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Summary of NEW GUERNSEY NUMBERS FOR 2016
ADELAIDE
Paul Seedsman — 11
Curtly Hampton — 17
Wayne Milera — 30
Troy Menzel — 32
Dean Gore — 36
Tom Doedee — 39
Paul Hunter* — 37
Jonathon Beech* — 1
Alex Keath* — 42
Hugh Greenwood* — 20
Other number changes: Riley Knight swaps his 39 for No. 3 in 2016.
BRISBANE
Ryan Bastinac — 4
Tom Bell — 7
Josh Walker — 14
Jarrad Jansen — 16
Josh Schache — 23
Eric Hipwood — 30
Ben Keays — 1
Rhys Mathieson — 36
Sam Skinner — 41
Reuben William* — 47
CARLTON
Jack Silvagni — 2
Harry McKay — 10
Sam Kerridge — 11
Jed Lamb — 13
Liam Sumner — 19
Lachie Plowman — 20
Jacob Weitering — 23
David Cunningham — 28
Charlie Curnow — 30
Andrew Phillips — 34
Daniel Gorringe — 37
Andrew Gallucci* — 45
Matthew Wright — 46
Jesse Glass-McCasker* — 47
Matt Korcheck* — 48
COLLINGWOOD
Adam Treloar — 7
James Aish — 14
Jeremy Howe — 38
Brayden Sier — 35
Tom Phillips — 21
Rupert Wills — 33
Ben Crocker — 39
Josh Smith* — 40
Tim Golds* 41 —
Darrean Wyatt* — 47
Other number changes: Jordan De Goey from 35 to 2 and Matthew Goodyear from 38 to 27.
ESSENDON
Darcy Parish — 3
Aaron Francis — 10
Matthew Leuenberger — 22
Craig Bird — 24
Alex Morgan — 25
Mason Redman — 27
Mitch Brown — 28
Yestin Eades — 35
Michael Hartley — 36
Gach Nyuon* — 37
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti* — 43
Tom Wallis* — 46
Other number changes: Marty Gleeson from 35 to 8, Orazio Fantasia from 46 to 13, Adam Cooney from 13 to 17.
FREMANTLE
Harley Bennell — 4
Ethan Hughes — 15
Darcy Tucker — 18
Harley Balic — 24
Sam Collins — 40
Shane Yarran — 41
Matthew Uebergang* — 42
Ryan Nyhuis* — 43
GEELONG
Zac Smith — 9
Wylie Buzza — 12
Matthew Hayball — 15
Scott Selwood — 16
Ryan Gardner — 20
Lachie Henderson — 25
Sam Menegola — 27
Patrick Dangerfield — 35
Jock Cornell* — 17
James Parsons* — 34
Tom Ruggles* — 36
GOLD COAST
Jarrad Grant — 2
Matt Rosa — 3
Callum Ah Chee — 13
Daniel Currie — 15
Brayden Fiorini — 29
Mackenzie Willis — 34
Josh Shoenfeld — 36
Jesse Joyce* — 38
Ryan Davis* — 39
Tom Keogh* — 40
Darcy Macpherson* — 44
Cam Loersch* — 45
Other number changes: Touk Miller from 44 to 11, Sean Lemmens 40 to 23.
GWS GIANTS
Jacob Hopper — 2
Matthew Kennedy — 15
Steve Johnson — 17
Dawson Simpson — 26
Harrison Himmelberg — 27
Matthew Flynn — 30
Sam Reid* — 50
Daniel Lloyd* — 38
Other number changes: Jack Steele from 38 to 11, Jake Barrett 43 to 28, Jarrod Pickett 26 to 14 and Jeremy Finlayson from 47 to 31.
HAWTHORN
Jack Fitzpatrick — 32
Ryan Burton — 35
Kieran Lovell — 36
Blake Hardwick — 37
Luke Surman* — 38
Kade Stewart* — 40
Conor Glass* — 44
Other number changes: Billy Hartung from 40 to 4, Angus Litherland from 30 to 17, Dallas Willsmore from 38 to 20 and Zac Webster from 36 to 31.
MELBOURNE
Clayton Oliver — 13
Jake Melksham — 18
Sam Weideman — 26
Liam Hulett — 27
Tom Bugg — 32
Mitch King — 34
Ben Kennedy — 35
Josh Wagner* — 42
Viv Michie* — 22
Joel Smith* — 44
Other number changes: Christian Petracca from 26 to 5, Jake Spencer from 42 to 33.
NORTH MELBOURNE
Jed Anderson — 3
Ryan Clarke — 13
Ben McKay — 23
Mitchell Hibberd — 39
Corey Wagner — 41
Declan Mountford — 42
Farren Ray* — 44
Other number changes: Aaron Mullett swaps 41 for No. 17.
PORT ADELAIDE
Charlie Dixon — 22
Riley Bonner — 26
Aidyn Johnson - 31
Will Snelling* — 34
Dan Houston* — 43
Cameron Hewett* - 44
RICHMOND
Chris Yarran — 13
Andrew Moore — 15
Daniel Rioli — 17
Jacob Townsend — 21
Oleg Markov — 31
Nathan Broad — 35
Callum Moore* — 36
Mabior Chol* — 41
Adam Marcon* — 44
Other number changes: Nick Vlastuin to swap 31 for No. 1, Ben Lennon from 35 to 7, Kane Lambert from 48 to 23.
ST KILDA
Jake Carlisle - 2
Nathan Freeman - 10
Jade Gresham - 22
Brandon White - 31
Bailey Rice - 37
Nick O'Kearney* - 33
Nick Coughlan* - 38
Other number changes: Jack Lonie from 37 to 13, Hugh Goddard from 33 to 23.
SYDNEY SWANS
Callum Mills — 14
Callum Sinclair — 18
Tyrone Leonardis — 30
Michael Talia — 32
Jordan Dawson — 34
Colin O’Riordan* — 38
Tom Papley* — 41
Sam Murray* — 46
Kyle Galloway* — 47
Other number changes: Alex Johnson from 34 to 2.
WEST COAST
Jack Redden — 8
Jonathan Giles — 22
Lewis Jetta — 23
Luke Partington — 24
Tom Cole — 28
Kurt Mutimer — 38
Matthew Allen — 43
Jordan Snadden* — 41
Brent Colledge* — 21
Alec Waterman* — 32
Simon Tunbridge* — 42
Other number changes: Tom Lamb moves from 28 to No. 10.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
Matthew Suckling — 1
Josh Dunkley — 20
Kieren Collins — 32
Marcus Adams — 33
Bradley Lynch* — 36
Jed Adcock* — 44
Luke Goetz* — 40
*Denotes rookie-listed players
ADELAIDE
Paul Seedsman — 11
Curtly Hampton — 17
Wayne Milera — 30
Troy Menzel — 32
Dean Gore — 36
Tom Doedee — 39
Paul Hunter* — 37
Jonathon Beech* — 1
Alex Keath* — 42
Hugh Greenwood* — 20
Other number changes: Riley Knight swaps his 39 for No. 3 in 2016.
BRISBANE
Ryan Bastinac — 4
Tom Bell — 7
Josh Walker — 14
Jarrad Jansen — 16
Josh Schache — 23
Eric Hipwood — 30
Ben Keays — 1
Rhys Mathieson — 36
Sam Skinner — 41
Reuben William* — 47
CARLTON
Jack Silvagni — 2
Harry McKay — 10
Sam Kerridge — 11
Jed Lamb — 13
Liam Sumner — 19
Lachie Plowman — 20
Jacob Weitering — 23
David Cunningham — 28
Charlie Curnow — 30
Andrew Phillips — 34
Daniel Gorringe — 37
Andrew Gallucci* — 45
Matthew Wright — 46
Jesse Glass-McCasker* — 47
Matt Korcheck* — 48
COLLINGWOOD
Adam Treloar — 7
James Aish — 14
Jeremy Howe — 38
Brayden Sier — 35
Tom Phillips — 21
Rupert Wills — 33
Ben Crocker — 39
Josh Smith* — 40
Tim Golds* 41 —
Darrean Wyatt* — 47
Other number changes: Jordan De Goey from 35 to 2 and Matthew Goodyear from 38 to 27.
ESSENDON
Darcy Parish — 3
Aaron Francis — 10
Matthew Leuenberger — 22
Craig Bird — 24
Alex Morgan — 25
Mason Redman — 27
Mitch Brown — 28
Yestin Eades — 35
Michael Hartley — 36
Gach Nyuon* — 37
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti* — 43
Tom Wallis* — 46
Other number changes: Marty Gleeson from 35 to 8, Orazio Fantasia from 46 to 13, Adam Cooney from 13 to 17.
FREMANTLE
Harley Bennell — 4
Ethan Hughes — 15
Darcy Tucker — 18
Harley Balic — 24
Sam Collins — 40
Shane Yarran — 41
Matthew Uebergang* — 42
Ryan Nyhuis* — 43
GEELONG
Zac Smith — 9
Wylie Buzza — 12
Matthew Hayball — 15
Scott Selwood — 16
Ryan Gardner — 20
Lachie Henderson — 25
Sam Menegola — 27
Patrick Dangerfield — 35
Jock Cornell* — 17
James Parsons* — 34
Tom Ruggles* — 36
GOLD COAST
Jarrad Grant — 2
Matt Rosa — 3
Callum Ah Chee — 13
Daniel Currie — 15
Brayden Fiorini — 29
Mackenzie Willis — 34
Josh Shoenfeld — 36
Jesse Joyce* — 38
Ryan Davis* — 39
Tom Keogh* — 40
Darcy Macpherson* — 44
Cam Loersch* — 45
Other number changes: Touk Miller from 44 to 11, Sean Lemmens 40 to 23.
GWS GIANTS
Jacob Hopper — 2
Matthew Kennedy — 15
Steve Johnson — 17
Dawson Simpson — 26
Harrison Himmelberg — 27
Matthew Flynn — 30
Sam Reid* — 50
Daniel Lloyd* — 38
Other number changes: Jack Steele from 38 to 11, Jake Barrett 43 to 28, Jarrod Pickett 26 to 14 and Jeremy Finlayson from 47 to 31.
HAWTHORN
Jack Fitzpatrick — 32
Ryan Burton — 35
Kieran Lovell — 36
Blake Hardwick — 37
Luke Surman* — 38
Kade Stewart* — 40
Conor Glass* — 44
Other number changes: Billy Hartung from 40 to 4, Angus Litherland from 30 to 17, Dallas Willsmore from 38 to 20 and Zac Webster from 36 to 31.
MELBOURNE
Clayton Oliver — 13
Jake Melksham — 18
Sam Weideman — 26
Liam Hulett — 27
Tom Bugg — 32
Mitch King — 34
Ben Kennedy — 35
Josh Wagner* — 42
Viv Michie* — 22
Joel Smith* — 44
Other number changes: Christian Petracca from 26 to 5, Jake Spencer from 42 to 33.
NORTH MELBOURNE
Jed Anderson — 3
Ryan Clarke — 13
Ben McKay — 23
Mitchell Hibberd — 39
Corey Wagner — 41
Declan Mountford — 42
Farren Ray* — 44
Other number changes: Aaron Mullett swaps 41 for No. 17.
PORT ADELAIDE
Charlie Dixon — 22
Riley Bonner — 26
Aidyn Johnson - 31
Will Snelling* — 34
Dan Houston* — 43
Cameron Hewett* - 44
RICHMOND
Chris Yarran — 13
Andrew Moore — 15
Daniel Rioli — 17
Jacob Townsend — 21
Oleg Markov — 31
Nathan Broad — 35
Callum Moore* — 36
Mabior Chol* — 41
Adam Marcon* — 44
Other number changes: Nick Vlastuin to swap 31 for No. 1, Ben Lennon from 35 to 7, Kane Lambert from 48 to 23.
ST KILDA
Jake Carlisle - 2
Nathan Freeman - 10
Jade Gresham - 22
Brandon White - 31
Bailey Rice - 37
Nick O'Kearney* - 33
Nick Coughlan* - 38
Other number changes: Jack Lonie from 37 to 13, Hugh Goddard from 33 to 23.
SYDNEY SWANS
Callum Mills — 14
Callum Sinclair — 18
Tyrone Leonardis — 30
Michael Talia — 32
Jordan Dawson — 34
Colin O’Riordan* — 38
Tom Papley* — 41
Sam Murray* — 46
Kyle Galloway* — 47
Other number changes: Alex Johnson from 34 to 2.
WEST COAST
Jack Redden — 8
Jonathan Giles — 22
Lewis Jetta — 23
Luke Partington — 24
Tom Cole — 28
Kurt Mutimer — 38
Matthew Allen — 43
Jordan Snadden* — 41
Brent Colledge* — 21
Alec Waterman* — 32
Simon Tunbridge* — 42
Other number changes: Tom Lamb moves from 28 to No. 10.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
Matthew Suckling — 1
Josh Dunkley — 20
Kieren Collins — 32
Marcus Adams — 33
Bradley Lynch* — 36
Jed Adcock* — 44
Luke Goetz* — 40
*Denotes rookie-listed players
Can anyone help me out with player prices for the followng 3 players:
Conor McKenna (ESS)
Josh Deluca (FRE)
Michael Korcheck (CAR)
Once I have those prices I have a spreadsheet ready with names, prices, positions etc if anyone wants a copy. Just PM me (might not get back to you until after the new year though).
Conor McKenna (ESS)
Josh Deluca (FRE)
Michael Korcheck (CAR)
Once I have those prices I have a spreadsheet ready with names, prices, positions etc if anyone wants a copy. Just PM me (might not get back to you until after the new year though).
A number of threads have caught my attention recently and have been working away at the back of my brain. In particular KLo30's mid-price madness and Rowsus's work need to be attributed. Here's the nub of my thinking - what value does your SC team have to attain to be fully upgraded using some measures that are found in KLo30 and Rowsus's threads? I stress that what is presented is a minimum value approach and you will see why that is a minimum as I explain the calculations.
Keeper Status (directly taken from KLo30):
• Defenders – 95+ Top 10 (90 acceptable) - set at 95
• Midfield – 110+ (105) - set at 110
• Rucks – 108+ Top 4 (100) - set at 108
• Forwards – 100+ (95) - set at 100
The magic number (MN) at the start of the 2016 is very close to $5400.
If my starting team is a (22 man) fully premium / keeper then my onfield side looks like (assuming the MN stays constant):
D - 6 players*95 points*$5400 = $3,078,000
M - 8*110*$5400 = $4,752,000
R - 2*108*$5400 = $1,166,400
F - 6*100*$5400 = $3,240,000
Total - $12,236,400
You will also have 8 players on the bench and lets assume your keepers play every week (no injuries, no suspensions) so your bench players are close to minimum priced - lets assume an average of $110,000 each. Total bench value $880,000
Total value of team $13,116,400
You started with $10,000,000 so by the time your upgrade is complete you will need an extra $3,116,400. Well not exactly, because you were clever enough to start with 14 guys who turned into keepers. Lets assume you started with 14 premiums at around an average price of $540,000 and 14 rookies at an average price of $175,000. Yes, this approach requires a (or close to a) G&R strategy. So you needed, in our best case scenario, to upgrade 8 players. I have not presented the numbers for alternatives such as a 15 premium, 13 rookie strategy.
Let's define a premium player as a function of the keepers defined above and continue to hold the MN constant.
D - 95*$5400 = $513000
M - 110*$5400 = $594000
R - 108*$5400 = $583200
F - 100*$5400 = $540000
Now recall you need to upgrade 8 players from your Rookies. If we are generous and assume an average rookie price of $175000 (i.e., you went for quality) and you need an average of $550000 (an average out of thin air based on premiums' prices above) then you need an average $375000 for each of the 8 upgrades. Cheaper initial Rookies mean a higher average upgrade gain.
As you have an abundance of trades available this might be thought of as a more realistic average of $187500 per trade for 16 trades (please ensure you check the time needed for these strategies with the numbers in the KLo30 article).
So, what do we have from this analysis? At worst a reality check about the strategy you need to win SC; 16 trades each averaging $187,500 may not be that easy! Perhaps the kernel of an idea about how to allocate your initial spend; have you thought about what proportion of the initial $10m you will put into each category (D:M:R:F)? Perhaps 23:40:10:27? Or, you might think through the simplifying assumptions and consider the affect of different assumptions. For example, if the average price of your bench players at the end of the upgrades is higher than $110,000 and the average profit per trade remains as specified, what does that imply for the average price of the players you traded out?
Or you might consider the possibility that this assumption - no injuries, no suspensions - might be unrealistic!
Please feel free to point out any basic errors I have made.
Keeper Status (directly taken from KLo30):
• Defenders – 95+ Top 10 (90 acceptable) - set at 95
• Midfield – 110+ (105) - set at 110
• Rucks – 108+ Top 4 (100) - set at 108
• Forwards – 100+ (95) - set at 100
The magic number (MN) at the start of the 2016 is very close to $5400.
If my starting team is a (22 man) fully premium / keeper then my onfield side looks like (assuming the MN stays constant):
D - 6 players*95 points*$5400 = $3,078,000
M - 8*110*$5400 = $4,752,000
R - 2*108*$5400 = $1,166,400
F - 6*100*$5400 = $3,240,000
Total - $12,236,400
You will also have 8 players on the bench and lets assume your keepers play every week (no injuries, no suspensions) so your bench players are close to minimum priced - lets assume an average of $110,000 each. Total bench value $880,000
Total value of team $13,116,400
You started with $10,000,000 so by the time your upgrade is complete you will need an extra $3,116,400. Well not exactly, because you were clever enough to start with 14 guys who turned into keepers. Lets assume you started with 14 premiums at around an average price of $540,000 and 14 rookies at an average price of $175,000. Yes, this approach requires a (or close to a) G&R strategy. So you needed, in our best case scenario, to upgrade 8 players. I have not presented the numbers for alternatives such as a 15 premium, 13 rookie strategy.
Let's define a premium player as a function of the keepers defined above and continue to hold the MN constant.
D - 95*$5400 = $513000
M - 110*$5400 = $594000
R - 108*$5400 = $583200
F - 100*$5400 = $540000
Now recall you need to upgrade 8 players from your Rookies. If we are generous and assume an average rookie price of $175000 (i.e., you went for quality) and you need an average of $550000 (an average out of thin air based on premiums' prices above) then you need an average $375000 for each of the 8 upgrades. Cheaper initial Rookies mean a higher average upgrade gain.
As you have an abundance of trades available this might be thought of as a more realistic average of $187500 per trade for 16 trades (please ensure you check the time needed for these strategies with the numbers in the KLo30 article).
So, what do we have from this analysis? At worst a reality check about the strategy you need to win SC; 16 trades each averaging $187,500 may not be that easy! Perhaps the kernel of an idea about how to allocate your initial spend; have you thought about what proportion of the initial $10m you will put into each category (D:M:R:F)? Perhaps 23:40:10:27? Or, you might think through the simplifying assumptions and consider the affect of different assumptions. For example, if the average price of your bench players at the end of the upgrades is higher than $110,000 and the average profit per trade remains as specified, what does that imply for the average price of the players you traded out?
Or you might consider the possibility that this assumption - no injuries, no suspensions - might be unrealistic!
Please feel free to point out any basic errors I have made.
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