someone else.
Surely Rocky is value for money if he can recapture some of his form.
Do you think Rocky will improve his scores?
As I mentioned previously I would like to bring him in but is it a good move.
Every other Tom,**** and Harry will probably bring him in.
Or should I spend more and bring in someone else.
Surely Rocky is value for money if he can recapture some of his form.
G'day Maso,
I've always got time for you, you know that!
Interesting you'd consider your Fwd's complete with Cameron at F6! Are you happy with 78-80 from your F6?
I'd be strengthening your Defs. I know Sidey has that big score sitting at the front, but that's only there for one pricing cycle. He'll make a good POD, but I'm confident you'll get him cheaper, later on.
I've always got time for you, you know that!
Interesting you'd consider your Fwd's complete with Cameron at F6! Are you happy with 78-80 from your F6?
I'd be strengthening your Defs. I know Sidey has that big score sitting at the front, but that's only there for one pricing cycle. He'll make a good POD, but I'm confident you'll get him cheaper, later on.
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