A number of threads have caught my attention recently and have been working away at the back of my brain. In particular KLo30's mid-price madness and Rowsus's work need to be attributed. Here's the nub of my thinking - what value does your SC team have to attain to be fully upgraded using some measures that are found in KLo30 and Rowsus's threads? I stress that what is presented is a minimum value approach and you will see why that is a minimum as I explain the calculations.
Keeper Status (directly taken from KLo30):
• Defenders – 95+ Top 10 (90 acceptable) - set at 95
• Midfield – 110+ (105) - set at 110
• Rucks – 108+ Top 4 (100) - set at 108
• Forwards – 100+ (95) - set at 100
The magic number (MN) at the start of the 2016 is very close to $5400.
If my starting team is a (22 man) fully premium / keeper then my onfield side looks like (assuming the MN stays constant):
D - 6 players*95 points*$5400 = $3,078,000
M - 8*110*$5400 = $4,752,000
R - 2*108*$5400 = $1,166,400
F - 6*100*$5400 = $3,240,000
Total - $12,236,400
You will also have 8 players on the bench and lets assume your keepers play every week (no injuries, no suspensions) so your bench players are close to minimum priced - lets assume an average of $110,000 each. Total bench value $880,000
Total value of team $13,116,400
You started with $10,000,000 so by the time your upgrade is complete you will need an extra $3,116,400. Well not exactly, because you were clever enough to start with 14 guys who turned into keepers. Lets assume you started with 14 premiums at around an average price of $540,000 and 14 rookies at an average price of $175,000. Yes, this approach requires a (or close to a) G&R strategy. So you needed, in our best case scenario, to upgrade 8 players. I have not presented the numbers for alternatives such as a 15 premium, 13 rookie strategy.
Let's define a premium player as a function of the keepers defined above and continue to hold the MN constant.
D - 95*$5400 = $513000
M - 110*$5400 = $594000
R - 108*$5400 = $583200
F - 100*$5400 = $540000
Now recall you need to upgrade 8 players from your Rookies. If we are generous and assume an average rookie price of $175000 (i.e., you went for quality) and you need an average of $550000 (an average out of thin air based on premiums' prices above) then you need an average $375000 for each of the 8 upgrades. Cheaper initial Rookies mean a higher average upgrade gain.
As you have an abundance of trades available this might be thought of as a more realistic average of $187500 per trade for 16 trades (please ensure you check the time needed for these strategies with the numbers in the KLo30 article).
So, what do we have from this analysis? At worst a reality check about the strategy you need to win SC; 16 trades each averaging $187,500 may not be that easy! Perhaps the kernel of an idea about how to allocate your initial spend; have you thought about what proportion of the initial $10m you will put into each category (D:M:R:F)? Perhaps 23:40:10:27? Or, you might think through the simplifying assumptions and consider the affect of different assumptions. For example, if the average price of your bench players at the end of the upgrades is higher than $110,000 and the average profit per trade remains as specified, what does that imply for the average price of the players you traded out?
Or you might consider the possibility that this assumption - no injuries, no suspensions - might be unrealistic!
Please feel free to point out any basic errors I have made.