Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

sorry about your round 10 result but glad to hear your punting is going well, surely more satisfaction in that!

do you think it's too late to get T Mitchell in? i banked on him not getting games or the average that was suspected. now i think i'm behind without him. he's still reasonably priced, i just fear that i get him in and everything goes the way i suspected?

thanks for your advice, always appreciated!

Hi ****,
thanks for that. Yes, if I had to choose, I would pick good punting over good SC. We have a syndicate that has been betting on the footyquad for about 20 years now. We have a set budget each season, and we have gotten 5 of the last 7, to cover our seasons budget, and to already have a 11.5% profit for the season, even if we don't get another collect! We've had 2 bad seasons in that time, but usually manage something in the 50-80% profit range for the season, with 2 or 3 seasons over 100%.
I'm in the same boat with Mitchell. I am strongly considering getting him this week. I never got the Bont, and feel like the jury is still out on that decision, and never got Mitchell, and that is looking even more regrettable after last weeks score. I think we were right to doubt his role/JS, but wrong not to take the risk on him. His upside is still very good, and probably still outweighs his risk, given the more information we have now. I agree with your fears, but given where his price is getting to, it's an easy fix if it goes wrong, and he obviously still grows from here, price-wise, to make it even easier. Given my situation, I will probably take someone slightly cheaper, and more PODish, but those going ok should probably close that POD others have against them.

 

[Tamuhawk]

Hi Rowsus,

If you have a spare moment. Interested on your thoughts on Gibson, Houli & Bob Murphy and what you think each will average from here on. Looking to upgrade to one next week.

Thanks in advance.

 

[Mudflap]

Hi Rowsus

I have worked through my bye trades and am able to get a full 18 each week and end up with what I think is a completed team (and I will have 8 trades left)

Obviously an injury or two over the next few weeks and it will all fall apart but assuming my luck holds what are your thoughts on the team?

I would like to turn Nicnat into Goldy (but just cant get it done)and I have avoided the highest priced defenders (Hodge and Shaw) as I am not confident in their ability to play every game for the rest of the season.



Simpson, Houli, Gibson, Yeo, Taylor, Lumumba (Saad, Hamling)
Fyfe, Pendlebury, Beams, Selwood, JPK, Sloane, Montagna, Steven (Dumont, Anderson, Adamson)
Blicavs, Nicnat (Brooksby)
Gray, Mitchell, Bennell, Rioli, J. Riewoldt, Ziebell (Steele, Daniel)

 

[Slammer]

Hey Slammer,
My situation is, I have little choice but to go MJ to Smith. Too many LTI's have drained my trades, and to fill my team I will need to take cheaper/compromised picks for D6 and F6. If I don't, I will run out of trades before my team is complete. If you think you can fill your team without taking Smith for MJ, then that would be my suggestion. Downgrading MJ to a Rookie, or upgrading him to a stronger option are my preferred options, but the first one commits me to another trade, and the second one drains my cash resources, and given I have only 13 trades left, I can't afford to either. So Smith it is for me, if you can safely avoid him, I would, if you think you might struggle completing your team safely, then I suggest you follow suit.

Thanks for reply . Much appreciated.
Just one other question??
Sloane? Is he worth bringing back in?
Looks to be underpriced if he can recapture best early form
My concern is I have already paid the price on Rocky twice this year and don't wanna get burnt again.
Bringing in B.Smith via MJ I have approx $550k to spend using Touk Miller

 

[Rowsus]

Hi mate, due to donut and injury issues last week, I was forced to hold off on trading in Oliver Wines.
Do you still think he is a good trade in this week and can maintain his form to be a top 8 midfielder from here onwards?
Thanks!

I think he can be there abouts, or just outside the top 8 from here.

Row, who do you think will be the top 5 mids purely from this point onwards?

Fyfe
Sidebottom - I have to stick with him, and I guess his 59 isn't in the equation for this question/answer!
Beams - starting to play more consistently now
Pendlebury - assuming he is fit!
Hannebery - how did I not start with him?!

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,
Just wanted to get your opinion on my planned trades (barring injuries) over the bye rounds and whether you had any feedback/suggestions for improvement.
I currently have $218,100 in the bank and my team looks like:

DEF: Shaw, Simpson, Yeo, Hibberd, Newnes, Saad (McIntosh, Lever)
MID: Fyfe, Pendlebury, Dangerfield, Kennedy, Selwood, Griffen, Cripps, Ellis-Yolmen (Dumont, McKenzie, Anderson)
RUC: Goldstein, Naitanui (Read)
FWD: Gray, Martin, Swan, Mitchell, Bellchambers, Clark (Tarrant, Dale)

My planned trades over the next three rounds are:
Round 11:
-Bellchambers -> Franklin
-Ellis-Yolmen -> Boston
-McIntosh -> Hamling
Salary: ≈$449,000
Round 12:
-Griffen -> Sloane
-Saad -> Smith
-McKenzie -> Beams
Salary: ≈$52,400
Round 13:
-Tarrant -> Fantasia
-Clark -> Harvey
Salary: ≈$5900

Barring injuries, these trades should see me with 21 players in round 11 (20 if Clark isn't named), 19 players in round 12 (assuming Anderson isn't named and Clark plays) and 20 players in round 13 (assuming Anderson isn't named).
These trades will leave me with 9 trades for the remainder of the season, and my team looking like this:

DEF: Shaw, Simpson, Yeo, Hibberd, Smith, Newnes (Lever, Hamling)
MID: Fyfe, Pendlebury, Dangerfield, Beams, Kennedy, Sloane, Selwood, Cripps (Dumont, Boston, Anderson)
RUC: Goldstein, Naitanui (Read)
FWD: Gray, Swan, Martin, Mitchell, Franklin, Harvey (Fantasia, Dale)

Obviously the weak links of the team that still most likely require upgrading are Newnes and Cripps, so will have to figure out a way to trade them both out after the bye rounds in as little trades as possible.
Also, ideally would not like to bring in Smith and would prefer to bring in a Houli/Hodge type, but I feel like I have to compromise if I want to complete my team as quickly and in as little trades as possible.
Another concern with these trade plans is that they don't leave me with much cover for the remainder of the season, and as much as I'd love to bring in some D7/M9/F7 type players, I'm not sure I have the trades to do so without compromising points on field too much, but would love to hear your opinion.

Sorry about the long message, and thanks in advance Rowsus, love your work mate!

Hey jmack,
it looks like a decent plan, but I would suggest a slightly different order.
In round 11, go McIntosh to Smith, then in round 12 Saad to Hamling. We know Smith will get selected in round 12, and we think Hamling will as well, but if you are going to take the two round 11 bye players, and one of them in round 11 itself, take the safer one first. Then at least if Hamling doesn't get selected, you have options to look at, if he's already in your team, you are stuck.
I like your Harvey trade, and I might trade him in this week myself.
I know too well the concept of a compromised team, and I am heading there myself, with Smith to be my D6 and Taylor to be my F6. It's interesting though, 8 weeks ago we were nearly assuming Smith would be D1!
While it is preferable to have cover, trades themselves represent a form of cover. It will be of no consolation, but I will be in the same boat as you, but probably with 4 less trades!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,
A bit of a difficult question but i'm sure you've dealt with harder ones
Next week i am looking at going Hibberd/Saad/Oxley - Birchall/Houli and Hodge

- At the moment the prices of my trade ins are 462100, 480400 and 544200 respectively
- Hibberd is currently priced at 433500 with a BE of 90, Saad at 381400 with a BE of 77 and Oxley at 380400 with a BE of 78

After doing this weeks trades i have 312200 remaining.
So what i am asking is what is the lowest cumulative total that Hibberd, Saad and Oxley can score for me to be able to attain my intended trade ins for next week. I am assuming it will be somewhere between 210-220 points. Thanks in advance and if this is too hard to work out that's all good!

My calculations have the lowest possible score from your three players at 199... I could be wrong though. Looking forward to Rowsus' clarification.

Hi All is Wells,
congratulations on your big rankings jump last week! That was quite remarkable!

Total of trade ins: $1,486,700
less cash in hand: - $312,200
Required trade value $1,174,500

Total of trade out stock: 1,195,300 (currently)
Less margin for rounding: - $900 (due to rounding of B/E and prices, there is a +/-$300 margin of error)
Less Req trade value: - $1,174,500
Buffer zone available: $19,900

$19,900 / $440 = 45.2 point buffer zone.

I have the B/E's at 91 + 78 + 78 = 247 - 45 buffer = 202
You have B/E's at 90 + 77 + 78 = 245 - 45 buffer = 200

Keep in mind we have built in a -$900 for rounding errors, and that could go the other way.
A more realistic display of the answers could be, assuming the B/E's workout, and that depends on the MN movement is:

using my figures:
total score of 198 or less, you are in trouble
total score 199 to 202, you need to wait and see if the rounding is working for you, or against you.
total score of 203 or more, you are safe.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,
I remember one of Obies' rules to swap a LTI premium like for like, so MJ to Higgins for better or worse.
I have no idea what to do moving forward, I have Tarrant and Clark on the bench with a completed forward line, with no M/F link in the mids.
I have Cripps and Dumont as playing mid rookies, Glenn, Anderson, McKenzie. Backline, 6 reasonable players on the park am happy with at the moment. I am blank after trying all sorts of trades with 13 left following the MJ trade and 66k. Nothing looks or feels right, perhaps I should wait until something presents, maybe the wise move.
I would appreciate any thoughts you may have to move forward with bugger all trades left.
Slainte,
Keith

Keith,

Saw your post when I was planning my trades for the upcoming MBRs so I figured I'll have a look at your team to see if I can help out a buddy. I've come up with a trading plan which will help you get through the MBRs and come out with a complete team, I'm sure Rowan will have his own insight but thought I share my findings with you to give you another option.

As I see it, you have 14 trades and approx. 98K in the bank with a further 5 upgrades to complete your team, namely 3 in DEF and 2 in the MID.

Your team as it stand at the end of Round 10.

View attachment 520

The table below list your current Rookies stock, possible target upgrades and Rookies on the bubble.

View attachment 521
View attachment 522

Below is the trading plan I've come up with through the MBRs.

View attachment 523

After Round 11 trades, this is how your players stack up according to their respective bye rounds.

View attachment 524

The table below highlight the players you have available for each of the bye rounds.

View attachment 525
View attachment 526
View attachment 527

In summary...

Round 11 - field 19 players of which 13 are keepers, this number may increase pending selections of H Goddard, J Glenn & M Clark.

Round 12 - field 19 players of which 14 are keepers.

Round 13 - field 18 players of which 15 are keepers, this number may increase pending selections of H Goddard, J Glenn & J Steele.

This will give you a complete team with 6 trades and approx. 50K (price rise for Lever versus price drop for Sidebottom) going into Round 14.

You'll still have the following Rookies available to cash out and build up your bench cover: Hamling, McKenzie, Dumont, Boston & Glenn and H Goddard & Steele if and when they get some games, otherwise can be utilise as FDs.

I must admit after doing this exercise with your team, it doesn't look that bad at all and certainly has the basis for a strong platform. You, like me and many others, have just had a bad run of injuries since the start of the season and have been using up our trades to fix up LTIs rather than progressing our team along the path to FULL Premium. Despite the challenges, you've done extremely well to maintain the core backbone of your team which makes it easier to build upon. Isn't it amazing how good your team can look to the naked eyes when we remove some of the 'deadwood'?

Good luck for the remaining of the season mate and I hope you come through these MBRs with flying colours. Hope my brief commentary on your team helps you along the way and as your signature says, 'Do Something!'

This is why I love this community, always willing to help each other as best they can. Exceptional effort THCLT.

Wow THCLT! I am speechless, thank you so much for your trouble.

What an awesome piece of work THCLT! You could start your own thread with that sort of thing!!! (My turn next - ha ha!)

Seriously though, that is why I love this forum. Everyone is always so helpful.

Extraordinary!
Anything I added would seem superfluous.
Maybe THCLT should star his own thread. That was quality work!
Thanks for the help, THCLT!

 

[Rowsus]

If Row if could help it would be most appreciated.
I have no idea what to do over the next few rounds.
This is my current team

DEF- Shaw, Pittard, Simpson, Smith Saad, Brown, Mckenzie and Lever
MID- Fyfe, Pendles, JPK, Jelwood, Beams, Wines Cripps, Miller, CEY, Amon and Boston
RUCK- Goldy and Jacobs Mclaren
FWD- Gray, Martin, Swan, Tich, Zorko Tarrant, Clark and Lambert

R11 Bye- B.Smith, J.Lever, C.Ellis-Yolmen, S.Jacobs, D.Zorko, K.Simpson, P.Cripps, D.Martin, K.Lambert, D.Beams
R12 Bye- A.Oxley, N.Brown, S.Pendlebury, D.Swan, N.Fyfe, A.Saad, T.Miller, D.Mckenzie, JP.Kennedy, T.Mitchell, S.McLaren, Boston
R13 Bye- J.Selwood, M.Clark, T.Goldstein, O.Wines, J.Pittard, R.Gray, H.Shaw, K.Amon

i have $120,600 in the bank and 15 trades
Would love any thoughts please
ps would like to keep cripps as long as possible.
Thanks

R11 Bye - Maybe 16 players selected, maybe 17 players selected
R12 Bye- A.Oxley, N.Brown, S.Pendlebury, D.Swan, N.Fyfe, A.Saad, T.Miller, D.Mckenzie, JP.Kennedy, T.Mitchell, S.McLaren, Boston
R13 Bye- J.Selwood, M.Clark, T.Goldstein, O.Wines, J.Pittard, R.Gray, H.Shaw, K.Amon

R12 Bye- Maybe 15 players selected, maybe 17 players seleced
R11 Bye- B.Smith, J.Lever, C.Ellis-Yolmen, S.Jacobs, D.Zorko, K.Simpson, P.Cripps, D.Martin, K.Lambert, D.Beams
R13 Bye- J.Selwood, M.Clark, T.Goldstein, O.Wines, J.Pittard, R.Gray, H.Shaw, K.Amon

R13 Bye- Maybe 18 players selected, maybe 20 players selected
R11 Bye- B.Smith, J.Lever, C.Ellis-Yolmen, S.Jacobs, D.Zorko, K.Simpson, P.Cripps, D.Martin, K.Lambert, D.Beams
R12 Bye- A.Oxley, N.Brown, S.Pendlebury, D.Swan, N.Fyfe, A.Saad, T.Miller, D.Mckenzie, JP.Kennedy, T.Mitchell, S.McLaren, Boston

I will come back to this question, when we have seen the teams, as until then, we are really only guessing what your best move is.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

If you have a spare moment. Interested on your thoughts on Gibson, Houli & Bob Murphy and what you think each will average from here on. Looking to upgrade to one next week.

Thanks in advance.

Hi Tamu,
I will say:
Gibson 93 but will miss more games
Houli 95
Murphy 92

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus

I have worked through my bye trades and am able to get a full 18 each week and end up with what I think is a completed team (and I will have 8 trades left)

Obviously an injury or two over the next few weeks and it will all fall apart but assuming my luck holds what are your thoughts on the team?

I would like to turn Nicnat into Goldy (but just cant get it done)and I have avoided the highest priced defenders (Hodge and Shaw) as I am not confident in their ability to play every game for the rest of the season.



Simpson, Houli, Gibson, Yeo, Taylor, Lumumba (Saad, Hamling)
Fyfe, Pendlebury, Beams, Selwood, JPK, Sloane, Montagna, Steven (Dumont, Anderson, Adamson)
Blicavs, Nicnat (Brooksby)
Gray, Mitchell, Bennell, Rioli, J. Riewoldt, Ziebell (Steele, Daniel)

Hi Mudflap,
it's an ok looking team.
I would be worried about Lumumba at D6 leaking points.
I would also want some bench cover in the Fwd line, as you have a few there that can miss games, and no coverage as it stands.

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks for reply . Much appreciated.
Just one other question??
Sloane? Is he worth bringing back in?
Looks to be underpriced if he can recapture best early form
My concern is I have already paid the price on Rocky twice this year and don't wanna get burnt again.
Bringing in B.Smith via MJ I have approx $550k to spend using Touk Miller

Definitely underpriced, but I wouldn't expect him to get back to "normal" scoring patterns until about round 15 or 16.

 

[Johnsy44]

R11 Bye - Maybe 16 players selected, maybe 19 players selected
R12 Bye- A.Oxley, N.Brown, S.Pendlebury, D.Swan, N.Fyfe, A.Saad, T.Miller, D.Mckenzie, JP.Kennedy, T.Mitchell, S.McLaren, Boston
R13 Bye- J.Selwood, M.Clark, T.Goldstein, O.Wines, J.Pittard, R.Gray, H.Shaw, K.Amon

R12 Bye- Maybe 16 players selected, maybe 17 players seleced
R11 Bye- B.Smith, J.Lever, C.Ellis-Yolmen, S.Jacobs, D.Zorko, K.Simpson, P.Cripps, D.Martin, K.Lambert, D.Beams
R13 Bye- J.Selwood, M.Clark, T.Goldstein, O.Wines, J.Pittard, R.Gray, H.Shaw, K.Amon

R13 Bye- Maybe 18 players selected, maybe 20 players selected
R11 Bye- B.Smith, J.Lever, C.Ellis-Yolmen, S.Jacobs, D.Zorko, K.Simpson, P.Cripps, D.Martin, K.Lambert, D.Beams
R12 Bye- A.Oxley, N.Brown, S.Pendlebury, D.Swan, N.Fyfe, A.Saad, T.Miller, D.Mckenzie, JP.Kennedy, T.Mitchell, S.McLaren, Boston

I will come back to this question, when we have seen the teams, as until then, we are really only guessing what your best move is.

Thanks a lot mate

 

[Bobbie]

Hi Rowsus. I'm hoping you can help out with a few trade ideas over the bye rounds. I've never really done well in these rounds! I somehow managed to jump up a few spots last week and found myself ranked 1642 overall. No chance for the prize but I am aiming to finish as well as possible this year.

I have 15 trades and $109,600.

My first thoughts were not to trade this week, but then I thought I should at least consider one (or two) downgrades to build up the bank balance. With that in mind, I'm not sure whether to go CEY to Boston and/or McIntosh to Hamling.

Next week I would look at perhaps bringing in some round 11 defenders like Murphy/Houlii/Gibson/Simpson. But who do I trade out? I am tempted to keep Brown for bench cover but is it better to cash him in? If I don't trade CEY this week I could upgrade him to a defender next week and bring Saad to the mids.

I also need to look at another forward premium but I think I need to wait until round 13 for the better options. I'm happy to hold Cripps a bit longer if need be and concentrate on my other lines. Also have Rocky and hoping he returns in a few weeks (or is that wishful thinking?) - maybe he needs to go?

I guess my biggest concern is generating enough funds to facilitate a number of upgrades over the byes.

Anyway, thanks for considering this post. I understand if it's too complicated and you don't have time!!

 

[Aneil915]

Who do you think will be the best backs from now on? I know this is a pretty hard one to get correct.

My current Backline keepers are Simpson, Shaw, Hibberd, and Newnes.

Looking at Smith, Birchall, Hodge, Houli or McDonald..

I see you think Houli will average 95 from now to the end of the season. How about the ones i have listed?

 

[Bones]

Hi Rowsus, what a turd of a result for you last week - I feel for ya bro! Glad you're making money though.

I'm in a similar boat to you - LTIs and some dubious coaching decisions have left me struggling to afford a team full of decent premos - heading into the byes needing 6 premos (2 def, 4 mid) and that includes keeping Newnes . I'm thinking of going for broke over the byes - here's the plan:

RF 11: Out - Johnson, CEY and Cripps / In - Smith, Wines and Lambert
RD12: Out - Saad and Oxley / In - Beams and Hamling (switching Adamson to def)
Rd13: Out - Clark, Sheed and Hogan / In - Hanners, Sloane and Fantasia (switching Lambert to Fwd)

This would leave me with approx $125k (on today's values), 6 trades, one more Def premium to get and a no decent bench coverage (def - Adamson/Lever/Hamling, mid - Amon, Glenn and McKenzie, fwd - Lambert and Fantasia). Hopefully I'll get an opportunity to move Lambert to the mids at some stage to create the swing.

I suspect I will end up just getting fat on donuts due to a lack of trades but I'd appreciate your thoughts on the above - whilst I think I may as well go for broke I don't want to drag my leagues down by being reckless with trades or end up with a totally catastrophic rank!

 

[All is Wells]

Hi All is Wells,
congratulations on your big rankings jump last week! That was quite remarkable!

Total of trade ins: $1,486,700
less cash in hand: - $312,200
Required trade value $1,174,500

Total of trade out stock: 1,195,300 (currently)
Less margin for rounding: - $900 (due to rounding of B/E and prices, there is a +/-$300 margin of error)
Less Req trade value: - $1,174,500
Buffer zone available: $19,900

$19,900 / $440 = 45.2 point buffer zone.

I have the B/E's at 91 + 78 + 78 = 247 - 45 buffer = 202
You have B/E's at 90 + 77 + 78 = 245 - 45 buffer = 200

Keep in mind we have built in a -$900 for rounding errors, and that could go the other way.
A more realistic display of the answers could be, assuming the B/E's workout, and that depends on the MN movement is:

using my figures:
total score of 198 or less, you are in trouble
total score 199 to 202, you need to wait and see if the rounding is working for you, or against you.
total score of 203 or more, you are safe.

Thanks Rowsus. Much appreciated

 

[whiteTiga2k]

Hi Rowsus!

Just a quick one, who would you rate higher and to finish the season off stronger? Wines or Ward?
Also, Alex Pierce vs Boston? Who do you think the smarter pick would be? Better scoring of Boston vs job security of Pierce?

 

[TeeButOne]

Rowsus,

As with a few others, I'm keep to bring in a replacement for Michael Johnson. Excluding the players with the R11 BYE, who would you be particularly keen on as a replacement? Personally, I'm looking at the 3 Geelong boys in Enright, Taylor and Mackie. All 3 good value options (all set to jump in price, all under $450k), but can't really decide on which would be best. Only other cheaper option I was considering was someone like McGovern.

Any thoughts would be appreciated.

 

[MrMurdoch]

Hey Rowsus

What are your thoughts in a POD midfielder like Brandon Ellis? Bit expensive at $549700 but is very consistent, hasn't dropped below 90 all year and is currently averaging 107.1. Averaged 101.66 for the first 6 round when Richmond were playing average footy but since their turn of form 4 weeks ago he has averaged a very solid 115.25.

How do you see him faring from here? I see Richmond as more likely to maintain their current form, than revert back to their form of the first 6 rounds. Main reason for looking at him is not entirely keen on other R11 bye Premo mids (Sloane, Lewis, Cotchin).

Look forward to hearing your thoughts.
Cheers
MrM