Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

Not sure if you partake in the draft format of the game, but I have an upcoming draft with some mates this weekend. Just wondering if you can share any insights into players who you believe will step up this year but may not be good enough for the traditional game.

Ie, players who might rise up to say:

Def: 80+
Mid: 95+
Ruck: 90+
Fwd: 85+

Hey MC,
a lot can depend on how deep your draft runs 15 players? 30 players? And how many teams are drafting.
anyway, here are some candidates:
Def: Williams (GWS), Sheridan, Lonergan (GC), - I actually think Suckling could be a good draft pick too, depending how deep your draft runs.
Mid: Newnes, Ross, Gibbs, Zaharakis, Tyson
Ruck: Nichols, Minson
Fwd: Christensen, Cooney, Taylor
As I said, it really depends on how many players in total are being selected in the draft. I think the other thing to do is look for pairings, but only if it is a draft with good bench space. As an example, if you get Deledio, try and get Edwards as a late bench pick. If Deledio misses Edwards usually lifts his game, and might be good coverage while Deledio is out.

Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,
Love your points re: effect of Pendles playing more behind the ball and Danger. I have sent that Q through to Freako, hopefully there's a response! I think you're on the money there.
Looking at Pendles stats in 2015, he had more uncontested (+2.7) but less contested possessions (-2) in 2015 and less clearances (-0.7) compared to 2014. As a result his DT:SC ratio was a lot lower in 2015. What do you make of this?

Hey B18,
what I make of this is, when you're building a house, you don't ask the architect to dig the trenches. Pendles is a great architect, but they've got Adams, Crisp, Treloar, De Goey, Greenwood and even Macaffer to do the grunt work. Let them dig the trenches, and let Pendles stay out of harms way (mostly) and tell them where and how to put things. Rough analogy, but you get the idea.

I'll be interested to see if Freako answers that. Thanks

My current dilemma in my own side is whether to start Pendles or Wines + 100k. The 100k could be used to add a Mills/Duggan type player into my side or improve my D4. My question is, who would you start out of Pendles and Wines?
Thanks!

So even though I have a Black ban on X v Y questions, I will make this one exception.
The equation appears to be:

Pendles + Mid Rookie 6 (as in the 6th, or possibly 5th, one picked)

Vs

Wines + Mills

My answer is upgrade Wines to Pendles, and try to find a way to get Mills anyway!
If you can't, then upgrade Wines to Pendles anyway.

 

[Bomber18]

Hey B18,
what I make of this is, when you're building a house, you don't ask the architect to dig the trenches. Pendles is a great architect, but they've got Adams, Crisp, Treloar, De Goey, Greenwood and even Macaffer to do the grunt work. Let them dig the trenches, and let Pendles stay out of harms way (mostly) and tell them where and how to put things. Rough analogy, but you get the idea.

I'll be interested to see if Freako answers that. Thanks



So even though I have a Black ban on X v Y questions, I will make this one exception.
The equation appears to be:

Pendles + Mid Rookie 6 (as in the 6th, or possibly 5th, one picked)

Vs

Wines + Mills

My answer is upgrade Wines to Pendles, and try to find a way to get Mills anyway!
If you can't, then upgrade Wines to Pendles anyway.

Thanks for the response! Always good having an outside view and apologies I didn't realise you didn't answer X v Y type Qs.
Freako tweeted back that Pendles has been No. 1 for centre bounce attendances in both 2014 and 2015 at Collingwood, but I've asked him again the specific number of attendances in each year.

 

[Plo Koon]

Hey Rowus,

Apologies if you've already covered this somewhere else, but could Dale Thomas be a risk worth taking?

 

[Blue Dragons]

Hey Row,

I have three speculative picks I am looking at and I was hoping to get your view on them..

Sam Gilbert - his past couple of years have been ruined by injury and he hasnt averaged 90+ since 2010 so it is a big ask that he will get back to those levels. What I like is that he has had a big pre season and has been training with the midfield group so he will be getting more time on the ball. He was playing on the ball and starting in the centre square on the weekend until he copped a knee in the back and came off. His numbers last year when he was pushed further up the ground look good - good CPs and tackles. In the 5 games he got 20+ possessions last year his SC average was 99.2. With more mid time I think he could push his disposal average to close to 20 this year.

Daisy Thomas - I havent been burnt by him before so I am taking a closer look at him. He looked to be moving well and kicking with more penetration which is promising. I dont think he will get back to his absolute best but do you think he can become a cheap F6?

Mitch Grigg - Was really looking forward to seeing him play yesterday but he hardly got any game time. With Dangerfield leaving I was looking at him to step in and cement his spot. My big worry with him is whether he actually gets a gig in their best 22.


I also have a non SC related question - do you have anything in that big bag of stats of yours to give me a Coleman medal tip? Not sure if there is anything you can do there but I thought I would ask anyway.

That will do me for a while! Thanks mate.

 

[chels]

Rowsus,

Do you have any concerns about a fit Luke Parker negatively affecting Tom Mitchell being able to move into that 110+ premium bracket?
I feel Mitchell would do fine along side JPK & Hanners but if you throw Parker in there it might be a bit much?
Cheers, Rob.

Could I suggest you have a look at page 6 of the thread "2016: Rowsus Tables And Analysis Of 2015 Season." There is almost everything you could ever want on this question there.

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks for the response! Always good having an outside view and apologies I didn't realise you didn't answer X v Y type Qs.
Freako tweeted back that Pendles has been No. 1 for centre bounce attendances in both 2014 and 2015 at Collingwood, but I've asked him again the specific number of attendances in each year.

Thanks for that. I hope Freako comes back with the numbers!

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowus,

Apologies if you've already covered this somewhere else, but could Dale Thomas be a risk worth taking?

Hey PK,
could he? Yes.
Will he? Probably not.
Some will be hoping fitness and a new Coach will get him back to close to his 94/game - 109/game seasons of 2010, 2011 and 2012. Don't forget, Collingwood had 17, 20 and 16 wins in those seasons that Thomas scored well! It would take me by surprise if he can get back to the 90's, and play 18+ games.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Row,

I have three speculative picks I am looking at and I was hoping to get your view on them..

Sam Gilbert - his past couple of years have been ruined by injury and he hasnt averaged 90+ since 2010 so it is a big ask that he will get back to those levels. What I like is that he has had a big pre season and has been training with the midfield group so he will be getting more time on the ball. He was playing on the ball and starting in the centre square on the weekend until he copped a knee in the back and came off. His numbers last year when he was pushed further up the ground look good - good CPs and tackles. In the 5 games he got 20+ possessions last year his SC average was 99.2. With more mid time I think he could push his disposal average to close to 20 this year.

Hey Mike,
I'm not saying he can't do it, but I do think he's a huge risk. Most obviously, his game count in the last 3 seasons: 9, 6, 11. Secondly, it would appear just on the surface of it, some of those games were quite generous in their SC:disposals ratio. 21 to 23 disposals for 116, 109 and 100 is a little higher ratio than we'd normally suspect. Lastly, moves like this sound good, but rarely become permanent. If the opposition have a tallish player in the Forward line causing problems, who is the first person to get dragged from on-ball duties to mind him? Gilbert. He might play 18+ games, and he might average 90+, but I don't want to back him for either.

Daisy Thomas - I havent been burnt by him before so I am taking a closer look at him. He looked to be moving well and kicking with more penetration which is promising. I dont think he will get back to his absolute best but do you think he can become a cheap F6?

No. I don't think he can. See post #5348 above.

Mitch Grigg - Was really looking forward to seeing him play yesterday but he hardly got any game time. With Dangerfield leaving I was looking at him to step in and cement his spot. My big worry with him is whether he actually gets a gig in their best 22.

Grigg has been on the edge of breaking out since his debut season in 2013, where he played 5 games at the end of the season for: 29, 96, 90, 109, 89. You answered your own query, in that he has really struggled to be best 22 since then, and a few have gone past him in the last 2 seasons. No use taking a risky player, if the biggest part of the risk is the player even getting selected!

I also have a non SC related question - do you have anything in that big bag of stats of yours to give me a Coleman medal tip? Not sure if there is anything you can do there but I thought I would ask anyway.

That will do me for a while! Thanks mate.

Nothing in my bag of stats, but I can give you some advice. There are probably only 5 or 6 genuine chances, and the best thing to do is, look at their draws. For example, JJK is probably favourite in most markets, but has a tough early draw, so is likely to drift in betting in the first 5 or 6 rounds. Franklin has an easyish draw, and could firm, etc. Keep an eye on their coming games, and bet accordingly. It can be a good market to get involved in backing and laying on Betfair!

 

[Maso]

Hey Rowsus, im not going to ask you the yearly question as i dont want to know the answer when your always dam spot on !! my question is and sorry if you have answered already will D.Shiel be a 110+ keeper with treloar gone ? started with a bang last year with 5x 119+ scores in the 1st 8 games

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus, im not going to ask you the yearly question as i dont want to know the answer when your always dam spot on !! my question is and sorry if you have answered already will D.Shiel be a 110+ keeper with treloar gone ? started with a bang last year with 5x 119+ scores in the 1st 8 games

Hey Maso,
my crystal ball says Shiel will look like a very good pick for a chunk of the season, but will fall short of 110+ area. Might still fill a cheap M7/8 role though.
As to the question you won't ask........... the answer is, not as bad as last season, but you will be left at the death thinking "Oh no, it's happened again!".

 

[Brettthejett]

Hey Maso,
my crystal ball says Shiel will look like a very good pick for a chunk of the season, but will fall short of 110+ area. Might still fill a cheap M7/8 role though.
As to the question you won't ask........... the answer is, not as bad as last season, but you will be left at death thinking "Oh no, it's happened again!".

Im guessing this is relating to MASO and his use of trades, or lack there of trades from rd 18 onwards

 

[THCLT]

Hey Maso,
my crystal ball says Shiel will look like a very good pick for a chunk of the season, but will fall short of 110+ area. Might still fill a cheap M7/8 role though.
As to the question you won't ask........... the answer is, not as bad as last season, but you will be left at death thinking "Oh no, it's happened again!".

Im guessing this is relating to MASO and his use of trades, or lack there of trades from rd 18 onwards

Poor Maso...I've got your back mate if that counts!

 

[Rowsus]

Im guessing this is relating to MASO and his use of trades, or lack there of trades from rd 18 onwards

Poor Maso...I've got your back mate if that counts!

That would be correct!

 

[Maso]

oh bother :| lol

 

[KLo30]

 

[PC]

Never understood the peanut strips - doesn't that just make her a *****?

 

[lappinitup]

Rowsus seems to have done a complete run down of nearly every player - can anyone direct me to his thoughts on Montagna/Bennell and Motlop?

If they haven't been done - can you talk me out of them please Rowsus! Too risky to believe they will all be top 10 forwards this year? Considering Tippet is in the forward line already, looks a little too speculative, just don't know which ones to ax!

 

[OnePercenters]

All found here: http://www.supercoachscores.com/threads/2766-Rowsus-Tables-And-Analysis-Of-2015-Season

Bennell:

harley bennell

season - 15 games at 101.7 (2014 15 games at 95.7)
home - 6 games at 111.8 (home wins 2 at 124.0, home losses 4 at 105.8)
gabba - 1 game at 93.0 (gabba wins 1 at 93.0, gabba losses 0 at 0.0)
away - 8 games at 95.1 (away wins 0 at 0.0, away 8 losses at 95.1)
wins - 3 games at 113.7
losses - 12 games at 98.7

of note...
of interest value only, as he has changed clubs.
Even if he hadn't changed clubs, he would be hard to assess, as the injuries to gc's mids in 2015 would make it impossible to define his role for the coming season. He averaged less than 80 when playing in a team that got thrashed interstate, but that shouldn't happen too often from here. Similarly, he averaged 120 in games they didn't lose, that were played in queensland. I think he will be super keen to show his new club that he was a good trade, but that first year eagerness usually only lasts exactly that, the first year! Watch his preseason for what role he plays, and pray he keeps his dpp!

motlop:

steven motlop

season - 20 games at 88.1 (2014 15 games at 80.9)
home - 7 games at 95.6 (home wins 5 at 91.4, home losses 2 at 106.0)
mcg - 5 games at 78.6 (mcg wins 2 at 94.0, mcg losses 3 at 68.3)
etihad - 4 games at 83.3 (etihad wins 2 at 72.5, etihad losses 2 at 94.0)
away - 4 games at 91.8 (away wins 2 at 106.0, away losses 2 at 77.5)
wins - 11 games at 91.1
losses - 9 games at 84.4

of note...
6 scores between 115 and 147, but no scores between 99 and 114!!! Add in 7 scores of 70 or less, and you have a player that can burn really brightly, but can also be colder than a mother-in-law's stare! It's the bennell factor all over again, but at least bennell's low's are between 70 and 90, not: 26, 39, 41, 49, 64, 68, 70 (ave 51!) type scores! There's nothing you can put it down to, it's just looks like he isn't interested enough sometimes. He will have his hot streak, where he scores 3 120+'s in a 6 or 7 week period, and you'll wish you had him, but i'm pretty sure outside of that, you will be glad you didn't have him. He's not a season long prospect, and it's too hard to guess when that hot streak might come.

montagna:

leigh montagna

season - 17 games at 111.0 (2014 20 games at 89.4)
mcg - 1 games at 71.0 (mcg wins 1 at 71.0, mcg losses 1 at 0.0)
etihad - 11 games at 113.9 (etihad wins 3 at 122.7, etihad losses 8 at 110.6)
interstate - 5 games at 112.6 (interstate wins 1 at 117.0, interstate losses 4 at 111.5)
wins - 5 games at 111.2
losses - 12 games at 110.9

of note...
extraordinarily consistent, with only 4 of his 17 scores below 100. Between 2006 and 2014 montagna only missed 8 games in 9 years, so the fact that he missed 5 last season is either an aberration, or proof that age is finally catching up with him. He has averaged higher than his 111 price tag in 3 of the last 6 seasons, but only once in the last 3 seasons. If you are looking for a reason to maybe not start montagna in your forward line, as you think he might get a little cheaper, maybe this will help. In the last 3 seasons, montagna has scored 110+ scores in 47% of his games played on small and medium sized grounds, but only in 22% of his games played on large grounds. In round 3 he has collingwood at the mcg, and round 4 hawthorn at aurora, both large grounds. Nothing will drop a players price quicker than a couple of consecutive low(er) scores. Throw in port at adelaide oval in round 1, and i am happy to start without montagna, and wait and see if this starting draw doesn't drop his price a little. By my rough calculations, if montagna starts 90, 110, 90, 90 he will be down to $550k, with a b/e of 146 coming into round 5.

 

[lappinitup]

Cheers 1%er!

Knew it would be somewhere.

That almost talks me in to Bennell and Montagna, and out of Motlop. Which is interesting, as with Geelong's easy draw, addition of another taggable player/ball winner. He was almost my first picked of the three.

By seasons start, at least one of them will be gone, potentially two if forwards rookies all come to fruition.