Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[happydays]

Hi Rowsus,

One question for me.
What expectations - and planning if possible - should we have (and make) for our D7?
I currently have MacKenzie in and out of my team, but do not mind him in for an eventual D7 position.

Similarly, can we look at Aish + L Mcdonald the same way?
Ie, if you have a little extra cash and can afford a mid 250k defender whilst not wanting the additional funds for a rookie downgrade/further upgrade elsewhere....can we look at this at out un-upgraded D7 (loophole and injury cover)?

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

One question for me.
What expectations - and planning if possible - should we have (and make) for our D7?
I currently have MacKenzie in and out of my team, but do not mind him in for an eventual D7 position.

Similarly, can we look at Aish + L Mcdonald the same way?
Ie, if you have a little extra cash and can afford a mid 250k defender whilst not wanting the additional funds for a rookie downgrade/further upgrade elsewhere....can we look at this at out un-upgraded D7 (loophole and injury cover)?

Hi happydays,
in my mind, nobody should be planning for D7,M9,R3,F7 until they have completed, or near completed their starting line up. Any extra cash you have now should be used to upgrade to better Prems, or go towards your first upgrade earlyish in the season. Taking E Mackenzie for $243,400 would seem to be wasteful, and extravagant. In rough terms, when we pick our initial squad, we are trying to get 1 point for every $5,000 we spend. If you start E Mackenzie, who won't score that much better than a Def Rookie, you are using $120k that could be used elsewhere. That's around 24 points, and over a course of a season, around 500 points. Ask yourself, will this plan with Mackenzie get/save me 500 points? Given Mackenzie is a 70-75/week player, at best according to his history, I have severe doubts. Put all your planning and cash into your initial team, and only worry about how your bench looks for coverage, when you know how the rest of your team is looking near completion.

 

[TeeButOne]

G'day Rowsus,

I'm really keen on selecting at least 1 of the following 3, and would love your thoughts on the riskiness of the picks:

T. Mitchell
O. Wines
D. Shiel

For various reasons (mainly from green / red vests & injuries), I believe all 3 have the capacity to be MID keepers, with the ability to average 110+. However, I'd love your opinion.

 

[Blue Dragons]

Hey Mike, welcome back.

1 - I am running with Max King too. From a season long point of view, Melbourne would seem to offer the best R/F loophole link. I'm of the opinion that Max is more likely to get a game than Mitch, and while both are very unlikely, it just seems logical to pick the one that is more likely to get a game, just in case.

2 - I am considering running both Tippett and Grimley. The thing to keep in mind is, that Tippett is being viewed as a season long selection, and Grimley as a temporary Cash Cow. While Ruck problems can strike at anytime, the further we get into the season, the more likely they are to strike. Grimley is a good chance to be gone from your team, when you need a R/F for cover!

Thanks

Yeah good call didnt even think of it that way. His time spent in the ruck yesterday was promising.

Im sure ill be back soon for some more questions!

 

[Rowsus]

G'day Rowsus,

I'm really keen on selecting at least 1 of the following 3, and would love your thoughts on the riskiness of the picks:

T. Mitchell
O. Wines
D. Shiel

For various reasons (mainly from green / red vests & injuries), I believe all 3 have the capacity to be MID keepers, with the ability to average 110+. However, I'd love your opinion.

G'day TBO,
you can make a case for having any one of them, or all 3 of them!
I currently have Mitchell in my team, but have had both Shiels and Wines there at different times. The analysis I did in 2016: Rowsus Tables And Analysis Of 2015 Season showed that Mitchell, when playing with all the gun Sydney Mids, is outscoring them on a SC/100%TOG basis. That was enough for me to take the risk on him. I can certainly understand anyone who wants one or more of these guys in their team. Currently my order would be Mitchell, Wines, Shiel, but there isn't a lot in it! There is certainly risk involved with all 3, but I'm confident the worst result will be an M8 trap, scoring low 100's, instead of the at least 107-108 you'd like.

 

[TeeButOne]

G'day TBO,
you can make a case for having any one of them, or all 3 of them!
I currently have Mitchell in my team, but have had both Shiels and Wines there at different times. The analysis I did in 2016: Rowsus Tables And Analysis Of 2015 Season showed that Mitchell, when playing with all the gun Sydney Mids, is outscoring them on a SC/100%TOG basis. That was enough for me to take the risk on him. I can certainly understand anyone who wants one or more of these guys in their team. Currently my order would be Mitchell, Wines, Shiel, but there isn't a lot in it! There is certainly risk involved with all 3, but I'm confident the worst result will be an M8 trap, scoring low 100's, instead of the at least 107-108 you'd like.

Rowsus,

Appreciate your thoughts. Yes, I had read your comments on Mitchell, although I was already REALLY keen on him before then (averaged 113 without the 2 vests last year, and a really good St. Dev.).

I would also rank them in that order also, and I agree that, worst-case scenario for any of them would be an M8 spot.

However, I suppose my question really is ... would it be too much of a risk picking 2 (or all 3) of them?

 

[GrainFedBeef]

G'day TBO,
you can make a case for having any one of them, or all 3 of them!
I currently have Mitchell in my team, but have had both Shiels and Wines there at different times. The analysis I did in 2016: Rowsus Tables And Analysis Of 2015 Season showed that Mitchell, when playing with all the gun Sydney Mids, is outscoring them on a SC/100%TOG basis. That was enough for me to take the risk on him. I can certainly understand anyone who wants one or more of these guys in their team. Currently my order would be Mitchell, Wines, Shiel, but there isn't a lot in it! There is certainly risk involved with all 3, but I'm confident the worst result will be an M8 trap, scoring low 100's, instead of the at least 107-108 you'd like.

Rowsus,

Appreciate your thoughts. Yes, I had read your comments on Mitchell, although I was already REALLY keen on him before then (averaged 113 without the 2 vests last year, and a really good St. Dev.).

I would also rank them in that order also, and I agree that, worst-case scenario for any of them would be an M8 spot.

However, I suppose my question really is ... would it be too much of a risk picking 2 (or all 3) of them?

Not sure how to read into Tom Mitchell's NAB cup Game.

Positives is Callum Mills not going to take away his mid time, playing off HB. His Disposals per 100% was 37 which is amazing, and all the Syd mids played.

Negatives is desire to go handball first, 2.2 HB:Kick ratio. His DE 58% is lowish for a handball happy player and his CP% sub 40% and 5 clangers.

Continues to gain the ball at will, has the stats of an outside player but the execution of an inside player under pressure.

I have Wines and will see how he progresses through NAB cup, however, I wonder if its too much of a risk having any of these players if you have Libba in the side. Noted Rowsus I think you dont have Libba and now completely understand why. Mitchell, Wines, Shiel and Libba could all be 110 players or all could be M8 traps (100), however, if you have more than one TBO, you have a risk of M6-8 traps weakening your team or if they come off you probably go top 250. If I am going to go one only, the Libba for me given price.

 

[BC]

Hi Row. Tippet set to the bargain fwd you can't afford not to start?
Would love your thoughts as i recall he was in your plans early on

 

[Brettthejett]

Hi Row

A quick question on Dangerfield.

With him moving to Geelong how will he be affected by not having a Premium ruck hitting the ball down his throat?
Im guessing he will prob attend more centre bounces than he prob did last year at Adelaide also??

Cheers BTJ

 

[Prochard]

Hi Row

A quick question on Dangerfield.

With him moving to Geelong how will he be affected by not having a Premium ruck hitting the ball down his throat?
Im guessing he will prob attend more centre bounces than he prob did last year at Adelaide also??

Cheers BTJ

One of the major reasons Im opting for Pendlebury over Dangerfield.

 

[Brettthejett]

One of the major reasons Im opting for Pendlebury over Dangerfield.

Can't see Pendles keeping up his mid time with the addition of treloar and return of caff, greenwood to the side. Think he play behind the ball more this year

 

[Prochard]

Hey rowsus, is it good to pick a bargain player and leave some spare change when you can upgrade him to a rightfully prices premium without compromising another line?
Wines in particular, i can upgrade him to fyfe/dangerfield, and if i dont, i wont be able to efficiently use the cash.

 

[Prochard]

Can't see Pendles keeping up his mid time with the addition of treloar and return of caff, greenwood to the side. Think he play behind the ball more this year

The game which he played as a halfback/behind the ball was one of his best game of the season, scoring around 155 i believe. Macaffer is very unlikely to play mid, and greenwood is merely an upgrade on crisp, and thats if he does become best 22. Treloar i think undoubtedly will improve pendles scoees, as the tagging pressures are alleviated.

 

[MC's Mix]

Hey Rowsus,

Not sure if you partake in the draft format of the game, but I have an upcoming draft with some mates this weekend. Just wondering if you can share any insights into players who you believe will step up this year but may not be good enough for the traditional game.

Ie, players who might rise up to say:

Def: 80+
Mid: 95+
Ruck: 90+
Fwd: 85+

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus,

Appreciate your thoughts. Yes, I had read your comments on Mitchell, although I was already REALLY keen on him before then (averaged 113 without the 2 vests last year, and a really good St. Dev.).

I would also rank them in that order also, and I agree that, worst-case scenario for any of them would be an M8 spot.

However, I suppose my question really is ... would it be too much of a risk picking 2 (or all 3) of them?

TBO,
there is probably room for 3 "safer" risks in a well picked team, or two not safe risks, but no more than that. The problem I have is, the Defs and possibly the Forwards are hard to find safe picks in this season. Some people will disagree, and be comfortable they have quite a number of safe picks in those two lines. My suggestion would be, look at your other lines, and see how many risks you have, and what sort of risk they represent, then you'll have your answer as to how many of those three it is safe to start with.

 

[Rowsus]

Not sure how to read into Tom Mitchell's NAB cup Game.

Positives is Callum Mills not going to take away his mid time, playing off HB. His Disposals per 100% was 37 which is amazing, and all the Syd mids played.

Negatives is desire to go handball first, 2.2 HB:Kick ratio. His DE 58% is lowish for a handball happy player and his CP% sub 40% and 5 clangers.

Continues to gain the ball at will, has the stats of an outside player but the execution of an inside player under pressure.

I have Wines and will see how he progresses through NAB cup, however, I wonder if its too much of a risk having any of these players if you have Libba in the side. Noted Rowsus I think you dont have Libba and now completely understand why. Mitchell, Wines, Shiel and Libba could all be 110 players or all could be M8 traps (100), however, if you have more than one TBO, you have a risk of M6-8 traps weakening your team or if they come off you probably go top 250. If I am going to go one only, the Libba for me given price.

The thing to do is, not read too much into any players NAB matches, particularly the first one of the season. That applies for players at all levels, from the top Premiums to the bottom Rookies in NAB Round 1. As the NAB progresses into the 2nd and 3rd Rounds, use it to assess Rookies, and any Midprice risk selections you have. Unless you see something absolutely glaring, don't use them to pick, or not pick, your Premium selections. Remember the Goldstein scare of 2014, when his popularity dropped dramatically on the back of a bad NAB game? I bet those coaches that knee-jerked him out listed it in their big regrets for the season.
As to yesterdays game, attrocious conditions that they won't play in too often. I think the way to look at it is, the good players were just blowing the cobwebs out.
As to Libba, I don't see him as a safe pick. My own opinion is, he is an M8 trap selection. I'd rather get caught with a D6 trap, or F6 trap, than an M8 trap. If I didn't have a couple (or more!) risky selections in my Def line, I would probably take Libba.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Row. Tippet set to the bargain fwd you can't afford not to start?
Would love your thoughts as i recall he was in your plans early on

Hi BC,
no, not all. I can see him being a good pick, but I can't see him turning into a must have. I'm hoping he might turn into a must have though!
But seriously, he'd need to average 100+ to be even considered a must have, and I'm not sure he can do that. I'll be happy with anything 92-93+, if I get to use him as Ruck coverage a few times.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Row

A quick question on Dangerfield.

With him moving to Geelong how will he be affected by not having a Premium ruck hitting the ball down his throat?
Im guessing he will prob attend more centre bounces than he prob did last year at Adelaide also??

Cheers BTJ

Hi Btj,
I think we can over analyse things sometimes. Look at it this way, Jacobs averaged 12.5 H2A's in 2015. When you factor in how many players attend stoppages, which is many players at throw ins and around the ground stoppages, you might find that 2 of those 12.5 went to Dangerfield! If he only gets 1 or 1.5/game this season, has he lost that much?

One of the major reasons Im opting for Pendlebury over Dangerfield.

Can't see Pendles keeping up his mid time with the addition of treloar and return of caff, greenwood to the side. Think he play behind the ball more this year

Playing behind the ball can be Midfield poison, as demonstrated by Cotchin after his good season. A lot of your possessions can be short and sideways, which isn't conducive to good scoring, and you miss out on those bonus points as you are in less scoring chains. Look at what it did to Sidebottoms scoring in many games last season! Having said that, I can see him starting outside the square at Centre bounces, but I can't see him playing half back type roles that much. To me it's along the lines of the perennial "Ablett will play forward this season" scare/waffle. He will still play plenty of Midfield time, and my own expectation is, he will finish with something between about 114 and 119 for the season.

The game which he played as a halfback/behind the ball was one of his best game of the season, scoring around 155 i believe. Macaffer is very unlikely to play mid, and greenwood is merely an upgrade on crisp, and thats if he does become best 22. Treloar i think undoubtedly will improve pendles scoees, as the tagging pressures are alleviated.

I don't think Btj was implying Macaffer would be filling a Mid role as such, but in his Lock Down roles will be attending a lot of stoppages and Centre bounces. Every little bit adds up. It might have already cost Pendles 5 to 8 points/game in 2015, and while I don't have the figures at hand, I'd be willing to bet if you looked at Pendles Centre bounces attended numbers in 2015, that they'd be down on his "traditional" levels. It is just one of the areas I am guessing contributed to his drop off last season. But as I said, I don't have the figures, so it just my best guess.

Maybe someone should send Freako a question on twitter about that?!

 

[Rowsus]

Hey rowsus, is it good to pick a bargain player and leave some spare change when you can upgrade him to a rightfully prices premium without compromising another line?
Wines in particular, i can upgrade him to fyfe/dangerfield, and if i dont, i wont be able to efficiently use the cash.

Hey Pro,
while I'm not a big believer in using leftover cash just because you can, my answer to your question is no, that is not good. I wouldn't plan to do that all. Use as much of your starting funds as you can, as wisely as you can. In this case, I would suggest upgrading Wines to Fyfe/Dangerfield sounds like good use of the money. Unless you think Wines is just as likely to finish a top 4 or 5 Mid as Fyfe/Dangerfield, in that case just sit on the cash. By upgrading Wines you potentially remove the need for a trade, or a potential M8 trap selection. While I think Wines will score at a rate that will make him a Keeper, if you can upgrade him to a safer pick that might score 10-15/week higher, I think you should do it.

 

[Bomber18]

Playing behind the ball can be Midfield poison, as demonstrated by Cotchin after his good season. A lot of your possessions can be short and sideways, which isn't conducive to good scoring, and you miss out on those bonus points as you are in less scoring chains. Look at what it did to Sidebottoms scoring in many games last season! Having said that, I can see him starting outside the square at Centre bounces, but I can't see him playing half back type roles that much. To me it's along the lines of the perennial "Ablett will play forward this season" scare/waffle. He will still play plenty of Midfield time, and my own expectation is, he will finish with something between about 114 and 119 for the season.

I don't think Btj was implying Macaffer would be filling a Mid role as such, but in his Lock Down roles will be attending a lot of stoppages and Centre bounces. Every little bit adds up. It might have already cost Pendles 5 to 8 points/game in 2015, and while I don't have the figures at hand, I'd be willing to bet if you looked at Pendles Centre bounces attended numbers in 2015, that they'd be down on his "traditional" levels. It is just one of the areas I am guessing contributed to his drop off last season. But as I said, I don't have the figures, so it just my best guess.

Maybe someone should send Freako a question on twitter about that?!

Hey Rowsus,
Love your points re: effect of Pendles playing more behind the ball and Danger. I have sent that Q through to Freako, hopefully there's a response! I think you're on the money there.
Looking at Pendles stats in 2015, he had more uncontested (+2.7) but less contested possessions (-2) in 2015 and less clearances (-0.7) compared to 2014. As a result his DT:SC ratio was a lot lower in 2015. What do you make of this?

My current dilemma in my own side is whether to start Pendles or Wines + 100k. The 100k could be used to add a Mills/Duggan type player into my side or improve my D4. My question is, who would you start out of Pendles and Wines?
Thanks!