Opinion Rowsus Tables And Analysis Of 2015 Season

[Rowsus]

Brandon Ellis

Season - 22 games at 100.3 (2014 22 games at 96.9)
MCG - 14 games at 103.0 (MCG wins 9 at 102.6, MCG losses 5 at 103.8)
Etihad - 2 games at 87.0 (Etihad wins 2 at 87.0, Etihad losses 0 at 0.0)
Interstate - 6 games at 98.3 (Interstate wins 4 at 104.3, Interstate losses 2 at 86.5)
Wins - 15 games at 100.9
Losses - 7 games at 98.9

Of note...
The way Ellis finished 2014, he looked nearly a good thing to break out in 2015. His first 8 games that year averaged 77, and his last 14 games averaged 108. That was his 3rd season, and his analysis looked like this: 21/56.1, 20/81.6, 22/96.9. Coming into 2015 he had played 65 games, and as previously said, his last 14 games had averaged 108. That is perfect break out territory! So coming into 2016 he has now played 88 games, is coming off a 100 season and only averaged 94 in his last 6 games. Being under 100 games, and coming into his 5th season, he is still considered in break out territory. Did he just tread water last season, before he goes big this season? Or has he found his level already? In 2014 he registered 110+ scores 7 times, but more importantly, 3 of them were against Syd, Haw and Freo. In 2015 he managed another 7 110+ scores, with two of them being against Freo. There are probably too many well priced Mids to be taking a punt on Ellis, but I wouldn't totally dismiss him as a potential break out prospect in 2016.

 

[Rowsus]

Alex Rance

Season - 22 games at 97.0 (2014 17 games at 88.6)
MCG - 14 games at 106.4 (MCG wins 9 at 110.9, MCG losses 5 at 98.4)
Etihad - 2 games at 92.0 (Etihad wins 2 at 92.0, Etihad losses 0 at 0.0)
Interstate - 6 games at 76.8 (Interstate wins 4 at 83.8, Interstate losses 2 at 63.0)
Wins - 15 games at 101.1
Losses - 7 games at 88.3

Of note...
Up until the 2015 season it was pretty rare for a tall Defender to record a SC ave above 90. Tall players who aren't Rucks, and don't kick near 3 goals/game struggled to do it, and tall Defs even more so. Leading into the 2015 season Rance had recorded 4 solid seasons of SC averages between 84.3 and 88.6. There is nothing in his stats that support a sudden jump to 97.0. Lets look at his 100+ scores each season:
2011: 132, 130, 125, 103, 100
2012: 127, 108, 108, 107
2013: 147, 127, 112, 111, 108, 104
2014: 125, 107, 106, 104, 102
2015: 156, 154, 123, 120, 115, 112, 111, 109, 109, 105, 103
It's not rocket science to see, that if Rances stats haven't changed measurably that much, that there must have been some sort of notional shift in Defs, particularly tall Defs, scoring in 2015. The question that you need to guess the answer to is, will that continue in 2016? No one, except the good people at CD, can answer that. We saw it with players like McDonald as well. Games that in previous seasons might have recorded a mid to high 90's type score, were suddenly being rewarded with 125+ scores. The safest thing to do, is assume things will at least make some sort of correction back to how they were, pre 2015. That would mean that, while a Rance type player is still a chance to be a top 8 Def, that they are probably over priced for what they'll return.
The other interesting thing with Rances scores in 2015 is, he averaged 103 in his 15 games on Large grounds, and 84 in his 7 games on Small and Medium grounds. This fits well with his description/type of play. He plays as a tall Def, but is only 194cm tall (the cut off on my tall player stats is 193cm). The larger grounds afford him the space to run off his not so mobile opposition players. He uses this to effect in taking intercept marks, or running the ball out of Defence. He also only averaged 77 Interstate, but it should be noted that 5 out of 6 of those Interstate games were on Small or Medium sized grounds, so it could be one, the other, or both that affect him.
Richmonds 2016 Draw: LLSMLLLLMLLL bye LSSLLMLLLS Bold = Interstate

 

[Rowsus]

Anthony Miles

Season - 22 games at 97.5 (2014 12 games at 99.9)
MCG - 14 games at 92.2 (MCG wins 9 at 94.9, MCG losses 5 at 87.4)
Etihad - 2 games at 86.0 (Etihad wins 2 at 86.0, Etihad losses 0 at 0.0)
Interstate - 6 games at 113.7 (Interstate wins 4 at 115.3, Interstate losses 2 at 110.5)
Wins - 15 games at 99.1
Losses - 7 games at 94.0

Of note...
The more I look at Miles' numbers, the more I get the feeling he was a poor man's Lachie Neale, and was also underscored in 2015. If that is true, and given he is coming into his 5th season, and only his 2nd full season, with 46 games under his belt, he is ripe to break out. One little aside, he out Selwoods Selwood! Miles has actually had more frees for high tackles than any other player since the stat was first kept in 2013, including Selwood! Most contested ball players have low Disp/Eff %'s and most also have poor K:H ratios. Let's look at the group of players from 2015 that managed to play 18 or more games, have more than 10 CP's/game, and a Disp/Eff over 75% (includes finals), and list them by the highest average of CP's first:
Miles - 22 games, 11.6 CP's, D/E 75.2% - ave disp 12.0 Kicks, 11.6 H'balls
Neale - 24 games, 11.5 CP's, D/E 75.4% - ave disp 13.4 Kicks, 14.1 H'balls
Ward - 22 games, 11.4 CP's, D/E 75.4% - ave disp 11.5 Kicks, 13.8 H'balls
Pendlebury - 22 games, 11.0 CP's, D/E 76.4% - ave disp 14.6 Kicks, 14.3 H'balls
That's it, they are the only 4. It's pretty elite company to be amongst!
Who were the players that went close to making this list, but just missed out because their D/E% was higher than 71%, but lower than 75%?
Gray R - 21 games, 14.1 CP's, D/E 72.6% - ave disp 12.0 Kicks, 14.6 H'balls
Mundy - 23 games, 13.2 CP's, D/E 73.3% - ave disp 13.1 Kicks, 13.8 H'balls
Armitage - 21 games, 12.4 CP's, D/E 72.2% - ave disp 13.4 Kicks, 15.0 H'balls
Hannebery - 24 games, 11.3 CP's, D/E 71.2% - ave disp 13.0 Kicks, 17.0 H'balls
Mitchell S - 24 games, 11.1 CP's, D/E% 73.1 - ave disp 15.6 Kicks, 15.6 H'balls
Shuey - 25 games, 10.5 CP's, D/E 73.4% - ave disp 10.9 Kicks, 12.8 H'balls
Mitchell T - 19 games, 10.1 CP's, D/E 71.1% - ave disp 11.2 Kicks, 15.9 H'balls
Treloar - 21 games, 10.0 CP's, D/E 74.4% - ave disp 12.6 Kicks, 15.2 H'balls
It's a pretty impressive list of players he's amongst there, and most of them are good SC players. Of these 12 players, only Miles and Pendlebury had positive K:H ratios! Keep in mind, Miles has only played 46 games, so he should have plenty of improvement to come! He will likely increase his possession count, and hopefully hit the scoreboard a bit more in 2016.

 

[Rowsus]

Bachar Houli

Season - 22 games at 95.6 (2014 22 games at 83.2)
MCG - 14 games at 99.6 (MCG wins 9 at 96.7, MCG losses 5 at 104.8)
Etihad - 2 games at 73.0 (Etihad wins 2 at 73.0, Etihad losses 0 at 0.0)
Interstate - 6 games at 94.0 (Interstate wins 4 at 96.8, Interstate losses 2 at 88.5)
Wins - 15 games at 93.5
Losses - 7 games at 100.1

Of note...
Coming into the 2015 season Houli was very close to 27 years old, and had played 114 games in 8 seasons. Generally that means his scoring pattern is pretty much set, and anything more than 3 or 4 more than what his history predicts can usually be taken as a spike. Houli's game and average history is: 4/39, 10/84, 7/73, 5/83, 22/89, 22/83, 20/92, 22/83, and finally 22/96 last season. Before last season he looked like a 84 to 89/game player, that had eeked out a 92 in there. There is more history to say that is correct, and closer to his range, than last seasons 96. While he is pretty consistent, I would follow the majority history, that says he will likely be 88 to 92 in 2016, rather than the one off history that will have some thinking he might go 96 again in 2016. To further support this opinion, Houli had career highs/bests in: Kicks, Disposals, Goal kicking accuracy, Tackles, Rebound 50's, Frees Against, Contested Marks and Bounces, and was fairly close to career highs/bests in: Handballs, Goals, Contested Possessions and Marks Inside 50. That's a lot of stats to have career highs/bests, or near career highs/bests in, if you are wanting him to come out and replicate his season!

 

[Rowsus]

Jack Riewoldt

Season - 22 games at 91.4 (2014 22 games at 83.9)
MCG - 14 games at 84.8 (MCG wins 9 at 83.8, MCG losses 5 at 86.6)
Etihad - 2 games at 93.5 (Etihad wins 2 at 93.5, Etihad losses 0 at 0.0)
Interstate - 6 games at 106.0 (Interstate wins 4 at 121.3, Interstate losses 2 at 75.5)
Wins - 15 games at 95.1
Losses - 7 games at 83.4

Of note...
Riewoldt had his lowest goal tally since 2009, and career highs in Disposals and Inside 50's, and also a near career high in SC. For those that didn't see many Richmond games in 2015, this is because in quite a number of games Riewoldt spent a good deal of time playing up the ground. He was pretty good at it, too! Riewoldt averaged 119 in his 4 winning games on small grounds, and when you see that he only had 1 score higher than that 119 average in all 17 of his games on Large and Medium grounds, it shows how significant it is. Also, given he's not known for his tank, if he is going to come up the ground to play, AND get back and kick goals, then Small grounds are going to be his friend. He's played 180 games now, and has struggled for SC relevance. It might be a bit optimistic to think he can reverse that trend now.

 

[Rowsus]

Jack Steven

Season - 22 games at 104.3 (2014 17 games at 84.8)
MCG - 2 games at 101.5 (MCG wins 1 at 90.0, MCG losses 1 at 113.0)
Etihad - 12 games at 109.9 (Etihad wins 3 at 114.7, Etihad losses 9 at 108.3)
Interstate - 8 games at 96.5 (Interstate wins 2 at 89.5, Interstate losses 6 at 98.8)
Wins - 6 games at 102.2
Losses - 16 games at 105.1

Of note...
It's interesting to compare Steven's 2013 and 2015 seasons.
Similarities:
[table="width: 600"]
[tr]
[td][/td]
[td]games[/td]
[td]disp's[/td]
[td]Rb50's[/td]
[td]Fr For[/td]
[td]Fr Ag[/td]
[td]Sc shots[/td]
[td]Goal ass[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2013[/td]
[td]22[/td]
[td]591[/td]
[td]34[/td]
[td]28[/td]
[td]21[/td]
[td]24[/td]
[td]17[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2015[/td]
[td]22[/td]
[td]591[/td]
[td]36[/td]
[td]28[/td]
[td]21[/td]
[td]24[/td]
[td]15[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

Differences:
[table="width: 600"]
[tr]
[td][/td]
[td]Gls.Bh[/td]
[td]Tackles[/td]
[td]Ins50's[/td]
[td]Clear[/td]
[td]Clang[/td]
[td]CP's[/td]
[td]bounces[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2013[/td]
[td]16.8[/td]
[td]87[/td]
[td]85[/td]
[td]118[/td]
[td]59[/td]
[td]239[/td]
[td]51[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2015[/td]
[td]9.15[/td]
[td]151[/td]
[td]120[/td]
[td]95[/td]
[td]79[/td]
[td]195[/td]
[td]20[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]
In 2013 Steven averaged 110, in 2015 104.
I think the biggest concern with Steven, is that he only managed 3 120+ scores: 171, 123 & 122. If I was looking to take him in 2016, I would much rather see another say 3 120+ scores in there, even if it was at the sacrifice of that average bending 171. In 2013 he had 6 120+ scores: 161, 157, 150, 133, 127 & 123, and he averaged 129 in their 5 wins that season. He just seems very awkwardly priced compared to some other players, and like most Mids, he might benefit from playing in a team that will win more games, unfortunately, that's probably not St Kilda in 2016.

 

[Rowsus]

Leigh Montagna

Season - 17 games at 111.0 (2014 20 games at 89.4)
MCG - 1 games at 71.0 (MCG wins 1 at 71.0, MCG losses 1 at 0.0)
Etihad - 11 games at 113.9 (Etihad wins 3 at 122.7, Etihad losses 8 at 110.6)
Interstate - 5 games at 112.6 (Interstate wins 1 at 117.0, Interstate losses 4 at 111.5)
Wins - 5 games at 111.2
Losses - 12 games at 110.9

Of note...
Extraordinarily consistent, with only 4 of his 17 scores below 100. Between 2006 and 2014 Montagna only missed 8 games in 9 years, so the fact that he missed 5 last season is either an aberration, or proof that age is finally catching up with him. He has averaged higher than his 111 price tag in 3 of the last 6 seasons, but only once in the last 3 seasons. If you are looking for a reason to maybe not start Montagna in your Forward line, as you think he might get a little cheaper, maybe this will help. In the last 3 seasons, Montagna has scored 110+ scores in 47% of his games played on Small and Medium sized grounds, but only in 22% of his games played on Large grounds. In Round 3 he has Collingwood at the MCG, and Round 4 Hawthorn at Aurora, both Large grounds. Nothing will drop a players price quicker than a couple of consecutive low(er) scores. Throw in Port at Adelaide Oval in Round 1, and I am happy to start without Montagna, and wait and see if this starting Draw doesn't drop his price a little. By my rough calculations, if Montagna starts 90, 110, 90, 90 he will be down to $550k, with a B/E of 146 coming into Round 5.

 

[Rowsus]

Jack Newnes

Season - 22 games at 90.7 (2014 22 games at 81.2)
MCG - 2 games at 77.5 (MCG wins 1 at 83.0, MCG losses 1 at 72.0)
Etihad - 12 games at 89.7 (Etihad wins 3 at 98.3, Etihad losses 9 at 86.8)
Interstate - 8 games at 95.6 (Interstate wins 2 at 103.5, Interstate losses 6 at 93.0)
Wins - 6 games at 97.5
Losses - 16 games at 88.2

Of note...
Newnes was much maligned early last season, but he really was a case of, if you did your homework right, you probably would have kept him. Many lumped him in the same basket as Lumumba, and even traded Newnes out at the expense of keeping Lumumba! The bottom line was, his D/E% was way down in the early games, something that was not likely to continue, and he was given run with roles in Rounds 4 and 10 when Weller was missing. Those that said "enough is enough", and knee-jerk traded Newnes out after Round 6 at $386k must have been kicking themselves later. His Price went up from there, and peaked at $511k after Round 15.
Lets look at Newnes' season broken up:
First 10 Rounds, when Weller played - 8 games at 86.8, not completely horrible.
First 10 Rounds, when Weller missed - 2 games at 56.5, played a different role
Last 13 Rounds, Weller played them all - 12 games at 99.1
He really was a case of, you've had him through the hard times, and you could see reasons for his poor scores, that would likely fix themselves. You may as well ride him out! Those that traded him out after Round 6, at $386k, saw him average 96.6 after they traded him out. He was pretty much exactly what they were looking for, when they traded him out. A Defender under $400k, that would average 95+!
At the start of the season Newnes will have just turned 23, and will have 69 games under his belt. If he was still available as a Def, I would be starting with him. But he's not, so I won't.

I managed to have a good start to 2015 injury wise so was one of those that dumped Newnes (after round 5) for Gibson who would have averaged less over the remainder of the year.

As someone who has always held faith with premiums its another reminder that you have to back your premiums in for the long term, if you have to trade quickly for tempo then cashing rookies in early is the way to go.

Only Trade premiums when they are injured/suspended/dropped etc.

The trade saved will be useful when injuries hit, and even if you have a good run early in the season they always hit at some stage.

Yes, I traded Newnes out when he was about $386k, yes it was one of the reasons I sucked last year at SC, yes yes yes... :/

 

[Rowsus]

David Armitage

Season - 21 games at 109.7 (2014 15 games at 93.6)
MCG - 2 games at 101.0 (MCG wins 1 at 63.0, MCG losses 1 at 139.0)
Etihad - 11 games at 107.5 (Etihad wins 3 at 124.0, Etihad losses 8 at 101.4)
Interstate - 8 games at 114.8 (Interstate wins 2 at 131.5, Interstate losses 6 at 109.2)
Wins - 6 games at 116.3
Losses - 15 games at 107.0

Of note...
If we were to be honest with ourselves, most of us would say that Armitage's 2015 season caught us by surprise. The question that raises is, was it a spike, or is it the level we should expect from now on?
Let's pull apart a few things, and see what we can find.
The last 8 games of 2014, Armitage averaged 108. He had missed Rounds 5 to 12 because he had split his knee open on Dangerfields boot. The cut was so deep and wide, it revealed his knee cap. The doctors did a quick sew job to get him back on the ground, leaving some dirt and grass in there they would clean out later. He got an infection, and was hospitalized while it was treated. As you can imagine, he lost some fitness in those weeks, so let's forgive him his first 3 games back, where he scored; 94, 85, 63. This might indicate he was getting to this level, but there is more to it.
Armitage was at the very outer limit of break out territory for a Midfielder at the start of 2015. He was 26, with 107 games under his belt, and most Midfielders that are going to be SC relevant have put their hands up by that stage. Armitage's highest season, where he had played more than 3 games, was 93. Hardly foretelling of a break out ahead! The biggest thing that changed, as far as Armitage was concerned coming into 2015, was that Hayes and Jones (Clinton) had retired. In fact, if we look at that hot streak at the end of 2014, we see that Jones missed from rounds 16 to 21, right when the hot streak started! So let's break Armitages last 3 seasons before 2015 down into groups.
Seasons 2012/13/14 - 57 games at 90.4
When all 3 of Armitage, Hayes and Jones played - 38 games at 88.8
When Armitage and Jones played, and Hayes missed - 6 games at 97.2
When Armitage and Hayes played, and Jones missed - 9 games at 96.8
When Armitage played, and Hayes and Jones missed - 4 games at 80.3
Of course, it's not as simple as this, as there are other factors/players involved as well, but looking at those figures, to me it suggests he benefitted from one of those two missing, but for one reason or another (attention?) suffered when both missed. He obviously seemed to overcome that in 2015, but was possibly helped (attention-wise) with the re-emergence of Montagna and Steven. To me it all adds up to, that Armitage's 2015 is around the level we can expect, and erring on the side of safety, he might drop a point or two in 2016, depending on how the Saints perform.

 

[Rowsus]

Nick Riewoldt (FTB)

Season - 17 games at 90.8 (2014 22 games at 91.7)
MCG - 1 games at 135.0 (MCG wins 1 at 135.0, MCG losses 1 at 0.0)
Etihad - 10 games at 93.5 (Etihad wins 3 at 108.0, Etihad losses 7 at 87.3)
Interstate - 6 games at 79.0 (Interstate wins 2 at 114.5, Interstate losses 4 at 61.3)
Wins - 6 games at 114.7
Losses - 11 games at 77.8

Of note...
NRoo is pretty simple really. Here is a break up of his last 3 seasons:
60 games at 96.2 (wins 14 at 127.7, losses 46 at 86.6)
In wins 31 points and higher: 6 games at 135.8
In wins from 1 point to 30 points: 8 games at 121.6
In draws and losses to 30 points: 15 games at 99.6
In losses 31 point and higher: 31 games at 79.6
St Kilda struggle to win away from Etihad, unless playing Melbourne, or undermanned expansion teams (they've disappeared now!), and only have 1 game in their first 4 at Etihad. They then have winnable games against GWS and Melbourne at Etihad in rounds 5 and 6. That might make NRoo a good pick for AF, where you can trade around those games, but it makes him in the too hard basket for SC.

 

[Rowsus]

Tom Mitchell (FTB)

Season - 17 games at 104.5 (2014 6 games at 83.8)
SCG - 7 games at 111.6 (SCG wins 5 at 123.6, SCG 2 losses at 81.5)
ANZ - 2 games at 106.0 (ANZ wins 1 at 128.0, ANZ 1 losses at 84.0)
Spotless - 0 games at 0.0 (Spotless wins 0 at 0.0, Spotless losses 0 at 0.0)
Interstate - 8 games at 97.9 (Interstate wins 6 at 111.7, Interstate losses 2 at 56.5)
Wins - 12 games at 118.0
Losses - 5 games at 72.0

Of note...
Because his name has been thrown around as a SC prospect for a number of years now, it is easy to overlook that Mitchell still won't have turned 23 when the season starts! No one doubts his ability to get the ball, or put a score together. What most Coaches doubt is his consistency, and his role within the team. Both with good reason. Along with his 7 120+ games (41% of the games he played!), he also had: 36 (23% TOG), 49 (64%), 77 (83%) and 80 (85%). The highs are thrilling, the lows are frustrating to the point of pulling your hair out!
Most Coaches are dismissing Mitchell as a prospect for 2016, for the reasons listed above, and the fact that he is now Mid only. The general feel of this consensus is that he might struggle to score at an acceptable Mid level, especially given the high level of competition within the Sydney side. JPK, Hannebery, Parker and Jack, all there competing with Mitchell for those precious on-ball minutes, it raises the question, how do they perform when all 5 of them are in the team? Well, let's take a look! Mitchell has played 35 H & A games, and all 5 of them have played together in 29 of those games. Obviously things like sub and injury affected scores need to be taken into account, so instead of comparing SC scores in those games, let's look at their SC/100%TOG.

Keep in mind, these tables are constructed off the information from Mitchell's first 3 seasons, with only 39 games under his belt, and we are comparing his numbers to 2 hardened veterans, a player in his prime, and 100 game player. Surely he is entitled to come off looking a little worse than those players? You would also expect a player with only 39 games under his belt to have room for improvement. Certainly his TOG% is open to improvement, as he has only averaged 76% in his 39 games so far, and we'd usually expect a seasoned Mid to reach something like 81-83% TOG. So how does Mitchell's first 35 Home & Away games (he has played 4 finals) compare to the other 4 players we are looking at first 35 Home & Away games?

So he is miles ahead of those 4 players, for the same stage of career.
Given injuries are an unknown quantity, we have to go into the coming season assuming all 5 of these players will play most of the season together. That leads us to one of two conclusions, if we trust the information above.
Firstly, Mitchell is the highest scoring player of this Group (in terms of points/minute), when they all play together. He also has the most upside for improvement, especially in the key TOG% area. If you are entertaining taking JPK or Hannebery in your starting team, surely these figures must make Mitchell look even better, especially as he is at a better price.
Secondly, if Mitchell looks like a bit of trap selection, surely you must also be putting a pen through the other 4, unless one of them gets injured, and the five of them aren't playing together.
Mitchell is a pretty decent FTB, with a 118 average in wins (SC/100%TOG 140.5), and a 72 average in losses (SC/100%TOG 112.1). Given Sydney's fairly open Draw at the start of the season, Mitchell is a chance to push his price up early on.
Rnd 1 - Collingwood ANZ
Rnd 2 - Carlton Etihad
Rnd 3 - GWS SCG
Rnd 4 - Adelaide AO
Rnd 5 - WC SCG
Rnd 6 - Brisbane Gabba
Rnd 7 - Essendon ANZ
Rnd 8 - Richmond MCG

Thanks for including the ToG data in TMitch's appraisal Rowsus. With vests a thing of the past (hopefully permanently) and another pre-season under his belt it would be nice to think his very low SC scores will soon be seen as outliers that should be censored.

 

[Rowsus]

Josh P. Kennedy

Season - 22 games at 110.2 (2014 20 games at 113.9)
SCG - 8 games at 107.9 (SCG wins 6 at 107.3, SCG 2 losses at 109.5)
ANZ - 3 games at 118.0 (ANZ wins 2 at 124.5, ANZ 1 losses at 105.0)
Spotless - 1 games at 129.0 (Spotless wins 1 at 129.0, Spotless losses 0 at 0.0)
Interstate - 10 games at 107.9 (Interstate wins 7 at 110.1, Interstate losses 3 at 102.7)
Wins - 16 games at 112.1
Losses - 6 games at 105.3

Of note...
JPK can look a bit disinterested sometimes, and I've noticed his SC score seems to be even worse than what we might think, in some of those games. He really did seem a bit harshly treated in some games though:
Rnd 3 vs GWS 61 - 12K, 12H, 9Cl (58% D/E, 4 clangers)
Rnd 10 vs GC 62 - 10K, 13H, 6Cl (57% D/E, 3 clangers)
Rnd 9 vs Carl 73 - 11K, 11H, 6Cl (59% D/E, 4 clangers)
Rnd 19 vs Geel 83 - 14K, 18H, 9Cl (56% D/E, 5 clangers)
Yes, the D/E's are down, but let's be fair and say we have all seen numbers like these attract better scores. It wouldn't be out of the question to see each of those games scored say 20 points higher. That would have put JPK at around 114 for the season, and to be honest, that's more like what he probably deserved. Having said that, there is no guarantee a similar fate won't befall him in 2016. The other interesting thing to consider with JPK, and his high clearance numbers (3rd best average for the season with 7.7, behind Fyfe 8.6 and Prestia 8.1), is what difference the Ruck combo of Sinclair/Tippett will have on those numbers. Without wanting to belittle Pykes efforts, I would think it would only make them better!

Fabulous work Rowsus - but that is no surprise.

One potential factor with the Swans' midfield is the possibility that McVeigh will spend more time at half back and thus some of his 2015 possessions will be up for grabs (sorry about the pun). Your point on Sinclair / Tippett is spot on. IMO, erroneous to simply assume this year's stats will mimic last year's.

Does JPK tend to score poorly against lower ranked teams? From what I can see of his last 2-3 season, his worst scores have come against GWS (61, 91), Carlton (73, 88), Gold Coast (62), Geelong (about 3-4 scores between 70-100), Adelaide (same as Geelong), St.Kilda (39), 2014 WCE, Collingwood (56 - was tagged by the handCa***), 2013 Bulldogs (68). Geelong and Adelaide don't add to my point, but are there for completeness.

I've started him for each of the last 4 season, and he's been solid as a rock. Plays lots of games and tons up regularly. I'm worried with easier games against Collingwood, Carlton, GWS, Adelaide, WCE, Bris then Essendon, that he could ease himself into the year, and let Tom Mitchell do his FTB thing.

What are your thoughts on starting him?

I think there was a theory floating around last year (if not earlier) that he sometimes looked disinterested, especially against weak sides.

I remembering ruling him out as a VC/C option a number of times for this reason.

I have another theory about JPK (and the Sydney mids in general). Just having watched their scoring over the past few seasons it just seems like they take it in turns to score big and I feel it might be a planned rotation by the coaching staff to share the load around during the season for development and rest purposes. I have absolutely no research or evidence to support this, but its a theory which I think has some merit. (for what its worth, I think this theory could be applied to GWS as well).

Perhaps the games where JPK looks disinterested is where he has been given the lesser responsibility for that particular game?

I'm with you all on this one.
I think they sometimes give JPK a rest, just for management sake, and in those games he looks a bit disinterested. I noticed in some of the Swans games I watched he was playing more like a Half Forward Flanker, than the main extractor, for quite a deal of the game. Nearly every time I noticed this his SC score reflected the role change. It was never a whole game, but long enough to drag his score down, sometimes significantly. The obvious inference is, he doesn't run as far, doesn't crash as many packs, and generally gets a "mini-rest" to help him get through the season.
I certainly wouldn't let such a thing dissuade me from picking him. He has shown he can achieve an acceptable level of SC scoring over a season, even with these games thrown in. If the theory is right, this might occur again in Round 3 against GWS (SCG), or Round 7 against Essendon (ANZ), but would be surprised if it happened fully in both. I'm sure if this is a plan by the Swans, the plan also includes the option to very quickly throw it out the window, and get him into the action, if it looks like they could lose the game.
Are there any stats we can produce that might add weight to this theory?
I'd love to have access to heat maps, as they'd be pretty much definitive, but let's look at a few simple things that might point to our theory holding water.
Possible proof of disinterest:
Rnd 10 2015 - JPK played 90% TOG, and recorded no Tackles. In his 158 game career, this has only happened twice. Rnd 19 2012 vs Carlton (late in the season, another case of rest before the finals?), and in Rnd 21 2014, where he only played 18% TOG and went off injured.
Possible proof of role change:
In Rnd 3, 9 & 10 in 2015 his number of Inside 50's/disposal were higher, than his season average. In the H & A season he had 92 Inside 50's from 664 Disposals. That equates to 13.9% of his Disposals being Inside 50's. In those 3 games he had 15 Inside 50's from 69 Disposals, and that equates to 21.7% of his disposals being Inside 50's. It might be a stretch, but it could be an indicator he was playing on or around the 50 metre arc. Without the heat maps, I'm not sure where else to find some proof.

Interesting theory gents. It looks like most of the Swans mids play 22 games except when they have a "proper" injury, so perhaps it is working for them, if true. Good to see some stats to back it up as well.

 

[Rowsus]

Daniel Hannebery

Season - 22 games at 114.5 (2014 16 games at 101.0)
SCG - 8 games at 127.6 (SCG wins 6 at 126.0, SCG 2 losses at 132.5)
ANZ - 3 games at 115.3 (ANZ wins 2 at 122.0, ANZ 1 losses at 102.0)
Spotless - 1 games at 81.0 (Spotless wins 1 at 81.0, Spotless losses 0 at 0.0)
Interstate - 10 games at 107.1 (Interstate wins 7 at 114.7, Interstate losses 3 at 89.3)
Wins - 16 games at 117.8
Losses - 6 games at 105.8

Of note...
Hannebery by his own admission wasn't fit enough in 2014. If we are generous, and say he took a few games to get fit at the start of the season, and another couple to get fit, when returning from a 6 week injury, he averaged 129 when fully fit in 9 games. When he was reported as having the best pre-season of his career, and reported himself fitter than ever, it pointed to a good season ahead in 2015. If he comes through the pre-season like he did in 2015, then there isn't too many reasons he can't have a similar season to 2015. That's the good news if you like him for 2016.
The bad news is, even taking that improved fitness level into account, I am always wary of players with over 120 games, repeating the efforts of a season that contains a lot of career highs. Hannebery's season highs in 2015 were:
Kicks (+1.54/game on previous high), H'balls (+3.16), Disposals (+4.71), Goal Kicking % (+8%), Tackles (+0.02), Rb 50's (+0.17), In 50's (+1.20), Clearances (+0.14), Contested Possessions (+0.54), Uncontested Possessions (+3.10), Bounces (+0.04). Sure, some of them weren't huge improvements on previous marks, but any slip back on those numbers needs to be compensated for in another area, if he is to maintain his average. As you can see, he doesn't have many areas that didn't set new highs in 2015!

 

[Rowsus]

Luke Parker

Season - 19 games at 99.7 (2014 22 games at 108.5)
SCG - 7 games at 90.0 (SCG wins 5 at 81.6, SCG 2 losses at 111.0)
ANZ - 3 games at 116.0 (ANZ wins 2 at 123.0, ANZ 1 losses at 102.0)
Spotless - 0 games at 0.0 (Spotless wins 0 at 0.0, Spotless losses 0 at 0.0)
Interstate - 9 games at 101.9 (Interstate wins 6 at 109.0, Interstate losses 3 at 87.7)
Wins - 13 games at 100.6
Losses - 6 games at 97.8

Of note...
Parker is a fantastic player, and would probably be lauded as a SC hero, if he was playing for one of 12 or 13 other teams. But he isn't. Here is a short list as to why I won't even be considering him for my team in 2016.
1) He is coming into his 6th season, and has played 101 games, which puts him on the outer edge of breakout territory. It's nearly now or never, outside of a potential spike season somewhere in his future.
2) He only has 5 100+ scores in losing games: 130, 117, 105, 102 and 101. That is from 28 losing games in the 90 H & A games he has played.
3) His good scores seem mainly dependent on other players being missing from the team. His good season in 2014 is even an example of this. He averaged 122 in the 8 games that Hannebery (6) and JPK (2) missed, and 101 in the 14 games they all played together.
4) He has a losing "Head to Head" (comparing their weekly scores) record against JPK, Hannebery, Jack and Mitchell. Here is a break up how they look:
JPK has beaten Parker: 15 to 7 in 2013, 12 to 8 in 2014, 12 to 7 in 2015, total 39 to 22 the last 3 seasons.
Hannebery over Parker: 12 to 9 in 2013, 8 all in 2014, 13 to 6 in 2015, total 33 to 23 the last 3 seasons.
Jack has beaten Parker: 14 to 8 in 2013, 11 all in 2014, Parker wins 11 to 8 in 2015, total 33 to 30 the last 3 seasons.
Mitchell beat Parker 7 to 5 in 2013 and 8 to 7 in 2015, lost to Parker 2 to 4 in 2014, total 17 to 16 in the last 3 seasons.
It's not definitive, but it does place him at least 3rd or 4th of these 5 players, unless he produces something special in 2016
5) In the tables in the Mitchell write up (post #111 above), Parker comes of worst, except in the first 35 games table.
6) He visually, from the many Sydney games I watched in 2015, seemed to be behind Mitchell in the on-ball rotation. Given Mitchell probably has a bit more growth in him, as a player, I would think that trend would only become more apparent this season.
As I said, great player, and probably a SC hero, if he was playing at quite a number of other Clubs, but he needs an injury at Sydney, to get the role we'd want him to have.

 

[Rowsus]

Kieren Jack

Season - 22 games at 98.5 (2014 21 games at 102.7)
SCG - 8 games at 100.9 (SCG wins 6 at 102.8, SCG 2 losses at 95.0)
ANZ - 3 games at 106.7 (ANZ wins 2 at 115.5, ANZ 1 losses at 89.0)
Spotless - 1 games at 99.0 (Spotless wins 1 at 99.0, Spotless losses 0 at 0.0)
Interstate - 10 games at 94.1 (Interstate wins 7 at 106.0, Interstate losses 3 at 66.3)
Wins - 16 games at 105.6
Losses - 6 games at 79.7

Of note...
Jack managed a 112 season back in 2012, and has been on a slide ever since. His average for 2015 was over 100, until his 18% TOG, 36 SC point game in Rnd 23, when he injured his knee (not badly, 3 to 4 week injury). I think he is some chance to bounce back in 2016, but it would seem more likely that bounce back would be closer to 2014's 103, than 2013's 109. His stats in 2016 were nearly all at 4 or 5 year lows, so following the same logic (but in reverse), as to when a player has a season with nearly all career highs, it would seem unlikely he would repeat this bad season. He is only 28, if he was 3 or 4 years older, it might be different. He scored significantly higher in wins, than losses in 2015, but realistically, I can't see him reaching the desired level for our SC teams in 2016.

 

[Rowsus]

Dane Rampe

Season - 22 games at 84.9 (2014 22 games at 76.0)
SCG - 8 games at 84.8 (SCG wins 6 at 89.5, SCG 2 losses at 70.5)
ANZ - 3 games at 63.7 (ANZ wins 2 at 70.0, ANZ 1 losses at 51.0)
Spotless - 1 games at 100.0 (Spotless wins 1 at 100.0, Spotless losses 0 at 0.0)
Interstate - 10 games at 89.8 (Interstate wins 7 at 92.4, Interstate losses 3 at 83.7)
Wins - 16 games at 89.0
Losses - 6 games at 73.8

Of note...
My first look at Rampe had me thinking he is progressing well after 3 seasons of: 20/60, 22/76, 22/85, but upon delving deeper, I am not so enthusiastic. Firstly, his progression seems to be nearly as much TOG, as it is SC points, as the following table shows.

The other reason I'm a bit cold on him is, aside from McVeigh when he is DPP, Sydney hasn't produced too many SC relevant Defs. This could be coincidence, or it could be game plan. I'm not willing to take the risk and find out. I'm certainly not precluding him from breaking out, I just think the odds are against him doing it.

You don't count Malceski as a SC def when at Sydney Rowsus?

I might have been a bit harsh on him.
In 2014 his Rb 50's were down, his In 50's, Tackles, Goal assists, Goals were all up.
ie he played more as a wing than Defender, when looking at Sydneys structure/style of game.
The 3 seasons prior to that he averaged 91, 76 and 68, which probably don't cut it.

saw that rampe played a bit of midfield in the practise match do you think he might be a lock now?

Hard to call a $457k speculative pick a lock I would have thought. A positional change could be good, but Rampe has been floating through the midfield and up forward for a while now. I don't see him playing a permanent midfield role at the expense of Jack / JPK / Hanners / Parker et al. The only thing I can think of is that the Swans might just want to roll players through different positions on the ground due to the reduced interchange cap. ie McVeigh goes back and Rampe has a run in the middle for example.

I guess that's one to watch in the NAB cup. His scoring is certainly going in the right direction, averaging 59, 76, 84 the past 3 seasons and averaging 21.3 games per year.

Freako: "All signs are hinting towards continual improvement. I would consider."

Beware pre-season hype!
1) it was a 40 minute practice match
2) McVeigh and JPK didn't play
3) It was only players on the Sydney list, ergo, they were forced to make TWO sets of Mids from their list, with the above players missing. Someone had to get that Mid time! The fact that Rampe was one of them, doesn't make him any more likely to play Mid, than the other 5 or 6 players that played Mid in that game, that don't normally.
4) As demonstrated above, a lot of the progression he has made, has been TOG progression, and he has pretty much tapped that out now.

There was plenty of talk about Rampe in midfield about this time last year, but luckily enough I had the foresight to pick Lumumba instead.

You just made me laugh.

Jaca I have seen you mention on several SCS threads that you to your considerable despair you picked Lumumba last year. It is clear that this decision has burnt a hole in your SC soul. Do you think you will ever recover? Will time be your best chance of healing?

Or are you standing downwind from a carcass, and like the smell, it will just never go away?

PS You made me laugh as well.

 

[Rowsus]

Kurt Tippett

Season - 20 games at 89.6 (2014 11 games at 75.4)
SCG - 7 games at 86.1 (SCG wins 5 at 91.8, SCG 2 losses at 72.0)
ANZ - 3 games at 60.0 (ANZ wins 2 at 65.5, ANZ 1 losses at 49.0)
Spotless - 1 games at 157.0 (Spotless wins 1 at 157.0, Spotless losses 0 at 0.0)
Interstate - 9 games at 94.8 (Interstate wins 7 at 100.4, Interstate losses 2 at 75.0)
Wins - 15 games at 96.7
Losses - 5 games at 68.6

Of note...
First, let's state the obvious. Tippett will be close to 29 when the season starts, and hasn't played 22 games since his 2nd and 3rd season. He's never had a 90+ season, with 2013's 89.8 and 2015's 89.6 his best returns. If you start with him, you're taking him in at close to a career high price. It all sounds like you'd be crazy to start with him.
Now let's look at the flipside, and try and convince you he is worth having. He is a R/F now, and that alone adds interest. There was a definite line in the sand in Sydney's 2015 season. That line seemed to be drawn after Round14:

Rnds 1 - 14
M Pyke 12 games, 85.7 TOG%, 32.4 Hitouts, 1.4 Marks, 0.1 Goals, 66.6 SC
K Tippett 12 games, 82.7 TOG%, 13.8 Hitouts, 3.3 Marks, 1.8 Goals, 76.4 SC
Rnds 15 - 23
M Pyke 6 games, 77.7 TOG%, 16.7 Hitouts, 2.8 Marks, 0.5 Goals, 60.5 SC
K Tippett 8 games, 84.6 TOG%, 23.5 Hitouts, 4.6 Marks, 2.1 Goals, 109.5 SC

Tippett started spending much more time in the Ruck, but his goal count didn't suffer. I've always said, tall players need hitouts, or 3 goals/game. In those last 8 games, Tippett managed to combine them both well. If Pyke was still there, most of us might take a punt on Tippett as our R/F pick. It has all the appearance of a career/role change, something like Salmon all those years ago. But Pyke is gone, and Sinclair is there now. Tippett has expressed a desire to have more Ruck time, and how the arrival of Sinclair will impact that desire, is (one of) the $50,000 question(s)!

 

[Rowsus]

Lance Franklin

Season - 17 games at 87.1 (2014 19 games at 99.1)
SCG - 6 games at 83.2 (SCG wins 4 at 91.3, SCG 2 losses at 67.0)
ANZ - 3 games at 93.7 (ANZ wins 2 at 104.5, ANZ 1 losses at 72.0)
Spotless - 0 games at 0.0 (Spotless wins 0 at 0.0, Spotless losses 0 at 0.0)
Interstate - 8 games at 87.6 (Interstate wins 7 at 86.0, Interstate losses 1 at 99.0)
Wins - 13 games at 90.5
Losses - 4 games at 76.3

Of note...
I've read a few "I'll just see how Buddy goes" type comments on the site in the last month or so. I think that is crazy, given his scoring patterns, and missed games patterns. He plays more games, and scores more points early in the season, than he does late in the season. Lets break his last 6 seasons up into the first 11 games of the season, and the second 11 games of the season.

As we can see, aside from 2010, he plays more games in the first half of the season, and aside from 2014, he scores/averages more points in the first half of the season. He's the one player you pretty much know you don't want as an upgrade target, as he always misses games late in the season, especially late in the season. Looking at Round 14, and beyond, the games missed counting back from 2015 are: 5, 2, 3, 6, 2, 1. If you are going to get benefit from him, it is usually early on.
Given he is so cheaply priced this season, I can only see three possible courses of action with Buddy.
1) Start him. Sydney have a friendly draw at the start of the season. Jump on. Take advantage.
2) Decide you will resist him all season. It's no good waiting to see if he's the Buddy of old. If you think he's a 20 games at 95/game player this season, and he busts out a couple of 130's in the first 3 games, are you suddenly going to re-assess him as a 110/game player? History has shown how knee-jerk re-assessments can be very bad Things to do! Even if you re-assess him to be 20 games at 100, you've missed the cream now, and if you are right he will only average 97 from here, with the missed games still to come!
3) Take him as a fall back position, if you suffer an early LTI. You can watch his early games, and make the sideways jump if one of your Premiums goes down.

 

[Rowsus]

Matt Priddis

Season - 22 games at 113.3 (2014 22 games at 112.7)
Home - 12 games at 118.0 (Home wins 10 at 122.1, Home losses 2 at 97.5)
Away - 10 games at 107.6 (Away wins 6 at 113.3, Away 4 losses at 99.0)
Wins - 16 games at 118.8
Losses - 6 games at 98.5

Of note...
Remarkably consistent performer, with 4 of his last 5 seasons being 110+, and reasonable excuses for the season he missed the 110+. He scores markedly better in wins, probably more so than the average genuine Mid Premium. He also can score a bit lower if NicNat is missing, or not having a good game for Hitouts. This occured 5 times in 2015, 3 of these games were losses, and two were wins. The break up above says we should expect him to average 106.6 over 3 losing games and 2 winning games, but the 5 games with a poor performance or a no show from NicNat resulted in a 93.8 average for Priddis.
The Eagles have a really tough start to the season, and given Priddis scores higher in wins, it might be best to catch him if/when he falls in price. Certainly the 2nd half of the season looks slightly easier for them.
Rnd 1 - Brisbane at Domain
Rnd 2 - Hawthorn at MCG
Rnd 3 - Fremantle at Domain
Rnd 4 - Richmond at Domain
Rnd 5 - Sydney at SCG
Rnd 6 - Collingwood at Domain
Rnd 7 - Geelong at Simonds
Rnd 8 - St Kilda at Domain
Rnd 9 - Port Adelaide at AO
With 5 toughish games in the first 9, it is quite conceivable the Eagles might start 4/5 in the first 9 Rounds.

They may be tough games, but 5 of those 9 are at home where he averages well. I love his consistency and really tempted to just set and forget this year.

Priddis only averaged 98 in losing games at Domain. They could lose 2 of those first 5 home games.

 

[Rowsus]

Nicholas Naitanui (FTB)

Season - 20 games at 103.9 (2014 20 games at 90.8)
Home - 10 games at 114.2 (Home wins 9 at 118.3, Home losses 1 at 77.0)
Away - 10 games at 93.6 (Away wins 6 at 102.8, Away 4 losses at 79.8)
Wins - 15 games at 112.1
Losses - 5 games at 79.2

Of note...
Amazingly, I've seen any number of people mention how they are shying away from Jacobs, because he has FTB tendencies, and Adelaide have a tough early draw. Funnily enough, many of those same coaches have said they will start with NicNat. To me, his situation looks very similar to Jacobs, and I would think it would be hard to start with either. Let's look at a possible worst case scenario, and assume WC lose the red games in the Priddis post above. What is Nicnat's scoring history in these scenarios?
Rnd 1 - Brisbane at Domain Rnd 18 2012 is the last time WC played Brisbane in WA, and WC won by 98. NicNat scored 164 that day, and he has scored 108 (in a loss), 102, 86 and 83 in games at the Gabba. We're looking at worst case scenarios, so let's give him 90 in a win here.
Rnd 2 - Hawthorn at MCG 64 in the GF last year, and 100 in QF win at domain, missed the Rnd 19 game at Domain. 116 in a loss at Aurora in 2014, 114 in a loss at Etihad in 2013, 109 in an MCG loss and 102 in a Domain win 2012. Worst case scenario could see a GF similar 70 in a loss.
Rnd 3 - Fremantle at Domain His scores against Fremantle, counting backwards to 2012 are: 77, 76, 54, 69, 81, 94. Let's give him a 70 and move on.
Rnd 4 - Richmond at Domain 2015 he scored 146 in a win at the MCG, 2014 111 in a loss at Domain, 2013 104 in a Domain loss, 2012 112 in an Etihad win. He likes playing Richmond, interesting the away team seems to win these matches. Worst case gives him 95 which isn't too bad
Rnd 5 - Sydney at SCG 2015 he got 103 in a big win at Domain, 78 in a Domain loss in 2013, 66 in a Domain loss in 2012. We have to go all the way back to 2010 to find a SCG game, and he scored 57.He struggles against Sydney 70 doesn't seem out of the question.
Rnd 6 - Collingwood at Domain 2015 saw 100 in a Etihad win, 2014 100 in a big win at Domain and 80 in a MCG loss, 2012 163 in a thumping Domain win, and 76 in a close loss at the MCG He's up and down, let's say 100 in a win.
Rnd 7 - Geelong at Simonds 2015 152 in a big Domain win, 2014 27 (TOG% 50) in a thrashing at Simonds, 2012 153 in a close win at Domain If they win, he's big, if they lose, he sucks 80 and a loss at Simonds
Rnd 8 - St Kilda at Domain 133 in a Domain win and 103 in an Etihad win in 2015, 95 and 63 in Etihad and Domain wins in 2014, 109 in an Etihad win for 2013, 108 in a Domain win in 2012. Let's repeat his 95 from 2014.
Rnd 9 - Port Adelaide at AO 77 in a AO win in 2015, 107 in a Domain loss in 2014, 94 in an AAMI win in 2012. Not great numbers against Port. Let's say 80 in a loss.

So worst case scenario has him starting: 90, 70, 70, 95, 70, 100, 80, 95, 80 - Ave 83.3
Ok, that's a pretty grim worst case scenario. Let's look at it another way. It really isn't beyond the realms of possibility that WC will start 4 wins and 5 losses. Using his average in wins and losses from his table above, we get:
4 x 112 + 5 x 79 = 843 points, or Ave 93.7.
Either way, you'd want to be bullish about WC winning some of those tough early games, if you are going to start NicNat in 2016.