Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Bobbie]

Hi Bobbie,
don't be sorry, ask as many questions as you want,
CEY has that inconvenient Rnd 11 bye, so chopping him a little early isn't too big of a crime.
I'm not too keen on D Smith, especially as he's priced at 100. Danger looks like he is priced correctly, or even a little underpriced (108). Danger's last score against Freo was 72, but his 3 before that were: 125, 187, 145 though the 2 big ones were in victoies, can they win this week? I'm not sure. The other option is to go CEY down to Amon, now that Lewis is a late out, and Amon has been announced as not starting sub. Amon is a Rnd 13 bye, plays Melbourne, and while his 2 scores have been low, his SC/100%TOG is an ok 92. So if he can string some 75-80% games together, he might be able to average a useful 70.

How about a double downgrade of Krak/Lonie to Amon/Dale? Gives me around $360K in the kitty. Thinking Krak is better to go (instead of CEY) as he is the sub?

 

[Rowsus]

How about a double downgrade of Krak/Lonie to Amon/Dale? Gives me around $360K in the kitty. Thinking Krak is better to go (instead of CEY) as he is the sub?

If Dale isn't sub, that's not a terrible plan, or alternatively, roll the dice on Wallis, as your team has a pretty friendly draw until you play Geelong in Rnd 16. Sorry to add another option to think about, but I'm considering Wallis myself!

 

[Bobbie]

If Dale isn't sub, that's not a terrible plan, or alternatively, roll the dice on Wallis, as your team has a pretty friendly draw until you play Geelong in Rnd 16. Sorry to add another option to think about, but I'm considering Wallis myself!

Ahhh don't do that to me!!!! Wallis does look promising though but not sure about bringing in a mid pricer at this point. Especially considering my history of poor mid pricer selections!

 

[THCLT]

If Dale isn't sub, that's not a terrible plan, or alternatively, roll the dice on Wallis, as your team has a pretty friendly draw until you play Geelong in Rnd 16. Sorry to add another option to think about, but I'm considering Wallis myself!

Urghhhh....

Would you consider the Wallis trade for cash generation more important than adding Rockliff as your 7th midfield premium?

I've done Lumumba to Wingard trade already and considering Lonie to either Rockliff or Wallis. I'm OK to get Rockliff next week if he goes wild this week, otherwise will assess after his bye.

 

[Rowsus]

Urghhhh....

Would you consider the Wallis trade for cash generation more important than adding Rockliff as your 7th midfield premium?

I've done Lumumba to Wingard trade already and considering Lonie to either Rockliff or Wallis. I'm OK to get Rockliff next week if he goes wild this week, otherwise will assess after his bye.

Wallis and Rocky are both good value, but only Rocky would be considered a Keeper. If in doubt, you should go the Keeper, but it's a tough call. I've turned around on Wallis, and will probably get both this week!

 

[Max Power]

Wallis' projected breakeven and price for the upcoming round?

Congrats on picking him! Fortunately I did too, but like you, had to part with CEY which made Wallis' score slightly less pleasing after the Adelaide game.

For that matter, would you be able to provide CEY's projected breakeven and price too?

Hoping I find solace in these comparisons because I know I should be more stoked with Wallis than I currently am!

Thanks Rowsus.

EDIT: I did a bit of searching and gave it a crack myself (for Wallis at least), would appreciate any feedback

153-31=122 <---excess breakeven
122*440=53,680 <---price increase
325,400+53,680=379,080 <---new price

((379,080*3)/4970)-153-115)=-39.2 <---new breakeven

Assumption of 90 vs Port next week:
90--39.2=129.2
129.2*440=56,848
379,080+56,848=435,928

((435,928/3)/4970)-90-153)=20.1

 

[Rowsus]

Wallis' projected breakeven and price for the upcoming round?

Congrats on picking him! Fortunately I did too, but like you, had to part with CEY which made Wallis' score slightly less pleasing after the Adelaide game.

For that matter, would you be able to provide CEY's projected breakeven and price too?

Hoping I find solace in these comparisons because I know I should be more stoked with Wallis than I currently am!

Thanks Rowsus.

EDIT: I did a bit of searching and gave it a crack myself (for Wallis at least), would appreciate any feedback

153-31=122 <---excess breakeven
122*440=53,680 <---price increase
325,400+53,680=379,080 <---new price

((379,080*3)/4970)-153-115)=-39.2 <---new breakeven

Assumption of 90 vs Port next week:
90--39.2=129.2
129.2*440=56,848
379,080+56,848=435,928

((435,928/3)/4970)-90-153)=20.1

Apart from putting a /3 instead of a *3 in your last B/E calculation, spot on. Well done!

 

[Bobbie]

Hi Rowsus. Do you think Danger and Buddy still present some value next week? Considering bringing both of them in for Tarrant and Miller (pending changeover price - I might fall just short).

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus. Do you think Danger and Buddy still present some value next week? Considering bringing both of them in for Tarrant and Miller (pending changeover price - I might fall just short).

I hate bringing in players just after a huge score. It really feels like you are behind the 8-ball, as you've missed the plum score.

Dangerfield - is already in 21% of teams, and will be priced at 118. I doubt he can average 118 from here, so in that sense, he's not value. Having said that, if he averages anything above 112-114 you'd be happy you took him. Line ball, not a bad pick though.

Franklin - is already in 22% of teams. I just have to believe he'll miss 2 games late in the season. 2014 Rnds 19 and 23, 2013 Rnds 16, 17 and 20, 2012 Rnds 13, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 and 21. He gets a bit of wear and tear, and put in cotton wool to make sure he's ok for the finals. Priced at 94, let's assume he misses 2 games (in those all important SC finals!) and you have 75 points in coverage. Your coverage is probably a bit better late in the season, points-wise, than it is now, hopefully.

2 x 75 + 11 x BF / 13 = 94 means BF (Buddy's score) = 98

So you need him to average 98 from here to be considered value. I think he can do that, and may even possibly go 4 or 5 higher. Just keep your fingers crossed it's only 2 games, and you do have good coverage!

 

[Bobbie]

I hate bringing in players just after a huge score. It really feels like you are behind the 8-ball, as you've missed the plum score.

Dangerfield - is already in 21% of teams, and will be priced at 118. I doubt he can average 118 from here, so in that sense, he's not value. Having said that, if he averages anything above 112-114 you'd be happy you took him. Line ball, not a bad pick though.

Franklin - is already in 22% of teams. I just have to believe he'll miss 2 games late in the season. 2014 Rnds 19 and 23, 2013 Rnds 16, 17 and 20, 2012 Rnds 13, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 and 21. He gets a bit of wear and tear, and put in cotton wool to make sure he's ok for the finals. Priced at 94, let's assume he misses 2 games (in those all important SC finals!) and you have 75 points in coverage. Your coverage is probably a bit better late in the season, points-wise, than it is now, hopefully.

2 x 75 + 11 x BF / 13 = 94 means BF (Buddy's score) = 98

So you need him to average 98 from here to be considered value. I think he can do that, and may even possibly go 4 or 5 higher. Just keep your fingers crossed it's only 2 games, and you do have good coverage!

Thanks. I don't want to chase points either, but Danger has always been on my watch list. In fact, I would have started with him this year but was put off by contract talks. It will be interesting to see if Sloane's return has any impact on his scoring. Do you think Lewis would be better value?

Re Buddy, I think he might be worth the risk. I would have Clark as back up so not too bad.

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks. I don't want to chase points either, but Danger has always been on my watch list. In fact, I would have started with him this year but was put off by contract talks. It will be interesting to see if Sloane's return has any impact on his scoring. Do you think Lewis would be better value?

Re Buddy, I think he might be worth the risk. I would have Clark as back up so not too bad.

On a total points scored, per dollars paid, between Rnds 10 and 23, I don't think there will be much in it, and I think I'd prefer Danger, just.

 

[Mudflap]

Rowsus, Its always hard to let go of players that have performed well but no risk, no reward.

I am considering moving on both Jack Steven and J Riewoldt over the next few weeks and am interested in your thoughts on this?

I have not fully settled on what the trades will be but most likely

After Round 11 Out J Steven in D Beams

and

JROO for NROO but not certain of the timing

 

[Juzzo]

Hi Row,
My team, my ranking and my leagues records are all worse than appalling (can't think of a descriptive word worse than appalling, if I could I would use it).
I have very few round 12 premiums ie Pendles, no Saints or Swans prems, is there any merit to go for the round 12 weekly prize now. I'll have 3 weeks of trading to set it up as best I can.

Like to know your thought on this or if you have tried it before?

Thanks bud

 

[MrMurdoch]

Hi Rowsus

You brought in Wallis last week as a stepping stone, very good move. I'm wondering if the boat has been missed on him as a stepping stone priced at 380k? A downgrade from Cripps would net around 55k. Still not convinced by any of the rookies on offer at the moment so looking for an alternative solution.

Cheers
MrM

 

[Goodie's Guns]

Hi Rowsus,

Thoughts on keeping Clark and Tarrant until their bye in round 13??
Numbers on the field strategy??

Cheers, Goodie

 

[anfa18]

I'm have no confidence in trades this week, any ideas for me? My team is linked.

I have 178k in the kitty.

1. Cripps > Wallis (B/E of -42 and 153 to cycle through) and hope he can string together some more good scores. Somewhat of a cash grab and hope to make 100k+ and upgrade him at some point. Could this be an ok strategy or am i kidding myself?

Alternatively, i could go Cripps > Dumont

2. Tarrant/Clark > Franklin. I am uneasy about Buddy because he will miss games at some point and give me another headache to deal with. Is there anyone else i should look at getting?

Thanks.

 

[stephen]

Hi Rowsus,

What are your thoughts on Heath Shaw for a final backline upgrade? Overpriced, and still likely to miss games, but it's starting to look like he'll be the clear top averaging backman come season's end. Can I afford to pass on him, or will it be bad for my soul to constantly hope he gets injured?

Currently have Simpson, Smith, Hibberd, Yeo and Newnes.

Muchos thanks.

EDIT: Hodge will probably contend for top average but he's surely even more likely to miss games/be managed later on in the season...

 

[Rowsus]

With so many members saying things along the lines of "Enough's enough, see you next season!" I thought I'd dig up these 2 posts from 29/3/2015. Each season Maso asks me to gaze into my crystal ball, and tell him something about his Muppets.

Hey Rowsus , just wanted to say once again top job i love coming to this thread i can find so much info without asking a question because you seemed to have already answered them and it always helps to read another persons take on player we may have a feeling about .
keep up the great work mate,
oh one quick question can you the Muppets getting to the final rounds with some trades intact this year

Hey Maso, I'm glad you're enjoying it.
I've got good news, and bad news for the Muppets. I'm predicting a hellish season for nearly everyone, trade-wise this season. Ruck coverage problems, combining with few Rookies with good JS, and Premiums with dicky shoulders and generally poor game counts this season, will have nearly everyone burning through their trades at a record rate.
SC will become very polarised this season. Those with a focus on League glory, and confidence in their ability to make the finals even though they've eaten a handful or more donuts along the way, will be giggling in delight come SC finals time, as they still have 3 to 5 trades up their sleeves.
Those with a focus on overall ranking will quickly get that "Oh Oh ......" feeling in their stomach this season. They will keep throwing trades on the fire, burning them quicker than last weeks pay, as they keep telling themselves "It will turn soon, I will stop getting injuries/missing Rookies/suspensions", but they won't. It will be the season of SC carnage, and all across the nation SC'ers will be bemoaning their luck! Most ranking chasers will realise all to late, and decide by Round 15 "I've just got to start eating a donut or two here! I've only got 6 trades left, and there is another big storm on the horizon!". Some will ignore the warning, and keep fuelling the fires of despair with their last trades with a "Well, it looks like my season is ¤#"&ed anyway" approach. The number of ghostships will be so high this season, people will not be talking about that they have one in their League, but how many they have in their League! The crystal ball says the Muppets will throw the brakes on trading in Round 15, with 5 left. They will manage to crawl to the finals with one or two in hand, but the damage has been done. The Muppets come across a crafty League oriented opponent in the second week of the finals. This opponent has weathered a storm of donut induced losses, but come through the trial of fire, and has more than a fistful of trades to strengthen his/her team in the last few weeks. For The Muppets it is all too little, too late, and they are quickly put to the sword by a team with more depth.
Heed the warning people! Be prepared to eat a Rookie donut or two early on. Those trades you are burning to cover a 60-70 point donut in Rounds 4 and 5, will be worth a lot more than that in Round 16!

I'm predicting a hellish season for nearly everyone, trade-wise this season.

Yeah, that's looking about right.

Ruck coverage problems

Nope......... not yet, anyway!

few Rookies with good JS, and Premiums with dicky shoulders and generally poor game counts this season, will have nearly everyone burning through their trades at a record rate.

It can't be just me this applies to!

SC will become very polarised this season. Those with a focus on League glory, and confidence in their ability to make the finals even though they've eaten a handful or more donuts along the way, will be giggling in delight come SC finals time, as they still have 3 to 5 trades up their sleeves.

Early days yet, but I'm confident this will apply even more this season, than previous seasons.

Those with a focus on overall ranking will quickly get that "Oh Oh ......" feeling in their stomach this season. They will keep throwing trades on the fire, burning them quicker than last weeks pay, as they keep telling themselves "It will turn soon, I will stop getting injuries/missing Rookies/suspensions", but they won't. It will be the season of SC carnage, and all across the nation SC'ers will be bemoaning their luck! Most ranking chasers will realise all to late, and decide by Round 15 "I've just got to start eating a donut or two here! I've only got 6 trades left, and there is another big storm on the horizon!". Some will ignore the warning, and keep fuelling the fires of despair with their last trades with a "Well, it looks like my season is ¤#"&ed anyway" approach.

Yep, we're definitely seeing the early signs of this. The carnage has just been so consistent this season, and there worst is yet to come!

The number of ghostships will be so high this season, people will not be talking about that they have one in their League, but how many they have in their League!

This is the one I didn't want to get right. Time will tell, but I'm just getting that feeling so early in the season, it will turn out to be true in so many Leagues!

 

[Bobbie]

Hey Rowsus. I have $359K in the kitty (17 trades) which is enough to facilitate two upgrades of Tarrant to Buddy and Ox to Hodge. A couple of questions if you don't mind:

1. Hodge? I know he'll miss some games but he is scoring very well and to be able to get that type of player in defence would be great. It makes my defence look significantly more solid too! (Other cheaper options are Gibson, Simpson or Murphy).

2. Dumont? Am I better to downgrade Miller to Dumont thus increasing my bank balance to $408K for some upgrades during the byes?

This would mean holding off on the Tarrant to Buddy trade until round 13? My only concern is the changeover price blowing out. But makes sense not to bring in another round 12 bye player.

3. Rocky? One other concern is losing Rocky to injury which leaves my midfield thin. So if he does miss, should I look at upgrading Miller instead to add another premo mid? I could possibly cover Rocky but switching Saad into mids for McKenzie which means Lever/McIntosh is on field.

Thanks as always.

 

[Johnsy44]

Hey Row
Am most likely going Krak - Steele as he should get a game soon and he is fwd/mid
should i also trade Miller - Wines? or save a trade and money for the byes? have 17 trades before doing these
and what to do with rocky??
would love your help